Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Aussie Rules pre season is under way with the NAB Cup tourney. In each round 3 teams play each other in 1 night over a shorter game time.

In the previous 4 sets of matches the team playing the 2nd match after playing in the first has lost coming in against the fresh team. Today the games are being played in a hot and humid Gold Coast where Brisbane come in fresh against Hawthorn who play Gold Coast first up.

Hawthorn are probably the best team in AFL however Brisbane ate improving, GC is pretty much home for them and both teams are not at full strength.

Stan James are ool here with Brisbane at 2/1, Betfair has them at 6/5. I suggest £25 @ 2/1 Brisbane win.

Need to be quick though as game starts at 9.45am

Great spot, thank you. Fred cannot get on with Stan James, but for those who still can, deffo worth considering.

Away from Stan James, BWIn are best @ 6/4.

Is it still worth a wager @ 6/4?


http://www.oddschecker.com/aussie-rules/nab-cup/brisbane-lions-v-hawthorn/winner

[tikay]

Pujara OUT for 44.

Was hoping for more, but that is a nice solid start, & I'm happy enough with that.

[Teacake]

Aussie Rules pre season is under way with the NAB Cup tourney. In each round 3 teams play each other in 1 night over a shorter game time.

In the previous 4 sets of matches the team playing the 2nd match after playing in the first has lost coming in against the fresh team. Today the games are being played in a hot and humid Gold Coast where Brisbane come in fresh against Hawthorn who play Gold Coast first up.

Hawthorn are probably the best team in AFL however Brisbane ate improving, GC is pretty much home for them and both teams are not at full strength.

Stan James are ool here with Brisbane at 2/1, Betfair has them at 6/5. I suggest £25 @ 2/1 Brisbane win.

Need to be quick though as game starts at 9.45am

Great spot, thank you. Fred cannot get on with Stan James, but for those who still can, deffo worth considering.

Away from Stan James, BWIn are best @ 6/4.

Is it still worth a wager @ 6/4?


http://www.oddschecker.com/aussie-rules/nab-cup/brisbane-lions-v-hawthorn/winner

Damn format about that. 6/4 is marginal however Hawthorn have just lost their 1st to Gold Coast by 1 point which is a bit of  a surprise.

I would be loathed to take 6/4 myself so let's pass on it.

[tikay]

6 Nations Promo.

I'm always a little wary of Bookies Promos - they don't do them because they are nice people - & this one, typically, encourages us to bet Accas, which of course the Bookies adore.

Anyway, it was from BWin, & said this.....


The Six Nations Championship is at the midway point and our fantastic offer is still going strong.

Remember to make a 3 team combo with odds of 2.50 or above which includes England, Ireland, Scotland or Wales to win their game and if they let you down we will refund your bet up to GBP 25.

Which looks like a bet to nothing.

It rather looks like I may have got this round my not inconsiderable fat head.

The ever helpful MereAuditor - we simply could not run Fred without him - wrote to me overnight, after auditing the bet, he had investigated the T & C's which said.....


"The Bonus will be credited to your Account within 48 hours after the promotion has ended.
The Bonus has to be wagered three times at odds of 1.70 on our sports betting offer before any winnings arising from it can be withdrawn
You will have 90 days to meet the wagering restrictions."

I am in no rush to withdraw any potential winnings, it can stay there for the foreseeable future, but IF the bet got home this weekend, would/could we still count it as a win?

He also said this....

Also, did you have to nominate one of the three teams as "your" team?
My reading of the bet conditions is that you only get the refund if "your" team loses.

It must be said, on my knowledge of Mere, he generally reads these things with his unerringly accurate Vision Express pedantacles on.

So I'm not sure where we are with it.

Thoughts, anyone?

[tikay]

Aussie Rules pre season is under way with the NAB Cup tourney. In each round 3 teams play each other in 1 night over a shorter game time.

In the previous 4 sets of matches the team playing the 2nd match after playing in the first has lost coming in against the fresh team. Today the games are being played in a hot and humid Gold Coast where Brisbane come in fresh against Hawthorn who play Gold Coast first up.

Hawthorn are probably the best team in AFL however Brisbane ate improving, GC is pretty much home for them and both teams are not at full strength.

Stan James are ool here with Brisbane at 2/1, Betfair has them at 6/5. I suggest £25 @ 2/1 Brisbane win.

Need to be quick though as game starts at 9.45am

Great spot, thank you. Fred cannot get on with Stan James, but for those who still can, deffo worth considering.

Away from Stan James, BWIn are best @ 6/4.

Is it still worth a wager @ 6/4?


http://www.oddschecker.com/aussie-rules/nab-cup/brisbane-lions-v-hawthorn/winner

Damn format about that. 6/4 is marginal however Hawthorn have just lost their 1st to Gold Coast by 1 point which is a bit of  a surprise.

I would be loathed to take 6/4 myself so let's pass on it.

Top man, thank you. I love it when folks don't bet for the sake of it.

[tikay]

Camel, & the Average Bet Size Question.

I have sorted this out. I simply added 19 new formulae, drilled down into the database, added a co-tangential equation, and then converted the mean result using Fermats last theorem. Simple, if you know what you are doing.

However, I'm not sure if regular viewers can see it on the Spready, but if you cant, the numbers are as follows.....

Note they are not 100% accurate, as "presses" are counted as seperate bets.


Monthly Averages

Feb '12 £48.50

Mar '12 £51.50

April '12 £41.70

May '12 £50.00

June '12 £43.67

July '12 £37.60

August '12 £27.20

September '12 £27.40

October '12 £31.70

November '12 £25.20

December '12 £26.90

January '13 £27.90


Average Bet size since Day One - £34.76

It is not so easy to assess the profitability of Banzais, as we do not accurately define what a banzai is. However, as long as they do not cost us too much money, I believe they are an essential part of Fred, the whole idea is that we have a little fun. Point taken, however, as to Banzai bet sizings relative to overall bet-sizings.

What else can we deduce from those numbers?

Well we are definitely betting smaller. In theory, we could bet twice as big, & our ROI would remain the same, but the profit figure would double.

Part of the reason is that some of the big hitters who were originally here, & insisted on "MAX" every time, have moved on, plus I've built up a resistance to MAXES which I do not consider suitable. But readers can bet whatever sum they wish, of course.

I'm open-minded as to whether we should bet bigger. In poker, if I can beat, say, £0.25 £0.50 Online Omaha - which I can - does not mean I will move up to £0.50p-£1. My mind does not work that way, I'm happy with some profit if I'm enjoying myself. Betting bigger is fun when we win, but painful when we lose. I don't much care for pain in my recreations, I have enough of that in other areas of my life.

Good question, happy to change our approach, or debate further.

I'm off to build some more complex spreadsheets now.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

I know how you like a bookies promotion on the 6 nations so here is one for you. Betfred have a promo where by if you bet on the first try scorer and he then goes on to score a 2nd try then they will pay out double the odds ( nice and simple no bet through thingies). They are doing this offer on all the matches and today there is the game that I think has the most chance of success.

Italy play Wales in a sunnyish Rome. Wales have 2 good wingers in North and Cuthbert. They also have centres and halfbacks who are on the large/ slow side. What Wales do to provide attacking threat is to utilise their wingers by bringing them into play more than any other side. They play them off the centres and the fly half. This gives them lots of opportunities to score tries. From the games against France and Scotland it is apparent that Italy's defence from recycled ball and from chasing kicks is not very good and the Welsh back 3 should be looking to attack them at every opportunity like Scotland did.

Suggest £5 first try scorers North @ 15/2  and Cuthbert @ 7-1 with Betfred.

I am not sure this qualifies as a "banzai" but maybe more of a "wax on, wax off" kind of a bet.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

I know how you like a bookies promotion on the 6 nations so here is one for you. Betfred have a promo where by if you bet on the first try scorer and he then goes on to score a 2nd try then they will pay out double the odds ( nice and simple no bet through thingies). They are doing this offer on all the matches and today there is the game that I think has the most chance of success.

Italy play Wales in a sunnyish Rome. Wales have 2 good wingers in North and Cuthbert. They also have centres and halfbacks who are on the large/ slow side. What Wales do to provide attacking threat is to utilise their wingers by bringing them into play more than any other side. They play them off the centres and the fly half. This gives them lots of opportunities to score tries. From the games against France and Scotland it is apparent that Italy's defence from recycled ball and from chasing kicks is not very good and the Welsh back 3 should be looking to attack them at every opportunity like Scotland did.

Suggest £5 first try scorers North @ 15/2  and Cuthbert @ 7-1 with Betfred.

I am not sure this qualifies as a "banzai" but maybe more of a "wax on, wax off" kind of a bet.

Mortning hector.

Excellent!

Hopefully, it will pass vetting by MereAuditor's stringent pedantacles.

As to how the game will play out, your thoughts happen to align precisely with mine, recycled ball, yadda yadda.

On my way to speak to Mr Done.

[TightEnd]

In the cricket I am still ticking to be frank. Was a long frustratng night

I wrote beforehand

"Risks?

NZ are probably the more fragile batting team, especially at 1-3. If they bat first, and Anderson/Finn get among them then we might get a lower first innings total than we need (first two games 258 and 270)

That's a chance worth taking"


and this is pretty much what happened

there were 40 combined boundaries, in a match score of 360 combined

If NZ had batted with more gumption, and scored 250 - this would only have taken one player to bat with McCullum for another 6-7 overs- then the bet was a shoo-in as the read of the pitch conditions/boundary size/par first innings score was about right

Very frustrating

[Karabiner]

I've been trawling through the last twenty pages on here but had no joy in finding the post where someone recommended the two Thai Jutanugam sisters in the big ladies' golf event in Thailand this week at very big prices.

It was one hell of a shout as one of them is sitting in solo 2nd place after two rounds.

She now leads by three shots going into the final round.

I think the recommend was @ 66/1

[tikay]

In the cricket I am still ticking to be frank. Was a long frustratng night

I wrote beforehand

"Risks?

NZ are probably the more fragile batting team, especially at 1-3. If they bat first, and Anderson/Finn get among them then we might get a lower first innings total than we need (first two games 258 and 270)

That's a chance worth taking"

and this is pretty much what happened

there were 40 combined boundaries, in a match score of 360 combined

If NZ had batted with more gumption, and scored 250 - this would only have taken one player to bat with McCullum for another 6-7 overs- then the bet was a shoo-in as the read of the pitch conditions/boundary size/par first innings score was about right

Very frustrating

Yup, I noted your pre-bet caveat.

Just one of those things, Rich, it happens, no complaints from me.

I did observe.........that the outfield was quite slow, due to longer than usual grass, presumably because the ground duels as a Rugby Venue, but not enough to make much difference. It may not even affect the sixes at all.

The bet was excellent, it lost, no sulky-wulkies, next case.

[Doobs]

Morning Mr T.

I know how you like a bookies promotion on the 6 nations so here is one for you. Betfred have a promo where by if you bet on the first try scorer and he then goes on to score a 2nd try then they will pay out double the odds ( nice and simple no bet through thingies). They are doing this offer on all the matches and today there is the game that I think has the most chance of success.

Italy play Wales in a sunnyish Rome. Wales have 2 good wingers in North and Cuthbert. They also have centres and halfbacks who are on the large/ slow side. What Wales do to provide attacking threat is to utilise their wingers by bringing them into play more than any other side. They play them off the centres and the fly half. This gives them lots of opportunities to score tries. From the games against France and Scotland it is apparent that Italy's defence from recycled ball and from chasing kicks is not very good and the Welsh back 3 should be looking to attack them at every opportunity like Scotland did.

Suggest £5 first try scorers North @ 15/2  and Cuthbert @ 7-1 with Betfred.

I am not sure this qualifies as a "banzai" but maybe more of a "wax on, wax off" kind of a bet.

Mortning hector.

Excellent!

Hopefully, it will pass vetting by MereAuditor's stringent pedantacles.

As to how the game will play out, your thoughts happen to align precisely with mine, recycled ball, yadda yadda.

On my way to speak to Mr Done.

Quick check on Betfair gives the odds as 10/1 and 9.5/1.  The extra bonus looks bad value to me

[tikay]

I've been trawling through the last twenty pages on here but had no joy in finding the post where someone recommended the two Thai Jutanugam sisters in the big ladies' golf event in Thailand this week at very big prices.

It was one hell of a shout as one of them is sitting in solo 2nd place after two rounds.

She now leads by three shots going into the final round.

I think the recommend was @ 66/1

I searched Fred for that suggestion Ralph, & could not find it anywhere. I used "Search" (top of page) but maybe it was spelt incorrectly. I searched by "Jutanugam", "Thailand", & "Ladies Golf", but it never came up.

Whoever it was, good shout. Being Ladies Golf, I can only assume you or MerePerv were the likely candidates.

[Teacake]

Aussie Rules pre season is under way with the NAB Cup tourney. In each round 3 teams play each other in 1 night over a shorter game time.

In the previous 4 sets of matches the team playing the 2nd match after playing in the first has lost coming in against the fresh team. Today the games are being played in a hot and humid Gold Coast where Brisbane come in fresh against Hawthorn who play Gold Coast first up.

Hawthorn are probably the best team in AFL however Brisbane ate improving, GC is pretty much home for them and both teams are not at full strength.

Stan James are ool here with Brisbane at 2/1, Betfair has them at 6/5. I suggest £25 @ 2/1 Brisbane win.

Need to be quick though as game starts at 9.45am

Great spot, thank you. Fred cannot get on with Stan James, but for those who still can, deffo worth considering.

Away from Stan James, BWIn are best @ 6/4.

Is it still worth a wager @ 6/4?


http://www.oddschecker.com/aussie-rules/nab-cup/brisbane-lions-v-hawthorn/winner

Damn format about that. 6/4 is marginal however Hawthorn have just lost their 1st to Gold Coast by 1 point which is a bit of  a surprise.

I would be loathed to take 6/4 myself so let's pass on it.

Brisbane win 32-11.

Game went as planned, Brisbane were more rusty than fresh and got stronger as the game went on as Hawthorn visibly tired in the humidity or as one of their players put it in a post match interview he was " a bit buggered towards the end".

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

I know how you like a bookies promotion on the 6 nations so here is one for you. Betfred have a promo where by if you bet on the first try scorer and he then goes on to score a 2nd try then they will pay out double the odds ( nice and simple no bet through thingies). They are doing this offer on all the matches and today there is the game that I think has the most chance of success.

Italy play Wales in a sunnyish Rome. Wales have 2 good wingers in North and Cuthbert. They also have centres and halfbacks who are on the large/ slow side. What Wales do to provide attacking threat is to utilise their wingers by bringing them into play more than any other side. They play them off the centres and the fly half. This gives them lots of opportunities to score tries. From the games against France and Scotland it is apparent that Italy's defence from recycled ball and from chasing kicks is not very good and the Welsh back 3 should be looking to attack them at every opportunity like Scotland did.

Suggest £5 first try scorers North @ 15/2  and Cuthbert @ 7-1 with Betfred.

I am not sure this qualifies as a "banzai" but maybe more of a "wax on, wax off" kind of a bet.

Wax on, wax off, no catch promo.

We have £5 @ 13/2, Betfred, Cuthbert FTS, Italy v Wales

£5 @ 15/2, BetFred, North, FTS, Italy v Wales.

ON

Italy v Wales
First Tryscorer
 Cuthbert, Alex 13/2  
Total stake £ 5.00
Estimated return £ 37.50

Bet ref: 95/97 £5.00 Single
Market Selection Price Hcp
Italy v Wales
First Tryscorer
 North, George 15/2  
Total stake £ 5.00
Estimated return £ 42.50

Full stake £ 10.00
Full estimated return £ 80.00