Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

I like your analysis here Tighty but it reads to me more like a reason to bet the 49ers than overs on the basis that the part of it that will likely to be badly priced is underestimating how bad the Cowboys D is likely to be rather than anything we don't really know about their offense or the Niners D......closer to the time maybe even 49ers team points over.....I am sure they are all value but just thinking out loud a bit?

sure, happy for any thoughts

The 49ers are 1/2 outright for the game and 4.5 point favourites on the road

that doesn't leave a lot of scope to bet them, imo

I agree the main "unexposed" element is the extent the problems of the Cowboys D might not be fully in prices yet, hence the look at the points.

Even the Cowboys beat writers, based at camp, who can be relied upon to put some positive gloss on the team (their output goes to fans and Cowboys columns etc) are struggling, very rare for this time of year

[Kmac84]

Couldn't put Fred off betting St Jonstone at home to Celtic tonight.  Celtic team imo is on the decline we have played pretty bad in the Euro games and also the pre-season friendlies were far from sparkling.  We seem to be struggling for goals, we are also without our man mountain in between sticks who has gone to Southampton. 

In the games I have watched thus far although we play some nice stuff with the ball we lack any cutting edge and have no real leader taking the games by the scruff of the neck.   

The downside is St Johnstone may not have many goals in them with the loss of Stevie May so although the 13/2 with betfair looks good it might be better to get with the Saints on the Asian handicap. 

Also in the German Supercup the game is being played at the Westfalenstadion and Pep has been quoted as saying Bayern only have 8/9 fit first team players.  Also gven the number of players they had on world cup duty their may be a slight hangover I don't see how Dortmund are 11/4 here with Spoils.  If that can't be taken the 27/10 with 653 is worth a small bet. 

[TightEnd]

from yesterday's two team praictice

"Cowboys-Raiders practice notes

    • The Cowboys offensive line looks pretty beastly and should among the best in the league. Tyron Smith is a mountain, Doug Free was winning one-on-one battles in drills against the Raiders. Travis Frederick continues to look like an inspired pick. It was hardly unusual to see a Raiders defensive lineman toppled to the ground when they went one-on-one, though Raiders rookie Khalil Mack was one of the rare Oakland players who shined, managing to beat Smith once and get the huge left tackle off balance. Overall, the Cowboys are going to be able to pound teams on the ground, and DeMarco Murray -- again, should he stay healthy -- looks like he is ready for a monster season. There were no shortage of explosive runs out of the joint practice.

    • Romo said that ideally, with the offensive line looking so good, he hopes the Cowboys can get tight end Jason Witten out in space more and not have to use as much to help pass protect. The Cowboys were running an abundance of screens as well, and seem to be favoring that element more.

    • The Cowboys are excited by the progress being made by Anthony Spencer, who will be vital in the pass rush, and hope he can come off the PUP list shortly. "He's much ahead of where I thought he would be," Jones said. Overall, there isn't a whole lot to like about this Dallas defense, and I'm not sure it will be an improvement over last season's awful showing without Sean Lee and DeMarcus Ware. It lacks for individual brilliance and last year, in the Tampa-2 scheme, they couldn't play well collectively as a unit, either. Could be a long year on that side of the ball.


http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/jason-la-canfora/24658802/cowboys-tony-romo-says-right-things-after-back-surgery-but-not-close-to-old-self

[tikay]

Week 1 of the NFL

The San Francisco 49ers travel to the Dallas Cowboys

The points spread is around 48-50

bwin, amongst others, go 10/11 over 48.5

The line should trend above 50

It will still be too low

Last season the Cowboys had the worst defense in the league. Embarrassingly bad

The off-season things have gone from bad to worse

- DeMarcus Ware was traded to the Broncos, partly for salary cap reasons

- the star middle linebacker Sean Lee did an ACL in non contact mini camp in June

- the second round draft pick DeMarcus Lawrence (pass rusher) is injured and will miss week 1

- the slot cornerback Scandrick is suspended for PEDs for the first four week sof the season

With departures, key injuries and little strengthening in the draft the Cowboys defense could be worse again

"
Ross Tucker @RossTuckerNFL  ·(Former NFL player now NBC Sports Network,)  

I think we have to consider possibility that Cowboys will have worst defense in NFL history "


On the other side of the ball the Cowboys should score a lot of points, and are going to need to. The OLine particular looks brilliant (three first round draft picks, very good run blockers) and there are plenty of weapons such as Dez, Witten, Williams and DeMarco Murray

The 49ers also have one of the best OL in the league, and will score a lot of points against the Cowboys with Kaepernick, Gore, Crabtree, Boldin, Vernon Davis etc.

The defense is fine, a couple of suspensions and injuries but the summation of all the above is that this is far likely to be 45-35 or 30+ points both ways than it is 24-24 or similar scores

Looking at everything around the Cowboys, over 48.5 points is a must buy ahead of the remainder of pre-season  

Recommend as above.  

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/san-francisco-49ers-at-dallas-cowboys/total-points

I think we should get on that Rich. 

[Ironside]

we are also without our man mountain in between sticks who has gone to Southampton. 

are you not a fan of Gordon? i thought he was a great keeper just a long lay off with a couple of injuries i think he could be a great signing for the celts i was wishing aberdeen had the money to pay his wages

[TightEnd]

Couldn't put Fred off betting St Jonstone at home to Celtic tonight.  Celtic team imo is on the decline we have played pretty bad in the Euro games and also the pre-season friendlies were far from sparkling.  We seem to be struggling for goals, we are also without our man mountain in between sticks who has gone to Southampton. 

In the games I have watched thus far although we play some nice stuff with the ball we lack any cutting edge and have no real leader taking the games by the scruff of the neck.   

The downside is St Johnstone may not have many goals in them with the loss of Stevie May so although the 13/2 with betfair looks good it might be better to get with the Saints on the Asian handicap. 

Also in the German Supercup the game is being played at the Westfalenstadion and Pep has been quoted as saying Bayern only have 8/9 fit first team players.  Also gven the number of players they had on world cup duty their may be a slight hangover I don't see how Dortmund are 11/4 here with Spoils.  If that can't be taken the 27/10 with 653 is worth a small bet. 

you will need to advise further please

how much and where for each bet?

boylesports and bet365 are impossible and barely possible respectively

i assume others think they are value, if there are opinions to give......?

[Doobs]

Couldn't put Fred off betting St Jonstone at home to Celtic tonight.  Celtic team imo is on the decline we have played pretty bad in the Euro games and also the pre-season friendlies were far from sparkling.  We seem to be struggling for goals, we are also without our man mountain in between sticks who has gone to Southampton. 

In the games I have watched thus far although we play some nice stuff with the ball we lack any cutting edge and have no real leader taking the games by the scruff of the neck.   

The downside is St Johnstone may not have many goals in them with the loss of Stevie May so although the 13/2 with betfair looks good it might be better to get with the Saints on the Asian handicap. 

Also in the German Supercup the game is being played at the Westfalenstadion and Pep has been quoted as saying Bayern only have 8/9 fit first team players.  Also gven the number of players they had on world cup duty their may be a slight hangover I don't see how Dortmund are 11/4 here with Spoils.  If that can't be taken the 27/10 with 653 is worth a small bet. 

you will need to advise further please

how much and where for each bet?

boylesports and bet365 are impossible and barely possible respectively

i assume others think they are value, if there are opinions to give......?

Price has been smashed off the boards. 

[Kmac84]

Couldn't put Fred off betting St Jonstone at home to Celtic tonight.  Celtic team imo is on the decline we have played pretty bad in the Euro games and also the pre-season friendlies were far from sparkling.  We seem to be struggling for goals, we are also without our man mountain in between sticks who has gone to Southampton. 

In the games I have watched thus far although we play some nice stuff with the ball we lack any cutting edge and have no real leader taking the games by the scruff of the neck.   

The downside is St Johnstone may not have many goals in them with the loss of Stevie May so although the 13/2 with betfair looks good it might be better to get with the Saints on the Asian handicap. 

Also in the German Supercup the game is being played at the Westfalenstadion and Pep has been quoted as saying Bayern only have 8/9 fit first team players.  Also gven the number of players they had on world cup duty their may be a slight hangover I don't see how Dortmund are 11/4 here with Spoils.  If that can't be taken the 27/10 with 653 is worth a small bet. 

you will need to advise further please

how much and where for each bet?

boylesports and bet365 are impossible and barely possible respectively

i assume others think they are value, if there are opinions to give......?

I'd have £10 St Johnstone 13/2 on betfair.  

St Johnstone + 0.5, 1 @ 11/8 Betfair.  For £25.

Borrussia Dortmund - £20.  

It's still too early I feel to be going crazy on the football.  

@Ironside - he was a very good goalkeeper when fully fit but I can't have him after 2 years out.  I also don't see him starting tonight.  

[Teacake]

Couldn't put Fred off betting St Jonstone at home to Celtic tonight.  Celtic team imo is on the decline we have played pretty bad in the Euro games and also the pre-season friendlies were far from sparkling.  We seem to be struggling for goals, we are also without our man mountain in between sticks who has gone to Southampton. 

In the games I have watched thus far although we play some nice stuff with the ball we lack any cutting edge and have no real leader taking the games by the scruff of the neck.   

The downside is St Johnstone may not have many goals in them with the loss of Stevie May so although the 13/2 with betfair looks good it might be better to get with the Saints on the Asian handicap. 

Also in the German Supercup the game is being played at the Westfalenstadion and Pep has been quoted as saying Bayern only have 8/9 fit first team players.  Also gven the number of players they had on world cup duty their may be a slight hangover I don't see how Dortmund are 11/4 here with Spoils.  If that can't be taken the 27/10 with 653 is worth a small bet. 

you will need to advise further please

how much and where for each bet?

boylesports and bet365 are impossible and barely possible respectively

i assume others think they are value, if there are opinions to give......?

I actually came on to put St J up as well, as has been said Celtic not settled into the new managers style and he had a very poor record away from home with his previous team. Celtic have also struggled at Saints the last couple of seasons and lost Forster. May a big loss for St J.

I was going to suggest £20 or so at 6/1 at Corals. I'll be honest I didn't look at the Asian hcap which may be the way to go.

[Kmac84]

Can still get 11/5 Dortmund on Betfair.   Not quite as good wouldn't be adverse to doing that still maybe for £15.  

[TightEnd]

all betfair


Dortmund Match Odds    3.3    £15.00    
£34.45
Ref: 40060924379M Matched: 17:07 13-Aug-14

13 Aug 14
17:03    
St Johnstone v Celtic
St Johnstone - Match Odds
Back    7.40    10.00

13 Aug 14
17:06    
St Johnstone v Celtic
St Johnstone - Asian Handicap 0.5, 1
Back    2.35    19.67 (matched)

[Tal]

http://news.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/football/premier-league/price-boost-ladbrokes-enhance-spurs-top-4-odds_207347.html

 

9/2 betfair btw. I did check.

[TightEnd]

http://news.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/football/premier-league/price-boost-ladbrokes-enhance-spurs-top-4-odds_207347.html

 

9/2 betfair btw. I did check.

Hello, which of Man C, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Man U are Tottenham knocking out of the top 5 please?

[Ironside]

http://news.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/football/premier-league/price-boost-ladbrokes-enhance-spurs-top-4-odds_207347.html

 

9/2 betfair btw. I did check.

Hello, which of Man C, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Man U are Tottenham knocking out of the top 5 please?

newcastle stoke southampton and possibly everton

[Kmac84]

http://news.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/football/premier-league/price-boost-ladbrokes-enhance-spurs-top-4-odds_207347.html

 

9/2 betfair btw. I did check.

Hello, which of Man C, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Man U are Tottenham knocking out of the top 5 please?

I think Spurs will have a good season tbh, I expect much more from Saldado, someone posted an interesting fact about foreign strikers having a bit of an issue on first season in Premier League a few weeks back, I also think the manager is pretty clever.  But your question stll stands who do they knock out?  It's a tough one, I wouldn't be rushing to back it at the prices.  Despite a convincing pre season I think Man U might stll prove to be off the pace a bit.   Liverpool, could be anything they have made some good signings but are they likely to find a balance that replaces the bite of Suarez?  Chelsea to me look the best bet for the league, Jose has recuited well in the summer wonder if Costa will add to that stat of first deason foreign strikers, if he does they could struggle for goals.   I have a feeling Man Citeh despite the money might be a bitt off the pace this year.    Arsenal seem to have bought well also but I still have doubts about the mental fortiude.  I think Spurs to break top 4 the right price is probably around 6/1.  So betting this just looks like a benefit to the books and layers.