Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Just for Camel

Worth a bump

[tikay]

I watch alot of sport.

I watch more sport than anyone know.

It's almost sad how much sport I watch.

But just once in while I see something which makes it all worthwhile.

I see a talented young player who just is a joy to watch, who I just know it is going to be a superstar at his chosen sport. Someone who makes you stop whatever your doing and marvel at his natural talent, joie de vivre and brilliance.

Without thinking too hard I remember Federer beating Sampras at Wimbledon, Judd Trump's first world Snooker campaign and Rory winning the Dubai Desert Classic.

Not only have you got watch these people, you have to move fast and get financially involved by backing them before everyone realises just how good thy are!

Well, a new star is about to appear in the firmament imo.

San Francisco 49ers are an excellent NFL team.

They have an awesome defence led by the fearsome Smith brothers Aldon and Justin. And the Duracell bunny at LB, Patrick Willis.

Troy Aikman called their Offensive line the best he had seen since the legendary one he played behind in the nineties.

They have a dependable running back in Frank Gore.

Weapon's aplenty at WR and TE.. Randy Moss, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis.

And at QB they have Alex Smith who is top in the league completion %, fourth in QB rating with an incredibly impressive TD to INT ratio of 14:5

Only thing is, he got a concussion a couple of weeks ago and had to be taken out of the lineup by a guy who had only seen spot duty so far.

This guy: Colin Kaepernick







I have watched NFL avidly for nearly 30 years.

And I can honestly say I have never have been so excited by a young player as Kaepernick.

His arm strength is amazing, his throws are like they on a frozen rope.

He has the mobility of Michael Vick and Cam Newton.

His temperament after performing the way h did after a very traumatic week in a very hostile atmosphere on Sunday sealed the deal.

This guy is destined to be an absolute superstar.

Jim Harbaugh is a great coach, for him to bench Alex Smith in favour of this guy tells you all you need to know.

I think San Francisco are the best team in the NFC with Smith at QB. And 5/1 for the Superbowl is about the right price.

With Kaepernick at QB, it's an absolute steal. Best bet I've seen in years.

Recommend £150 on San Fransisco to win the Superbowl at 5/1.

As is this......

[Snowball]

Is it just me or does The Kap look like a larger version of Theo Walcott??
and did Walcott really get a new deal worth over 100k a week with a 3m signing on fee??

[BigAdz]

I must confess whilst relying on TFT updates til ten last nite, I started with feelings of despair, especially when even the camel seemed to lose faith.

I had the superbowl winner odds up at the time and 49ers had difted to , and I went back to reread the original post.

I thought f this and topped up, against all that felt sensible. It then became my largest ever non horsey bet, which after 30 years punting was pretty considerable.

It was like a edema moment, and strangely I felt good. The tide quickly turned and the minute Mr Effing Selfridge was over and I got to watch the game, I never felt a moments worry.

It felt like a perfect storm night after we won, so I went in heavy on the unders and also a sneaky few quid on ravens.

Days like them are few and far between.

Gawd bless ya camel.

[DungBeetle]

If anyone missed Watford's "Barca" goal against Huddersfield, it's on here and worth a look:

http://www.101greatgoals.com/blog/gianfranco-zolas-watford-score-a-tiki-taka-team-golazo-v-huddersfield/

[TightEnd]

Hi Keith, Neil, anyone else

I mirror the thread, and have a more modest sum on the 49ers at 6-1 ish that will win me £325 or so

What is the correct green out strategy please?

- Not worried about losing the initial stake, but would quite like to watch while updating on Feb 3rd with a profit either way. Consider it will be close, but of course being able to hedge on the underdog means the outlay is less than if the Pats had won


The best odds I can get where I have an account are Baltimore 17/10 outright

£100 on Baltimore at 17/10 does the job?

Or have a bit more on Baltimore with the spread and potentially win on SF and if Baltimore lose but cover?

[Chompy]

There is no correct strategy as such.

In yours and Tikay's spot - being on a 1/2 shot at 6/1 - I would be adjusting my position so that Baltimore win me half as much as SF.

Yes you're giving some away two-thirds of the time but, having come this far, you'll want a return on your bet. Keep the minuses off the scoresheet and let the profits take care of themselves.

It probably comes down to how much of a gambler you are.

It's sport at the end of the day and nothing is set in stone.

[TightEnd]

There is no correct strategy as such.

In yours and Tikay's spot - being on a 1/2 shot at 6/1 - I would be adjusting my position so that Baltimore win me half as much as SF.

Yes you're giving some away two-thirds of the time but, having come this far, you'll want a return on your bet. Keep the minuses off the scoresheet and let the profits take care of themselves.

It probably comes down to how much of a gambler you are.

It's sport at the end of the day and nothing is set in stone.

thank you

Yes I'd go +£125/£225 on the two outcomes

Which sort of suits really, much as I would like to ride on The Camels Technicolour ante-post dreamcoat tails to glory unabated.

[class]

Chompy - Any reason why Tricia has shortened so dramatically so much in the CBB betting?

[Simon Galloway]

IF

Ravens somehow did us a favour and just edged out Pats in an ugly game, SF may be what, 5pt favs?  Now the extra dimension to greening out on hcap betting comes into play, where we can green out, but also play the middle.  How big a middle would it take for people to be sorely tempted?

Obviously depends on what happens in the two Conf Championship matches, but I can't see many or any scenarios where SF would be less than 7 point favourites.

Playing on the handicap would mean commision and/or juice twice, whereas just closing out all or a portion of our outright bet means winning less and paying less commish.

Let's cross that bridge if and when we come to it.

Who's that trip-trapping across your bridge?

[Chompy]

I have no idea what's going on with Tricia but she's a solid 3/1 shot now.

She was short to be evicted on Friday in the eight-wayer and didn't get major cheers from the chimps with banners. And she's been very dull.

Still be surprised if Rylan doesn't TID.

[TightEnd]

IF

Ravens somehow did us a favour and just edged out Pats in an ugly game, SF may be what, 5pt favs?  Now the extra dimension to greening out on hcap betting comes into play, where we can green out, but also play the middle.  How big a middle would it take for people to be sorely tempted?

Obviously depends on what happens in the two Conf Championship matches, but I can't see many or any scenarios where SF would be less than 7 point favourites.

Playing on the handicap would mean commision and/or juice twice, whereas just closing out all or a portion of our outright bet means winning less and paying less commish.

Let's cross that bridge if and when we come to it.

Anyone recommend playing the middle and going for double payday?

[Chompy]

You're just covering at 10/11 instead of 7/4 and would need to give more back innit?

[TightEnd]

If Baltimore are +5 and lose a squeaky one by 3 (and 3 and 4 point margins are statistically more likely than a lot of others) you win on the cover too though....

you get the SF outright

you get the Balt +5 or whatever it is...

obviously you've lost some more EV if they don't cover

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

The 6 nations is looming and you already have a recommendation from his Tightiness for Ireland to win it, and I agree that they are where the value is. I have been looking at a couple of sub markets for some value.

In the top try scorer market I would suggest a small bet on Tuillagi e/w will be of interest. He is the only English player that I would have in my World XV and should not get substituted at all. England have 3 home games, 2 of them against 2 of the weakest sides,  and he should have some good opportunities. The days of wingers scoring 6 or more tries in the championship each year are gone and I think 3 will get into the place money.

The next market is for the team to finish bottom. Since it became the 6 nations only 3 teams have finished last, Italy, Wales and Scotland. I think this year those 3 are the possible winners of the wooden spoon. Italy are odd on for this so I will look elsewhere for the value.

Scotland and Wales are both playing poorly and neither country got a side through to the 1/4 finals of the European Cup. In the autumn internationals Wales lost to both Samoa and Argentina, whilst Scotland capped that by losing to Tonga.

In rugby playing at home is a huge advantage, more than in almost any other sport, and so it is important to look at where the crucial fixtures will be played. Both Italy and Scotland have 3 home matches whilst Wales only have 2. Even more importantly Wales have to play both of their rivals away. In their first match Wales host Ireland and I think Ireland will win. They then go to France where they will  be big underdogs. It is likely then that Wales will  travel to Italy having lost all their International matches since the last 6 nations. If the match was played this week I don't think Italy would be bigger than 7/4 to win it. Wales have also been hit very badly by injuries this season, and having players leave to play in France has not benefited them.

With all of those things it is worth looking at the prices for both Scotland and Wales to finish last. I priced them myself at Scotland 3/1 and Wales 9/2. I was therefore astonished to see that  the bookies priced them at Scotland 100/30 and Wales 20/1. If you bet with Stan James then Wales are 25-1.

Suggest Tuillagi top try scorer £5 e/w @ 16-1 Paddy Power

Wales to finish bottom £10 @ 20-1 Betfred.

P.S To any Welsh fans I am not suggesting that Wales are the worst team, it is about value.