Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Dominic Walsh ‏@walshdominic  Mar 18
Ladbrokes annual report shows CEO Richard Glynn picked up total package of £4.72m inc LTIPs, up from £2.55m. And it was "challenging year"!

Just as well they never increased profits.

They make £28m per half year and have a CEO making £2.4m a half year.  I can see an obvious way to increase profits by 8%.  Nice work if you can get it.

i was just thinking the same thing

[Mark_Porter]

Guernsey are off and running winning 3-0 against Whyteleafe tonight. Whitstable Town are the next visitors to the island this Saturday.

Still some first team players missing after taking the summer off - notably Ross Allen. Will need 6 weeks to get a good feel for the squad as players get fit and up to speed.

Click to see full-size image.

[Tal]

Tighty, do you take any notice of the cowboys fighting in training or is that all just part of the drill? A bit of bravado for the fans and a statement of toughness and intent from the fringe players, or is it indicative of discontentment within the ranks?

http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/08/13/cowboys-raiders-brawl

[Teacake]

On that evidence even though we won 3 - 0 I will still be opposing Celtic. 

Agreed and we should be starting with backing Maribor to qualify in the CL qualifier at 2/1, if they have anything about them at all they'll get past us easy enough. They got to the last 32 of the Europe League last season getting out of the group stages before losing 4-3 to Sevilla in the knock out stages and have decent experience in Europe over the last few years. They are obviously no world beaters but they won't need to be.

This is obviously presuming UEFA don't put Legia back in tomorrow.

[Kmac84]

On that evidence even though we won 3 - 0 I will still be opposing Celtic. 

Agreed and we should be starting with backing Maribor to qualify in the CL qualifier at 2/1, if they have anything about them at all they'll get past us easy enough. They got to the last 32 of the Europe League last season getting out of the group stages before losing 4-3 to Sevilla in the knock out stages and have decent experience in Europe over the last few years. They are obviously no world beaters but they won't need to be.

This is obviously presuming UEFA don't put Legia back in tomorrow.

What about Dundee United on Saturday?  I'm thinking anything around 4/1 is worth a dabble.  I haven't looked yet.  Too busy getting into arguements on twitter with fellow Tims who fail to see Liewell for what he is. 

[horseplayer]

http://www.thisisswindontownfc.co.uk/news/11407462.Smith_feeling_Geordie_assured/?ref=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Struggling to see why Hills are holding the 40's here tbh

[Omm]

Celtic playing some ok football, but as I thought no cutting edge.   St Johnstone have created a few half chances but only tested Craig Gordon once.  It's going to be a long season unless our board get the cheque book out and add some quality. 

why should they?

win the league at a canter with whatever xi they put out from the current squad

only need to invest if they ever get a challenge again, and three of the teams who long term might do that are out of the league/financially stifled

huge team in a tiny league. different story if came to England

Because we face embarrassment in Europe if we don't, we don't look capable of winning the league at a canter with current XI and it looks like we're going to lose VVD.

If they don't invest now when it comes time to invest it might be too late.  This could be another Mowbray.   

Never going to be going to England.  It's a pipe dream if it was ever going to happen it would have materialised by now. 

Just out of interest do many fans want to play in the English leagues or is it media hype?

[DungBeetle]

I've been having a look at the Pinnacle under/overs for Prenier League points and one stood out for me. 

Swansea had 2 great seasons in the division when they arrived on the scene scoring 47 and 46 points respectively.  Last season they bumbled to 42 points.

To me they seem a team on the decline, and I wouldn't be surprised if they find themselves in the relegation scrap this season.  Gomis and Montero look exciting signings but they have lost Worn, Davies and Michu.  The manager also remains unproven.

We can go under 44.5 points at about evens which looks a decent bet to me.  Think this should be pretty strong favourite against the overs, as the mark offers some margin for error even if they are in mid table.

Thoughts on the Swans this season?

[horseplayer]

Not being in Europe will be a big help

Think Chico is a massive loss,was obviously a bit of a strange character but he was excellent for them on many occasions and him and Williams was a very solid reliable partnership.

Everybody knows my thoughts on Montero but i doubt he will hit the ground running and as a very direct player not sure the slowly slowly build up will suit him.

If pushed i would go under but without stating the obvious dont think it is miles out

[sonour]

couldn't believe glynn's comments either.  I actually really feel like emailling him personally and asking him why my local 3 ladbrokes' shops just point blank refuse to even refer a bet from me to never mind actually accept one.  The local manager told me 'I have the power to just refuse your bets without even referring them to so please never come back into any of my 3 shops in my area and try and place a bet as they will be refused'.  The firm is a total joke.  Their head of loltrading could be sitting at desperate to lay something and i am desperate to back it but the £15k a year lolshopmanager thinks he has the power to judge whether ladbrokes will take a bet and not the guy in the firm who's job it actually is.   He openly admitted to me that he hadn't contacted the trading team at Harrow to make the decision and had just made it himself.  I told him i would still get on at Ladbrokes but it would cost the company more as i would have to bet more to pay for people to get me on effectively and his reply was 'i couldn't care less if you still get on as long as you don't get on in the 3 shops i am responsible for'.  Would have been nice to have a hidden camera and record the convo and send it to Glynn then he might start to understand why his firm is so badly run from top to bottom.

There seem to be so many operational issues at ladbrokes that need sorting out from top to bottom.  All that seems to keep getting the blame is the app/playtech.  The major reason why they do their nuts is their trading team is awful at pricing stuff up.  I think firms in the last 5 years have moved so far away from the basics of bookmaking and moved into betting to 100% books/promo's/freebets/cashbacks/moneyback offers they have forgot that the core part of their business (and any business) is getting the price of your product right.  In the bookmaking world getting the price of your product right involves a lot more skill than most businesses because you don't 'buy' a good for £x and add a 40% mark up and sell it.

My friend works for a Bulgarian bookmaker who take a different view.

He emailed me last week to say bet over 2.5 goals at 1.7, it was a World Club friendly. It was about 30 minutes to kick off.

Whilst I was trying to get as much on as possible another email  came through saying, He was 99% sure it would go over 2.5 as their shadiest customer, we call him Mr A, had bet £1000 at 1.28.

Mr A has had over 100 bets with them and never lost a bet ! He only bets on fixed games.

I asked my friend why they continue to let him bet. He said no trader would stop him as they made ten times their salary copying his bets with other bookmakers. But that also the directors were aware of this customer and that there were systems in place for the company to take advantage of Mr A's bets too.

[typhoon13]

couldn't believe glynn's comments either.  I actually really feel like emailling him personally and asking him why my local 3 ladbrokes' shops just point blank refuse to even refer a bet from me to never mind actually accept one.  The local manager told me 'I have the power to just refuse your bets without even referring them to so please never come back into any of my 3 shops in my area and try and place a bet as they will be refused'.  The firm is a total joke.  Their head of loltrading could be sitting at desperate to lay something and i am desperate to back it but the £15k a year lolshopmanager thinks he has the power to judge whether ladbrokes will take a bet and not the guy in the firm who's job it actually is.   He openly admitted to me that he hadn't contacted the trading team at Harrow to make the decision and had just made it himself.  I told him i would still get on at Ladbrokes but it would cost the company more as i would have to bet more to pay for people to get me on effectively and his reply was 'i couldn't care less if you still get on as long as you don't get on in the 3 shops i am responsible for'.  Would have been nice to have a hidden camera and record the convo and send it to Glynn then he might start to understand why his firm is so badly run from top to bottom.

There seem to be so many operational issues at ladbrokes that need sorting out from top to bottom.  All that seems to keep getting the blame is the app/playtech.  The major reason why they do their nuts is their trading team is awful at pricing stuff up.  I think firms in the last 5 years have moved so far away from the basics of bookmaking and moved into betting to 100% books/promo's/freebets/cashbacks/moneyback offers they have forgot that the core part of their business (and any business) is getting the price of your product right.  In the bookmaking world getting the price of your product right involves a lot more skill than most businesses because you don't 'buy' a good for £x and add a 40% mark up and sell it.

My friend works for a Bulgarian bookmaker who take a different view.

He emailed me last week to say bet over 2.5 goals at 1.7, it was a World Club friendly. It was about 30 minutes to kick off.

Whilst I was trying to get as much on as possible another email  came through saying, He was 99% sure it would go over 2.5 as their shadiest customer, we call him Mr A, had bet £1000 at 1.28.

Mr A has had over 100 bets with them and never lost a bet ! He only bets on fixed games.

I asked my friend why they continue to let him bet. He said no trader would stop him as they made ten times their salary copying his bets with other bookmakers. But that also the directors were aware of this customer and that there were systems in place for the company to take advantage of Mr A's bets too.

Absolutely spot on

I have a Commodities client who sells to me and when he enters the market i follow

The old adage "its not what you know its who you know"

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £304.63

Outstanding Bets £3827.82

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=28

A loss of £42 yesterday

£32 profit from Borussia Dortmund's German super cup victory over Bayern



losers

£39 on St Johnstone who lost 3-0 at home to Cantering Celtic



£20 Hewitt, lost 1 and 4 to Fognini

£15 as no century in the game as the Jamaica Tallawahs defeated Trinidad and Tobago Red Steel by four wickets in the first semi-final game of the Caribbean Premier League. top scores 70 and 62*

ongoing positions

Both of our RLC teams played yesterday and Kent beat Sssex to qualifiy for a home quarter final. Sussex have a fight to qualify, top 4 through each play 8 fames

1    Kent    7    4    0    1    2    0.467    11.0
2    Warwickshire    6    3    2    0    1    0.414    7.0
3    Durham    7    3    3    0    1    0.201    7.0
4    Somerset    7    3    3    1    0    0.098    7.0
5    Nottinghamshire    6    2    1    1    2    0.079    7.0
6    Glamorgan    6    3    3    0    0    0.264    6.0
7    Sussex    7    3    4    0    0    -0.555    6.0
8    Middlesex    6    2    3    0    1    -0.151    5.0
9    Surrey    6    0    4    1    1    -0.846    2.0

Guernsey beat Whyteleafe 3-0 at home to get off the mark in the Ryman One South

Click to see full-size image.

Baseball, the Orioles beat the Yankees 5-3 in the double whammy, we want the Orioles and want the Yankees to lose. The Royals beat the A's 3-0, Jason Vargas pitched a complete game shut-out

Click to see full-size image.

With 43 games of the season to go, the Orioles are clear. For now

Baltimore   69   50   .580   -   
Toronto   63   59   .516   7.5   
NY Yankees   61   58 .513 8.0

Click to see full-size image.

the central is a huge fight..

Kansas City   65   54   .546   -   
Detroit   64   54   .542   0.5   
Cleveland   60   60   .500   5.5

[tikay]

@Tighty - this is a pretty good blog that shows the mountain evidence against our PLC board and Chief Executive, they are putting £'s before trophes/footballing excellence. 

http://www.onfieldsofgreen.com/a-pale-horse/

Having read some of the posts you and tikay have made on here previously its clear that you both value a good business model, I too value that but I don't want that to the detriment of the team.  Celtic used to treat us like supporters but over recent years we are sadly just customers. 

Well obviously, yes. Without a good business model, we don't have a business, as many a Football Club has learned the hard way. 

If I were on the Board of Celtic Football Club I'd not spend a penny on transfers.

Invest that money in a Youth Academy? Yes please.

I'm not going to debate it, life's too short, but that's just my view.

[horseplayer]

Quiet sports news day?

William Hill ‏@sharpeangle  3m
Pulis gamble from 40/1 to 7/2 to be next Prem boss to go emanating from South Coast-based punters. #CPFC

Pulis has not had a penny matched on betfair...

[TightEnd]

http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/51

Ante Post: Player and Team Specials

they might all lose but it was great fun reasearching these, and trying to marry up thoughts with prices

like the previous article i won't back them all, just the ones i like the most



05 Sep 2014 - NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year - Offensive Rookie Of The Year

Kelvin Benjamin @ 20/1

Stake : £10.00
Estimated Returns : £
210.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001075/F
Single

05 Sep 2014 - NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year - Offensive Rookie Of The Year

Brandin Cooks @ 10/1

Stake : £15.00
Estimated Returns : £
165.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001076/F

05 Sep 2014 - NFL Defensive Rookie Of The Year - Defensive Rookie Of The Year

Aaron Donald @ 14/1

Stake : £15.00
Estimated Returns : £
225.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001077/F

05 Sep 2014 - Most Regular Season Rushing Yards - Most Rushing Yards

Jamaal Charles @ 12/1  EW @ 1/4 1-4

Stake : £30.00 (£15.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
255.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001078/F


Event
Who will get the most Regular Season Passing Yards? NFL

Market
Most Regular Season Passing Yds

 
 
Selection
4/1 - LeSean McCoy

Event
Who will get the most Regular Season Rushing Yards? NFL

Market
Most Regular Season Rushing Yds

 
Your bets (2)
 
Single - Matt Ryan - Each Way

Each Way 1/4 1,2,3
2 lines at £10.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £195.00
Time: 14/08/14 12:09
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000667
 
 
Single - LeSean McCoy

1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £100.00
Time: 14/08/14 12:09
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000668

Regular Season Player Specials
Most Regular Season Receiving Yards
EW 1/4 1,2,3    Jones, Julio    10/1    
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 145.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 145.00