Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

 First of all I should say that I don't massively fancy Sir Des Champs or Rock on Ruby for those races and that I haven't really given the RSA much thought, except for to think that the favourite is too short.

 I do love Champion Court for the Ryan Air though and I think that price can't last.

 Despite all that I have checked the four prices on Betfair and Adz has found four horses where you can beat the machine. Whether that simply shows that this horrible organisation have, through total greed, destroyed their ante-post markets by losing all their layers, or whether it means these are great bets I'm not sure, but generally the theory that if you can beat Betfair you should bet blind stands.

 Some other general points to consider...

 Non-runner no bet usually comes in on February 28th, so we have a while to wait until then. There are a few trials between now and then but not that many. I personally wouldn't go mad on Cheltenham until that concession comes in. It should also be noted that WillHill stopped offering that until just four or five days before in 2010. It would be sad if Ladbrokes followed suit, but their general crapness in competing on horseracing prices day-to-day is not a good sign. Another bad sign is that the championship races are currently not NRNB and they have usually been by now.

 At Cheltenham much of the value during the week is picking-off the concessions the firms offer as loss-leaders. Skybet, Betfred, VC, Stan James and Corals offer enhanced place terms on the day, for some events and although none of these firms should appear if you Google bookmaker, a new account can get something on. Whatever we do we mustn't fall into the trap of thinking "big price, must bet each-way". These bets that BigAdz has suggested all look at least neutral ev for the win but at least two of them are -ev if you bet 1/4 each-way and they would definitely all be bad at 1/5th. My advice generally would be to avoid each-way ante-post so far out. I would say use the second bet to have double on or have a saver.

 The third point is on the subject of multiple bets. Tikay is a stubborn old sod but of course he is partly right. If you bet against a bookmaker on football games where shopping for best prices might mean you are having to beat an overound of 102%, you can win by being selective. It's a struggle for the bookie as YOU DON'T HAVE TO BET EVERY GAME. If youi multiply up the bets you are giving them margin and multiplying the -ve of your bet.

 In this bet we are not negative ev (assuming you accept that the Betfair market represents the "correct" price). Therefore we are multiplying up +ve and making our bet even better for us. The bookies should hate us to multiply these +ve situations. If we add to that the fact that bookies offer bonuses on Lucky 15s and you get double odds one winner, then we are correct to play multiples.

 Personally I find that the prices start to shorten every day, for no reason other than the horses still have four legs and they appear to be breathing, on around March 5th and most of my each-way ante-post betting will happen in the 1st week of March.

 Just a few thoughts.

 

[redsimon]

Further to post yesterday, now the dust has settled.

Having taken on board a few of the comments, my proposal would be a small yankee based around horses we are pretty certain this is their sole objective. I also seemed to have engineered a team with lots of "been there, done that" about them, always a good starting point. Finally, I think all these horses will start considerably shorter on the day, assuming we get traditional festival ground, having look like they are all being prepared with the festival as the sole aim

Rock on Ruby- Champion Hurdle 10-1
Sir Des Champs- Gold Cup 7-1
Boston Bob- RSA 10-1
Champion Court-Ryanair 10-1

These are the best mix and match at, surprisingly, Sadjokes.

Yes, I am sure we all have fancies in each of the races, but each have solid ew credentials, and as I have said, it is their sole target, and all have festival winning form bar Champion Court, who finished a worthy second to SDC last year, and at the distance of his intended race was going as well as aanything in the recent King George.


Happy to discuss alternatives, but recomend a smal £1 ew yankee to Fred, if no pushback on selections

Good start Mr Adz, thank you.

My only concern would be to have some "singles", rather than, or as well as, the Yankee. I don't much like Yankees.........

Anyway, let us see what feedback arrives, & we will try & get started on the Chelters stuff this week.

If no feedback either way, we'll still have a bet though.

EW Lucky 15 maybe?

[redsimon]

I hope you'll excuse a couple of quick questions...

Can anyone advise on the best alternative betting exchange to Betfair and if possible their relative merits ?  ( I self excluded from Betfair many moons ago and it seems that is now irreversible )

I also wondered if Fred has ever considered dabbling in spread betting.  Obviously a lot of shrewd judges on here. I'm thinking of recent NBA overs total point bets for example, where we could potentially get greater leverage on a correct call. (not a recommendation by any means, just a question)

Betdaq...relatively liquid on televised footy and nags. 3% commission. No Premium Charge. Obviously not as big as Betfair but a useful alternative.

[tikay]

Re Villa Bet. Lambert showed very little interest in the FA cup in his 3 years at Norwich consistently picking much changed squads, while in the championship we lost at home to Leyton Orient!

Aaron quoted sides are from last year when McCleish was in charge, so are somewhat irrelevant.

Some insider knowledge of what Lambert is thinking massively affects the price here.

Thanks Longy.

Are you referring to the recommend by Aaron?

As you know, my football knowledge is limited, but my snap & absolute gut reaction was "but surely Villa only have one priority right now - preserving their PL status"? I mean, nothing else comes even close, surely? If they stuck out a junior team for the Cup game it would not surprise me one bit.

PS - Apropos something & nothing, is your username on 2+2 "Longy"?

[Chompy]

Daq is fine on the main sports but racing markets don't really get going until lunchtime.

It's a complete waste of time for in-running though, and they seem happy to keep it that way. For whatever reason.

[tikay]

I have a BetDaq account, I think.

[redsimon]

Daq is fine on the main sports but racing markets don't really get going until lunchtime.

It's a complete waste of time for in-running though, and they seem happy to keep it that way. For whatever reason.

Don't bet in running tbh so never noticed it

[DungBeetle]

Also far too much theatrics from the Hornets trying to con the referee.  Neuton nearly got a double booking for consecutive dives but the referee thought better of it!  Quite surreal to see your centre back flinging himself around.

13/2 for promotion? Out from 4/1 off the back of one (seemingly excusable defeat). Seems like an over-reaction to me. Will be around 3/1 if they make the play-offs and there's a possible upside in as much as they could go on a Reading-like charge and get it automatically.

I'm on at 12/1 but tempted to go in again. After they get knocked out of the Cup at the weekend, they play Smoggies (A), Hudders (H), Forest (A) and Bolton (H).

Yep does seem an over-reaction doesn't it?  Still think the squad is very strong, and the Boro game aside the other three fixtures this month look winable.

[tikay]

Neil - much food for thought there, thank you, will reply later.

Loved.....


none of these firms should appear if you Google bookmaker

Not so much......


Tikay is a stubborn old sod

[Longy]

Re Villa Bet. Lambert showed very little interest in the FA cup in his 3 years at Norwich consistently picking much changed squads, while in the championship we lost at home to Leyton Orient!

Aaron quoted sides are from last year when McCleish was in charge, so are somewhat irrelevant.

Some insider knowledge of what Lambert is thinking massively affects the price here.

Thanks Longy.

Are you referring to the recommend by Aaron?

As you know, my football knowledge is limited, but my snap & absolute gut reaction was "but surely Villa only have one priority right now - preserving their PL status"? I mean, nothing else comes even close, surely? If they stuck out a junior team for the Cup game it would not surprise me one bit.

PS - Apropos something & nothing, is your username on 2+2 "Longy"?

Yes, the above is in relation to Aaron's bet. Yes i believe Lambert's thinking may well be in with resting his players after the Christmas period to concentrate on the league, he certainly has history for doing this.

I am now the very original "Longy2" on 2+2 due to their security breach earlier in the year, so "Longy" has been retired over there.

[anthonyl]

Also far too much theatrics from the Hornets trying to con the referee.  Neuton nearly got a double booking for consecutive dives but the referee thought better of it!  Quite surreal to see your centre back flinging himself around.

13/2 for promotion? Out from 4/1 off the back of one (seemingly excusable defeat). Seems like an over-reaction to me. Will be around 3/1 if they make the play-offs and there's a possible upside in as much as they could go on a Reading-like charge and get it automatically.

I'm on at 12/1 but tempted to go in again. After they get knocked out of the Cup at the weekend, they play Smoggies (A), Hudders (H), Forest (A) and Bolton (H).

Isn't there a good chance of a points reduction?

By far the best team in league and did say they looked very good back in September when we beat them. Played us off the park as expected last Saturday.

[TightEnd]

FWIW, I agree with Longy and tikay on Villa

So much of this weekend's opportunities will depend on team selections

In principle I'd want to be looking at Premiership teams who are at no risk of relegation (lets say above Sunderland in the table) and not still in Europe, as a filter, for marginal betting decisions

(I understand thread has Liverpool as a trade)

These are the teams who should countenance long cup runs and are more likely to pick full strength teams

Haven't researched yet but for example Stoke, West Brom, Everton not Newcastle, Villa, Sunderland etc


All the other stuff, fewer upsets because of better pitches these days, bigger gap top divison to lower divisions applies as normal 

[DungBeetle]

Hard to tell on the Watford points deduction. And as usual the annoying League will drag their heels as they did last year with QPR before deciding.

My understanding is that the club lost out to the tune of a couple of million due to the alleged financial mis-dealings, but at the same time apparently we should have been under transfer embargo during last season if we had been honest.  The new owners are talking as if there won't be a point deduction but that might be just a show.  

If Watford don't go up I'll be interested to see where they are pitched for winning the league next year.  Might be a decent double figure price depending on who comes down.

[tikay]

Re Villa Bet. Lambert showed very little interest in the FA cup in his 3 years at Norwich consistently picking much changed squads, while in the championship we lost at home to Leyton Orient!

Aaron quoted sides are from last year when McCleish was in charge, so are somewhat irrelevant.

Some insider knowledge of what Lambert is thinking massively affects the price here.

Thanks Longy.

Are you referring to the recommend by Aaron?

As you know, my football knowledge is limited, but my snap & absolute gut reaction was "but surely Villa only have one priority right now - preserving their PL status"? I mean, nothing else comes even close, surely? If they stuck out a junior team for the Cup game it would not surprise me one bit.

PS - Apropos something & nothing, is your username on 2+2 "Longy"?

Yes, the above is in relation to Aaron's bet. Yes i believe Lambert's thinking may well be in with resting his players after the Christmas period to concentrate on the league, he certainly has history for doing this.

I am now the very original "Longy2" on 2+2 due to their security breach earlier in the year, so "Longy" has been retired over there.

Thanks, that makes sense. I saw some (old) Posts on 2+2 by Longy, in which my name arose, & just wondered. "Longy" had been almost nice about me, which sort of stuck out a mile on 2+2, where I have quite a rep.

[outragous76]

Football gurus

Looks like BA is leaving newcastle

newcastle to be relegated @ 12.0 - thoughts?