Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Tikay I know your looking to build a portfolio for Cheltenham and I'll throw this open to the racing giants on the thread, I've taken the 7-1 available with Ladds for Al Ferof for the Ryanair Chase. This is not NRNB but lots of talk about him going  for this now and a few people on twitter saying he has been confirmed as going for this race.

I would think if he does he will be a lot shorter on the day especially if Cue Card goes elsewhere.

I was thinking about chucking a pony at him myself, but would probably take the 6/1 with BMU NRFB.

Just in case the ground doesn't improve over the next month, and he ends up going in the Champion Chase.

Think we already have £25 on 8/1 on a freebie.  Do we want more?

[Marky147]

Tikay I know your looking to build a portfolio for Cheltenham and I'll throw this open to the racing giants on the thread, I've taken the 7-1 available with Ladds for Al Ferof for the Ryanair Chase. This is not NRNB but lots of talk about him going  for this now and a few people on twitter saying he has been confirmed as going for this race.

I would think if he does he will be a lot shorter on the day especially if Cue Card goes elsewhere.

I was thinking about chucking a pony at him myself, but would probably take the 6/1 with BMU NRFB.

Just in case the ground doesn't improve over the next month, and he ends up going in the Champion Chase.

Think we already have £25 on 8/1 on a freebie.  Do we want more?

I would be quite happy with the £25 @ 8s, but that question is probably better andswered by Adz, Chompy, and Neil

[Ant040689]

Anyone like the West Ham to win to nil? Now down to 13/5.

Also the lay of Man U away to Palace coming up (Palace and the draw double chance/Asian handicap Palace +0.5), its around 6/4? Man U are 4/7 to win at Selhurst, and I am not sure that is a true price.

I really don't like these win to nil bets.  To me it just seems likely they are likely just making an extra margin.  

What percentage of the time, when they win, do you think they win to nil?  Are the bookies assuming it happens less likely than this, or have they got a better grasp of this kind of thing than you have?  

Probably right they are making an extra margin I just threw it out there for someone to comment on with assumably more insight than me. Not trying to tax your intellect either on it as I think it is likely West Ham are going win to nil. The way they set out at the back is superb and Norwich I don't think will have an answer.

Think Nolan is going to pop up for a 1-0.

Think I have a decent eye for football but always am a little unsteady with good prices, which is why I asked for help with it.

[Longy]

I can confirm we are toothless and have done well to get as many points as we have.

[Ant040689]

Anyone like the West Ham to win to nil? Now down to 13/5.

Also the lay of Man U away to Palace coming up (Palace and the draw double chance/Asian handicap Palace +0.5), its around 6/4? Man U are 4/7 to win at Selhurst, and I am not sure that is a true price.

Ant. Genuine question. We have 50-1 on a top ten finish. With, what is it, 13 games left, at what point do you stop chasing the short stuff in between?

At some point there has to be a balance whereby if they lose, then it's a double lose whammy. Conversely chasing small wins when the pot of gold looms seems a bit of a glory hunt.

Fair enough if there is a genuine opportunity to capitalize but I think all things considered I would be happy to just sit back and enjoy the ride, especially in that game. It really isn't that wrong a price IMHO.

Answer to that from me is there is probably a genuine chance to capitalise. Think you rammed home the point to me before that value is value and where you see it you should get on.

If I am wrong about it then fair play only trying to be of use and again am always interested in other's viewpoints, and it's been mixed from what I have seen.

Been a decent judge on Palace so far and got similar resistance when I put up Palace to stay up at 17/4.

Just think Man U shouldn't be that short, if you are not interested in 6/4 on the double chance take the 11/2 maybe?

[Doobs]

Anyone like the West Ham to win to nil? Now down to 13/5.

Also the lay of Man U away to Palace coming up (Palace and the draw double chance/Asian handicap Palace +0.5), its around 6/4? Man U are 4/7 to win at Selhurst, and I am not sure that is a true price.

I really don't like these win to nil bets.  To me it just seems likely they are likely just making an extra margin.  

What percentage of the time, when they win, do you think they win to nil?  Are the bookies assuming it happens less likely than this, or have they got a better grasp of this kind of thing than you have?  

Probably right they are making an extra margin I just threw it out there for someone to comment on with assumably more insight than me. Not trying to tax your intellect either on it as I think it is likely West Ham are going win to nil. The way they set out at the back is superb and Norwich I don't think will have an answer.

Think Nolan is going to pop up for a 1-0.

Think I have a decent eye for football but always am a little unsteady with good prices, which is why I asked for help with it.

Ant, knowing the proportion in the time they win to nil is absolutely key to recognising if this bet is value.  Knowing they are going to win to nil quite often puts you behind the bookies, not ahead.

[Doobs]

Tikay I know your looking to build a portfolio for Cheltenham and I'll throw this open to the racing giants on the thread, I've taken the 7-1 available with Ladds for Al Ferof for the Ryanair Chase. This is not NRNB but lots of talk about him going  for this now and a few people on twitter saying he has been confirmed as going for this race.

I would think if he does he will be a lot shorter on the day especially if Cue Card goes elsewhere.

I was thinking about chucking a pony at him myself, but would probably take the 6/1 with BMU NRFB.

Just in case the ground doesn't improve over the next month, and he ends up going in the Champion Chase.

Think we already have £25 on 8/1 on a freebie.  Do we want more?

We have 7/1, I just checked.  Sorry

[Omm]

Tikay I know your looking to build a portfolio for Cheltenham and I'll throw this open to the racing giants on the thread, I've taken the 7-1 available with Ladds for Al Ferof for the Ryanair Chase. This is not NRNB but lots of talk about him going  for this now and a few people on twitter saying he has been confirmed as going for this race.

I would think if he does he will be a lot shorter on the day especially if Cue Card goes elsewhere.

I was thinking about chucking a pony at him myself, but would probably take the 6/1 with BMU NRFB.

Just in case the ground doesn't improve over the next month, and he ends up going in the Champion Chase.

Think we already have £25 on 8/1 on a freebie.  Do we want more?

We have 7/1, I just checked.  Sorry

I missed that on the spreadsheet, looks like a nice position now.

[TightEnd]

West Ham have 5 clean sheets in 12 league games at home this season, so thats the short term sample for incidence of "results" to Nil

Norwich have scored nine goals in their away games total, and have one goal in their last six games

Hooper has, iirc, 6 goals since he was fit. Nobody else over 3


If that helps your debate

[tikay]

Thanks for all the stuff.

Been busy all day with UKPC stuff, so I'm 6 pages behind, & am working tonight (with Cambridge Alex, on the Show) so I'll try & get back up to speed tomorrow morning.

I really ought to retire, am spinning way too many plates.

[Ironside]

ok this weekend see the FA cup coming back into play

city arsenal Chelsea and Liverpool all play each other so 2 of them are going out
but all of them have bigger fish to fry anyway
everton are also going to be more concerned with trying to get in top 4 than they would be with FA cup

Sunderland Hull Cardiff and Swansea are all in a relegation dogfight and FA cup will be way down on there list of priorities

leaving just Southampton of the premier with nothing to play for apart from FA cup
yeah obviously they are still a couple of points away from officially being safe but most bookies aren't offering odds on them going down now

the saints have given the top 5 teams still left in the FA cup good close games this season and with them likely to be putting out
there strongest team in the cup i think the 15.0 available at ladbrookes is value (only 10.0 at stan james and 11.0 at billy hills,coral and sky)

ok its known i am a saints fan and i have rose tinted specs on
i would recommend £5 or £10 to win @ 15.0 but would love some back from the elders
or even a knock back or 2

[TightEnd]

I quite like this. Certainly a team that could do well, good defence, no Europe to worry about, goals up top, young/hungry players

No Idea if 15 is value, but for small money I don't mind


currently the thread has

May-2014   Football   FA Cup   Chelsea   6/1   25            free bet

which got a tough draw in the 5th round!

[TightEnd]

feedback please

looking at this line up, what formation would you say?

Albrighton, Bacuna, Agbonlahor, Benteke, three centre backs?

3-5-2?

You can get 80/1 Bertrand FGS playing left wing-back (I think)

Click to see full-size image.

[Bad Beat]

 A good judge who I don't think knows about TFT texted me around the time you posted to suggest the same thing Tighty. He said take 50/1 and 18/1 anytime.

 I sort of liked Villa and goals anyway.

[Ant040689]

Anyone like the West Ham to win to nil? Now down to 13/5.

Also the lay of Man U away to Palace coming up (Palace and the draw double chance/Asian handicap Palace +0.5), its around 6/4? Man U are 4/7 to win at Selhurst, and I am not sure that is a true price.

I really don't like these win to nil bets.  To me it just seems likely they are likely just making an extra margin.  

What percentage of the time, when they win, do you think they win to nil?  Are the bookies assuming it happens less likely than this, or have they got a better grasp of this kind of thing than you have?  

Probably right they are making an extra margin I just threw it out there for someone to comment on with assumably more insight than me. Not trying to tax your intellect either on it as I think it is likely West Ham are going win to nil. The way they set out at the back is superb and Norwich I don't think will have an answer.

Think Nolan is going to pop up for a 1-0.

Think I have a decent eye for football but always am a little unsteady with good prices, which is why I asked for help with it.

Ant, knowing the proportion in the time they win to nil is absolutely key to recognising if this bet is value.  Knowing they are going to win to nil quite often puts you behind the bookies, not ahead.

Right, fair play. I want this ignorance gone from me on deciding whether or not a bet should be done at a certain price. Like you have said no point thinking something is going to happen if the bookies are offering odds that do not make mathematical sense for you to get on at.

Which brings me to a wider question about how do you create your own price for any market in particular? I know there are different variables for any sport and bet, but how do you quantify them to link in with other variables and eventually land at a price. How do the maths work? Also how do you assign more weight to the more influential variables?

There must be loads of variables, so assume the way you beat the bookie involves having a better knowledge of them in at least one area for you to alter the true price and for there to be value in something they have perhaps overlooked. But basically the average punter, me included, do not know how to structure all of these variables, give them a relevant weight of importance, and eventually land at a price for different markets, so we can indeed see there is value and place a bet. Obviously betting a much bigger bet when the chasm between your price and theirs is bigger.

Ultimately from all of what I have said above I am looking for a book recommend or some sort of good source of whole information that if i was to memorise and implement I wouldn't have to bother you Doobs or anyone else with me having piss poor awareness of pricing, and may eventually get to a state whereby I can contribute to thread with both sound Maths and good insight. Basically I feel like I am decent potential but have no fucking idea what I am doing. So advice on any of the above from shrewdites would be exceptional and ultimately i am prepared to put a lot of hard work into studying just need to make sure what i am reading is worthy and perhaps someone can direct me to something that is very good. It is hard to do this by yourself because it is hard to know what sources exactly to trust or maybe it isn't I don't know, I am asking for help.

So is there a betting bible relevant to today to read that once understood I will be on the right road and less taxing on all of you please? Any help would be wildly appreciated. I suppose it could end up on me contributing better bets to thread so great info here on where to start or via pm, could line your pockets with moolah if i do eventually get any flair for it, and trust me I am not arrogant enough to think i will, I just would like to try.