Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

We had Bago in the Arc the year Westerner was 2nd.  Ours just couldn't catch it and finished 3rd.  That result pushed us in to 2nd in the Tote Ten To Follow.  We ended up with £23k or so, the winner £165k or 16500-1 (I had about 25%).  I think we had Westerner in about half our lists that year, but not that one.  I think Bago got precisely zero for us that year.

We were rubbish, FWIW Tikay crushes the ten to follow.

[gherkin]

I really like England to win and both teams to score tomrrow night 5/2 Coral or William Hill

Did this last week v Montenegro, and the price is the same for tomorrow

England are 1/4, so no value

Looking around for alternatives, Poland have options going forward and England are look to me capable of letting the odd one in, even if it is just a consolation as last week

Would 5/2 Eng/BTTS be value?

FWIW I had a small bet on this earlier (before seeing your post) as it was the best bet I could find for teh England match

Poland have scored in 14 of their last 15 internationals and England have conceded in 10 of their last 13.  

Either 6/4 BTTS on it's own or 5/2 on the combo seem good to me

[gherkin]

I actually think the 6/4 on BTTS is slightly better value. 

Looking at the maths, that bet would need it to happen 40% to break even whereas the combo needs ~28.5%.  I'm not sure England are winning over 71% of the time when both teams have scored.  Basically that is the number & scenario you need to look at when looking which one to bet

[BigAdz]

The two nightmares I still have twenty plus years later.

My mate was Head Lad at John Edwards and they had felt Yahoo had masses of improvement. He pissed up in the Tommy Whittle and I recall being at Newbury that day stood round a bookies black and white portable, with people asking who that was cruising behind the leaders, and proudly telling them.
We had backed him at all rates from 200-1 down, and he still went off 33s for the Gold Cup. If only they had betfair in them days it would still be a happy memory...Instead I'm probably the only person on the planet that hated Dessie!

The second one I was chatting with Marky about the other day. Again a long term punt on Silver Patriarch for the Derby. Watching Pat sitting tight and waiting, and as they crossed the line still convinced he had won and then praying for a stewards.....sick just thinking about them.lol

[Jamier-Host]

Used to work in Coral shops years ago and one weekend I fancied a go on the Scoop in a rollover week.  Bagged the first 5 winners and was already worrying about concocting a story about how the winning ticket had managed to be placed in my shop...!

They show how much is running on for each selection so knew I was on for about £30k plus the bonus. My nag pulled out wide as though it was going to blitz them in last couple of furlongs but found nothing and came 3rd of 7 so didn't even get a place dividend

Edit - sorry forgot this was a big winners question not bad beat tale.  Everyone else was at it though! Cycling guy my biggest price single but had a coupla silly accas before for small stakes.

[superwomble]

I had an awful near-hit last night. Was going to stick a couple of quid e/w on a cyclist at 150/1 after reading a cracking tip on here, but it had gone to 50/1. I figured if it was tipped at 150/1 50/1 wasn't a bet...

 

Great tip though wetsuit!

[horseplayer]

Is the new exchange in  the ad above just lads effort on there own or a rebranding of betdaq?

[Doobs]

About 10 years ago there was a very promising Novice Hurdler called Puntal, who looked really special at the start of the season, and ended it getting shoved hard and fading away in some high class races.  His Novice Chase season followed the same pattern, very promising early, then running in the big end of season chases only to get scrubbed along early doors and well beaten. I am sure I wasted some money in these earlier races, but they are long forgotten.

He just looked a classic Timeform squiggle horse.  He then got an entry in the Grand National, and I had the thought that he would be going way slower in the Grand National than he would in the Arkle, and he'd end up enjoying his racing a lot more.  I think I got 200/1 or 250/1, and he ran an absolute blinder.  I could barely believe it, he was right at the front clearly enjoying himself.  Alas, not long after the start of the 2nd circuit, he hit one and keeled over.  I was pretty disappointed at the time, but had such a great run for my money.

He then showed up a few weeks later for the Whitbread at Sandown.  It says on the Racing Post that he touched 33/1, but I am reasonably sure someone opened at 50/1 or 66/1 and I snapped it off.  Regardless of the price, he set off and was right near the front throughout, and went storming clear at the bottom of the hill.  Anybody who knows Sandown would realise that wasn't the end of it, and needless to say he started tiring after the last.  He only just held on at the end, and even though it probably wasn't the biggest winner, it was probably the most satisfying one.

I backed old Puntal and his squiggle at another big price in the National the year after, but again he was prominent at the start, but his stamina gave out a mile from home.

He really was a recalcitrant beast, but I got so much big priced value from the old rogue.  

[tikay]

I actually think the 6/4 on BTTS is slightly better value. 

Looking at the maths, that bet would need it to happen 40% to break even whereas the combo needs ~28.5%.  I'm not sure England are winning over 71% of the time when both teams have scored.  Basically that is the number & scenario you need to look at when looking which one to bet

Thanks, that looks the way to go, I think.

[horseplayer]

It pains me to say but at what point do Poland become backable?

In my head i had them a 10's or 11's shot see some 14's is now about

[claypole]

1992, Gold Cup - Cool Ground or 'Jack' as we knew him.  Horse was trained locally, and I had gone to college with the trainers son Nick when it had won the Kim Muir in 1989. Horse had an amzing turn of foot - however was probably a top handicapper at best.  Nicks dad had been moved on, however we all had an emotional connection with the horse - so in 1999 then trained I thnk by Reg Akehurst or Toby Balding has Richard had been moved on, many epople in the Weymouth / Dorchester area backed the forse, me included at 50/1.  The fellow was a hot favourote, however a youthful Adrian McGuire (what an amzing jockey) beat off the Pipe trained Carvills LAd which ran a shcoker, and I think Doclknds Express and The Fellow - top calss field

What a da that was...often watch the replay on You Tube, makes me feel old but always gets me a bit emotional...that and Hasten to Add in the Ebor a yeasr or sol later horses I have cheered home most

[claypole]

It pains me to say but at what point do Poland become backable?

In my head i had them a 10's or 11's shot see some 14's is now about

Are you Vinny in disguise...horsey is a Scot.  No room for betting proffesionalsim when a World Cup is at stake

[Marky147]

1992, Gold Cup - Cool Ground or 'Jack' as we knew him.  Horse was trained locally, and I had gone to college with the trainers son Nick when it had won the Kim Muir in 1989. Horse had an amzing turn of foot - however was probably a top handicapper at best.  Nicks dad had been moved on, however we all had an emotional connection with the horse - so in 1999 then trained I thnk by Reg Akehurst or Toby Balding has Richard had been moved on, many epople in the Weymouth / Dorchester area backed the forse, me included at 50/1.  The fellow was a hot favourote, however a youthful Adrian McGuire (what an amzing jockey) beat off the Pipe trained Carvills LAd which ran a shcoker, and I think Doclknds Express and The Fellow - top calss field

What a da that was...often watch the replay on You Tube, makes me feel old but always gets me a bit emotional...that and Hasten to Add in the Ebor a yeasr or sol later horses I have cheered home most

I'm too young to remember, but I'm pretty sure John Chappell's got cleaned out that day!

[Tal]

So, you ping it right off the middle of the bat and it's sailing into the night. You flip your bat in the air and celebrate the home run that's about to be registered against your name.

Only it hits the wall. Oops. Now what, Yasiel Puig?

RUN!!

Run Puig Run!



Somehow, he still gets to third base and does so with an elegant hop.

[TightEnd]

No bets placed or concluded yesterday,and so far as I can tell no activity on any of them ither

Daily Report tomorrow....