Tips for Tikay

[Nico29]

I think the market is overrating an average Costa Rica side and underrating an ok Greece one.

Think Colombia's performance yesterday highlighted this, as did Uruguay's.

Personally think Greece on dnb or asians is way to go as the draw is a huge player.

Saying Greece are meh and Costa Rica should win is just guessing imo and not assessing value correctly.

If you believe Greece are even worse than the market has made them and Costa Rica are even better then by all means pile on.

Go Greece!

[Ironside]

Sorry  to qualify Greece would be good value at 2-1 but to win in normal time I would go 3-1 at least I am just waking up again if you can get 2-1 for Greece to qualify I think it's amazing value

[TightEnd]

greece are 11/10 to qualify

i agree with Nico, and disagree with Ironside who has given us the consensus view

we'll see later.

[horseplayer]

Would probably have C Rica as favs  but maybe a touch bigger

The England game can be easily ignored infact a lot of the team looked to be having a warm up throughout. So you could easily argue they should be fresher than the greeks here.

no bet for me

[Doobs]

ok another one

Colombia have to be real value at 3.9 or 2/1 to qualify to beat the worst Brazil side in ages?

colombia can play 1 up, 2 up, rodriguez anywhere across the top 3, 2 centre backs, 3 centre backs, maruading full backs..lots of tactical flexibility

brazil have one defender i rate (silva), the full backs are caught up field a lot, will miss luis gustavo who sits v deep, neymar is nicked up, have no number nine that will worry any opponent..

15/4 fixed odds available....

Am all over Colombia in that game.  Each time I see them they look really good.  It is much nearer a coin flip for me. 

[sonour]

Holland v Mexico

No goal scorer 12.0

Lay 0-0 at 10.5

£111.76 profit per £1000

Scoop if only own goals scored in the match

The scoop is £12,000 per thousand

Wish me luck

[doubleup]

Holland v Mexico

No goal scorer 12.0

Lay 0-0 at 10.5

£111.76 profit per £1000

Scoop if only own goals scored in the match

The scoop is £12,000 per thousand

Wish me luck

low probability high impact - good luck

[Tal]

As Cycling Threadites will have noticed, I've tried to squeeze another sport into my tellybox in the last year or so. I've also decided to propose a bet on the Tour de Yorkshire France. Ice cream stuff follows...

I've no interest personally in sweating an even money shot for several weeks. so let's look beyond Froome. Contador is second, who comes with his own baggage but is an obvious challenger. He has just lost a big member of his support team, but a fair second favourite.

We then look at who else could challenge. It seems to me best to look at the teams, because there's only so many surprises at the very top of General Classification. This is a demanding course with lots of summit finishes and will really test the supporting climbers. There's also a stage with cobbles, which will test the thin guys who like mountains. The natural choices seem to be Nibali of Astana and Valverde of Movistar.

Valverde has had a good few months and has got the nod ahead of Quintana as leader for this Tour, with Quintana getting the Giro. Quintana is an excellent climber and Movistar generally seems to have a wealth of South American climbing stagenickers. Valverde is going to get plenty of support, just as Sir Wiggo had Froome.

The red shouty man, bet each day of the year and Mr Parr go 16/1 with three places each way for 1/4 odds, so that's 4/1 to finish third, if we assume above is a straight fight for the maillot jaune. I'm wondering whether part of this price is as a result of how much love there is for the top two, thereby forcing the bookies to push the others out. If so, we should snaffle.

I also quite fancy a Tour sweat.

Recommend £20 each way on Alejandro Valverde to win the Tour de France with one of the three companies above.

Obviously, Fred, wait to see what the two wheeler Elders say before taking any affirmative action.

[Tal]

As an aside, you can get 5/2 on a top three finish. My thought process was to go for 16/1 each way, as he's the third or fourth most likely person to win in a field of a dozen or so theoretically possible winners, so the win part still has value.

Happy to take views on that.

[cheapwetsuit]

As Cycling Threadites will have noticed, I've tried to squeeze another sport into my tellybox in the last year or so. I've also decided to propose a bet on the Tour de Yorkshire France. Ice cream stuff follows...

I've no interest personally in sweating an even money shot for several weeks. so let's look beyond Froome. Contador is second, who comes with his own baggage but is an obvious challenger. He has just lost a big member of his support team, but a fair second favourite.

We then look at who else could challenge. It seems to me best to look at the teams, because there's only so many surprises at the very top of General Classification. This is a demanding course with lots of summit finishes and will really test the supporting climbers. There's also a stage with cobbles, which will test the thin guys who like mountains. The natural choices seem to be Nibali of Astana and Valverde of Movistar.

Valverde has had a good few months and has got the nod ahead of Quintana as leader for this Tour, with Quintana getting the Giro. Quintana is an excellent climber and Movistar generally seems to have a wealth of South American climbing stagenickers. Valverde is going to get plenty of support, just as Sir Wiggo had Froome.

The red shouty man, bet each day of the year and Mr Parr go 16/1 with three places each way for 1/4 odds, so that's 4/1 to finish third, if we assume above is a straight fight for the maillot jaune. I'm wondering whether part of this price is as a result of how much love there is for the top two, thereby forcing the bookies to push the others out. If so, we should snaffle.

I also quite fancy a Tour sweat.

Recommend £20 each way on Alejandro Valverde to win the Tour de France with one of the three companies above.

Obviously, Fred, wait to see what the two wheeler Elders say before taking any affirmative action.

There aren't many who've got serious claims for the third podium spot: Nibali, Valverde, Talansky, Van Garderen and Van den Broeck probably sums it up. Valverde cycles with a lot of attitude, is in great form, and I am a big fan. If there is one caveat, it is that he has always been unlucky in the TdF, whether due to mechanical issues, accidents, ill health or form. For someone who always seems to be mentioned as a favourite, he has yet to make the podium in the biggest race of them all. However, I do think 16/1 e/w is a decent price, but obviously I'd prefer the straight podium finish at 4/1 (if it becomes available ... still waiting to see).

[Tonji]

As Cycling Threadites will have noticed, I've tried to squeeze another sport into my tellybox in the last year or so. I've also decided to propose a bet on the Tour de Yorkshire France. Ice cream stuff follows...

I've no interest personally in sweating an even money shot for several weeks. so let's look beyond Froome. Contador is second, who comes with his own baggage but is an obvious challenger. He has just lost a big member of his support team, but a fair second favourite.

We then look at who else could challenge. It seems to me best to look at the teams, because there's only so many surprises at the very top of General Classification. This is a demanding course with lots of summit finishes and will really test the supporting climbers. There's also a stage with cobbles, which will test the thin guys who like mountains. The natural choices seem to be Nibali of Astana and Valverde of Movistar.

Valverde has had a good few months and has got the nod ahead of Quintana as leader for this Tour, with Quintana getting the Giro. Quintana is an excellent climber and Movistar generally seems to have a wealth of South American climbing stagenickers. Valverde is going to get plenty of support, just as Sir Wiggo had Froome.

The red shouty man, bet each day of the year and Mr Parr go 16/1 with three places each way for 1/4 odds, so that's 4/1 to finish third, if we assume above is a straight fight for the maillot jaune. I'm wondering whether part of this price is as a result of how much love there is for the top two, thereby forcing the bookies to push the others out. If so, we should snaffle.

I also quite fancy a Tour sweat.

Recommend £20 each way on Alejandro Valverde to win the Tour de France with one of the three companies above.

Obviously, Fred, wait to see what the two wheeler Elders say before taking any affirmative action.

I've already an interest @ 18/1. Agree pretty much with Tal.

My thoughts were:

Positives: Likely to cope better on the stage 5 cobbles. Opportunities in the Vosges mountains, where one day racing tactics could upset. Final week in the Pyrenees, steeper climbs suit his climbing style.

Negatives: Alps, doesn't generally far well on long climbs. Time Trial has been a weakness, although this years should be better suited. Five TDF starts & a best place of 6th.

Two short price favourites in a three week race, packed with potential minefields. Valverde has experience & form to cause an upset if the opportunity arises. If not it looks at least a two way battle with Nibali for third spot on the podium. I'd price that 3rd spot with Valverde just a shade behind Nibali.

 

[Tal]

Thanks, chaps.

Does he have a realistic chance of winning or is it solely reliant on injury/mechanical issues/medical results for the big two? He's a good allrounder, isn't he? Quintana must be one of the best "number twos" in the field, too.

If 3/1 for top three were available, would that be a better bet than 16/1 each way?

[TightEnd]

realistically, with a week to go, are we likely to see 4/1 the podium finish mr wetsuit?

[TightEnd]

Taking RVP off at 1-0 down?

Brilliant and brave (when it works) by LVG

thought that was the first game the European team was really disadvantaged by the heat, and they pulled through. bullish for the dutch, you have to say

[Tal]

Taking RVP off at 1-0 down?

Brilliant and brave (when it works) by LVG

thought that was the first game the European team was really disadvantaged by the heat, and they pulled through. bullish for the dutch, you have to say

Two goals at the death to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

They'll never accept that at Old Trafford