Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

World Cup betting
« Sent to: TightEnd on: Today at 03:04:03 AM »
   
I am sending this to you first as I am up late and if I put it on the board the BMU prices will be gone when you get up.  Please copy and paste on the board when you are done.

Just done a bit of maths on the World Cup each way and it is as expected with lots of value in the Argentina half.  Betting each way in the other half is terrible.

Betting on Netherlands is as good as betting on Argentina.  Betting on Mexico is significantly better though.  They are 33/1 in quite a few spots but onlly 11.5/12 to reach the final on Betair.  So you get 16.5/1 the place vs less than 11/1 on Betfair.

USA are OK too (40/1 the place vs 27/28 on Betfair).  Switzerland look really good (62.5/1 the place vs 28/30 on Betfair) and Greece are OK too (62.5/1 vs  36/38 on Betfair).  These prices are going to be less reliable though, so will keep stakes small for this lot even if the maths suggests these bets are even better.  You probably couldn't get much more on anyway.

Suggest starting with BMU, and trying to get £15 e/w on Switzerland at 125/1 and Greece £10 e/w at 125/1.  If you can only get 100/1 (available in a few spots) on Switzerland reduce the stake to £10 e/w and give Greece a miss.

USA are 80/1 in several spots, suggest £10 e/w.

Mexico are 33/1 in several spots, suggest £25 e/w.  I love the Mexico to reach the final part where we get 16/1, they are 37% to go through vs Netherlands, but after that they get what should be the easiest quarter final (Costa Rica or Greece).  The semi might not even be tough either as Argentina aren't nailed on to get past the Swiss and Belgium.  You can see similar with the Swiss, sure they are 20% to get throught this Argentina, but after that 60/1+ is going to look fantastic.

Netherlands are 8/1 betfred/tote/b365/betvictor suggest £35 e/w.  Try the Tote/baldfred/b365 before BMU because you have already got a couple of bets on there, and too many might be suspicious.

Belgium is OK too, but as we are on already, give that a miss and the Costa Rica price looks too low.

My bets were bigger than these, so you should be OK getting them on.  I am sure Tikay will understand when you tell him you have backed everybody.

Cheers

Doobs

The Swiss bet is better than I said in this post.  I realised after I sent it that you could have just backed the Swiss each way with BMU, laid off the place bet on Betfair and left yourself with a free win bet and got some change.  I don't usually arb, but for this that do. 

There wasn't a huge amount waiting to back Switzerland for the final, so I wouldn't go nuts.   FWIW I don't think the Betfair to reach the final price is wrong, it was pretty much bang on what I got by pricing the matches individually.  For instance, if the money all goes and you offer 33/1 somebody should take it. I'd certainly take some at that anyway. 

[TightEnd]

put that in idiots terms please, what do you want me to do?

half the internet is down for me at the moment, a bt thing apparently, including oddschecker, all betting sites, so i am on hold anyway

[Doobs]

put that in idiots terms please, what do you want me to do?

half the internet is down for me at the moment, a bt thing apparently, including oddschecker, all betting sites, so i am on hold anyway

Don't do anything, going out, was just explaining why the Swiss bet is good.  Will expand later.

[arbboy]

put that in idiots terms please, what do you want me to do?

half the internet is down for me at the moment, a bt thing apparently, including oddschecker, all betting sites, so i am on hold anyway

betfair and oddschecker down for me as well but blonde working fine.  I use BT as well.  Why do some sites work and others don't?

[claypole]

Me too as well and I am on BT had tis with to 3G

[arbboy]

why does blonde still work over betfair oddschecker and numerous other sites?  Racing post.com is another site which is still working fine for me as well as blonde fwiw.  Flushy got super powers over BT?

[TightEnd]

why does blonde still work over betfair oddschecker and numerous other sites?  Racing post.com is another site which is still working fine for me as well as blonde fwiw.  Flushy got super powers over BT?

clears throat, prepares to bluff

the BT network has DNS issues, affects access to large swathes of the internet but not all of it

eg facebook ok, twitter down

eg bbc ok

eg blonde ok

it must be down to the various sites DNS locations

looks straight ahead, tries not to give off any bluff tells

[arbboy]

dns?  Denial of Service attack on bt?

[Ironside]

No that's dos, DNS in simple terms like like a postage Storting office

[arbboy]

No that's dos, DNS in simple terms like like a postage Storting office

Nothing simple about that iron.  WTF does that mean a postage storting office?

[Ironside]

When your mail gets delivered it goes to a sorting office then moved round country given to your positive and delivered , everything is smooth till a sorting office shuts dow, even then the Royal Mail copes but when 2,3 ,4 offices close your screwed

[Ironside]

Or another way of putting it we are asking bt to goto a web address but it's lost it's address book and can't work out where we want to go as it's sat nav is fecked

[TightEnd]

back now, hopefully.

anyone want anything for today?


Chompy, what are we doing if anything with Kingston hill?

ground good to firm, they are saying it might not run unless it rains more?

[arbboy]

why has BT lost its address book though?  That's my real question.  What's caused this to happen?

[Karabiner]

Is Serena Williams bomb-proof today?

Would only an ice-cream put any money on her opponent Ms Cornet @ 14/1?