Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

Peddlers Cross misses the Arkle.

Al Ferof into 7/2 best.

[Dubai]

Love games where a certain result is fine with both teams

Over 2.5 goals Arsenal v Milan 4-5 Ladbrokes £75
Arsenal to win 23-20 Hills £60

Both unders on betfair after com

[Dubai]

    
 
        
 Selection   Selection Details  Result  
 
 
 1
  
   European  
Arsenal v Milan
Total goals - over/under 2.5  
2012-03-06 19:45:00
Over @ 4/5
  Pending  
 
 
 
  Channel   Internet  
 
  Bet Placed At   06/03/2012  
 
  Bet Type   Single  
 
  Stake Per Line  xxxxx
 
  Number Of Lines   1  
 
  Total Stake Paid   xxxxx
 
  Total Tax @0.00% (Stake)   £0.00
 


 

Arsenal v AC Milan  –  Match Betting

 Arsenal @ 23/20

–

xxxxxxx

–

O/3133564/0000034/F


Already on for me, if u want these bets in morning Tikay and miss price at all then you can have it as part of my bet

[tikay]

Love games where a certain result is fine with both teams

Over 2.5 goals Arsenal v Milan 4-5 Ladbrokes £75
Arsenal to win 23-20 Hills £60

Both unders on betfair after com

Thanks DS, will sort them out shortly.

[tikay]

Peddlers Cross misses the Arkle.

Al Ferof into 7/2 best.

Excellent!

[tikay]

not sure if i am allowed to post in here but i think this is a little bit of value

"Cheltenham special bet

There to be 13 or more irish winners at the cheltenham festival 6-1 2PTS WIN (totesport or betfred)

i have been looking at this all day after somebody i respect pointed it out to me, last season the irish hit 13 winners and presumably the two bookies offering 6-1 for a repeat are thinking it was a fluke. I am not so sure mullins is clear fav to be champion trainer and not unusually they have lots of chances in all races with cheltenham become more and more the target for all trainers i happen to think last years numbers might become the norm rather than not.
"

thats from my thread not sure how your staking works.

It is quite hard to quantify what i think this price should be however my instinct and research suggests something around 3-1/7-2 is a more correct price based on the irish chances pre cheltenham last year to this year, this is of course subjective but is based on the ante post prices e.t.c

I do think there is something to wager on here but my gut feeling is that 11/4 for 11 or more Irish winners is better value than the 6/1 for 13 or more. What do you think about betting that at 11/4 for say £50?

I'd be very interested in Mr Horseplayers view on this.

[tikay]

Love games where a certain result is fine with both teams

Over 2.5 goals Arsenal v Milan 4-5 Ladbrokes £75
Arsenal to win 23-20 Hills £60

Both unders on betfair after com

ON.

Note - I placed the Win bet with BetVictor - same price.

Thanks! I can now watch what would have been a "dead" match with some interest.


 
Betslip - BET RECEIPT Your bets have been placed successfully.
Please find the details of your bets below.
 Selection4/5 - Over

EventArsenal v Milan European

MarketTotal goals - over/under 2.5
 Your bets (1) Single - Over
1 line at £75.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £75.00
Potential Return: £135.00
Time: 06/03/12 08:19
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000004

 
Arsenal v AC Milan
Arsenal
(Match Betting)
Odds:  23/20
Stake:  60.00
Possible Return:  129.00

[tikay]

   
      
Already on for me, if u want these bets in morning Tikay and miss price at all then you can have it as part of my bet

Thanks for that, but I was able to get on @ recommended prices.

[Graham C]

Love games where a certain result is fine with both teams

Over 2.5 goals Arsenal v Milan 4-5 Ladbrokes £75
Arsenal to win 23-20 Hills £60

Both unders on betfair after com

Thanks DS, will sort them out shortly.

I've laid Milan to qualify at 1.03. Can't say its a good bet but as a just in case, its a cheap bet to win a tidy amount.  It's not a tip, no need to comment

[MereNovice]

The Australian bowlers appear to be in the process of throwing the "Second Final" in the Commonwealth Bank Series.
If anyone can find a market for any Australian bowlers to be charged with corruption, please put a couple of bob on it for me.

[tikay]

Position as of 9am Tuesday. No changes or bets settled, just the two Arsenal CL wagers added, both unsettled.

March Account.

Investments;

Dubai, PL Darts, Anderson 180's, £50 (unsettled)

Chompy, Cloudy Lane, Chelters, £25 (unsettled)

Bobby, Leishman, Golf (£20, lost)

Camel, Barnet relegation, (£50, unsettled)

Camel, Al Ferof, Chelters, (£50 unsettled)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 1, £50 (WON, returned £91.67)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 2, £66 (LOST)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 3, £110 (LOST)

Dubai, Darts bet # 4, £48,  (WON, returned £88)

Snowball, Cricket, £50 (lost)

Mere, RL Scorer, £50 (WON, returned £110)

Whisper, 'Boro, £25, (WON returned £48.50)

maldini, WBA, £25 (WON, returned £82.67)

Ralph, Rory Lay, £120 (lost)

Dubai, CL Goals, £75 (unsettled)

Dubai, CL Result, £60 (unsettled)

Total invested = £874.00

_____________________________

Returns

PL Darts # 1, (Dubai) £91.67

PL Darts # 4, (Dubai) £88

RL, Scorer, (Mere), £110

M'Boro (Whisper) £48.50

WBA (maldini), £82.67

Total Returns = £419.17

__________________________

March Profit/Loss = £874 minus £419 = £455 loss. (Includes £290 cost of unsettled bets)

5 Unsettled bets , Anderson, Cloudy Lane, Barnet, Al Ferof, Arsenal Goals & Result= £290

[horseplayer]

"I do think there is something to wager on here but my gut feeling is that 11/4 for 11 or more Irish winners is better value than the 6/1 for 13 or more. What do you think about betting that at 11/4 for say £50?

I'd be very interested in Mr Horseplayers view on this."

that seems a fair price as well is it better value? again hard to quantify

[The Camel]

"I do think there is something to wager on here but my gut feeling is that 11/4 for 11 or more Irish winners is better value than the 6/1 for 13 or more. What do you think about betting that at 11/4 for say £50?

I'd be very interested in Mr Horseplayers view on this."

that seems a fair price as well is it better value? again hard to quantify

I don't like either bet on first glance.

Would have to do some research but both look skinny to me.

Off the top of my head:

While the Irish have three short priced favourites (Hurricane F, Sizing E and Quivega) which you might put in for 1.75 winners they look ALOT weaker than usual in the novice hurdle and chase area.

Boston Bob is likely to be their only contender to be 4/1 or less in these races which are often a rich source of Irish winners. You'd be hard pressed to give them more than 1.75 winners imo.

The bumper and the cross country are usually bankers, but the vibes I've heard are not srtong in the former this time around.. and the British have won the last 2.  1.25 winners (and I'm being generous!)

To get to 11 winners, the Irish might need 5.75 winners or so in the handicaps. That looks a HUGE ask to me.

I'd happily lay 3/1 11 or more winners.

[adnmdv]

If the bet is what I think it is (just betting on the over/under of total Irish winners at Cheltenham?) could you not derive the price pretty easily from looking at the odds of the races and summing up?

[The Camel]

If the bet is what I think it is (just betting on the over/under of total Irish winners at Cheltenham?) could you not derive the price pretty easily from looking at the odds of the races and summing up?

Yep. But I couldn't be arsed (it would be pretty time consuming) and that's what the bookmakers will have done anyways.

Unless you have solid reasons to believe the Irish will do better than expected (heavy rain forecast? a couple of the very short priced British will be non runners?), I doubt this represents value.