Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Aussie Rules pre season is under way with the NAB Cup tourney. In each round 3 teams play each other in 1 night over a shorter game time.

In the previous 4 sets of matches the team playing the 2nd match after playing in the first has lost coming in against the fresh team. Today the games are being played in a hot and humid Gold Coast where Brisbane come in fresh against Hawthorn who play Gold Coast first up.

Hawthorn are probably the best team in AFL however Brisbane ate improving, GC is pretty much home for them and both teams are not at full strength.

Stan James are ool here with Brisbane at 2/1, Betfair has them at 6/5. I suggest £25 @ 2/1 Brisbane win.

Need to be quick though as game starts at 9.45am

Great spot, thank you. Fred cannot get on with Stan James, but for those who still can, deffo worth considering.

Away from Stan James, BWIn are best @ 6/4.

Is it still worth a wager @ 6/4?


http://www.oddschecker.com/aussie-rules/nab-cup/brisbane-lions-v-hawthorn/winner

Damn format about that. 6/4 is marginal however Hawthorn have just lost their 1st to Gold Coast by 1 point which is a bit of  a surprise.

I would be loathed to take 6/4 myself so let's pass on it.

Brisbane win 32-11.

Game went as planned, Brisbane were more rusty than fresh and got stronger as the game went on as Hawthorn visibly tired in the humidity or as one of their players put it in a post match interview he was " a bit buggered towards the end".

Bit like us today, then.....

Very nice shout. Shame we swerved it, but I seem to recall from last year that you are quite hot on Aussie Rules so plenty more opportunities.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

I know how you like a bookies promotion on the 6 nations so here is one for you. Betfred have a promo where by if you bet on the first try scorer and he then goes on to score a 2nd try then they will pay out double the odds ( nice and simple no bet through thingies). They are doing this offer on all the matches and today there is the game that I think has the most chance of success.

Italy play Wales in a sunnyish Rome. Wales have 2 good wingers in North and Cuthbert. They also have centres and halfbacks who are on the large/ slow side. What Wales do to provide attacking threat is to utilise their wingers by bringing them into play more than any other side. They play them off the centres and the fly half. This gives them lots of opportunities to score tries. From the games against France and Scotland it is apparent that Italy's defence from recycled ball and from chasing kicks is not very good and the Welsh back 3 should be looking to attack them at every opportunity like Scotland did.

Suggest £5 first try scorers North @ 15/2  and Cuthbert @ 7-1 with Betfred.

I am not sure this qualifies as a "banzai" but maybe more of a "wax on, wax off" kind of a bet.

Mortning hector.

Excellent!

Hopefully, it will pass vetting by MereAuditor's stringent pedantacles.

As to how the game will play out, your thoughts happen to align precisely with mine, recycled ball, yadda yadda.

On my way to speak to Mr Done.

Quick check on Betfair gives the odds as 10/1 and 9.5/1.  The extra bonus looks bad value to me

I'm either too quick, or too slow.

Never mind, recycled balls await.

[Karabiner]

I've been trawling through the last twenty pages on here but had no joy in finding the post where someone recommended the two Thai Jutanugam sisters in the big ladies' golf event in Thailand this week at very big prices.

It was one hell of a shout as one of them is sitting in solo 2nd place after two rounds.

She now leads by three shots going into the final round.

I think the recommend was @ 66/1

I searched Fred for that suggestion Ralph, & could not find it anywhere. I used "Search" (top of page) but maybe it was spelt incorrectly. I searched by "Jutanugam", "Thailand", & "Ladies Golf", but it never came up.

Whoever it was, good shout. Being Ladies Golf, I can only assume you or MerePerv were the likely candidates.

Me too I tried the search thing and looked back twenty pages yesterday but still couldn't find it.

As I recall he recommended one sister @ 66/1 and the other @ 150/1 on their home course suggesting that they may not win but place money was a distinct possibility.

Unless I dreamt the whole thing...

[tikay]

I've been trawling through the last twenty pages on here but had no joy in finding the post where someone recommended the two Thai Jutanugam sisters in the big ladies' golf event in Thailand this week at very big prices.

It was one hell of a shout as one of them is sitting in solo 2nd place after two rounds.

She now leads by three shots going into the final round.

I think the recommend was @ 66/1

I searched Fred for that suggestion Ralph, & could not find it anywhere. I used "Search" (top of page) but maybe it was spelt incorrectly. I searched by "Jutanugam", "Thailand", & "Ladies Golf", but it never came up.

Whoever it was, good shout. Being Ladies Golf, I can only assume you or MerePerv were the likely candidates.

Me too I tried the search thing and looked back twenty pages yesterday but still couldn't find it.

As I recall he recommended one sister @ 66/1 and the other @ 150/1 on their home course suggesting that they may not win but place money was a distinct possibility.

Unless I dreamt the whole thing...

I would bet a tidy sum it was not on this thread.

You dreamt it? Possibly. Have you been inhaling again, Retro-Ralph 1970's style?

[horseplayer]

I've been trawling through the last twenty pages on here but had no joy in finding the post where someone recommended the two Thai Jutanugam sisters in the big ladies' golf event in Thailand this week at very big prices.

It was one hell of a shout as one of them is sitting in solo 2nd place after two rounds.

She now leads by three shots going into the final round.

I think the recommend was @ 66/1

I searched Fred for that suggestion Ralph, & could not find it anywhere. I used "Search" (top of page) but maybe it was spelt incorrectly. I searched by "Jutanugam", "Thailand", & "Ladies Golf", but it never came up.

Whoever it was, good shout. Being Ladies Golf, I can only assume you or MerePerv were the likely candidates.

Me too I tried the search thing and looked back twenty pages yesterday but still couldn't find it.

As I recall he recommended one sister @ 66/1 and the other @ 150/1 on their home course suggesting that they may not win but place money was a distinct possibility.

Unless I dreamt the whole thing...

I would bet a tidy sum it was not on this thread.

You dreamt it? Possibly. Have you been inhaling again, Retro-Ralph 1970's style?

a long running tipster (free) who is on twitter put them both up very early at those prices

i can only presume you saw this, to say he takes a long term views is an understatement he has massive losing runs but then again his average price seems to be about 80-1 in the golf

[tikay]

Ahh, that seems the most likely answer, thanks horsey.

Ralph is, despite his advancing years, a bit of a Twitterati.

[Karabiner]

Ahh, that seems the most likely answer, thanks horsey.

Ralph is, despite his advancing years, a bit of a Twitterati.

That must have been it I had a 

[tikay]

Ahh, that seems the most likely answer, thanks horsey.

Ralph is, despite his advancing years, a bit of a Twitterati.

That must have been it I had a 

Post it here next time!

150/1 & 66/1, oooohhhhh

[BigAdz]

I feel I am going against all that is holy by putting this up.

Hollo Ladies 4.25 Kempton £5e/w

Very well regarded a couple of seasons ago, and almost went off fav for the Byrne Group Plate at the fest 2 years ago.

I hate backing an Ferdy Murphy horse these days as I am sure he has them so far out the back every race, trying to get them well handicapped, that some of them forget how to race when it is their turn(normally aims everything at Chelts). However, this horse has been given a few inches of rein the last couple and won up at Ayr, beating a Pipe hotpot, and last time running another really solid race behind a real talking horse called Thunderstorm, of Hobbs. To me he just missed out at the last when looking a danger.

No matter. As a result he is a massive 20-1, and I am hoping the fact he is out again so quickly, and being brought down south is a good sign. He has probably run so badly for so long, he wont get in at Chelts, so a win here may well be required to get in anything there, and with Timmy Murphy booked, its worth a small interest. Just hope it aint Baby Shine that does him!

At 20-1 I think were he trained by a bigger yard we would be looking at much shorter odds, but the trip south and the fact he is out again so quickly, are the significant factors. GL

[tentwowilldo]

Christian benteke 10/1 to score first today he has scored in his last 4 games 3 of them fgs,Arsenal have also fell behind in quite a few games this season recommend £10 ew
Also think there's a bit value in Aston Villa H.T Arsenal F.T at 18/1 £5
Both prices are with bet365


 

[Chompy]

Right, got a cracking Posh-based punt. Make it a max if you like as the price is plain wrong.

Boydy has now left the building and there's a very strong chance Tommy Rowe will play left wing rather than left-back. Our two more recognised left-backs are just coming back from injury, and Craig Alcock could well start after playing 90mins in a reserve match in the week.

Rowe has scored in four of our last eight league matches, including both in the 2-1 win over Barnsley, but is still 6-1 to score at any time with Coral. 5-1 with Hills or Sky is also too big.

[tikay]

I feel I am going against all that is holy by putting this up.

Hollo Ladies 4.25 Kempton £5e/w

Very well regarded a couple of seasons ago, and almost went off fav for the Byrne Group Plate at the fest 2 years ago.

I hate backing an Ferdy Murphy horse these days as I am sure he has them so far out the back every race, trying to get them well handicapped, that some of them forget how to race when it is their turn(normally aims everything at Chelts). However, this horse has been given a few inches of rein the last couple and won up at Ayr, beating a Pipe hotpot, and last time running another really solid race behind a real talking horse called Thunderstorm, of Hobbs. To me he just missed out at the last when looking a danger.

No matter. As a result he is a massive 20-1, and I am hoping the fact he is out again so quickly, and being brought down south is a good sign. He has probably run so badly for so long, he wont get in at Chelts, so a win here may well be required to get in anything there, and with Timmy Murphy booked, its worth a small interest. Just hope it aint Baby Shine that does him!

At 20-1 I think were he trained by a bigger yard we would be looking at much shorter odds, but the trip south and the fact he is out again so quickly, are the significant factors. GL

Thanks Adzy.

The highlighted part particularly caught my eye, though I suppose when we fancy a horse, we will always find a good reason!

What did NOT catch my eye was your bet-size, I thought you had not mentioned a sum, so you were about to get a stiff memo from Head Office. Only after I punted a tenner ew did I see you had in fact suggested £5 EW. So we will win twice as much now. Very probably.

We have £10 EW, 20/1, Wm Hill, Hollo Ladies, 4.25 Kempton.

ON

23 Feb 2013 - 4:25 Kempton - Win

Hollo Ladies @ 20/1  EW @ 1/4 1-3

Stake : £20.00 (£10.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £270.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000271/F

[tikay]

Adzy - I assume you are not planning to go to Kempton today?

1) It clashes with England France at Twickers, barely 5 miles away, & the traffic will be gridlocked.

2) It is currently snowing heavily here (3 miles from Kempton), so the Meet may not even go ahead. 

[tikay]

Christian benteke 10/1 to score first today he has scored in his last 4 games 3 of them fgs,Arsenal have also fell behind in quite a few games this season recommend £10 ew
Also think there's a bit value in Aston Villa H.T Arsenal F.T at 18/1 £5
Both prices are with bet365


 

Any input or feedback on this, please?

I rather fancied 4-0 to the Arsenal today.

[adnmdv]

Right, got a cracking Posh-based punt. Make it a max if you like as the price is plain wrong.

Boydy has now left the building and there's a very strong chance Tommy Rowe will play left wing rather than left-back. Our two more recognised left-backs are just coming back from injury, and Craig Alcock could well start after playing 90mins in a reserve match in the week.

Rowe has scored in four of our last eight league matches, including both in the 2-1 win over Barnsley, but is still 6-1 to score at any time with Coral. 5-1 with Hills or Sky is also too big.

Joe Nwell?