Next weekend the England Rugby Team fly to South Africa for their three Test Summer Tour
The first extended tour of that country by a single nation since New Zealand toured in 1996
First off we are straight off the plane into a Test Match in Durban next Saturday. This is ludicrous under-preparation, and we should lose that game
Jun 09: SOUTH AFRICA v ENGLAND, 1ST TEST, Durban (5pm)
Jun 13: SA Barbarians South v England, Kimberley (3pm)
Jun 16: SOUTH AFRICA v ENGLAND, 2ND TEST, Johannesburg (5pm)
Jun 19: SA Barbarians North v England, Potchefstroom, (7:10pm)
Jun 23: SOUTH AFRICA v ENGLAND, 3RD TEST, Port Elizabeth (5pm)
Its the end of a long season, and the SA team is at the beginning of theirs
While there have been encouraging signs under Stuart Lancaster, England are still less than a season into rebuild. SA are a hardened experienced team.
In general, standards in the Southern Hemisphere are above the Northern Hemisphere. Wales are the best team up here and the most recent form guide we have is Australia narrowly beating SA in the RWC Quarter final then narrowly beating Wales in the Semi
The prices?
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/international-matches/south-africa-england/series-correct-scoreUgh at the price on SA 3-0. 4/6
The question is, can England win either the second of third test to make 2-1 SA an interesting bet?
To consider this I project that we go 1-0 down at Durban, and lose at altitude in Joburg
2-0 down with 1 to play, we go to Port Elizabeth
"dead rubbers" can often see the leading team relax a bit.
Port Elizabeth is back at sea level

I looked at Test Matches at Port Elizabeth.
Now here "Nelson Mandela Bay" stadium

Starting in the 1995 World Cup
Qualifying Stage: Total Points Scored Each Game
Sea Level (Groups A and B)
Points Scored
Venue Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Total Average
East London 60 58 56 174 58
Durban 42 47 66 155 52
Stellenbosch 45 - - 45 45
Cape Town 45 29 - 74 37
Port Elizabeth 37 38 20 95 32
Altitude (Groups C and D)
Points Scored
Venue Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Total Average
Bloemfontein 67 78 162 307 102
Rustenberg 89 72 40 191 64
Johannesburg 62 43 47 152 51
Pretoria 48 46 41 135 45
Notably fewer points in PE than any other venue, and 20 points fewer than the other venues for these Test Matches. Why?
It's coastal and temperate. Durban is coastal and humid
"the weather tends to be less hot and the climate is noticeably less humid than in northern regions of South Africa."
So the ball flies through the air less, long distance penalties for example are far tougher than an altitude
In addition, PE is known as the "The Windy City"
"has a subtropical climate with light rain throughout the year. Under the Koppen climate classification, Port Elizabeth has an oceanic climate. The area lies between the winter rainfall, Mediterranean climate zones of the Western Cape and the summer rainfall regions of eastern South Africa. Winters are cool but mild and summers are warm but considerably less humid and hot than more northerly parts of South Africa's east coast"
I then looked at recent form. In 2011 only 23 points scored in the TriNations game at the venue
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Tri_Nations_Series#South_Africa_v._New_Zealand.2C_Port_ElizabethI think we have a fighting chance of winning that last game in the most "English conditions" we will encounter all tour
Anything that plays to our stodgy strengths, gives us the best chance
Recommend a banzai 2-1 on 2-1 South Africa, 1/4 max bet