Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

A bit of a Banzai here.

Power Rock is 150/1 on betfair for the Derby.

He was 3rd in the Ballysax and 2nd in the Derrinstown.

He is probably in as a pacemaker, but looks likely to stay 12 furlongs.  In a weak Derby, with an odds on jolly, then I just have a feeling.  Given Camelot's speed, there is always a reasonable chance he won't stay.

He was clearly pacemaking for Wrote in the Derrinstown, but him and the first pull 7 lengths clear (the first isn't in the Derby).  Wrote went on to finish 4 lengths off the leader in a weak looking Irish 2000.  But Wrote may have killed his chance by going too quick.

His overall form isn't nearly good enough, but there seems a small chance that he is genuinely improving.  He is only 66s with the bookies to deter the each way thieves, so full on proper banzai win only it is.

Anyway the Derrinstown is here.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=793671#topHorseTabs=horse_stories&bottomHorseTabs=horse_entries

Don't go crazy, I have only put £15 on myself.

I have a niggling worry about this bet.  Since last night there has been a couple of periods where the horse has shortened, but then it has been pushed right out again.  

I think there must be a decent chance that we are backing a non runner.  I expect it will still be a big price when we lose the ante post risk (presumably tomorrow).  

So I think we should now hold off until tomorrow.  I can't be bothered laying off for £15.

Its shortened because of me I think Doobs  

Bet Status: The following bets were successfully matched Current Odds bets   Order by Matched Date  
  
Tower Rock  140  £32.90  £4,573.10  
Ref: Bet matched:
  
 160  £2.10  £333.90  
Ref: Bet matched:
  
With Camelot being a late arriving horse the pacemaker may just have a chance to hold on

It isn't the shortening that is worrying me. It is the fact someone has probably laid five figures since last night and keeps happily pushing it out again.  He may well believe the horse is shite, but he may well know the horse is not running.  I am not close enough to Ballydoyle to know the answer, so figured it was probably better to wait a day and back at 130.  

Of course I hope I am wrong on this and the horse runs

[Doobs]

Just checked again and he is now 180.  Apologies to any backers, but I think we have a non runner.

[bobby1]

Hi Tony,

I'm going to put up a small golf outright bet, which I have staked with a view to the uncertainty re the weather forecast this week.

Suggest £20 ew on Steve Stricker in the US golf at 28/1 with Stan or Sporting bet. Its slightly bigger when you take off commision on BF but the small bit we lose on the win part there we make up more in the place price as most books are paying out a 1/4 6 places on the event.

It's a spot I have kinda been waiting for on the US tour really as Stricker is a much better player on bent grass greens which is the type used this week and also many of the tournies later in the year. In a Ryder Cup year he has decided to have a very light opening to the season and hasn't played too many events( 4 top tens from nine, which includes a win too)  with a view to being fresher later in the year when the courses that use bent grass appear on the schedule more often and of course the Ryder cup takes place.

He won this event last year( and he has a good record when returning to defend titles) and  all 8 rounds he has had here in the last 2 years were under par and its a course that suits accurate drivers and players with good GIR stats and doesn't favour the longer hitters, which is something that puts him at a disadvantage on long courses. Last years top three here were all ranked in the top five for driving accuracy and not sighted at the top end of the driving distance stats.

The one iffy part of the week is the weather forecast. The course is very firm due to the super high temperatures they have had recently but there is rain forecast late 2morrow and early Friday which is Strickers half of the draw.  I'm looking at it this way, with the course being firm it might actually be an advantage to play when there is a little rain as it will take the sting out of the greens and allow more control of the ball. There are thunderstorms forecast for Friday am but they wont be anywhere near the course if they do arrive and then of course when you do get back on course it is softer and more receptive than it might have been without the rain. If there are delays I wouldn't be surprised if the other half of the draw end up finishing their second rounds on Saturday morning.

Because the forecast is a bit tricky to read I have had 3/4 of what I was going to have on myself and is the reason I have staked a small part of one max bet on the thread.

cheers

[smashedagain]

Love these well reasoned and thought out tips. Will be following with keen interest this weekend

[bobby1]

Love these well reasoned and thought out tips. Will be following with keen interest this weekend

Thanks mate, I am in need of an upturn on the profit graph at the moment on the thread. I am deffo one of Simon's to be vetoed list so far tho the prices Ive suggested have been fairly big at times so hopefully its a case of getting one to hit before too long and turning it around.

[TightEnd]

I am about to self-veto. ffs Derbyshire 93-9 against one of the weakest counties

** shakes head, mutters to self***

[tikay]

I am about to self-veto. ffs Derbyshire 93-9 against one of the weakest counties

** shakes head, mutters to self***

Do we get one of those graphs, or a map of Derbyshire?

[tikay]

Hi Tony,

I'm going to put up a small golf outright bet, which I have staked with a view to the uncertainty re the weather forecast this week.

Suggest £20 ew on Steve Stricker in the US golf at 28/1 with Stan or Sporting bet. Its slightly bigger when you take off commision on BF but the small bit we lose on the win part there we make up more in the place price as most books are paying out a 1/4 6 places on the event.

It's a spot I have sort of been waiting for on the US tour really as Stricker is a much better player on bent grass greens which is the type used this week and also many of the tournies later in the year. In a Ryder Cup year he has decided to have a very light opening to the season and hasn't played too many events( 4 top tens from nine, which includes a win too)  with a view to being fresher later in the year when the courses that use bent grass appear on the schedule more often and of course the Ryder cup takes place.

He won this event last year( and he has a good record when returning to defend titles) and  all 8 rounds he has had here in the last 2 years were under par and its a course that suits accurate drivers and players with good GIR stats and doesn't favour the longer hitters, which is something that puts him at a disadvantage on long courses. Last years top three here were all ranked in the top five for driving accuracy and not sighted at the top end of the driving distance stats.

The one iffy part of the week is the weather forecast. The course is very firm due to the super high temperatures they have had recently but there is rain forecast late 2morrow and early Friday which is Strickers half of the draw.  I'm looking at it this way, with the course being firm it might actually be an advantage to play when there is a little rain as it will take the sting out of the greens and allow more control of the ball. There are thunderstorms forecast for Friday am but they wont be anywhere near the course if they do arrive and then of course when you do get back on course it is softer and more receptive than it might have been without the rain. If there are delays I wouldn't be surprised if the other half of the draw end up finishing their second rounds on Saturday morning.

Because the forecast is a bit tricky to read I have had 3/4 of what I was going to have on myself and is the reason I have staked a small part of one max bet on the thread.

cheers

Will invest shortly Phil, thanks.

Bit pre-occupied right now.

[TightEnd]

especially for thread morale

Ladybower reservoir in the Peak District. Where the batsman might be banished to, if I have my way

Click to see full-size image.

[ACE2M]

I'd like to propose 3 bets.

I want to oppose George Coetzee in the Welsh Open golf.

Recommend you back against him in 3 72 hole match bets.

Mannasaro to beat Coetzee
Noren to beat Coetzee
Siem to beat Coetzee

All around evens or a shade under.

His record on this course is horrific
His swing looks horrible at the moment - totally off balance, constantly fighting with it.
I suspect he might be living the high life a bit, seems a bit fatter than last year and looks knackered half way round come saturday
He's incapable of 4 good rounds at the moment

He did have a decent round to close at the PGA and he's qualified for the US open but walton heath is not a tough course.

[tikay]

I'd like to propose 3 bets.

I want to oppose George Coetzee in the Welsh Open golf.

Recommend you back against him in 3 72 hole match bets.

Mannasaro to beat Coetzee
Noren to beat Coetzee
Siem to beat Coetzee

All around evens or a shade under.

His record on this course is horrific
His swing looks horrible at the moment - totally off balance, constantly fighting with it.
I suspect he might be living the high life a bit, seems a bit fatter than last year and looks knackered half way round come saturday
He's incapable of 4 good rounds at the moment

He did have a decent round to close at the PGA and he's qualified for the US open but walton heath is not a tough course.

Thanks Tom, I'll sort those a bit later, I've just got some fires to damp down first.  We WLL be on.

I'm still amazed at that bet you had last week, 6 or 7 players in "match-ups" v one guy, & you got all but one home. Incredible.

And in the World Matchplay, you gave us a huge win with the Rock/Rose/Clarke jobbie.

Lovely stuff.

[maccol]

I'd like to propose 3 bets.

I want to oppose George Coetzee in the Welsh Open golf.

Recommend you back against him in 3 72 hole match bets.

Mannasaro to beat Coetzee
Noren to beat Coetzee
Siem to beat Coetzee

All around evens or a shade under.

His record on this course is horrific
His swing looks horrible at the moment - totally off balance, constantly fighting with it.
I suspect he might be living the high life a bit, seems a bit fatter than last year and looks knackered half way round come saturday
He's incapable of 4 good rounds at the moment

He did have a decent round to close at the PGA and he's qualified for the US open but walton heath is not a tough course.

How do you feel about Larrazabal v Coetzee @ 11/10 (on Wm Hill) ?

[bobby1]

The Stricker price has drifted on BF since I posted that bet Tony, and Sporting bet have followed and pushed him to 30/1 1/4 the first 6.

I'm on at 28/1 so its not a prefect execution by me but if you are going to bet him for the thread then take the 30/1 ew which puts the win part slightly further away than the BF win part but makes the place part better. If not taking win only on BF for the full ew stake is another option but it seems a shame to waste 6 places and top price fixed odds.

I can only really assume that one or two of the players just under the top of the market are drifting as those above and around them have got shorter, the tippers are on fire at the moment and most of those  have been put up by one or the other and that is forcing their prices down on there

[doubleup]

Ladbrokes have an offer

Bet £20 or more on the Euros Top Tournament Goalscorer and get a free £5 bet* every time they score!

So £20 on Gomez at 8-1 seems good to me.



*refer to Dubai's post on the best way to use free bets.

[Singheee]

May i suggest:

baseball
100quid on Colorado to beat houston @ 1.65 with william hill

Colorado have won the first two matches of the series which should give them great confidence coming into this match.

Pitchers: Our pitcher is a rookie and i have  been very impressed with him this year, Friedrich dominate the Padres and Giants to the tune of a 1.38 ERA and 17 K's in 13 innings over his first couple of outings. As any rookie it is a steep learning curve which he received at the hands of seattle getting belted all over the park giving up 8 runs!!!! But this is where the young fella really impressed me in his last outing after this hammering he came back firing  Friedrich gave up seven hits and three earned runs in five innings on Friday, striking out six and walking one while collecting a victory against a very good Cincinnati side.

There pitcher lucas harrell has been very good this year also quite new to the mlb scene, Harrell has a solid 3.27 ERA this month, but has failed to complete six innings in four starts. He’s also allowed a 1.50 WHIP during that stretch, suggesting that the ERA may not be sustainable.

main hitters:
Our team- over the last few games our hitters have been on fire with over the last seven games:
averages over last 7 games:
Pacheco, .308  
Gonzalez, .360 and 2 home runs
Tulowitzki, .458 and 3 home runs
Fowler, .667 and 2 home runs
scutaro .261
helton .313 and 1 home run
cuddyer .143 and 1 home run
rosario .364 and 1 home run

There team- averages over the last 7 games
lee .385 average
johnson .316
scahfer .385
lowrie .227 and 1 home run
altuve .222
bogandiv .278 and 1 home run
martinez .263 and 1 home run

so i give our hitter a big advantage, also hitting loads of home runs of late which isnt a bad thing