Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Medium size value (+interest) bet.

York City in League 2 to make the top 7 (play-offs or above)

14/1

6 points off the play-offs currently on 34 points, 7th has 40. Beat Burton 3-0 yesterday.  Positive manager in Gary Mills, talks well and building good foundations there.

Lots of clubs competing in this league, little between 10-12 teams in the middle of the league and whoever strings some results together will make up positions 5/6/7.  Saw them at Fleetwood on saturday, well organised and should have won against a good side. Two attacking players currently out injured too in Chambers & Coulson.

Finished last season strongly with two wembley appearances so hopefully can repeat the 'after xmas' showing.

Price is wrong, should be 7/1 - 8/1 ish.

£25/£30 would be fine.

Where is the 14s Chip?

[TheChipPrince]

BetVictor mate

[Simon Galloway]

Cheltenham.

Salivating already.  (That's the bookies, realising I am getting involved.)

I have never quite worked out the whole multiple entry/intended route puzzle for Chelts but it must surely be the secret to unlocking a lot of ante-post value?  Plenty of horses are 10/1 in 2 races where the target race is uncertain, where presumably someone somewhere knows they are getting 10/1 about a 5/1 shot (i.o.w. they KNOW the target race)  A bit later in the season, TML etc start interviewing trainers and asking the questions, but now would be the time to capture it if possible.

I'm sure plenty of horsey-types can pick the bones out of the form and plenty of others can pick the bones out of the logic, but Bob's Worth is going to be my biggest interest.  It won the RSA last year (despite having to carry my money around) and again in the Hennessey last month.  So whilst I don't usually subscribe to "the horse owes me nothing" ~ I do have a soft spot for it for sure.  It also took care of Tidal Bay by 3 or 4 lengths when eased down and TB never any nearer (I realise TB is usually produced late, but it was given a much harder ride than Bob's Worth was)  Bob's Worth a 7 year old only just having shed his novice tag likely to have more upside on "improvement" than TB as an 11 year old, although TB ofc recently ratified (as much as Grp1 stuff ever needs ratifying) the performance when winning the Lexus.

So, I'm on Bob's Worth for the Gold Cup at bigger prices than currently available (not meant to be an aftertime, I did mention it pre-Lexus) and partly as a result of enjoying the MVG gravy train and partly as a way of keeping myself out of trouble until March I'm sure I will be going in again several times at a variety of prices, where the average price will almost certainly be considerably better than SP.  Obv Bob's Worth now gets withdrawn 3 days before the race...

Nothing there then as a tip for Fred, I like nothing more than having a decent slice on something at 33/1 ante-post but this year, my Cheltenham will be almost entirely in the hands of Barry Geraghty.  I also have Flemenstar for the Ryanair, but not even sure if it will go to post.  Everything else, for me at least, will have to wait until the target races are better identified.

[LeedsRhodesy]

Medium size value (+interest) bet.

York City in League 2 to make the top 7 (play-offs or above)

14/1

6 points off the play-offs currently on 34 points, 7th has 40. Beat Burton 3-0 yesterday.  Positive manager in Gary Mills, talks well and building good foundations there.

Lots of clubs competing in this league, little between 10-12 teams in the middle of the league and whoever strings some results together will make up positions 5/6/7.  Saw them at Fleetwood on saturday, well organised and should have won against a good side. Two attacking players currently out injured too in Chambers & Coulson.

Finished last season strongly with two wembley appearances so hopefully can repeat the 'after xmas' showing.

Price is wrong, should be 7/1 - 8/1 ish.

£25/£30 would be fine.

Where is the 14s Chip?

Not to sure about the York bet they still have a few very hard away games to come  just looking at the next 4 games I would guess they would only pick up 3 points  and maybe only 6 points in feb

[TheChipPrince]

Fixtures smixtures, all teams have roughly played each once and the two teams they've played twice are Fleetwood & Chesterfield, two of the better sides.

Course its not a bet that cops often, but its a better shot than 7% for sure.

[tikay]

Medium size value (+interest) bet.

York City in League 2 to make the top 7 (play-offs or above)

14/1

6 points off the play-offs currently on 34 points, 7th has 40. Beat Burton 3-0 yesterday.  Positive manager in Gary Mills, talks well and building good foundations there.

Lots of clubs competing in this league, little between 10-12 teams in the middle of the league and whoever strings some results together will make up positions 5/6/7.  Saw them at Fleetwood on saturday, well organised and should have won against a good side. Two attacking players currently out injured too in Chambers & Coulson.

Finished last season strongly with two wembley appearances so hopefully can repeat the 'after xmas' showing.

Price is wrong, should be 7/1 - 8/1 ish.

£25/£30 would be fine.

Thanks Dwayne.

Accommodated with alacrity.

For those not aware, any football tip from Chip Prince should be carefully considered (imo), the guy knows the game inside out, & last I heard, he was scouting for several League Clubs. Does not mean he is always right, of course, but I suspect he has spotted some value here, & we are on.  

It is not nailed on by any measure, 14/1 shots rarely are, but deffo worth a small interest imo.

We have £30 @ 14/1 (BetVictor) York City to finish in the Top 7 of League Two this season.

ON

Bet(s) Confirmed
You have successfully placed 1 bet(s)

Total possible returns 450.00

Bet Receipt Single Selections
Top Seven Finish
York City
(To Make The Top 7)
Odds:  14/1
Stake:  30.00
Possible Return:  450.00

[tikay]

Further to post yesterday, now the dust has settled.

Having taken on board a few of the comments, my proposal would be a small yankee based around horses we are pretty certain this is their sole objective. I also seemed to have engineered a team with lots of "been there, done that" about them, always a good starting point. Finally, I think all these horses will start considerably shorter on the day, assuming we get traditional festival ground, having look like they are all being prepared with the festival as the sole aim

Rock on Ruby- Champion Hurdle 10-1
Sir Des Champs- Gold Cup 7-1
Boston Bob- RSA 10-1
Champion Court-Ryanair 10-1

These are the best mix and match at, surprisingly, Sadjokes.

Yes, I am sure we all have fancies in each of the races, but each have solid ew credentials, and as I have said, it is their sole target, and all have festival winning form bar Champion Court, who finished a worthy second to SDC last year, and at the distance of his intended race was going as well as aanything in the recent King George.


Happy to discuss alternatives, but recomend a smal £1 ew yankee to Fred, if no pushback on selections

Good start Mr Adz, thank you.

My only concern would be to have some "singles", rather than, or as well as, the Yankee. I don't much like Yankees.........

Anyway, let us see what feedback arrives, & we will try & get started on the Chelters stuff this week.

If no feedback either way, we'll still have a bet though.

[superwomble]

Medium size value (+interest) bet.

York City in League 2 to make the top 7 (play-offs or above)

14/1

6 points off the play-offs currently on 34 points, 7th has 40. Beat Burton 3-0 yesterday.  Positive manager in Gary Mills, talks well and building good foundations there.

Lots of clubs competing in this league, little between 10-12 teams in the middle of the league and whoever strings some results together will make up positions 5/6/7.  Saw them at Fleetwood on saturday, well organised and should have won against a good side. Two attacking players currently out injured too in Chambers & Coulson.

Finished last season strongly with two wembley appearances so hopefully can repeat the 'after xmas' showing.

Price is wrong, should be 7/1 - 8/1 ish.

£25/£30 would be fine.

Thanks Dwayne.

Accommodated with alacrity.

For those not aware, any football tip from Chip Prince should be carefully considered (imo), the guy knows the game inside out, & last I heard, he was scouting for several League Clubs. Does not mean he is always right, of course, but I suspect he has spotted some value here, & we are on.  

It is not nailed on by any measure, 14/1 shots rarely are, but deffo worth a small interest imo.

We have £30 @ 14/1 (BetVictor) York City to finish in the Top 7 of League Two this season.

ON

Bet(s) Confirmed
You have successfully placed 1 bet(s)

Total possible returns 450.00

Bet Receipt Single Selections
Top Seven Finish
York City
(To Make The Top 7)
Odds:  14/1
Stake:  30.00
Possible Return:  450.00

York are down to 8/1 now!

[tikay]

^^^^^

I moved a Market!

Others should note that CP said "it is a 7 or 8/1 shot priced at 14/1", so it is no longer a value bet.

[Chompy]

Also far too much theatrics from the Hornets trying to con the referee.  Neuton nearly got a double booking for consecutive dives but the referee thought better of it!  Quite surreal to see your centre back flinging himself around.

13/2 for promotion? Out from 4/1 off the back of one (seemingly excusable defeat). Seems like an over-reaction to me. Will be around 3/1 if they make the play-offs and there's a possible upside in as much as they could go on a Reading-like charge and get it automatically.

I'm on at 12/1 but tempted to go in again. After they get knocked out of the Cup at the weekend, they play Smoggies (A), Hudders (H), Forest (A) and Bolton (H).

[LeedsRhodesy]

Fixtures smixtures, all teams have roughly played each once and the two teams they've played twice are Fleetwood & Chesterfield, two of the better sides.

Course its not a bet that cops often, but its a better shot than 7% for sure.

Plus should like Bradford have put in a bid for  Chambers that would be a big loss for York if he goes

[tikay]

Ho ho

Spacefrog has been to darting party in Amsterdam tonight. Putain! is a good time. Rosbif win this thing, rosbif blondes lose this thing.

These Dutchie say to me 'dash darsch Spacefrog'



Enjoy!

Spacefrog!

We love the Frenchies, especially the rugby playing surrender monkey boys.

Yeah, the rosbif one, but the Dutchy chap did his best.

Post more.

PS - Happy New Year Mr Frog Bloke. Give us a Frenchie tip we can bet on!

[simonnatur]

I hope you'll excuse a couple of quick questions...

Can anyone advise on the best alternative betting exchange to Betfair and if possible their relative merits ?  ( I self excluded from Betfair many moons ago and it seems that is now irreversible )

I also wondered if Fred has ever considered dabbling in spread betting.  Obviously a lot of shrewd judges on here. I'm thinking of recent NBA overs total point bets for example, where we could potentially get greater leverage on a correct call. (not a recommendation by any means, just a question)

[tikay]

I hope you'll excuse a couple of quick questions...

Can anyone advise on the best alternative betting exchange to Betfair and if possible their relative merits ?  ( I self excluded from Betfair many moons ago and it seems that is now irreversible )

I also wondered if Fred has ever considered dabbling in spread betting.  Obviously a lot of shrewd judges on here. I'm thinking of recent NBA overs total point bets for example, where we could potentially get greater leverage on a correct call. (not a recommendation by any means, just a question)

Hi Simon,

I will leave others to answer Part One.

Part two - in short, no.

Many moons ago I got into spread Betting, & it must be said, it is the greatest buzz ever ever ever. The problem (for me) is that is is super-addictive, & I have a weakness for addictive stuff. (Which is why I have never dared touch recreational drugs etc).

First time round, I lost an arm & a leg spread betting, this would be around 12 or 15 years ago I suppose. I was saved from the spreads by Poker funnily enough. From the day I began playing poker, I was completely cured of all my Sports Betting habits, & I never had a bet again, not one. Until February 1st last year, that is, when that dastardly Camel chap caught me in a moment of weakness.

So yes, it would be huge fun, but I'm a bit scared to venture down that road again. With age we eventually learn not to do these painful things for the 3rd or 4th time.....

[Longy]

Re Villa Bet. Lambert showed very little interest in the FA cup in his 3 years at Norwich consistently picking much changed squads, while in the championship we lost at home to Leyton Orient!

Aaron quoted sides are from last year when McCleish was in charge, so are somewhat irrelevant.

Some insider knowledge of what Lambert is thinking massively affects the price here.