Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

before i do so, any preferences from that long list above please pipe up

I am a bit of a fanboy - and its against threads view of giving our info; however I think Steve Palmer is the nuts and his write up today on Matsuyama was compelling, (in the post) - so if Doobs is saying that has 1 20% +EV edge those two combined factors make it good enough for me - even with the lay off

I think this is probably what bobby1 and Neil were referring to yesterday.  I backed him earlier in the week at 66/1, and he has now been tipped up by a popular tipster, so he may now be giving a "false positive".   I like him as a golfer and have backed him before too, but would definitely likely to know where he had been for 5 weeks.  

I can now look forward to the inevitable winners interview where he informs is he has been staying in Liverpool for the last 5 weeks getting to know the course.  

[bobby1]

Just my thoughts re the draw as we prob wont have the luxury of waiting until 2morrow morning and then acting on any change. That is the latest 2 day forecast.

http://www.worldweatheronline.com/golf/Royal-Liverpool-Golf-Club-weather/GB.aspx?day=1

Thursday has a strangely even look to it other than a spike in the wind very late on so looks to be the same for everyone. In general on days like that the early starters would still have a small advantage as the wear and tear of the course thru the day leads to spike marked greens and drier greens in general.

The difference on Friday from the forecast earlier in the week was that the rain forecast to hit at 3pm is now much lighter than forecast before and there was also rain forecast for the 3 hour period before 3 and after 6 too. So the forecast has got much better on Friday afternoon. What might be the key tho is the wind speeds on Friday morning, and especially the gust numbers as at the mo it will be windier with stronger gust in the morning. The wind towards tea time then drops and so do the expected gusts so wind wise the forecast looks to favour the earlies on Thursday but only thru playing on a more pristine course and they will be going out later on Friday afternoon which could start in light rain but then move into the best part of the day.

The one thing about the rain at 3pm on Friday is that it might well help as after a first day of warm weather and a Friday morning of strong winds the rain could soften the greens and make it easier to hold/control shots to the green. If it is heavier than forecast then it might be a problem so we probably have to keep that in mind too but on balance as it stands now it would look to favour the guys on course later on Friday.

Obv we are judging weather forecasts in England in the middle of summer so there is still time for that to change but unless we want to wait until 5-6am 2morrow to get the latest forecast before they start playing then we have to make a call sometime.

btw how fucking anal am I?

[bobby1]

before i do so, any preferences from that long list above please pipe up

I am a bit of a fanboy - and its against threads view of giving our info; however I think Steve Palmer is the nuts and his write up today on Matsuyama was compelling, (in the post) - so if Doobs is saying that has 1 20% +EV edge those two combined factors make it good enough for me - even with the lay off

I think this is probably what bobby1 and Neil were referring to yesterday.  I backed him earlier in the week at 66/1, and he has now been tipped up by a popular tipster, so he may now be giving a "false positive".   I like him as a golfer and have backed him before too, but would definitely likely to know where he had been for 5 weeks.  

I can now look forward to the inevitable winners interview where he informs is he has been staying in Liverpool for the last 5 weeks getting to know the course.  

I haven't seen any mention of an injury problem Doobs so might just have been some rest time.

[Tal]

I was watching a tv channel last night on sky. One of the high number ones (don't tell mum). There were a group of men on a sofa (really don't tell mum) - think one of them was the hair stylist to the stars, Adee Phelan*

Anyway, these chaps were asked a question by a writer-in-ner, who asked about a bet on Shane Lowry for top GB&I club-wielder. The panel liked it - even Adee, who everyone seemed to agree was the most knowledgeable golfist - so I reckon we should go with that.

Was 28/1 with beteverydayoftheyear when last I looked. £10?






*

[arbboy]

Just my thoughts re the draw as we prob wont have the luxury of waiting until 2morrow morning and then acting on any change. That is the latest 2 day forecast.

http://www.worldweatheronline.com/golf/Royal-Liverpool-Golf-Club-weather/GB.aspx?day=1

Thursday has a strangely even look to it other than a spike in the wind very late on so looks to be the same for everyone. In general on days like that the early starters would still have a small advantage as the wear and tear of the course thru the day leads to spike marked greens and drier greens in general.

The difference on Friday from the forecast earlier in the week was that the rain forecast to hit at 3pm is now much lighter than forecast before and there was also rain forecast for the 3 hour period before 3 and after 6 too. So the forecast has got much better on Friday afternoon. What might be the key tho is the wind speeds on Friday morning, and especially the gust numbers as at the mo it will be windier with stronger gust in the morning. The wind towards tea time then drops and so do the expected gusts so wind wise the forecast looks to favour the earlies on Thursday but only thru playing on a more pristine course and they will be going out later on Friday afternoon which could start in light rain but then move into the best part of the day.

The one thing about the rain at 3pm on Friday is that it might well help as after a first day of warm weather and a Friday morning of strong winds the rain could soften the greens and make it easier to hold/control shots to the green. If it is heavier than forecast then it might be a problem so we probably have to keep that in mind too but on balance as it stands now it would look to favour the guys on course later on Friday.

Obv we are judging weather forecasts in England in the middle of summer so there is still time for that to change but unless we want to wait until 5-6am 2morrow to get the latest forecast before they start playing then we have to make a call sometime.

btw how fucking anal am I?

Very!  Isn't it supposed to be 35 degrees everywhere on Friday and a heatwave?  What weather are we actually looking at?  How hot it is?  Wind? Rain?

[Ironside]

looking at that weather forecast i am not liking my bet on willet anymore atleast i got on him at the 151 with the ew bet
and his exchange price is now 150

[bobby1]

Just my thoughts re the draw as we prob wont have the luxury of waiting until 2morrow morning and then acting on any change. That is the latest 2 day forecast.

http://www.worldweatheronline.com/golf/Royal-Liverpool-Golf-Club-weather/GB.aspx?day=1

Thursday has a strangely even look to it other than a spike in the wind very late on so looks to be the same for everyone. In general on days like that the early starters would still have a small advantage as the wear and tear of the course thru the day leads to spike marked greens and drier greens in general.

The difference on Friday from the forecast earlier in the week was that the rain forecast to hit at 3pm is now much lighter than forecast before and there was also rain forecast for the 3 hour period before 3 and after 6 too. So the forecast has got much better on Friday afternoon. What might be the key tho is the wind speeds on Friday morning, and especially the gust numbers as at the mo it will be windier with stronger gust in the morning. The wind towards tea time then drops and so do the expected gusts so wind wise the forecast looks to favour the earlies on Thursday but only thru playing on a more pristine course and they will be going out later on Friday afternoon which could start in light rain but then move into the best part of the day.

The one thing about the rain at 3pm on Friday is that it might well help as after a first day of warm weather and a Friday morning of strong winds the rain could soften the greens and make it easier to hold/control shots to the green. If it is heavier than forecast then it might be a problem so we probably have to keep that in mind too but on balance as it stands now it would look to favour the guys on course later on Friday.

Obv we are judging weather forecasts in England in the middle of summer so there is still time for that to change but unless we want to wait until 5-6am 2morrow to get the latest forecast before they start playing then we have to make a call sometime.

btw how fucking anal am I?

Very!  Isn't it supposed to be 35 degrees everywhere on Friday and a heatwave?  What weather are we actually looking at?  How hot it is?  Wind? Rain?

I swear blind mate that forecast has changed between me cutting and pasting it in there and looking at it again now. Stronger winds in the morning on Friday and then a sprinkling of rain around lunchtime and then the wind goes down in the afternoon so as it stands the earlier/ late still looks best. The course should dry out if the rain doesn't come but teatime Friday just looks better than late morning Friday

http://www.worldweatheronline.com/golf/Royal-Liverpool-Golf-Club-weather/GB.aspx?day=1

[bobby1]

obv the draw is only a 2 round angle and players can still play well from the other side so it would be wrong to just load up on one side. If you have a list of players tho it might be better to stake slightly to the side you think will be favoured, it certainly isn't a red line thru all the early starters tho.

[TightEnd]

ok, i want to get offline for the evening so this is for The Open

For the outright bets i have filtered so that all the selections are Thurs morning/Friday afternoon tee-offs, which is bobby1's advice above


Team Maths Dullard

Betfred

 Bet placed, its reference is 383/416,417

Bet ref: 383/416 £10.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Outright - The Open Championship
8 Places The Open - Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8    Johnson, Dustin    40/1    
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 520.00
Bet ref: 383/417 £10.00 Single

Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Outright - The Open Championship
8 Places The Open - Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8    Walker, Jimmy    80/1    
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 1,020.00
Full stake   £ 40.00
Full estimated return   £ 1,540.00

bfsb

The Open Championship 2014


    66/1
    £845.00
    Angel Cabrera
    .The Open Winner - 8 Places
    £ 10 EW

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000064
    70/1
    £895.00
    Thomas Bjorn
    .The Open Winner - 8 Places
    £10 EW

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000065


Team Betting Emporium

Betfred

Bet placed, its reference is 384/418

Bet ref: 384/418 £20.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Top 10 Finish - The Open Championship
Top 10 Finish
   Kuchar, Matt    7/2    
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 90.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 90.00

Coral

Shane Lowry13/2Top Irish Player - 17/07/2014
Stake £15.00
Estimated Return:£112.50
Total Stake: £15.00
Potential Return: £112.5

william Hill

17 Jul 2014 - The 143rd Open Championship - Tournament Winner - Tournament Winner

Jim Furyk @ 60/1  EW @ 1/4 1-7

Stake : £20.00 (£10.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
770.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001028/F

BFSB

The Open Championship 2014

    40/1
    £520.00
    Rickie Fowler
    .The Open Winner - 8 Places
    £10 EW

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000063

Ladbrokes

Ernie Els
Phil Mickelson / Ernie Els / Bubba Watson
Singles - 3 Ball Betting
1 line @ £20.00 per line@11/4
Total Stake £20.00
Potential Return £75.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000638



Team Hector

Betfred
Bet placed, its reference is 382/415

Bet ref: 382/415 £20.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Cut Betting - The Open Championship
Luke Donald
   To Miss The Cut    12/5    
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 68.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 68.00


Team RickBFA

betfred

1st Round 3 Balls - The Open Championship
08:26 - J.Furyk / D.Clarke / T.Watson
   Furyk, Jim    10/11    
Total stake   £ 22.00
Estimated return   £ 42.00
Full stake   £ 22.00
Full estimated return   £ 42.00



Team Paulinho Brummie

Coral

Shane Lowry25/1Top GB & Ireland Player - 17/07/2014
Each Way 1/4 1,2,3,4
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£332.50
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £332.50


Team where have you been this summer?

bfsb


The Open Championship 2014

    55/1
    £707.60
    Hideki Matsuyama
    .The Open Winner - 8 Places
    £10  EW

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000066


i have left the front end of the market, Rose, Stenson etc purely to try to get some oomph into this with the value on offer

will put the full portfolio up shortly

[TightEnd]

24-SepDoobs   Bet365   Jul-2014   Golf   The Open   Jordan Speith   100/1   0.3            
11-Jul   doobs   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   mcdowell   28/1   30   £15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
11-Jul   doobs   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   kaymer   20/1   30   £15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
11-Jul   bigadz   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   ilonen   80/1   30   £15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
15-Jul   karabiner   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   Willetts   150/1   10   £5 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
16-Jul   doubleup   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open top australian   Rumford   66/1   2            
16-Jul   BigAdz   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   Jimenez   90/1   20   £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
16-Jul   thread   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   McIlroy   22/1   30   £15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
16-Jul   doobs   betfred   20-Jul   golf   the open   D Johnson   40/1   20         £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
16-Jul   doobs   betfred   20-Jul   golf   the open   J Walker   80/1   20         £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
16-Jul   doobs   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   cabrera   66/1   20   £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
16-Jul   doobs   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   bjorn   70/1   20      £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
16-Jul   betting emporium   betfred   20-Jul   golf   Top 10 Finish - The Open Championship   kuchar   7/2   20            
16-Jul   betting emporium   coral   20-Jul   golf   the open Top Irish Player   lowry   13/2   15            
16-Jul   betting emporium   william hill   20-Jul   golf   the open   furyk   60/1   20      £10 e/w 1,2,3,4,5,6,7
16-Jul   betting emporium   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   fowler   40/1   20   £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
16-Jul   betting emporium   Ladbrokes   20-Jul   golf   Phil Mickelson / Ernie Els / Bubba Watson   Els 3 ball   11/4   20            
16-Jul   hector62   betfred   20-Jul   golf   the open to miss the cut   donald   12/5   20            
16-Jul   rickbfa   betfred   20-Jul   golf   J.Furyk / D.Clarke / T.Watson   furyk 3 ball   10/11   22            
16-Jul   Tal   coral   20-Jul   golf   Top GB & Ireland Player   lowry   25/1   20   £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
16-Jul   doobs   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   matsuyama   55/1   20   £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8

which is £409.

now to bink one

[BigAdz]

obv the draw is only a 2 round angle and players can still play well from the other side so it would be wrong to just load up on one side. If you have a list of players tho it might be better to stake slightly to the side you think will be favoured, it certainly isn't a red line thru all the early starters tho.

Hey Michael Fish.

Cut the dodgy forecast crap, we want names!

[bobby1]

I better put up a bet too, there's nowt very strong in here really.

£15 ew Dustin Johnson 40/1 8 places Toto and Betunfredly, Good links form good current form, loves Pebble Beach which can be  a windy coast course. All players have a weakness and i'm not convinced he is great from 50 to 100 yards in but powerful enough to take advantage of the par 5's. Can have the odd blow up which is why he isn't as consistent as some of those higher in the list. Out late ish on Friday.

£10 ew Matt Kuchar 40/1 7 places Ppow and Willie Bills, 35/1 8 places the same two firms as above.Two nice recent Open finishes, more steady away than spectacular and been a contender in Majors before. Out late on Friday

£5 ew Stephen Gallacher 80/1 8 places BF, in good form this year as trying to make the Ryder Cup team seems to have inspired him.Not spectacular Open fom but just playing better this year. Out late on Friday

£5 ew Brandt Snedeker 66/1  8 places. Was one of the players I laid originally but I have reversed that now after a chat with a good golf judge. It's been mentioned in other places that he has switched to Butch Harmon and players that are happy with their games tend not to do that but it seems he had been having a few tester sessions with Butch before committing to a full time switch. Had a good lead in the Open after 2 rounds a couple of years ago and struggled to get home on a tough course.  He is out early on Friday and I don't know if the swing changes will gel for 72 holes he could also be rejuvenated by the change and can play links golf.

£10 ew Jason Dufner 100/1 8 places BF **got a funny Tikay story from last night around this one which I will tell unless he gives me a tenner. I came across some old article that had been rehashed from 2 years ago where Duf listed his top five courses worldwide and was surprised to see gems like Pebble Beach, Kingston Heath in Australia  and Oak Hill on there. This was written before he won his major at Oak Hull btw. He also lists Royal Liverpool in his top 5 favourite courses so given he comes to the event with some PMA around the venue  so I am going to stick him in even tho he is out early on Friday morning as a recent major winner on a course he seemingly loves at a three figure price. If he has a 4 footer for the comp, or any putt inside 5 feet you might want to watch thru your fingers coz his putting stroke on the short ones is not good to watch.

going to put summat else up but posting this coz will be in tears if I lose it.

[TightEnd]

I better put up a bet too, there's nowt very strong in here really.

£15 ew Dustin Johnson 40/1 8 places Toto and Betunfredly, Good links form good current form, loves Pebble Beach which can be  a windy coast course. All players have a weakness and i'm not convinced he is great from 50 to 100 yards in but powerful enough to take advantage of the par 5's. Can have the odd blow up which is why he isn't as consistent as some of those higher in the list. Out late ish on Friday.

£10 ew Matt Kuchar 40/1 7 places Ppow and Willie Bills, 35/1 8 places the same two firms as above.Two nice recent Open finishes, more steady away than spectacular and been a contender in Majors before. Out late on Friday

£5 ew Stephen Gallacher 80/1 8 places BF, in good form this year as trying to make the Ryder Cup team seems to have inspired him.Not spectacular Open fom but just playing better this year. Out late on Friday

£5 ew Brandt Snedeker 66/1  8 places. Was one of the players I laid originally but I have reversed that now after a chat with a good golf judge. It's been mentioned in other places that he has switched to Butch Harmon and players that are happy with their games tend not to do that but it seems he had been having a few tester sessions with Butch before committing to a full time switch. Had a good lead in the Open after 2 rounds a couple of years ago and struggled to get home on a tough course.  He is out early on Friday and I don't know if the swing changes will gel for 72 holes he could also be rejuvenated by the change and can play links golf.

£10 ew Jason Dufner 100/1 8 places BF **got a funny Tikay story from last night around this one which I will tell unless he gives me a tenner. I came across some old article that had been rehashed from 2 years ago where Duf listed his top five courses worldwide and was surprised to see gems like Pebble Beach, Kingston Heath in Australia  and Oak Hill on there. This was written before he won his major at Oak Hull btw. He also lists Royal Liverpool in his top 5 favourite courses so given he comes to the event with some PMA around the venue  so I am going to stick him in even tho he is out early on Friday morning as a recent major winner on a course he seemingly loves at a three figure price. If he has a 4 footer for the comp, or any putt inside 5 feet you might want to watch thru your fingers coz his putting stroke on the short ones is not good to watch.

going to put summat else up but posting this coz will be in tears if I lose it.

OK We Have dustin and kuchar exposure already, see above, albeit kuchar is is low variance way

all bfsb

66/1
Brandt Snedeker
.The Open Winner - 8 Places
£5 EW

Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000067
80/1
£510.00
Stephen Gallacher
.The Open Winner - 8 Places
£5 EW

Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000068
100/1
£1,270.00
Jason Dufner
.The Open Winner - 8 Places
£10 EW

Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000069

was surprised to see Dufner 100/1




i think we are full now at £450. Send more money

[bobby1]

obv the draw is only a 2 round angle and players can still play well from the other side so it would be wrong to just load up on one side. If you have a list of players tho it might be better to stake slightly to the side you think will be favoured, it certainly isn't a red line thru all the early starters tho.

Hey Michael Fish.

Cut the dodgy forecast crap, we want names!

lol

A small three ball bet which has some merit but tbh I put this up to be used somewhere else today and Tony liked it and backed it so we might as well cheer it on.

10.32 three ball Warren, Uhlein, John Singleton.

Singleton is a qualifier with a story, he used to be a pro golfer but got injured and works in a factory in Liverpool. His GF told him to work on his game again last year coz they needed the money and he got to a good standard and has qualified for the Open. A driving force was his GF became pregnant and that focused his mind, a kind of pre nappy factor I guess. In his qualifier he borrowed some wedges from his mate coz they were better than his and got in via a play off. His boss at work has given the workforce the day off so they can go and support him on course so there is a chance he has the bigger crowd following the three ball.

He played the course every day last week and tho Warren is a good links player coming off a 2nd place last week there might be some kind of mental letdown after that big performance. Uhlein is not in good form at all tho he isn't without talent so we can take 5/1 about a low level pro golfer in this three ball that knows the course well, has been practicing hard on it last week and needs the cash.

There is a nice feel good factor to this too as Uhlien's dad is the CEO of Titleist, so a guy that borrowed some clubs from his mate is playing against a guy whose family are multi thru selling golf clubs. He also played a practice round with Uhlein so will have some familiarity with him. Warren is a solid favourite here but I took a little of the 5/1 Singleton as he might just thrive on the occasion. £20 at 5/1 if we can or 9/2 if we must?

I didn't know any of that til yesterday btw when I read it in the paper.

[arbboy]

great story!