Tips for Tikay

[MereNovice]

What's Coming up?

Not much.

Bit of a worry to hear that Strauss mentioned maybe resting his front-line bowlers for the third Test, next week. We are on 3-1 whitewash, it is currently 2-0.

It's Derby week, so it is the Oaks on Friday, we are with "Vow" @ 10/1, (horseplayer) currently best priced 6/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/the-oaks

Our first French Girlie Tennis action is tomorrow, I think.

Agnieska Radwanska plays Venus Williams tomorrow.
We effectively have Venus Williams at 7/2 for this match.
Current best odds are:
Radwanska 4/9
Williams 2/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/womens-french-open/agnieszka-radwanska-v-venus-williams/winner

The match isn't available on Betfair yet.

So we have value there.
Just thought that I'd mention that for those that are inclined to "green out".

[Karabiner]

Re bumped this Tony just in case you missed it from earlier

Just found this little nugget of value .....

Robin V P to be top Arsenal Euro Scorer @ 8 -11 with Hills and Boyles (way too big) .

Lucas Podolski his main rival has been used on the left hand side of midfield for Germany in recent times and isnt as prolific a goalscorer as a few years ago .

Walcott & Ox Chamberlain wont play enough to threaten and even if they do get some match time they are normally out on the wing

I suggest max bet £220 or £165 but the problem is one decent sized bet with Hills and the price will go      

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/top-arsenal-goalscorer

Reckon the price will last a few days Fraser?
Holland play tomorrow and Saturday. I'm worried Huntelaar gets in as the main striker and RVP ends up in a similar position to Podolski.

RVP has been playing on the right-hand side of a front three for Holland for the last couple of seasons.

? Strange comment sir , as its normally Kuyt or Robben on the right...with RVP sole striker or a left sided striker if Huntelar comes on

Regardlees RVP will still get plenty of match time and in my opinion will  be the prefered striker

I beg to differ, and I am an Arsenal fan who has followed RVP's career quite closely.

I don't think it has stopped his flow of goals and I am not dissing your bet.

[tikay]

Re bumped this Tony just in case you missed it from earlier

Just found this little nugget of value .....

Robin V P to be top Arsenal Euro Scorer @ 8 -11 with Hills and Boyles (way too big) .

Lucas Podolski his main rival has been used on the left hand side of midfield for Germany in recent times and isnt as prolific a goalscorer as a few years ago .

Walcott & Ox Chamberlain wont play enough to threaten and even if they do get some match time they are normally out on the wing

I suggest max bet £220 or £165 but the problem is one decent sized bet with Hills and the price will go      

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/top-arsenal-goalscorer

Thanks Fraser.

Both Boyles & Wm Hill still offer 8/11.

I'm a bit hesitant, something does not feel quite right with this. He's the greatest, of that there is no doubt, but he's had a very long season, & quite often, in such cases, they go a bit flat in the summer internationals.

So, we'll just have £110 to win £80, & we've gone with Wm Hill.

ON

 08 Jun 2012 - Euro 2012 - Top Club Goalscorer - Top Arsenal Goalscorer

Robin van Persie @ 8/11

Stake : £110.00
Estimated Returns : £190.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000017/F

I really like it  and remember he hasnt many recognised goalscoring players to beat  so GL us

Im on it with you now after a full day spent betting it in bits yesterday

PS  think you will be able to send the other $48 on stars now as the limit is $200 daily

Ooh, thanks for the reminder, clean forgot. Will sort when I get home from work.

[TightEnd]

Don't forget Dai Greene in your quest to have all 10 shortlisted for the SPOTY before that Sunday night in November

[FUN4FRASER]

Re bumped this Tony just in case you missed it from earlier

Just found this little nugget of value .....

Robin V P to be top Arsenal Euro Scorer @ 8 -11 with Hills and Boyles (way too big) .

Lucas Podolski his main rival has been used on the left hand side of midfield for Germany in recent times and isnt as prolific a goalscorer as a few years ago . I
Walcott & Ox Chamberlain wont play enough to threaten and even if they do get some match time they are normally out on the wing

I suggest max bet £220 or £165 but the problem is one decent sized bet with Hills and the price will go      

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/top-arsenal-goalscorer

Reckon the price will last a few days Fraser?
Holland play tomorrow and Saturday. I'm worried Huntelaar gets in as the main striker and RVP ends up in a similar position to Podolski.

RVP has been playing on the right-hand side of a front three for Holland for the last couple of seasons.

? Strange comment sir , as its normally Kuyt or Robben on the right...with RVP sole striker or a left sided striker if Huntelar comes on

Regardlees RVP will still get plenty of match time and in my opinion will  be the prefered striker

I beg to differ, and I am an Arsenal fan who has followed RVP's career quite closely.

I don't think it has stopped his flow of goals and I am not dissing your bet.

I beg to differ too in the friendlist of ways    as I watch a lot of International football plus researched the previous  Holland teams and formations so unless my eyes and fact finding lie Im not sure what to say...anyway long may RVP prosper  

[tikay]

What's Coming up?

Not much.

Bit of a worry to hear that Strauss mentioned maybe resting his front-line bowlers for the third Test, next week. We are on 3-1 whitewash, it is currently 2-0.

It's Derby week, so it is the Oaks on Friday, we are with "Vow" @ 10/1, (horseplayer) currently best priced 6/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/the-oaks

Our first French Girlie Tennis action is tomorrow, I think.

Agnieska Radwanska plays Venus Williams tomorrow.
We effectively have Venus Williams at 7/2 for this match.
Current best odds are:
Radwanska 4/9
Williams 2/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/womens-french-open/agnieszka-radwanska-v-venus-williams/winner

The match isn't available on Betfair yet.

So we have value there.
Just thought that I'd mention that for those that are inclined to "green out".

Ahh, now I "get" the bet, very clever.

Green out? Me? Never been known......

We also have Serena outright, @ 5/1, yes?

Just as a matter of interest, is Caroline Wozzywotsit still in?

[tikay]

Don't forget Dai Greene in your quest to have all 10 shortlisted for the SPOTY before that Sunday night in November

Will do, Rich.

I got a bit derailed with stuff yesterday, you know how it is......took my eye of the Tips ball.

[MereNovice]

Ms. Wozniacki will play her first match this afternoon so she is still in!
She is fourth match up on Court 1.

[doubleup]

However, if anyone can find us the winner of Saturday's "Epsom Dash", I'll give them a big kiss. The current co-favs (just the 5 of them) are all around 12/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/epsom-dash

I'd be intersted to hear from the Elders & Betters what view they take on these huge field sprints, including the EW line. 

This particular race (possibly because of the unusual track) quite often has fewer than 16 runners, so it isn't quite the same as the other huge field handicaps.  So I would assume that a lot of these are going to withdraw.

If I'm going to bet on any of these there has to be an angle that allows me to narrow down the field to a manageable amount.  Usually something like a draw bias or late going change.

On this particular race although the horse drawn 1 has won the race, the general bias is towards the higher numbers (particularly in softish going).

In the last 15 runnings, 25 horses that have won their previous race have taken part and none have won, 10 of the 15 being won by horses who were 2nd to 5th in their previous outing.

The horses in the 1st 5 of the betting have won 10 of the last 15 with 3rd favourite winning 4 and being most profitable.

So probably best to wait until after the draw to make your choice.

[tikay]

Very nice summing up Mr Double, thanks.

[tikay]

Ms. Wozniacki will play her first match this afternoon so she is still in!
She is fourth match up on Court 1.

I may try & watch some of the French Open, I believe Eurosport cover it Live, with my good friends Ginny Wade &....errr, Greg someone.....

[Somerled]

Very nearly put up my first tip this morning - Pastoral Jet @ 8-1 5.50 Lingfield - but lacked the confidence. Now Hugh Taylor's put it up and the price has gone.

Maybe tomorrow...

[Chompy]

If anyone is wanting 4/1 Jessica Ennis, best be quick, it won't be around for long.

[tikay]

Very nearly put up my first tip this morning - Pastoral Jet @ 8-1 5.50 Lingfield - but lacked the confidence. Now Hugh Taylor's put it up and the price has gone.

Maybe tomorrow...

No!

Don't be shy though, we can always say "no".

Once we take the bet, I take the blame. Apparently.

[TightEnd]

Next weekend the England Rugby Team fly to South Africa for their three Test Summer Tour

The first extended tour of that country by a single nation since New Zealand toured in 1996

First off we are straight off the plane into a Test Match in Durban next Saturday. This is ludicrous under-preparation, and we should lose that game

Jun 09: SOUTH AFRICA v ENGLAND, 1ST TEST, Durban (5pm)
Jun 13: SA Barbarians South v England, Kimberley (3pm)
Jun 16: SOUTH AFRICA v ENGLAND, 2ND TEST, Johannesburg (5pm)
Jun 19: SA Barbarians North v England, Potchefstroom, (7:10pm)
Jun 23: SOUTH AFRICA v ENGLAND, 3RD TEST, Port Elizabeth (5pm)


Its the end of a long season, and the SA team is at the beginning of theirs

While there have been encouraging signs under Stuart Lancaster, England are still less than a season into rebuild. SA are a hardened experienced team.

In general, standards in the Southern Hemisphere are above the Northern Hemisphere. Wales are the best team up here and the most recent form guide we have is Australia narrowly beating SA in the RWC Quarter final then narrowly beating Wales in the Semi


The prices?


http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/international-matches/south-africa-england/series-correct-score

Ugh at the price on SA 3-0. 4/6

The question is, can England win either the second of third test to make 2-1 SA an interesting bet?

To consider this I project that we go 1-0 down at Durban, and lose at altitude in Joburg

2-0 down with 1 to play, we go to Port Elizabeth

"dead rubbers" can often see the leading team relax a bit.

Port Elizabeth is back at sea level




I looked at Test Matches at Port Elizabeth.

Now here "Nelson Mandela Bay" stadium



Starting in the 1995 World Cup

Qualifying Stage: Total Points Scored Each Game

Sea Level (Groups A and B)
   
Points Scored
Venue    Game 1    Game 2    Game 3    Total    Average
East London    60    58    56    174    58
Durban            42    47    66    155    52
Stellenbosch    45    -    -    45    45
Cape Town    45    29    -    74    37
Port Elizabeth    37    38    20    95    32

Altitude (Groups C and D)
   
Points Scored
Venue         Game 1 Game 2    Game 3    Total    Average
Bloemfontein    67    78    162    307    102
Rustenberg    89    72    40    191    64
Johannesburg    62    43    47    152    51
Pretoria           48    46    41    135    45

Notably fewer points in PE than any other venue, and 20 points fewer than the other venues for these Test Matches. Why?

It's coastal and temperate. Durban is coastal and humid

"the weather tends to be less hot and the climate is noticeably less humid than in northern regions of South Africa."

So the ball flies through the air less, long distance penalties for example are far tougher than an altitude

In addition, PE is known as the "The Windy City"

"has a subtropical climate with light rain throughout the year. Under the Koppen climate classification, Port Elizabeth has an oceanic climate. The area lies between the winter rainfall, Mediterranean climate zones of the Western Cape and the summer rainfall regions of eastern South Africa. Winters are cool but mild and summers are warm but considerably less humid and hot than more northerly parts of South Africa's east coast"

I then looked at recent form. In 2011 only 23 points scored in the TriNations game at the venue

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Tri_Nations_Series#South_Africa_v._New_Zealand.2C_Port_Elizabeth


I think we have a fighting chance of winning that last game in the most "English conditions" we will encounter all tour

Anything that plays to our stodgy strengths, gives us the best chance


Recommend a banzai 2-1 on 2-1 South Africa, 1/4 max bet