Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Hi Tony,

I'm going to put up a small golf outright bet, which I have staked with a view to the uncertainty re the weather forecast this week.

Suggest £20 ew on Steve Stricker in the US golf at 28/1 with Stan or Sporting bet. Its slightly bigger when you take off commision on BF but the small bit we lose on the win part there we make up more in the place price as most books are paying out a 1/4 6 places on the event.

It's a spot I have sort of been waiting for on the US tour really as Stricker is a much better player on bent grass greens which is the type used this week and also many of the tournies later in the year. In a Ryder Cup year he has decided to have a very light opening to the season and hasn't played too many events( 4 top tens from nine, which includes a win too)  with a view to being fresher later in the year when the courses that use bent grass appear on the schedule more often and of course the Ryder cup takes place.

He won this event last year( and he has a good record when returning to defend titles) and  all 8 rounds he has had here in the last 2 years were under par and its a course that suits accurate drivers and players with good GIR stats and doesn't favour the longer hitters, which is something that puts him at a disadvantage on long courses. Last years top three here were all ranked in the top five for driving accuracy and not sighted at the top end of the driving distance stats.

The one iffy part of the week is the weather forecast. The course is very firm due to the super high temperatures they have had recently but there is rain forecast late 2morrow and early Friday which is Strickers half of the draw.  I'm looking at it this way, with the course being firm it might actually be an advantage to play when there is a little rain as it will take the sting out of the greens and allow more control of the ball. There are thunderstorms forecast for Friday am but they wont be anywhere near the course if they do arrive and then of course when you do get back on course it is softer and more receptive than it might have been without the rain. If there are delays I wouldn't be surprised if the other half of the draw end up finishing their second rounds on Saturday morning.

Because the forecast is a bit tricky to read I have had 3/4 of what I was going to have on myself and is the reason I have staked a small part of one max bet on the thread.

cheers

We got it.

£25 EW, with Sporting Bet, Mr Stricker to win The Memorial, 30/1, quarter odds top 6.

Thanks Phil.

ON

 Bet Type: Single
the Memorial Tournament - May 31st - June 3rd Outright Winner
Steve Stricker
30/1
Golf Each Way: 1/4 1 - 6
Possible Payout 987.50 GBP
2 bets @
25.00 GBP 
Total Cost: 50.00 GBP Total Possible Payout
(inc. stake): 987.50 GBP

[ACE2M]

I'd like to propose 3 bets.

I want to oppose George Coetzee in the Welsh Open golf.

Recommend you back against him in 3 72 hole match bets.

Mannasaro to beat Coetzee
Noren to beat Coetzee
Siem to beat Coetzee

All around evens or a shade under.

His record on this course is horrific
His swing looks horrible at the moment - totally off balance, constantly fighting with it.
I suspect he might be living the high life a bit, seems a bit fatter than last year and looks knackered half way round come saturday
He's incapable of 4 good rounds at the moment

He did have a decent round to close at the PGA and he's qualified for the US open but walton heath is not a tough course.

How do you feel about Larrazabal v Coetzee @ 11/10 (on Wm Hill) ?

Yep, add him in to . I fell out with hills a few years ago. dopn't even go on their site.

[tikay]

Ladbrokes have an offer

Bet £20 or more on the Euros Top Tournament Goalscorer and get a free £5 bet* every time they score!

So £20 on Gomez at 8-1 seems good to me.



*refer to Dubai's post on the best way to use free bets.

Ooh, that's a good one for the Euro12 bet-basket, it has longevity & fun all over it, & it's cheap, too.

He's got a ton of goals for BM, nearly 100 in 2 seasons I think. The Bundesliga might not be the worl'ds toughest, but he has 20 for BM in just 2 CL campaigns, so that's top drawer.

We have £20 with Laddies, @ 8/1, Gomez top goalscorer, with a £5 Free Bet for every goal scored. He may just score 1, but we might cover the stake with the freebie fiver!

For Thread Accounting, every goal he scores will be deemed to add £5 to the return (if any) of the bet. I'll then use the £5's as & when appropriate.

Excelent value, I think. And hope.

Thanks.

ON

 Selection8/1 - Mario Gomez

EventEuro 2012 European Championship

MarketTop tournament goalscorer
 Your bets (1) Single - Mario Gomez
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £180.00
Time: 30/05/12 15:38
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000052

[MereNovice]

Is Mario Gomez the guy who couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo in the Champion's League final?

[tikay]

May i suggest:

baseball
100quid on Colorado to beat houston @ 1.65 with william hill

Colorado have won the first two matches of the series which should give them great confidence coming into this match.

Pitchers: Our pitcher is a rookie and i have  been very impressed with him this year, Friedrich dominate the Padres and Giants to the tune of a 1.38 ERA and 17 K's in 13 innings over his first couple of outings. As any rookie it is a steep learning curve which he received at the hands of seattle getting belted all over the park giving up 8 runs!!!! But this is where the young fella really impressed me in his last outing after this hammering he came back firing  Friedrich gave up seven hits and three earned runs in five innings on Friday, striking out six and walking one while collecting a victory against a very good Cincinnati side.

There pitcher lucas harrell has been very good this year also quite new to the mlb scene, Harrell has a solid 3.27 ERA this month, but has failed to complete six innings in four starts. He’s also allowed a 1.50 WHIP during that stretch, suggesting that the ERA may not be sustainable.

main hitters:
Our team- over the last few games our hitters have been on fire with over the last seven games:
averages over last 7 games:
Pacheco, .308  
Gonzalez, .360 and 2 home runs
Tulowitzki, .458 and 3 home runs
Fowler, .667 and 2 home runs
scutaro .261
helton .313 and 1 home run
cuddyer .143 and 1 home run
rosario .364 and 1 home run

There team- averages over the last 7 games
lee .385 average
johnson .316
scahfer .385
lowrie .227 and 1 home run
altuve .222
bogandiv .278 and 1 home run
martinez .263 and 1 home run

so i give our hitter a big advantage, also hitting loads of home runs of late which isnt a bad thing

You most certainly CAN suggest, Mr Singhee.

First, a stupid stat, "stupid" because it is based on an irrelevant & tiny sample size. But......

Baseball has the best ROI of ALL our sports. Shame it it only based on 3 bets!

It is the 5th most profitable sport for the thread. To be fair, we only have 6 "profitable" sports (so far), but we ought to play the mini-rush.

We have £80 @ 5/8 with Wm Hill, Colorado to beat Houston.

The ballgame starts at 1.40am tomorrow morning.

Thanks, & good luck us.

ON

 31 May 2012 - HOU Astros (L Harrell) @ COL Rockies (C Friedrich) - Money Line

COL Rockies (C Friedrich) @ 5/8

Stake : £80.00


Estimated Returns : £130.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000018/F

[tikay]

Is Mario Gomez the guy who couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo in the Champion's League final?

You got him. It was a very small cow, mind.

[horseplayer]

nothing to do with betting but thought plenty might enjoy this

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2012/may/29/the-sids-2012-la-liga

superb from sid lowe as ever

[MereNovice]

A quick Google Image search for "cow's arse with a banjo" produced this:

No comment.

[tikay]

I'd like to propose 3 bets.

I want to oppose George Coetzee in the Welsh Open golf.

Recommend you back against him in 3 72 hole match bets.

Mannasaro to beat Coetzee
Noren to beat Coetzee
Siem to beat Coetzee

All around evens or a shade under.

His record on this course is horrific
His swing looks horrible at the moment - totally off balance, constantly fighting with it.
I suspect he might be living the high life a bit, seems a bit fatter than last year and looks knackered half way round come saturday
He's incapable of 4 good rounds at the moment

He did have a decent round to close at the PGA and he's qualified for the US open but walton heath is not a tough course.

Really had to think about this one, Tom, If Coetzee runs hot, we might be in a world of pain!

I considered doing doubles & trebles, or even just a treble, but decided to invoke my Nit Clause, & went for three singles in the end. I imagine many will go the dubs & trebs route though.

All three are on.

Bit of an Admin Nightmare, too, had to use three different Accounts. The Siem one is with Betfair & is only partially matched so far, but I'm sure it will be fine.

We have £55 @ 10/11 on Blue Square for Manassero.

£50 @ Evens with Sporting Bet for Noren.

£50 (partially matched) with Betfair for Siem.

ON

Selection Matteo Manassero @ 10/11 
Market
 Tournament Matches
 
Event
 ISPS Handa Wales Open
Tournament Matches - George Coetzee v Matteo Manassero
2012-05-31 08:35:00
 

Unit Stake
 £55.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £55.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-05-30 15:58:01
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000037
 
____________________


Single Selections
George Coetzee v Alexander Noren
Alexander Noren
(72 Hole Match Bet)
Odds:  1/1
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  100.00

___________________________

Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
Tournament Matchbets
Marcel SiemCoetzee v Siem    1.95 £28.62 £27.19
Partially Matched
Bet Ref: 20195717439 Bet submitted: 2012-05-30T15:03:34.000Z
 

[Simon Galloway]

Doubt they will take multiples on that, due to conditional probability, (i.e. they won't be seen as independent events)

[ACE2M]

I'd like to propose 3 bets.

I want to oppose George Coetzee in the Welsh Open golf.

Recommend you back against him in 3 72 hole match bets.

Mannasaro to beat Coetzee
Noren to beat Coetzee
Siem to beat Coetzee

All around evens or a shade under.

His record on this course is horrific
His swing looks horrible at the moment - totally off balance, constantly fighting with it.
I suspect he might be living the high life a bit, seems a bit fatter than last year and looks knackered half way round come saturday
He's incapable of 4 good rounds at the moment

He did have a decent round to close at the PGA and he's qualified for the US open but walton heath is not a tough course.

Really had to think about this one, Tom, If Coetzee runs hot, we might be in a world of pain!

I considered doing doubles & trebles, or even just a treble, but decided to invoke my Nit Clause, & went for three singles in the end. I imagine many will go the dubs & trebs route though.

All three are on.

Bit of an Admin Nightmare, too, had to use three different Accounts. The Siem one is with Betfair & is only partially matched so far, but I'm sure it will be fine.

We have £55 @ 10/11 on Blue Square for Manassero.

£50 @ Evens with Sporting Bet for Noren.

£50 (partially matched) with Betfair for Siem.

ON

Selection Matteo Manassero @ 10/11 
Market
 Tournament Matches
 
Event
 ISPS Handa Wales Open
Tournament Matches - George Coetzee v Matteo Manassero
2012-05-31 08:35:00
 

Unit Stake
 £55.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £55.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-05-30 15:58:01
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000037
 
____________________


Single Selections
George Coetzee v Alexander Noren
Alexander Noren
(72 Hole Match Bet)
Odds:  1/1
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  100.00

___________________________

Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
Tournament Matchbets
Marcel SiemCoetzee v Siem    1.95 £28.62 £27.19
Partially Matched
Bet Ref: 20195717439 Bet submitted: 2012-05-30T15:03:34.000Z
 

sounds prudent given current run. GL

[horseplayer]

roach is out of the rest of the series with shin splints

good news for the 3-0

[MereNovice]

Agnieska Radwanska v Venus Williams is just about to start.
Coverage is on Eurosport (Sky ch410).
Also on ITV4 (Sky ch120) if you prefer.

[Singheee]

May i suggest:

baseball
100quid on Colorado to beat houston @ 1.65 with william hill

Colorado have won the first two matches of the series which should give them great confidence coming into this match.

Pitchers: Our pitcher is a rookie and i have  been very impressed with him this year, Friedrich dominate the Padres and Giants to the tune of a 1.38 ERA and 17 K's in 13 innings over his first couple of outings. As any rookie it is a steep learning curve which he received at the hands of seattle getting belted all over the park giving up 8 runs!!!! But this is where the young fella really impressed me in his last outing after this hammering he came back firing  Friedrich gave up seven hits and three earned runs in five innings on Friday, striking out six and walking one while collecting a victory against a very good Cincinnati side.

There pitcher lucas harrell has been very good this year also quite new to the mlb scene, Harrell has a solid 3.27 ERA this month, but has failed to complete six innings in four starts. He’s also allowed a 1.50 WHIP during that stretch, suggesting that the ERA may not be sustainable.

main hitters:
Our team- over the last few games our hitters have been on fire with over the last seven games:
averages over last 7 games:
Pacheco, .308  
Gonzalez, .360 and 2 home runs
Tulowitzki, .458 and 3 home runs
Fowler, .667 and 2 home runs
scutaro .261
helton .313 and 1 home run
cuddyer .143 and 1 home run
rosario .364 and 1 home run

There team- averages over the last 7 games
lee .385 average
johnson .316
scahfer .385
lowrie .227 and 1 home run
altuve .222
bogandiv .278 and 1 home run
martinez .263 and 1 home run

so i give our hitter a big advantage, also hitting loads of home runs of late which isnt a bad thing

You most certainly CAN suggest, Mr Singhee.

First, a stupid stat, "stupid" because it is based on an irrelevant & tiny sample size. But......

Baseball has the best ROI of ALL our sports. Shame it it only based on 3 bets!

It is the 5th most profitable sport for the thread. To be fair, we only have 6 "profitable" sports (so far), but we ought to play the mini-rush.

We have £80 @ 5/8 with Wm Hill, Colorado to beat Houston.

The ballgame starts at 1.40am tomorrow morning.

Thanks, & good luck us.

ON

 31 May 2012 - HOU Astros (L Harrell) @ COL Rockies (C Friedrich) - Money Line

COL Rockies (C Friedrich) @ 5/8

Stake : £80.00


Estimated Returns : £130.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000018/F

imo when it comes to baseball this is one of the most important stats as it shows current form, for example albert pujols if i told you he has a average of .238 for the season with 8 home runs, his stats for his last 7 are .393 with 4 home runs!! so it shows that he is on fire at the mo! i do see your point but i wouldnt call it a stupid stat

[MereNovice]

May i suggest:

baseball
100quid on Colorado to beat houston @ 1.65 with william hill

Colorado have won the first two matches of the series which should give them great confidence coming into this match.

Pitchers: Our pitcher is a rookie and i have  been very impressed with him this year, Friedrich dominate the Padres and Giants to the tune of a 1.38 ERA and 17 K's in 13 innings over his first couple of outings. As any rookie it is a steep learning curve which he received at the hands of seattle getting belted all over the park giving up 8 runs!!!! But this is where the young fella really impressed me in his last outing after this hammering he came back firing  Friedrich gave up seven hits and three earned runs in five innings on Friday, striking out six and walking one while collecting a victory against a very good Cincinnati side.

There pitcher lucas harrell has been very good this year also quite new to the mlb scene, Harrell has a solid 3.27 ERA this month, but has failed to complete six innings in four starts. He’s also allowed a 1.50 WHIP during that stretch, suggesting that the ERA may not be sustainable.

main hitters:
Our team- over the last few games our hitters have been on fire with over the last seven games:
averages over last 7 games:
Pacheco, .308  
Gonzalez, .360 and 2 home runs
Tulowitzki, .458 and 3 home runs
Fowler, .667 and 2 home runs
scutaro .261
helton .313 and 1 home run
cuddyer .143 and 1 home run
rosario .364 and 1 home run

There team- averages over the last 7 games
lee .385 average
johnson .316
scahfer .385
lowrie .227 and 1 home run
altuve .222
bogandiv .278 and 1 home run
martinez .263 and 1 home run

so i give our hitter a big advantage, also hitting loads of home runs of late which isnt a bad thing

You most certainly CAN suggest, Mr Singhee.

First, a stupid stat, "stupid" because it is based on an irrelevant & tiny sample size. But......

Baseball has the best ROI of ALL our sports. Shame it it only based on 3 bets!

It is the 5th most profitable sport for the thread. To be fair, we only have 6 "profitable" sports (so far), but we ought to play the mini-rush.

We have £80 @ 5/8 with Wm Hill, Colorado to beat Houston.

The ballgame starts at 1.40am tomorrow morning.

Thanks, & good luck us.

ON

 31 May 2012 - HOU Astros (L Harrell) @ COL Rockies (C Friedrich) - Money Line

COL Rockies (C Friedrich) @ 5/8

Stake : £80.00


Estimated Returns : £130.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000018/F

imo when it comes to baseball this is one of the most important stats as it shows current form, for example albert pujols if i told you he has a average of .238 for the season with 8 home runs, his stats for his last 7 are .393 with 4 home runs!! so it shows that he is on fire at the mo! i do see your point but i wouldnt call it a stupid stat

Don't worry, he's not calling your stats stupid.
He's saying that basing decisions on the thread ROI for baseball bets is "stupid".
The stats that you have listed are excellent - very helpful.