Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

Sky are into 7-2 on Rowe. They must be monitoring the thread!

Sheer weight of money obv. £50 @ 5-1 and the PR guys come out telling everyone that this result will cost the industry millions. Bookmakers eh?

[tikay]

Not a Fred thing - Fred has his own bit on this market - but I'm  now investing modestly on France +6.5. The more I look at this, the more I agree with TightEnd. This is the France side I backed at the start of the tournament but didn't really think I'd see after the first game.

I've said before I'm excited about this England team but this will be a bigger test than I thought it would be a week ago.

Good luck Tal.

If you are not already on, Wm Hill & Sporting Bet go +8, though only 10/11 & Evens respectively.

Hope you win. If you win, Fred wins.

[tikay]

Orlandi FGS 20/1.

Scored about five this season for Brighton.

Should be about 12-14/1.

Coral.....

Also pop £5 on Brighton 4-0 @ 45/1 same site. We will smash someone soon and want revenge for going down to 9 men after 11 mins at home to burnley last season.

Any views on the FGS suggestion, please?

I'll leave the 4-0 jobbie, that looks a bit like whistling in the dark, to me, but for your sake, I hope I'm wrong.

[tikay]

Christian benteke 10/1 to score first today he has scored in his last 4 games 3 of them fgs,Arsenal have also fell behind in quite a few games this season recommend £10 ew
Also think there's a bit value in Aston Villa H.T Arsenal F.T at 18/1 £5
Both prices are with bet365


 

Any views or opinions, anyone?

[The Camel]

Camel, & the Average Bet Size Question.

I have sorted this out. I simply added 19 new formulae, drilled down into the database, added a co-tangential equation, and then converted the mean result using Fermats last theorem. Simple, if you know what you are doing.

However, I'm not sure if regular viewers can see it on the Spready, but if you cant, the numbers are as follows.....

Note they are not 100% accurate, as "presses" are counted as seperate bets.


Monthly Averages

Feb '12 £48.50

Mar '12 £51.50

April '12 £41.70

May '12 £50.00

June '12 £43.67

July '12 £37.60

August '12 £27.20

September '12 £27.40

October '12 £31.70

November '12 £25.20

December '12 £26.90

January '13 £27.90


Average Bet size since Day One - £34.76

It is not so easy to assess the profitability of Banzais, as we do not accurately define what a banzai is. However, as long as they do not cost us too much money, I believe they are an essential part of Fred, the whole idea is that we have a little fun. Point taken, however, as to Banzai bet sizings relative to overall bet-sizings.

What else can we deduce from those numbers?

Well we are definitely betting smaller. In theory, we could bet twice as big, & our ROI would remain the same, but the profit figure would double.

Part of the reason is that some of the big hitters who were originally here, & insisted on "MAX" every time, have moved on, plus I've built up a resistance to MAXES which I do not consider suitable. But readers can bet whatever sum they wish, of course.

I'm open-minded as to whether we should bet bigger. In poker, if I can beat, say, £0.25 £0.50 Online Omaha - which I can - does not mean I will move up to £0.50p-£1. My mind does not work that way, I'm happy with some profit if I'm enjoying myself. Betting bigger is fun when we win, but painful when we lose. I don't much care for pain in my recreations, I have enough of that in other areas of my life.

Good question, happy to change our approach, or debate further.

I'm off to build some more complex spreadsheets now.

Excellent work with the Spready Mere Tony.

My point wasn't anti betting smaller (although my recommends will be of the same size as they ever would have been) but the banzai bets should be proportionally smaller.

The average bet size seems to have fallen by nearly half.

Banzai bets will be eating up ROI unless they are reduced by half too.

[BigAdz]

To be fair from a statistical point of view Arsenal are winning all their points from weaker teams. I dont think we have taken any significant points from teams above us for ages.

I expect/hope they will be thoroughly ashamed of themselves and pull out a big victory.

I know its my team, but it will be a truly sad day if this happens.

That said if it was Liverpool, I would be all over it!!!

[redarmi]

Christian benteke 10/1 to score first today he has scored in his last 4 games 3 of them fgs,Arsenal have also fell behind in quite a few games this season recommend £10 ew
Also think there's a bit value in Aston Villa H.T Arsenal F.T at 18/1 £5
Both prices are with bet365


 

Any views or opinions, anyone?

Problem is even if he scores 30% of Villas goals he is still a 13/1 shot to score first in this game.  Assuming the match and goals prices are correct he would have to score 40% of Villas goals to be any value at 10/1 and almost nobody scores that percentage of their teams goals.  Similarly Villa - Arsenal FT should be 30/1 according to my very rough maths.

[tikay]

^^^^

Thanks Keith, your point about Banzai bet sizing is fair, and noted.

I do, however, deeply resent the suggestion that Mere had a hand in producing these numbers. My software are talents are well disguised, it seems.

[tikay]

Christian benteke 10/1 to score first today he has scored in his last 4 games 3 of them fgs,Arsenal have also fell behind in quite a few games this season recommend £10 ew
Also think there's a bit value in Aston Villa H.T Arsenal F.T at 18/1 £5
Both prices are with bet365


 

Any views or opinions, anyone?

Problem is even if he scores 30% of Villas goals he is still a 13/1 shot to score first in this game.  Assuming the match and goals prices are correct he would have to score 40% of Villas goals to be any value at 10/1 and almost nobody scores that percentage of their teams goals.  Similarly Villa - Arsenal FT should be 30/1 according to my very rough maths.

You saved me reds, thank you.

Not to be rude, or ungrateful to anyone, but there has to be a logic, or value, to bets if we want to remain profitable.

[pokerfan]

On the subject of twitter tips, I thought I'd share this for no other reason than its funny name

@raceclear: Today's Raceclear Free selection: Lingfield 1.55 Welease Bwian 1pt Each Way @ 8/1. http://t.co/1wYh7bVPaI

[adnmdv]

re: Staking...Kelly?

[The Camel]

re: Staking...Kelly?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

[redarmi]

re: Staking...Kelly?

Problem with kelly is that you need to have a good estimation of the probability which, whilst it is very good habit to get into is a lot of work and might frighten off some of Fred's posters.

[Nico29]

Coral are still 6-1 on that Tommy Rowe bet.

[BigAdz]

re: Staking...Kelly?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

FFS Keith, Its Saturday!!