Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Think we should be backing Argies ew at 4/1 with most firms.  1/2 odds 1,2.  So we are getting 2/1 the place and its trading under 6/4 on bf. We have to give up a bit of ev on the win part which is 5.4 on the exchange but we are getting more +ev from the place than we lose on the win.  Thoughts welcome.  It's getting that time when the ew terms are about to change to 1/3 1,2  and the draw is heavily softer towards the argies side so this looks a solid ew bet.

Cheers for that.

Bandit very tired

missed that earlier

£50.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Main Markets
Outright
EW 1/2 1,2    Argentina    4/1    
Total stake   £ 100.00
Estimated return   £ 400.00
Full stake   £ 100.00
Full estimated return   £ 400.00

think the path, theoretically is belgium then the dutch?

Holland and Mexico could be better?

Haven't done the maths, but they are probably more likely to be 2nd than 1st, so the each way should have more value than with Argentina who are going to be favourites vs anyone but Brazil.  This all assumes you can back near Betfair for the win.   Same should be true of Belgium. 

I can't check til later though. 

[TightEnd]

Think we should be backing Argies ew at 4/1 with most firms.  1/2 odds 1,2.  So we are getting 2/1 the place and its trading under 6/4 on bf. We have to give up a bit of ev on the win part which is 5.4 on the exchange but we are getting more +ev from the place than we lose on the win.  Thoughts welcome.  It's getting that time when the ew terms are about to change to 1/3 1,2  and the draw is heavily softer towards the argies side so this looks a solid ew bet.

Cheers for that.

Bandit very tired

missed that earlier

£50.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Main Markets
Outright
EW 1/2 1,2    Argentina    4/1    
Total stake   £ 100.00
Estimated return   £ 400.00
Full stake   £ 100.00
Full estimated return   £ 400.00

think the path, theoretically is belgium then the dutch?

Holland and Mexico could be better?

in what sense? as a bet? or as an argentina opponent?

[sonour]

Also recommend £30 ew on federer 6/1 coral and Nadal 5/1 hills (both 1/2 1,2) the place terms should be 1/3 1,2 now given the make up of the market.  Both win prices are right on or below bf and the place parts are both decent value.

Tyty

[Mark_Porter]

Neil has put ike and rast up for the one drop on Betting Emporium. Both 33/1.

Assume it's good to go here as it's a free article.

[Tal]

Neil has put ike and rast up for the one drop on Betting Emporium. Both 33/1.

Assume it's good to go here as it's a free article.

Both with BMU.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £1077.74

Outstanding Bets £2845.75

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=25

A loss of £20 yesterday with Fabio Airhead losing in 5 seats to Kevin Anderson. Fabio won the first set, lost the second with three successive double faults, won the third, went 1/3 on and then imploded in dramatic fashion showing a temperament so flaky that he makes Suarez look like the Archbishop of Canterbury.

Click to see full-size image.

Onwards

- Better news in the ladies with Wozniacki reaching the last sixteen, and Li Na the number two seed and her potential next opponent losing. Her quarter of the draw has cut up dramatically, and she is second favourite in it to Kvitova the number six seed who beat Venus in a great game

 

- in crickets T20blast Essex beat Somerset to go back top of the South group, now clear at the top with Hampshire losing to Surrey. next week, essex v surrey at chelmsford bopara/ryder and co against kp/dilshan and co

Click to see full-size image.

- the worcestershire/notts and yorks/lancs matches were rained off, 1 point each. this is good news for worcs, top of the table and teams can't catch them if they don't play, and worcs don't lose....

- southampton selling shaw and lallana throws the southampton relegation bet into focus. We'll see who Koeman reinvests in. Southampton will earn more from selling Shaw & Lallana (+/- €68 million) than the Eredivisie receives for TV rights (€61.8 million p/ ssn).

the tables are at http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/english-twenty20/table top 4 from each group through. yorskshire play again today at trent bridge

today at the world cup we have positions in players for brazil, chile, colombia.....and a brazil/colombia double

federer and nadal at wimbledon too

[TightEnd]

World Cup betting
« Sent to: TightEnd on: Today at 03:04:03 AM »
   
I am sending this to you first as I am up late and if I put it on the board the BMU prices will be gone when you get up.  Please copy and paste on the board when you are done.

Just done a bit of maths on the World Cup each way and it is as expected with lots of value in the Argentina half.  Betting each way in the other half is terrible.

Betting on Netherlands is as good as betting on Argentina.  Betting on Mexico is significantly better though.  They are 33/1 in quite a few spots but onlly 11.5/12 to reach the final on Betair.  So you get 16.5/1 the place vs less than 11/1 on Betfair.

USA are OK too (40/1 the place vs 27/28 on Betfair).  Switzerland look really good (62.5/1 the place vs 28/30 on Betfair) and Greece are OK too (62.5/1 vs  36/38 on Betfair).  These prices are going to be less reliable though, so will keep stakes small for this lot even if the maths suggests these bets are even better.  You probably couldn't get much more on anyway.

Suggest starting with BMU, and trying to get £15 e/w on Switzerland at 125/1 and Greece £10 e/w at 125/1.  If you can only get 100/1 (available in a few spots) on Switzerland reduce the stake to £10 e/w and give Greece a miss.

USA are 80/1 in several spots, suggest £10 e/w.

Mexico are 33/1 in several spots, suggest £25 e/w.  I love the Mexico to reach the final part where we get 16/1, they are 37% to go through vs Netherlands, but after that they get what should be the easiest quarter final (Costa Rica or Greece).  The semi might not even be tough either as Argentina aren't nailed on to get past the Swiss and Belgium.  You can see similar with the Swiss, sure they are 20% to get throught this Argentina, but after that 60/1+ is going to look fantastic.

Netherlands are 8/1 betfred/tote/b365/betvictor suggest £35 e/w.  Try the Tote/baldfred/b365 before BMU because you have already got a couple of bets on there, and too many might be suspicious.

Belgium is OK too, but as we are on already, give that a miss and the Costa Rica price looks too low.

My bets were bigger than these, so you should be OK getting them on.  I am sure Tikay will understand when you tell him you have backed everybody.

Cheers

Doobs

[TightEnd]

£25.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Main Markets
Outright
EW 1/2 1,2    Mexico    33/1    
Total stake   £ 50.00
Estimated return   £ 1,287.50
Bet ref: 373/406 £35.00 Single

Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Main Markets
Outright
EW 1/2 1,2    Holland    8/1    
Total stake   £ 70.00
Estimated return   £ 490.00
Full stake   £ 120.00
Full estimated return   £ 1,777.50

[TightEnd]

To Win The World Cup Switzerland (EW) (Outright - Outright) Odds: 125/1 Stake: 30.00 Possible Return:  2842.50
To Win The World Cup Greece (EW) (Outright - Outright) Odds: 125/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  1895.00
To Win The World Cup USA (EW) (Outright - Outright) Odds: 80/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  1220.00

all e/w 1/2 1,2

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/brazil-v-chile/total-booking-points

Like the over 30.5 booking points here with 888 at 4/5

Chile ramping the pressure up on Webb this game traditionally is fiery and despite the reluctance of cards so far i cant envisage Webb being willing to let the game flow again like when he took the Dutch Spain final.

£30

Also like Silva and Luiz to score first/anytime. Cant justify the prices as "value" just small bets for me.

gd lk all

[horseplayer]

This is also interesting market

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/brazil-v-chile/time-of-first-booking

Like the under 35 mins with beteveryday of the year here to for the reasons above.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/brazil-v-chile/total-booking-points

Like the over 30.5 booking points here with 888 at 4/5

Chile ramping the pressure up on Webb this game traditionally is fiery and despite the reluctance of cards so far i cant envisage Webb being willing to let the game flow again like when he took the Dutch Spain final.

£30

Also like Silva and Luiz to score first/anytime. Cant justify the prices as "value" just small bets for me.

gd lk all

No 888 I am afraid

the only quote on their i could do would be over 55 points 5/2 ladbrokes. which didn't look the worst bet in the world

i note the chile outright price is getting fun

[horseplayer]

Finding it very hard not to back Chile.... If i was backing Brazil i would much rather back btts

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/brazil-v-chile/total-booking-points

Like the over 30.5 booking points here with 888 at 4/5

Chile ramping the pressure up on Webb this game traditionally is fiery and despite the reluctance of cards so far i cant envisage Webb being willing to let the game flow again like when he took the Dutch Spain final.

£30

Also like Silva and Luiz to score first/anytime. Cant justify the prices as "value" just small bets for me.

gd lk all

No 888 I am afraid

the only quote on their i could do would be over 55 points 5/2 ladbrokes. which didn't look the worst bet in the world

i note the chile outright price is getting fun

been a bit stupid

Plenty of evens about (365 for example) over 3.5 which in essence is the same thing

Dont do what i did and read 888 as 3 or more obv needs 4 to cop on both bets

Back to bed i think!

[horseplayer]

Quick quiz who is this who is still in the world cup now in a capacity in a former life? Nice tackle btw






I got the ball guv!