Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

thanksgiving thoughts

1

the Cowboys are 3 point favourites at home to the Eagles

Total points 54

Should be a high scoring game. Perfectly possible both teams go over 30 points

Eagles 27th in D, Cowboys 16th in D but struggle against the pass

Both teams lots of offensive weapons

Cowboys tend to be bad favourites. Typically supported by public bets, and not a great home team. this year 5-0 on the road and 3-3 at home.

No particular reason the Cowboys should be favourite here. they also have a scheduling disadvantage, playing Sunday night late, getting home 6am Monday and turning round and playing 72 hours later

Another issue is the Cowboys are down three starters on special teams due to injuries on Sunday including the punt protector and the leading teams tackler. The Eagles have 10 non offensive TDs on returns, and have a clear advantage in this area for this game

Suggestions for discussion

Eagles outright 6/4+

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/winner

Eagles +3

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/winner

Overs on Points is a bit "joe versus pro"/ice-creamy but it feels like a shootout to me

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/total-points

TD scorer is tricky, so many runners in the field. Speculatively like Jordan Matthews because the Cowboys struggle against slot receivers

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/first-touchdown-scorer


2.

Bears at Lions

In theory the Lions offense ashould be high-powered but it has cooled off a lot in the last four weeks

Since their 35-points in the season opener, the Lions haven’t scored more than 24 points in a single game. In the last two weeks, the team has totaled 15 points, failing to score a touchdown.

the defense is very stout against the run

The Bears are inconsistent, in part because Cutler can be inaccurate

the Bears defense is poor, and injury hit. The Bears rank near the bottom of the league in defense, and only the Jaguars allow more than their opponents’ scoring average of 27.5 points per game

defensive captain Lance Briggs is doubtful would be a big loss

The Lions are 7 point favourites.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/chicago-bears-at-detroit-lions/point-spread

unbackable at that i think but the Bears are an unreliable betting prospect

tempted by points unders 47.5

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/chicago-bears-at-detroit-lions/total-points

two teams know each other well, divisional rivalry, comparatively easy to scheme against each other on a short week


3

Seahawks at 49ers

might as well be a play off game

two hard nosed defensive led teams, points could be at a premium

this is reflected in points quotes around 40, by the far the lowest of the three games

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/total-points

Seahawks +1 shows how tough it is to call

the Seahawks were knocked black and blue by the Cardinals on Sunday, Wlson was sacked 8 times

this is a short turnround to this game after that and would expect them to run Lynch over 25 times this game

would expect him to go over 80+ yards rushing

in part this is because the 49ers might have the NFL’s best pass defense, ranking first in opposing passer rating (74.1), tied for first in opposing completion percentage (57.2) and second in passing yards allowed per game (207.2), and Seattle lack talent in the receivers...main offensive weapons are Lynch and Wilson running

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/total-rushing-yds-marshawn-lynch

[Stopsleyhatter]

thanksgiving thoughts

1

the Cowboys are 3 point favourites at home to the Eagles

Total points 54

Should be a high scoring game. Perfectly possible both teams go over 30 points

Eagles 27th in D, Cowboys 16th in D but struggle against the pass

Both teams lots of offensive weapons

Cowboys tend to be bad favourites. Typically supported by public bets, and not a great home team. this year 5-0 on the road and 3-3 at home.

No particular reason the Cowboys should be favourite here. they also have a scheduling disadvantage, playing Sunday night late, getting home 6am Monday and turning round and playing 72 hours later

Another issue is the Cowboys are down three starters on special teams due to injuries on Sunday including the punt protector and the leading teams tackler. The Eagles have 10 non offensive TDs on returns, and have a clear advantage in this area for this game

Suggestions for discussion

Eagles outright 6/4+

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/winner

Eagles +3

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/winner

Overs on Points is a bit "joe versus pro"/ice-creamy but it feels like a shootout to me

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/total-points

TD scorer is tricky, so many runners in the field. Speculatively like Jordan Matthews because the Cowboys struggle against slot receivers

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/first-touchdown-scorer


2.

Bears at Lions

In theory the Lions offense ashould be high-powered but it has cooled off a lot in the last four weeks

Since their 35-points in the season opener, the Lions haven’t scored more than 24 points in a single game. In the last two weeks, the team has totaled 15 points, failing to score a touchdown.

the defense is very stout against the run

The Bears are inconsistent, in part because Cutler can be inaccurate

the Bears defense is poor, and injury hit. The Bears rank near the bottom of the league in defense, and only the Jaguars allow more than their opponents’ scoring average of 27.5 points per game

defensive captain Lance Briggs is doubtful would be a big loss

The Lions are 7 point favourites.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/chicago-bears-at-detroit-lions/point-spread

unbackable at that i think but the Bears are an unreliable betting prospect

tempted by points unders 47.5

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/chicago-bears-at-detroit-lions/total-points

two teams know each other well, divisional rivalry, comparatively easy to scheme against each other on a short week


3

Seahawks at 49ers

might as well be a play off game

two hard nosed defensive led teams, points could be at a premium

this is reflected in points quotes around 40, by the far the lowest of the three games

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/total-points

Seahawks +1 shows how tough it is to call

the Seahawks were knocked black and blue by the Cardinals on Sunday, Wlson was sacked 8 times

this is a short turnround to this game after that and would expect them to run Lynch over 25 times this game

would expect him to go over 80+ yards rushing

in part this is because the 49ers might have the NFL’s best pass defense, ranking first in opposing passer rating (74.1), tied for first in opposing completion percentage (57.2) and second in passing yards allowed per game (207.2), and Seattle lack talent in the receivers...main offensive weapons are Lynch and Wilson running

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/total-rushing-yds-marshawn-lynch


Eagles should have better field position and win the battle of the hidden yards so like your Eagles outright bet 6/4

[Shrimper1]

Not putting it up as a recommendation (although I have played myself) but more for discussion,  what are peoples thoughts on arsenal at 13/8 at home to Dortmund?

This price implies that Dortmund are a slightly better side, and this does tally with the outright price differential and the corresponding fixture in Germany where they went off decent favourites. Despite this I think  it could be argued that the sides are of at least equal ability.

Arsenal  have under performed results wise in the league; despite this, their metrics are very impressive and imply that they are still a very decent side who have been unfortunate so far this season. Dortmund have won all of their CL games whilst being abysmal in the league where they lie in 16th position. Whilst they are clearly are in a false position and are a lot better than that, something is clearly not quite right.

Both teams have significant injury concerns, arsenal  will be without Wilshere and Martinez will deputise in goal, although they are boosted by the return to the squad of koscielny. Dortmund  have perhaps bigger problems with Reus being out long term, and have doubts over Hummels, Bender, Blaszczykowski.

Whilst Klopp has publicly stated that this is an important game for them and will certainly be keen to secure top spot, they have already qualified and the league will be the main focus at the moment. It is certainly a bigger game for Arsenal , although a point will be enough to secure qualification.

Weighing this all up arsenal look a bit of value to me at 13/8, anyone agree disagree?

[TightEnd]

re my comment above

"The Eagles stretch you horizontally and stress your perimeter defenders, and then they attack you inside with route combinations that create spacious crossing or seam patterns, often against overwhelmed linebackers or safeties. Second-round rookie wideout Jordan Matthews has become a big part of the offense because of these concepts, catching 18 balls for 322 yards and three touchdowns since Mark Sanchez took over three weeks ago."

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/11/26/nfl-thanksgiving-day-games-preview-andy-benoit-deep-dive/

12-1 first touchdown scorer is a sporting price given the way these teams match up

[Tal]

Interesting that Laddies have set a significantly lower line for Matt Forte's rushing yards. BMU, PP and Channing's Embassy all in the low seventies, where shouty red man goes 60.5. Given how quickly Chicago abandoned the run against Green Bay when they fell behind, I wonder whether they might have got this right.

[Eddycadub]

this is a short turnround to this game after that and would expect them to run Lynch over 25 times this game

would expect him to go over 80+ yards rushing

in part this is because the 49ers might have the NFL’s best pass defense, ranking first in opposing passer rating (74.1), tied for first in opposing completion percentage (57.2) and second in passing yards allowed per game (207.2), and Seattle lack talent in the receivers...main offensive weapons are Lynch and Wilson running

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/total-rushing-yds-marshawn-lynch

Lynch is an interesting fella, I like the reasoning for betting the over for him tomorrow fwiw

[Marky147]

this is a short turnround to this game after that and would expect them to run Lynch over 25 times this game

would expect him to go over 80+ yards rushing

in part this is because the 49ers might have the NFL’s best pass defense, ranking first in opposing passer rating (74.1), tied for first in opposing completion percentage (57.2) and second in passing yards allowed per game (207.2), and Seattle lack talent in the receivers...main offensive weapons are Lynch and Wilson running

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/total-rushing-yds-marshawn-lynch

Lynch is an interesting fella, I like the reasoning for betting the over for him tomorrow fwiw

Interesting is one way to put it

[arbboy]

http://www.nba.com/2014/news/features/scott_howard_cooper/11/26/2014-15-rookie-ladder-week-5/index.html

NBA rookie of the year update.  Our three selections are currently sitting 1st,2nd and 4th in the weekly updated ranking today on nba.com above.

Wiggins and Parker face off tonight for the first time in their NBA careers.  Should be interesting to watch how they perform given neither of their teams get much publicity nationally but there should be a fair bit of hype around the game tonight.

[horseplayer]

Few Champions League fancies not for fred just things i have dug up

Atletico Madrid have Miranda missing tonight, this makes Godin even more of a threat than usual but he should be double marked (22/1 if you can get it is ok) his partner is Jose Gimenez a very highly rated young Uruguayan centre back..... 40/1 is a bet if you can i think.

In the Leverkusen game once again like them to score more than 1 in first half and more than 4 in the game.

gd lk all

[tikay]

this is a short turnround to this game after that and would expect them to run Lynch over 25 times this game

would expect him to go over 80+ yards rushing

in part this is because the 49ers might have the NFL’s best pass defense, ranking first in opposing passer rating (74.1), tied for first in opposing completion percentage (57.2) and second in passing yards allowed per game (207.2), and Seattle lack talent in the receivers...main offensive weapons are Lynch and Wilson running

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/total-rushing-yds-marshawn-lynch

Lynch is an interesting fella, I like the reasoning for betting the over for him tomorrow fwiw

There is a backstory to that.......


http://www.smh.com.au/sport/does-marshawn-lynch-want-to-avoid-being-fined-again-yeah-20141124-11t7vg.html


More of the backstory is on his wiki page, along with his love of Skittles......


Lynch grew up in a tough neighborhood in Oakland, California with his three siblings and rarely saw his father. Lynch has several relatives who have also played professional football. His cousins are wide receiver Robert Jordan, who played alongside Lynch at Cal from 2004–2006; former Oakland Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell; and quarterback Josh Johnson of the San Francisco 49ers. Lynch's uncle, Lorenzo Lynch, had an eleven-year career in the NFL.
 
Lynch has referred to himself as being in "beast mode" during games, but it was also a nickname that has been in effect while on the Seahawks.
 
Lynch was nicknamed "Money" in college.
 
While in Buffalo, Lynch embraced the Buffalo community, in stark contrast to former Bills RB Willis McGahee, as noted by an interview with ESPN's Kenny Mayne. In the video interview, which has become an internet sensation, Lynch talks about his love of Applebee's, and his teammates joke that he loves chain restaurants. However, it should be noted that the interview was clearly scripted, tongue-in-cheek, and produced for entertainment purposes.
 
Lynch frequently eats Skittles during games, a habit which started when he was in high school. After Lynch was shown eating the candy during a nationally-televised game on December 5, 2011, Mars offered him a two-year supply of Skittles and a custom dispenser for his locker.[39] On December 30, 2011, he was fined $10,000 for wearing cleats featuring a Skittles pattern. On January 28, 2014, an official deal with Skittles was announced. In addition to personal compensation, $10,000 will be donated to his Fam First Foundation for each touchdown he may score in Super Bowl XLVIII.
 
Lynch also has an affinity for purchasing grills, saying he's been wearing the gold jewelry since junior high school. After the 2011 season, Lynch purchased a customized Seahawks grill in time for the 2012 season.
 
In June, 2008, Lynch plead guilty to a hit and run charge and had his driver's license revoked. Lynch was driving his 2008 Porsche Cayenne at 3:30am through Buffalo's bar district, when he struck a woman in the street and failed to stop. When questioned, Lynch stated "I didn't know my car had hit anyone or anything."
 
Lynch was arrested on July 14, 2012, by the California Highway Patrol for DUI after he was observed driving erratically. He was reported to have blown a 0.10 on the Breathalyzer at Alameda County Sheriff Department's North County Jail in Oakland. He was incarcerated hours before hosting a youth football camp. A motion to dismiss the case was denied in November 2013, but in December the trial date was pushed back until after the NFL season. Lynch's attorney, Ivan Golde, accused the police of bending the truth and changing stories to try to convict Lynch.
 
Lynch was fined $50,000 by the NFL for refusing to talk to the media throughout the 2013 NFL season, which inspired fans of the Seattle Seahawks to fundraise that amount. However, the fine was subsequently pulled back in an agreement that he will be fined another $50,000 if he breaks the same rule  and donates to charity the amount fundraised by Seahawks fans to pay his fine. Lynch is known for being reluctant to talk to the media.

Quite a character, it would seem.

[Shrimper1]

Not putting it up as a recommendation (although I have played myself) but more for discussion,  what are peoples thoughts on arsenal at 13/8 at home to Dortmund?

This price implies that Dortmund are a slightly better side, and this does tally with the outright price differential and the corresponding fixture in Germany where they went off decent favourites. Despite this I think  it could be argued that the sides are of at least equal ability.

Arsenal  have under performed results wise in the league; despite this, their metrics are very impressive and imply that they are still a very decent side who have been unfortunate so far this season. Dortmund have won all of their CL games whilst being abysmal in the league where they lie in 16th position. Whilst they are clearly are in a false position and are a lot better than that, something is clearly not quite right.

Both teams have significant injury concerns, arsenal  will be without Wilshere and Martinez will deputise in goal, although they are boosted by the return to the squad of koscielny. Dortmund  have perhaps bigger problems with Reus being out long term, and have doubts over Hummels, Bender, Blaszczykowski.

Whilst Klopp has publicly stated that this is an important game for them and will certainly be keen to secure top spot, they have already qualified and the league will be the main focus at the moment. It is certainly a bigger game for Arsenal , although a point will be enough to secure qualification.

Weighing this all up arsenal look a bit of value to me at 13/8, anyone agree disagree?

Well after the team news Arsenal have drifted massively, I recommend £20 at 9/5 with vee cee and 366. I am topping up could get quite expensive. The team news accounts for the drift I presume, Koscelny on the bench and Sanogo starting, whilst Dortmund have bender back but no Hummels

[tikay]

Not putting it up as a recommendation (although I have played myself) but more for discussion,  what are peoples thoughts on arsenal at 13/8 at home to Dortmund?

This price implies that Dortmund are a slightly better side, and this does tally with the outright price differential and the corresponding fixture in Germany where they went off decent favourites. Despite this I think  it could be argued that the sides are of at least equal ability.

Arsenal  have under performed results wise in the league; despite this, their metrics are very impressive and imply that they are still a very decent side who have been unfortunate so far this season. Dortmund have won all of their CL games whilst being abysmal in the league where they lie in 16th position. Whilst they are clearly are in a false position and are a lot better than that, something is clearly not quite right.

Both teams have significant injury concerns, arsenal  will be without Wilshere and Martinez will deputise in goal, although they are boosted by the return to the squad of koscielny. Dortmund  have perhaps bigger problems with Reus being out long term, and have doubts over Hummels, Bender, Blaszczykowski.

Whilst Klopp has publicly stated that this is an important game for them and will certainly be keen to secure top spot, they have already qualified and the league will be the main focus at the moment. It is certainly a bigger game for Arsenal , although a point will be enough to secure qualification.

Weighing this all up arsenal look a bit of value to me at 13/8, anyone agree disagree?

Well after the team news Arsenal have drifted massively, I recommend £20 at 9/5 with vee cee and 366. I am topping up could get quite expensive. The team news accounts for the drift I presume, Koscelny on the bench and Sanogo on the bench, whilst Dortmund have bender back but no Hummels

Bit late for Fred now, after young Sanago puts them one up inside a minute.

Hope you topped up in time and get the lot, though I fancy some nervous moments song the way.

[horseplayer]

Oh Lever

11 attempts to 1

hit the bar three times

missed three one and ones

think i have been here before

[tikay]

What a lovely goal by Sanchez.

[Tal]

Does anyone have a video of this? Would love to see it

http://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2014/11/fred_jackson_imitate_marshawn_lynch_speak_to_media_joke.html