Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

After a meal out with Dubai last night and dropping him at the station I was behind this car.

Camel official founder of this thread will not be happy with Argueboy!!

Click to see full-size image.

Many years ago when i started arbing someone sent me a link to a number plate website with the following two plates for sale.

ARB 3R £14500
ARB 80Y £9500

Quite incredible what people pay for these things.  My car is worth 2% of the price of these plates so it was 1000/1 that was my car!  The guy in the picture must be a junior currency trader in the city with the budget version of the plate before he gets to large it with the big hitters.  Too many additional letters in that plate to make it look the real deal.

[Tal]

Or it's this chap:

Click to see full-size image.

(Arry's Boy)

[Tonji]

Speed races start this week for the Men in Canada, with Downhill & Super G.

http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-sports/alpine-skiing/mens-alpine:-lake-louise-downhill/winner

Without Svindal (out injured) & many racers just returning from injury it's a hugely open race. Training runs will give some clues over the next few days.



Excited   

Timed training yesterday:

Hill set different from previous years, higher start, adding about 4 seconds, top speed still up to 125 km/hr. Looks to suit gilders who can hold aero position with a fast line.

Jansrud got it first time, Mayer had speed but needs to refine the line. Noticeable that Head skis look to have a better set up than other manufacturers.

Today's run likely to be cancelled, but another run tomorrow will see other guys close the gap before race day on Saturday.

[hector62]

Hi Tighty.

I am largely in agreement of your betpal article supporting Australia to beat England in the rugby. However, like v South Africa, I do think there is more value backing Australia to win by 1-12 points. Coral put their price up for this and it is 5/2, a bit higher than the other 3 people to have priced it.

I will leave it up to you which we go for.

[Eddycadub]

Unsure if you want to tie up more money for 6 months with another NBA division winner bet, but I think Golden State 6/5 to win the Pacific is good value on WH. They currently have a 3 game lead and stats on basketball-reference show they've been the best team so far this season taking into account strength of schedule and points differential:



While the only other team that can realistically win the division (LA Clippers) have had a sluggish start despite what may be a slightly misleading 9 - 5 record. It seems like Griffin is carrying some sort of ailment as he doesn't quite look as explosive as last season, and some are saying CP3 has lost a step as he's approaching 30 years old. A lot of that is subjective, so happy to hear thoughts on it.
Edit: Just seen its 5/4 on betvictor.

[TightEnd]

Unsure if you want to tie up more money for 6 months with another NBA division winner bet, but I think Golden State 6/5 to win the Pacific is good value on WH. They currently have a 3 game lead and stats on basketball-reference show they've been the best team so far this season taking into account strength of schedule and points differential:



While the only other team that can realistically win the division (LA Clippers) have had a sluggish start despite what may be a slightly misleading 9 - 5 record. It seems like Griffin is carrying some sort of ailment as he doesn't quite look as explosive as last season, and some are saying CP3 has lost a step as he's approaching 30 years old. A lot of that is subjective, so happy to hear thoughts on it.
Edit: Just seen its 5/4 on betvictor.

can you explain the terminology please?

PW?

PL?

MOV?

SRS?

SOS will be strength of schedule

we have an e/w bet on the Clippers at 12-1 to factor in, by the way, for the Championship

[TightEnd]

Darts

Players Championship Finals start tomorrow (and its only 20 days until the wiorld championships i think)

any thoughts on outrights/sub-markets etc?

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/players-championships

http://www1.skysports.com/darts/news/12040/9578160/players-championship-finals-draw

Those seedings throw up some fascinating sections - can't quite believe Lewis is favourite to win his section considering current form.

Ian White won a floor tournament at the weekend and must be some value to win Quarter 3 at 8/1 (considering Lewis and Chizzy play each other in the first round).  White does not have the best TV pedigree but the price is generous.

In the same vain Kim Huybrechts at 8/1 with Barney and Van Gerwen playing each other first round - Van Gerwen is starting to shown signs of life after a quiet back end of the year, but of course Kim beat him in spectacular fashion 2 weeks ago.

Personally I will be happy to oppose Taylor as the format is Semi and Final in one night after player your quarter final in the afternoon - although think his game is much better then a year ago he has shown signs of tiredness in long games.  Wades draw is probably the kindest of the other contenders so would take the 12's if available.

For your considerations I would suggest

£10 Kim Huybrechts at 7/1 to win Quarter 3 @ 7/1 Bet Victor

£10 Ian White to win Quarter 4 @ 8/1 with Bet Victor

£10 James Wade to Win @ 12/1 with Sporting Bet or Boyles

what is a floor tournament and how is it different from this event?

will do these tomorrow, maybe some other suggestions beforehand to go alongside them and do a portfolio

[TightEnd]

Hi Tighty.

I am largely in agreement of your betpal article supporting Australia to beat England in the rugby. However, like v South Africa, I do think there is more value backing Australia to win by 1-12 points. Coral put their price up for this and it is 5/2, a bit higher than the other 3 people to have priced it.

I will leave it up to you which we go for.

we'll do yours

Australia have attracted a bit of support today

Australia 1-1212/5England v Australia - 29/11/2014
Stake £15.00
Estimated Return:£51.00
Total Stake: £15.00
Potential Return: £51.00

joke o'ral 

[Eddycadub]

Unsure if you want to tie up more money for 6 months with another NBA division winner bet, but I think Golden State 6/5 to win the Pacific is good value on WH. They currently have a 3 game lead and stats on basketball-reference show they've been the best team so far this season taking into account strength of schedule and points differential:



While the only other team that can realistically win the division (LA Clippers) have had a sluggish start despite what may be a slightly misleading 9 - 5 record. It seems like Griffin is carrying some sort of ailment as he doesn't quite look as explosive as last season, and some are saying CP3 has lost a step as he's approaching 30 years old. A lot of that is subjective, so happy to hear thoughts on it.
Edit: Just seen its 5/4 on betvictor.

can you explain the terminology please?

PW?

PL?

MOV?

SRS?

SOS will be strength of schedule

we have an e/w bet on the Clippers at 12-1 to factor in, by the way, for the Championship

Sure, the main one I wanted to show here was SRS which is the simple rating system which accounts for the points differential and strength of schedule to date, which is a good indicator of who is playing best so far. MOV is margin of victory, PW and PL are expected wins and losses based on pts scored and allowed (pythagorean wins and losses is the technical name).

With regard to the Clippers title bet, I don't think this would clash too much as the Clippers will be making the playoffs even if they don't win the division, barring some kind of injury problems, but there is certainly some clash as at the moment you'd want the Clippers to have as high a seeding as they can get of course.

Edit: and to explain the strength of schedule stat, 0 is average with lower being easier and higher being tougher. So taking Toronto as an example which Fred has a very good looking divisional bet on. They've had a bunch of home games to start the season and not too many tough teams, so their strength of schedule is rated at -1.8.

[arbboy]

Unsure if you want to tie up more money for 6 months with another NBA division winner bet, but I think Golden State 6/5 to win the Pacific is good value on WH. They currently have a 3 game lead and stats on basketball-reference show they've been the best team so far this season taking into account strength of schedule and points differential:



While the only other team that can realistically win the division (LA Clippers) have had a sluggish start despite what may be a slightly misleading 9 - 5 record. It seems like Griffin is carrying some sort of ailment as he doesn't quite look as explosive as last season, and some are saying CP3 has lost a step as he's approaching 30 years old. A lot of that is subjective, so happy to hear thoughts on it.
Edit: Just seen its 5/4 on betvictor.

can you explain the terminology please?

PW?

PL?

MOV?

SRS?

SOS will be strength of schedule

we have an e/w bet on the Clippers at 12-1 to factor in, by the way, for the Championship

Sure, the main one I wanted to show here was SRS which is the simple rating system which accounts for the points differential and strength of schedule to date, which is a good indicator of who is playing best so far. MOV is margin of victory, PW and PL are expected wins and losses based on pts scored and allowed (pythagorean wins and losses is the technical name).

With regard to the Clippers title bet, I don't think this would clash too much as the Clippers will be making the playoffs even if they don't win the division, barring some kind of injury problems, but there is certainly some clash as at the moment you'd want the Clippers to have as high a seeding as they can get of course.

I have been thinking about the same bet for a while tbh.  I have got a rather large double on raps and clips to win their divisions.  You have summed it  up perfectly how poorly Griffin is playing.  He should be improving towards MVP level at his age/experience yet seems to be going the other way.  Not so concerned about Paul tbh.  He is having a very solid season but needs his quality big's (Jordan/Griffin) to start playing like they did last season.  When the bigs are scoring easily it gives Paul so much more space to operate in and get easy scores himself.  

On the flip side with GS you have to remember they are a huge 3 point shooting team.  The oldest saying in the book is 'live by the 3, die by the 3'.  They are hot at the minute with a rookie coach in Steve Kerr who has won 5 rings as a role playier in his career playing under the two greatest coaches in the modern day NBA.  He has been a great TV analyst prior to taking this coaching role as well.  Kerr is going to be a great coach but i feel they might be over performing on a honeymoon type period.  I think the prices are currently right for the division tbf and don't think you have much of an edge.

The team we should be taking out of those stats appears to be Sac Kings.  I haven't looked at them much this year but they are playing well given how tough their schedule has been.

[Eddycadub]

I have been thinking about the same bet for a while tbh.  I have got a rather large double on raps and clips to win their divisions.  You have summed it  up perfectly how poorly Griffin is playing.  He should be improving towards MVP level at his age/experience yet seems to be going the other way.  Not so concerned about Paul tbh.  He is having a very solid season but needs his quality big's (Jordan/Griffin) to start playing like they did last season.  When the bigs are scoring easily it gives Paul so much more space to operate in and get easy scores himself.  

On the flip side with GS you have to remember they are a huge 3 point shooting team.  The oldest saying in the book is 'live by the 3, die by the 3'.  They are hot at the minute with a rookie coach in Steve Kerr who has won 5 rings as a role playing in his career.  Kerr is going to be a great coach but i feel they might be over performing on a honeymoon type period.  I think the prices are currently right for the division tbf and don't think you have much of an edge.

The team we should be taking out of those stats appears to be Sac Kings.  I haven't looked at them much this year but they are playing well given how tough their schedule has been.

Fair points, GSW have been getting a lot from guys like Green and Speights too which might not be sustainable, but I do think they and the Blazers are the only teams that can just launch 3's all game long and I'd be fine with it lol

Problem I have with Sacramento is they are pretty much a one man team. Cousins has been ridiculously efficient this season and nobody can defend him in the post, he even got the better of Davis in their matchups I would say. Not much we can really do with these stats in terms of bets though unfortunately.

[Nakor]

Re Darts - Floor Tournament

Multiple boards one room, boards reduce through the rounds - As apposed to a traditional stage tournament 1 board, as seen on TV.

[arbboy]

I have been thinking about the same bet for a while tbh.  I have got a rather large double on raps and clips to win their divisions.  You have summed it  up perfectly how poorly Griffin is playing.  He should be improving towards MVP level at his age/experience yet seems to be going the other way.  Not so concerned about Paul tbh.  He is having a very solid season but needs his quality big's (Jordan/Griffin) to start playing like they did last season.  When the bigs are scoring easily it gives Paul so much more space to operate in and get easy scores himself.  

On the flip side with GS you have to remember they are a huge 3 point shooting team.  The oldest saying in the book is 'live by the 3, die by the 3'.  They are hot at the minute with a rookie coach in Steve Kerr who has won 5 rings as a role playing in his career.  Kerr is going to be a great coach but i feel they might be over performing on a honeymoon type period.  I think the prices are currently right for the division tbf and don't think you have much of an edge.

The team we should be taking out of those stats appears to be Sac Kings.  I haven't looked at them much this year but they are playing well given how tough their schedule has been.

Fair points, GSW have been getting a lot from guys like Green and Speights too which might not be sustainable, but I do think they and the Blazers are the only teams that can just launch 3's all game long and I'd be fine with it lol

Problem I have with Sacramento is they are pretty much a one man team. Cousins has been ridiculously efficient this season and nobody can defend him in the post, he even got the better of Davis in their matchups I would say. Not much we can really do with these stats in terms of bets though unfortunately.

The other problem with Sac is that their own player Cousins is liable to mentally blow up at any time.  He isn't the most stable guy but incredibly talented.  I think his role on the USA team during the summer has really helped him mature.

[Tal]

Interesting that Laddies have set a significantly lower line for Matt Forte's rushing yards. BMU, PP and Channing's Embassy all in the low seventies, where shouty red man goes 60.5. Given how quickly Chicago abandoned the run against Green Bay when they fell behind, I wonder whether they might have got this right.

One quarter in and Forte's current - running - total of rushing yards is -1. Cutler is passing instead, seemingly.

The bad news for the bet is Chicago have gone two scores ahead, so are more likely to be running the ball later on if that stays the case.

[Kmac84]

Did they not get the memo that we're on unders here.  Doing their best to spoil trebles/doubles galore.