Tips for Tikay

[maldini32]

There were rumours Gayle was gonna make it backl for this test as RCB got knocked out but that never materialised. I'd agree with what you've said there regarding players, Id throw in Dwayne Bravo too.

Ps Narine is gonna be a superstar, watched him play last year- sheer class.

[tikay]

Boxing Banzai

Froch v Bute - Draw @ 22/1 PP/WH

Bute is favourite but his price looks short enough to me.  He is taking a step up in class against Froch who has operated at the top level for the past 3 years and only been beaten by the best.  In recent times Bute has beaten his challengers with the minimum of fuss but the likes of Brinkley, Magee, Johnson are a level below the top guys.  I think he will outbox Froch but he is in his opponents back yard and getting a decision won't be easy unless he wins convincingly.  Froch has a great chin so unlikely to be stopped.  Additionally their is a rematch clause in the contracts for a return match in Canada which will be worth $$.  A draw wouldn't be a "bad" result for either fighter.  I think it's a live outsider here and worth a speculative £10

Quite beyond my understanding how we can back a draw, but you are the man, & you did say "speculative". 22/1 sounds especially speccy to me.

We have £10 with Wm Hill, 22/1, the Draw. I believe the coming together is Saturday evening.

Thanks Bazza.

ON

26 May 2012 - Carl Froch v Lucian Bute - Bout Betting

Draw @ 22/1

Stake : £10.00
Estimated Returns : £230.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000015/F

[MereNovice]

Anderson was the pick of the England bowlers today but didn't have much luck.
His spell with a fairly new ball tomorrow morning will probably decide our bet.

[smashedagain]

Boxing Banzai

Froch v Bute - Draw @ 22/1 PP/WH

Bute is favourite but his price looks short enough to me.  He is taking a step up in class against Froch who has operated at the top level for the past 3 years and only been beaten by the best.  In recent times Bute has beaten his challengers with the minimum of fuss but the likes of Brinkley, Magee, Johnson are a level below the top guys.  I think he will outbox Froch but he is in his opponents back yard and getting a decision won't be easy unless he wins convincingly.  Froch has a great chin so unlikely to be stopped.  Additionally their is a rematch clause in the contracts for a return match in Canada which will be worth $$.  A draw wouldn't be a "bad" result for either fighter.  I think it's a live outsider here and worth a speculative £10

Quite beyond my understanding how we can back a draw, but you are the man, & you did say "speculative". 22/1 sounds especially speccy to me.

We have £10 with Wm Hill, 22/1, the Draw. I believe the coming together is Saturday evening.

Thanks Bazza.

ON

26 May 2012 - Carl Froch v Lucian Bute - Bout Betting

Draw @ 22/1

Stake : £10.00
Estimated Returns : £230.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000015/F

this could happen

[redarmi]

Hard to see why Chanderpaul is still 5/2 for top 1st innings Windies scores. He was top in 1st and 2nd innings at Lords scored 46% of the teams runs in the previous series v Aus, is #1 batsmen in the world and is selfish to boot.

Sandy

I really struggled to dismiss this one Sandy, especially with your record, I think it was arguably the bet of the bunch, but so many have argued that the price is too thin.

Hope you had a nice bet, & you collect.

Really difficult decision, this one.

It's your money and totally up to you how you spend it.

Some you win and some you don't. I still don't think it's a bad bet despite the criticism and Samuels on the Brink.

As long as people don't aftertime then opinions either way are all valid, even when they are wrong

It reminds me of Tiger Woods breaking through in golf. The prices were unheard of in golf betting before him and after a while the prices became acceptable.

This is a very good point generally.  Sometimes someone or something comes along and changes the whole structure of the probabilities.  Tiger is a good example and you rarely saw a golfer in single figures before him and then all of a sudden he was 5/2 every week and value at it quite often.  The problem is I am not sure this case is a good example of something changing so fundamentally.  First of all we are relying on Chanderpaul who is 37 and totally exposed as a cricketer.  We have a very good idea of what he is likely to score.  It is about fifty.   Yes the others aren't scoring heavily at the moment but they all have first class averages in the late 30's and are more unexposed than Chanderpaul.

[tikay]

Howyadoingnotsobad, 7.00 Lingfield tomorrow. 12/1 with Bet365. Incred!

"maximum bet £0.83"

My reputation precedes me.

[77dave]

would not argue with narine but shillingford looked more than useful to me against aus

sarwan is supposed to be on a massive contract at Leicester and gayle who has more talent than the current batting side all together has never been a team player.

Sarwan managed 9 and 17 against Kent today

[horseplayer]

good quote from our geoffrey

Geoffrey Boycott, BBC Test Match Special
"I thought it was a smashing day's cricket. I was pleased for the captain, Sammy, he gets so much criticism, not many people can bat like Viv Richards or bowl like Michael Holding, but he has got strong character and he shows it. They've got a reasonably decent position. If they could make another 50, 60, 80 even, then they really do have something to bowl with."

[Chompy]

Howyadoingnotsobad, 7.00 Lingfield tomorrow. 12/1 with Bet365. Incred!

"maximum bet £0.83"

My reputation precedes me.

Seriously, they should be embarrassed. If they're full up at 12/1, cut the price and let folk have a few quid on.

[gatso]

Very interesting one I have here - well I could do with some help finding out clarifications on the rules.

$10k Heads-up at WSOP 2012 - Event 5.

Bodog/Bovada are running a book on the number of entrants - and they have set the OVER/UNDER at 256.5.

I recommend a bet on the UNDER @ 10/11.

This is solely based on one thing - it's a HU tourney and I'm pretty sure, but can't confirm yet, that the WSOP do not allow byes, meaning that this event will either get 256 runners, or 512 runners, which is the cap. Basically, if I'm right on the lack of byes, the event has to hit its cap for us to lose, and last year the $10k 6-max (no $10k HU last year) didn't get 512 and the kidz LOVE 6-max.

Surely that can't be right Adam?
If they get 350ish entries, they aren't going to turn 100 away?

I'm honestly not sure.

Perusal of the rules was about as helpful as a chocolate fireguard.

the event jake won had a 256 cap and 128 entrants so that was probs the rule last year

[Horneris]

Thanks for the figures update, I get it now.

Would like to offer up my first tip for Euro 2012.

£40-£50 Aleksandr Kerzhakov Top Russain Goalscorer @ 7/1 VC http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/russia-euro-2012-specials/top-goalscorer

This is a really interesting one. We've gone in at 9/1, 8/1 and 7/1. Make it about a 4/1 chance (no bigger than 3/1 if he was 100% guaranteed to start).

Scored 25 in 33 for Zenit this season, always gets in great positions. He scored in a friendly today and really impressed, playing one half whilst an unimpressive Pogrebnyak played the other.
The Russain journalist covering the match tweeted:
"Within 8 minutes off coming on at half time Kerzhakov has shown why he has to start ahead of Pogrebnyak. Russia look much livelier now"

Spoken to many Russain experts on twitter who have said that he will start in the middle of a forward 3 with Arshavin and Dzagoev outside.

Bookies seem to think Pavluychenko may play making him favourite, which is fairly mind boggling. In qualifying, 5 times Kerzhakov started whilst Pav was on the bench but 0 times vice versa, whenever Pav started Kerza was injured. He has been awful this season.

He even presented the kit here: http://www.rt.com/sport/football/russia-euro2012-squad-kerzhakov-zenit-football-478/
It is worth noting that the Russain manager Advocaat sold Kerza in 2006 (as that article aludes to). But it seems he has long since learned from his mistake.

[horseplayer]

lucky numbers should win the next at catterick

i am balls deep so to speak at around 6-1 (9-2) now still a fair price

firm ground is needed

[Horneris]

lucky numbers should win the next at catterick

lol what?

If it should win it would be odds on, not 9/2.

[FUN4FRASER]

Thanks for the figures update, I get it now.

Would like to offer up my first tip for Euro 2012.

£40-£50 Aleksandr Kerzhakov Top Russain Goalscorer @ 7/1 VC http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/russia-euro-2012-specials/top-goalscorer

This is a really interesting one. We've gone in at 9/1, 8/1 and 7/1. Make it about a 4/1 chance (no bigger than 3/1 if he was 100% guaranteed to start).

Scored 25 in 33 for Zenit this season, always gets in great positions. He scored in a friendly today and really impressed, playing one half whilst an unimpressive Pogrebnyak played the other.
The Russain journalist covering the match tweeted:
"Within 8 minutes off coming on at half time Kerzhakov has shown why he has to start ahead of Pogrebnyak. Russia look much livelier now"

Spoken to many Russain experts on twitter who have said that he will start in the middle of a forward 3 with Arshavin and Dzagoev outside.

Bookies seem to think Pavluychenko may play making him favourite, which is fairly mind boggling. In qualifying, 5 times Kerzhakov started whilst Pav was on the bench but 0 times vice versa, whenever Pav started Kerza was injured. He has been awful this season.

He even presented the kit here: http://www.rt.com/sport/football/russia-euro2012-squad-kerzhakov-zenit-football-478/
It is worth noting that the Russain manager Advocaat sold Kerza in 2006 (as that article aludes to). But it seems he has long since learned from his mistake.

great write up

[FUN4FRASER]

lucky numbers should win the next at catterick

lol what?

If it should win it would be odds on, not 9/2.

crap write up