Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

The NFC Play-offs

To give some context to The Camel's bets

The Play off seedings are as follows


1 Falcons

2 49ers

3 Packers

4 Redskins

5 Seattle

6 Vikings


The game last night that saw the Vikings and Peterson, notably, beat the Packers was huge for the thread as with the 49ers win it gave them the second seed.

This gives them a bye week, and then a home game in the Divisional round of the play offs


The Wild Card weekend sees

Seattle at Redskins

Vikings at Packers

Atlanta and 49ers host the two winners, with Atlanta hosting the lowest rank seed to qualify


So, the 49ers are probably favourites to host the Packers but if the Vikings win they will host the winner of the Seattle/Redskins game

Personally (and helped by the cornerbacks both being available) the Seahawks might well beat the Redskins and could easily beat Atlanta.....

the NFC odds have the 49ers as favourites

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/nfc/winner


the Superbowl is an interesting market. I think the NFC is a far stronger conference, yet the 49ers are third favourites behind two AFC teams

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/superbowl/winner

Denver are probably justified favourites. Home advantage in their playoffs at altitude is huge, but personally I think the 49ers are a better team than the Patriots or any other AFC team

The Superbowl itself is in a dome in New Orleans and were San Fran to get there they would be no worse than even money in my opinion against any AFC team

Hope that helps

[edgascoigne]

Thanks Tighty.

[Tal]

Thanks Tighty.

Don't take that, Ed. That information was presented last year. you want THIS year's information.

[Bad Beat]

 As a further point on Cheltenham ante-post betting at this early stage without NRNB, we are obviously having a double, or maybe even a treble:

 1> Horse wins at x price on the day.

 2> Horse DOES NOT pull out due to injury, random factor.

 3> Horse DOES NOT go to another race.

 To have value bets at this early stage we need to pick horses that for...

  #1 Will go off much shorter. I think we haven't really picked horses and races where something will improve a stone and go off at 3/1 or less. We have also not picked horses where another animal being a non-runner will MASSIVELY shorten our price (apart from the RSA).

  #2 Will not get injured, face a problem that stops them running. Obviously this is slightly random but it also has a % chance. Can anyone put a % on a horse not running at this stage? If we pick solid horses like RoR who have not shown to be massively fragile we have more chance of running, but for an average 8/1 chance what is the chance of an injury between now and their Festival target in January/February/March? Can anyone put a number on it? Obviously as Cheltenham gets nearer the bookies get the scissors out and my guess is that they shorten everything by too much. I don't know this to be the case though. I'm also sure that sometimes a market goes quiet and they forget that as each week goes by the horses should shorten, just because they still have four legs and eat hay.

 #3 I believe that it is possible to be better than the fixed-odds bookies on knowing which race horses will go to and this is why I quite like ante-post on Cheltenham. There is a lot of information out there and many horses to keep an eye on. Many days the compilers are concentrating on that days racing and by specialising in a couple of races and tracking things daily, you can find good bets, where targets change.

 Another comment I have on Cheltenham betting is that most compilers seem to be morons with regard to NRNB. They just seem to think you can offer it and then go a middle price just under the best price of all the bookies offering all-in run or not. That is a great reason to wait.

 If we are going to go big into Cheltenham maybe we should consider some bets where we think something could really shorten (either because we think it will improve or because the race will really cut up).

 Has anyone got any of those kind of selections?

 I'm not criticizing BigAdz bet as I like it, but it's hard to see Champion Court, RoR or SDC shortening to such a level that we feel like we've had fantastic value when we consider the 2nd leg of the double we had (that it would get there and run). It may be that the real value we had in these selections was that the bookies have allowed too much for that factor and they are big odds-on to show up and go off at 7/1, 7/1 and 5/1 (the RSA is different as our horse could be favourite on the day).

[LeedsRhodesy]

With the villa bet at Evens is great value I can't see them playing a weakens side this Saturday when they have bradford 3 days later if he lost both games it's not looking good for villa but if they but 4/5 past Ipswich and the same vs bradford it's going to build a little bit of comfrence in the side

[DungBeetle]

I haven't kept up with the NFL season for a couple of months but just checked the odds - what has happened to Houston?  When I was watching earlier in the year they were one of the top teams but now available at 20-1.  I assume there is a reason for this (injuries etc)?  And Denver are the nuts now?  Times change fast!

[AndrewT]

Some bedtime reading for Fred.

Back in August someone decided to attack the season interceptions prices for NFL teams using maths.

http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/statistical-inference-and-mathematical_27.html

The results are in - one for the notebook for next year.

http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/statistical-inference-and-mathematical.html

[TightEnd]

I haven't kept up with the NFL season for a couple of months but just checked the odds - what has happened to Houston?  When I was watching earlier in the year they were one of the top teams but now available at 20-1.  I assume there is a reason for this (injuries etc)?  And Denver are the nuts now?  Times change fast!

Form wise, Houston have really gone off the boil. Qualified for the play offs early then lost a few games. They will host a wild card but would be seen as big dogs away to Denver, should it come to it. They might even lose this week. Cincinatti are an excellent team in some sots 

One of the great things about the NFL is a team can go from zero to hero in 1-2 years with good drafting, good free-agency

Obviously for Denver Manning has been huge but it is as much the drafting of defense superstars like Von Miller  that accounts for their quick re-generation

[Tal]

Any reason to question whether Manning will stay fit through the playoffs?

Week off helps of course.

[Horneris]

Any reason to question whether Manning will stay fit through the playoffs?

Week off helps of course.

what?

no

[redarmi]

Any reason to question whether Manning will stay fit through the playoffs?

Week off helps of course.

No reason to question his fitness.  Before he missed all of last year he had a ridiculously good record of playing games so he isn't particularly injury prone and can play through niggles.  In addition to this he isnt a particularly mobile QB so the number of potential injuries that could stop him are less than with someone like RG3.

[The Camel]

Some bedtime reading for Fred.

Back in August someone decided to attack the season interceptions prices for NFL teams using maths.

http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/statistical-inference-and-mathematical_27.html

The results are in - one for the notebook for next year.

http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/statistical-inference-and-mathematical.html

"Someone"?!?!?!?

That someone happens to be the guru of statistical analysis of horse racing James Willoughby.

Tut tut.

[redarmi]

Some bedtime reading for Fred.

Back in August someone decided to attack the season interceptions prices for NFL teams using maths.

http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/statistical-inference-and-mathematical_27.html

The results are in - one for the notebook for next year.

http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/statistical-inference-and-mathematical.html

"Someone"?!?!?!?

That someone happens to be the guru of statistical analysis of horse racing James Willoughby.

Tut tut.

Actually i spent some time earlier this year reading the whole blog and it is superb.  I could serve as an introductory course in everything you need to know about stats as they relate to betting.

[Tal]

Any reason to question whether Manning will stay fit through the playoffs?

Week off helps of course.

No reason to question his fitness.  Before he missed all of last year he had a ridiculously good record of playing games so he isn't particularly injury prone and can play through niggles.  In addition to this he isnt a particularly mobile QB so the number of potential injuries that could stop him are less than with someone like RG3.

Thanks.

Sorry, Horneris. Seemed like a reasonable question as the guy was IIRC released because Indy didn't want to incur a huge wage bill on a player who'd been out for a year. A season is a long time, even from the pocket. Obviously it was a more stupid question than I realised. They often are.

[The Camel]

Anyone fancy the Toon tonight?

Everton look woefully short to me.