Tips for Tikay

[swinebag22]

Darts tonight

I fancy:

Bunting/MVG draw @9/2 - MVG is on fire at the moment and maybe shouldn't be opposed but the 9/2 seems a bit big, or isn't it?? Bunting made a decent start last week on his debut.
chisnall to beat RVB @ 11/8. RVB was blown off stage by a rampant Lewis last week but also played like he couldn't give a fig. Anything over evens seems massive for Chizzy

Any opinions on these or others before I give my cash away??

I liked most of the draws at skysweat earlier in the week on the darts at their prices but they have cut most of them now.  i think following last week's form in Prem darts is the quickest way to the poor house.  The games are such short format that one weeks form isn't as relevant as people make out.  These are all top class players.  Lewis will be too short tonight on the back of last weeks effort and RVb/Wright (potentially) are probably over priced.

One other thing with the PL darts if you really fancy a player strongly at the price i would always lay the other guy as there is always another 1 or 2% of positive EV in the draw price so you get a slightly better bet laying the other guy than backing your fancy imo.

Thanks arb. great advice

[FUN4FRASER]

Value on South Africa with Hills @7-2 for the cricket world cup if anybody can get on

Even if its to lay back later as currently 4.1 on Betfair

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/world-cup/winner

[TightEnd]

Value on South Africa with Hills @7-2 for the cricket world cup if anybody can get on

Even if its to lay back later as currently 4.1 on Betfair

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/world-cup/winner

thanks

the 3 favourites have shortened a lot in the last week

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/world-cup/winner

Hills are at or better than betfair on all 3

http://sports.betfair.com/?rfr=63&mi=100725037&ex=2&mpch=ads

[arbboy]

typical Lewis in the darts.  World beater one week garbage the next!

Only a matter of time before a 7-0 turns up on the Prem league darts surely?  The bottom 3 look like sitting ducks every week for a hiding. 

[maldini32]

I had Osvaldo to join Boca. The bet said to join by 4th Feb. Argentina's window closes on the 15th. He's signed today, do I have a case?

[Marky147]

I had Osvaldo to join Boca. The bet said to join by 4th Feb. Argentina's window closes on the 15th. He's signed today, do I have a case?

Definitely not with Boyles...


I doubt it, but you can only ask, and hope that someone is feeling soft.

[geoff123]

ICC world cup

 Down here you can bet on virtually anything to do with the world cup. Indeed sportsbet have over 60 markets per game. The one that interests me is the first ball of the match. Dot ball 1.30, 1 run 4.20, 2 runs 21.00, 3 runs 67.00, 4 runs 14.00, 6 runs 67.00, wide 15.00, no ball 67.00, bye/leg bye 34.00, wicket 41.00.

 I highly doubt many first balls will go for 6, but the two i find appealing are no ball 67.00 and wicket 41.00.

 This is not a recommendation as unsure if you have this market in UK, but i have had a number of singles/doubles in various matches for no ball first ball, and others with wicket first ball.

[maldini32]

I had Osvaldo to join Boca. The bet said to join by 4th Feb. Argentina's window closes on the 15th. He's signed today, do I have a case?

Definitely not with Boyles...


I doubt it, but you can only ask, and hope that someone is feeling soft.

No joy. I don't run well in these novelty markets do I?! 😀

[ripple11]

ICC world cup

 Down here you can bet on virtually anything to do with the world cup. Indeed sportsbet have over 60 markets per game. The one that interests me is the first ball of the match. Dot ball 1.30, 1 run 4.20, 2 runs 21.00, 3 runs 67.00, 4 runs 14.00, 6 runs 67.00, wide 15.00, no ball 67.00, bye/leg bye 34.00, wicket 41.00.

 I highly doubt many first balls will go for 6, but the two i find appealing are no ball 67.00 and wicket 41.00.

 This is not a recommendation as unsure if you have this market in UK, but i have had a number of singles/doubles in various matches for no ball first ball, and others with wicket first ball.

We do have these markets....I've tried similar long odds bets occasionally, ie. a wide when its as a left hander that's going to face.
Never had one come off.....not to say there isn't some value with them.
I'll have a look our end.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £283.96

Outstanding Bets £3621.97

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=19

A loss of £15 yesterday, Schwartzmann beaten by Fognini in 3 sets

on a quiet sporting day for us and our book, there was one NBA game, the last before the All star break and the Chicago Bulls beat the Cleveland Cavs 113-98, we have positions on both

30 points for Derrick Rose

Click to see full-size image.

Chicago now a game ands a haldf ahead of Cleveland in their division, the pair are 3rd and 5th seeds for their conference in the play offs as of now

[arbboy]

All star break in the NBA.  No regular season games for a week now.  Seems a good time to provide a brief summary of the ante post positions now we are two thirds of the way through the season.
 
Start off with the biggest disappoint the Rondo bet.  The trade to Dallas has totally failed with Rondo and this bet which was always possible but not to this level.  He isn't getting anywhere near enough touches of the ball to register enough assists on a team which usually scores for fun.  He seems to be shooting more and passing less which is biazzre given his awful career shooting stats.  Dallas seem to have signed him for his defence more than anything.  Their team defensive stats are much improved since signing him but their offence is grinding to a halt relatively.  All very biazzre.  We will need to get incredibly lucky to grab 3rd place and an ew return.

Toronto/Portland are as good as weighed in for their Divisions.  1/100 Toronto is literally stealing money.  You will be paid out in 4 weeks max mathematically.  They are 15 games clear of their rivals with 29 games to play.  Portland are 8 games clear of OKC (their only danger) and are currently a 1/6 shot which seems too big.  The downside is they have a road heavy schedule to finish the season 13-16 home/road games left (OKC are the opposite 17-12 home/road games left).  OKC are starting to find their groove now their big 2 players are back fully fit.  8 games is a lot to catch up at this stage of the season.  On top of this Portland already have a 2-0 tie breaker against OKC in the regular season games (they play 4 times in total) and a much better division record.  These are the first two tie breakers.

Wiggins Rookie of the year is weighed in barring injury.  No one can catch him from here.  Even if he got injured soon after the all star break i think he has probably got enough form in the book already to have this locked up.  He is only going to see more of the ball as his team tank towards as poor a record as possible for the rest of the season.  They have just traded away one of their primary scorers pre trade deadline to another team which can only help him and the bet.  No one is remotely coming out of the pack to catch him.  If anything the main rivals are falling further away.  He is currently 1/12 with Paddy.

SA Spurs divisional bet.  Disappointing season so far.  Lot of injuries to key players at various times.  They have a fully fit squad now but are 5 games behind the leaders.  Still possible to catch Memphis but they have a key 6 game road trip straight after the all star break which will make or break this bet.

MVP - Davies.  Having an incredible year stats wise but don't think it is going to be enough to win this award unfortunately with his team stuck in the tough Western conference.  The nba do a PER rating which assesses a players overall stat contribution to his team across all categories and Davies has a rating above 30 which if he finished the season with it would be him historically as one of the greatest season long PER ratings ever (close to Jordan in his prime) which is incredible for a 2nd year player.  I still don't think this is going to be enough though

Outright/conference bets.  I can't remember all the bets we have here.  I know we have Cavs/Bulls/Raptors ew in the East.  I still don't see Atlanta winning the NBA or Eastern conference despite their awesome regular season record and pretty sure we have the winner of the East.  The Cavs look the real deal now they have boosted their squad with a mid season trade to bolster their bench.  They still have the Lebron after all and are rightly still the favs imo.  Superstars win titles historically in this league.

Can't think of any other bets we have had.

[TightEnd]

1 the cricket world cup starts tonight. we have some positions in sub markets...i have written up what to look for on the opening weekend at

http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/87

but didn't find much clear value on the indivudual games. open to suggestions if you find something..

there is a beautiful setting for the first game at 11pm today, in Christchurch. the hagley oval is in the middle of the world's fourth largest public park

Click to see full-size image.

2 fa cup fifth round ties. we are on stoke, who go to blackburn, for the cup. anyone sees anything in addition to west brom (carroll has been ruled out for 6 weeks with an MCL)..let us know

team news probably very important, of course..rotation, resting and motivation all issues...

Click to see full-size image.

3 tomorrow see's Haydock's grand national trial

13 runners, 13/2 the field http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/grand-national-trial/winner

and the Ascot chase http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/ascot-chase/winner

Name tomorrow's favourite...




4 the second weekend of the six nations

england are no leass than 28 point handicap favourites at home to italy

ireland 6 point favourites at home to the french

scotland - wales on sunday should be a tight one

any thoughts welcome

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations

Click to see full-size image.

5 a full football league programme this weekend

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship




i am sure there is other stuff as well..pebble beach, rotterdam etc etc

[TightEnd]

All star break in the NBA.  No regular season games for a week now.  Seems a good time to provide a brief summary of the ante post positions now we are two thirds of the way through the season.
 
Start off with the biggest disappoint the Rondo bet.  The trade to Dallas has totally failed with Rondo and this bet which was always possible but not to this level.  He isn't getting anywhere near enough touches of the ball to register enough assists on a team which usually scores for fun.  He seems to be shooting more and passing less which is biazzre given his awful career shooting stats.  Dallas seem to have signed him for his defence more than anything.  Their team defensive stats are much improved since signing him but their offence is grinding to a halt relatively.  All very biazzre.  We will need to get incredibly lucky to grab 3rd place and an ew return.

Toronto/Portland are as good as weighed in for their Divisions.  1/100 Toronto is literally stealing money.  You will be paid out in 4 weeks max mathematically.  They are 15 games clear of their rivals with 29 games to play.  Portland are 8 games clear of OKC (their only danger) and are currently a 1/6 shot which seems too big.  The downside is they have a road heavy schedule to finish the season 13-16 home/road games left (OKC are the opposite 17-12 home/road games left).  OKC are starting to find their groove now their big 2 players are back fully fit.  8 games is a lot to catch up at this stage of the season.  On top of this Portland already have a 2-0 tie breaker against OKC in the regular season games (they play 4 times in total) and a much better division record.  These are the first two tie breakers.

Wiggins Rookie of the year is weighed in barring injury.  No one can catch him from here.  Even if he got injured soon after the all star break i think he has probably got enough form in the book already to have this locked up.  He is only going to see more of the ball as his team tank towards as poor a record as possible for the rest of the season.  They have just traded away one of their primary scorers pre trade deadline to another team which can only help him and the bet.  No one is remotely coming out of the pack to catch him.  If anything the main rivals are falling further away.  He is currently 1/12 with Paddy.

SA Spurs divisional bet.  Disappointing season so far.  Lot of injuries to key players at various times.  They have a fully fit squad now but are 5 games behind the leaders.  Still possible to catch Memphis but they have a key 6 game road trip straight after the all star break which will make or break this bet.

MVP - Davies.  Having an incredible year stats wise but don't think it is going to be enough to win this award unfortunately with his team stuck in the tough Western conference.  The nba do a PER rating which assesses a players overall stat contribution to his team across all categories and Davies has a rating above 30 which if he finished the season with it would be him historically as one of the greatest season long PER ratings ever (close to Jordan in his prime) which is incredible for a 2nd year player.  I still don't think this is going to be enough though

Outright/conference bets.  I can't remember all the bets we have here.  I know we have Cavs/Bulls/Raptors ew in the East.  I still don't see Atlanta winning the NBA or Eastern conference despite their awesome regular season record and pretty sure we have the winner of the East.  The Cavs look the real deal now they have boosted their squad with a mid season trade to bolster their bench.  They still have the Lebron after all and are rightly still the favs imo.  Superstars win titles historically in this league.

Can't think of any other bets we have had.

NBA - Rookie of the Year 2014/15   Nerlens Noel 10/1   40
NBA Rookie of the year wiggins   7.0   20
nba rookie of the year   wiggins   7.0   80
nba championship   cavaliers   9/2   50
NBA Championship   Cavaliers   7/2   100
 NBA - Atlantic Division 2014/15    Toronto Raptors   5/6   100
 NBA - Southwest Division 2014/15 Dallas Mavericks   10/1   10
 NBA - Southwest Division 2014/15 San Antonio Spurs   1.83   60
NBA Championship   Chicago Bulls   8/1   40
NBA Championship   LA Clippers   12/1   40
NBA Championship   Toronto Raptors   66/1   20
nba season most assists Rajan Rondo   5/2   200
NCAA Basketball   Duke   10/1   5
NCAA Basketball   Duke   10/1   5
NCAA Basketball   Duke   10   10
NBA Northwestern division Portland Trailblazers   10/11   55
NBA MVP   A Davies   6/1   30
NBA Southwest division San Antonio Spurs   5/2   60
NBA Rookie of the year Wiggins LAY   1.2   20

is the list

[RickBFA]

Has Chompy got a view on Rochdale at Peterborough tomorrow. Best price is 11/5.

Looks like a bet to me unless Chompy has a different view?

[bunnydas8888]

one for tighty...

Whilst i appreciate recent form with NZ, to my eye they are over rated against sri lanka in the first match tonight.  I know they are at home and will have the crowd etc, but sri lanka are a decent side, have a good top order and malinga.  available at 2/1 with a few people, still think 7/4 is decent though.

thoughts?