Tips for Tikay

[Simon Galloway]

What twit started the spoty discussions this early?

Olympic gold a pre-requisite for the award imo, pays yer money, takes yer chance.

[bobby1]

It isn't going to happen, ofc, and I'm not suggesting a bet but, if England won the Euro's obv no athlete gets a look in. If they did win then would we expect the captain to win it a high majorty of the time or whoever scored the winner in the final, etc ? Gerrard is 250/1 to win it so slightly bigger than the price Eng are to win the Euro's.

I'll run round DTD cardroom naked if any Pro Punter were ever to agree with that. *

* T & C's apply. I'm bluffing.  

Does T 's and C's mean you will include your testies and **** when doing that streak?
 

 

[tikay]

What twit started the spoty discussions this early?

Olympic gold a pre-requisite for the award imo, pays yer money, takes yer chance.

Umm, one S Galloway I believe, with a saily bloke, Ben Ainslie.  16/1 (Nap).

[Simon Galloway]

My logic was that if you want value, get on spoty before the Olympics unfold. Id be happy to rip up my money if ennis wins it, and at the price, I'm happy with my selection against the others

[redarmi]

Ennis is 11/10 to win the Heptathlon but I think we are overestimating her chances if she wins a little.  She is not a certainty to win spoty if she does.  There is going to be significant attention on all gold mealists at these games and I think a double gold medalist in any sport is a runner as are Becks, the cyclists and anyone with a 'story'.  She is obviously short but she needs to be evens or bigger to win after winning gold if she is to be value at this price.  She may be but it is close.  I think she is an okay bet at 4/1 and a great bet as Chompy initially recommended but I wouldn't be taking too short about her.  Oh, and if you hsve never seen her Tikay you are being unfair on your eyes!!!

[Doobs]

Too early for SPOTY?

Thinking an Olympian Gold medalist at a decent price has to be the way to go.  Ben Ainslie won gold in 2004 and 2008, (silver and gold previously in the laser class) a treble this year in the Finn class would have to merit strong consideration surely.  Ennis obv the main danger, but obviously at a shorter price.

I'm on a 16/1 (available Boyle/PP)

I'm having a decent sized paddle on this, but for the fund a cheeky pony @ 16s (better if anyone can find it obv)

You got it.

£25 @ 16/1, Ben Ainslie to be 2012 SPOTY, with PP.

6 month sweat, this, but we should know the score once the Olympics are over. 

ON

BBC Sports Personality BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2012
01-06-2012 12:00
Outright Betting
B Ainslie @ 16/1
 
Your Bets Win
Single: B Ainslie @ 16/1
1 line at £25.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £25.00
Potential returns: £425.00
No: O/23146337/0000039  

Yuck, this looks horrid to me.  I used to watch the Americas cup when it was on, but sailing just isn't much of a watch.  He is obviously absolute top class at what he does, but nobody will be watching.  I expect far more to tune into the jessica ennis and mo farad silvers golds.

Looks like I started a betting coup here.  Looks like I speak and the betting world listens.

Of course I immediately backed Mo Farad (!) after writing this.  He has drifted, presumably as a result of the Ennis train I started.  

[ACE2M]

just for information relating to a bet on the thread - England likely to rest some key players for the final test against West Indies.

[tikay]

Gotta love Doobs. He got owned. Or was it me?

[ACE2M]

I'm a backer or Eden Hazard to score more than 5.5 goals for chelsea next year. Available at VC at 8/11 - already backed in from 5/6.

any thoughts?

[geordieneil]

What twit started the spoty discussions this early?

Olympic gold a pre-requisite for the award imo, pays yer money, takes yer chance.

Umm, one S Galloway I believe, with a saily bloke, Ben Ainslie.  16/1 (Nap).

i believe that twit was me about 5-6 weeks ago, but 16's e/w and no nap mentioned ......also mentioned Ennis at 6's aswell

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1557615#msg1557615

[FUN4FRASER]

Ennis is 11/10 to win the Heptathlon but I think we are overestimating her chances if she wins a little.  She is not a certainty to win spoty if she does.  There is going to be significant attention on all gold mealists at these games and I think a double gold medalist in any sport is a runner as are Becks, the cyclists and anyone with a 'story'.  She is obviously short but she needs to be evens or bigger to win after winning gold if she is to be value at this price.  She may be but it is close.  I think she is an okay bet at 4/1 and a great bet as Chompy initially recommended but I wouldn't be taking too short about her.  Oh, and if you hsve never seen her Tikay you are being unfair on your eyes!!!

Great SPOTY Analysis by Tighty yet again (obv too much time on his hands    ) though Im a bit more inclined to agree with red that there are a lot of eventualities and of course Ryan Giggs winning proved you dont have to  have charisma to win The Spoty .

My conclusion is that 4-1 for Ennis is pretty short (obv she could win it )but I do think it will go to a gold Olympian or Gerrard should we win The Euros (miracle with Terry The Nazi in the team )..Ill be splashing about at the big prices ,Green ,Farah and Gerrard and perhaps some other long shot that gets tipped up.

[FUN4FRASER]

I'm a backer or Eden Hazard to score more than 5.5 goals for chelsea next year. Available at VC at 8/11 - already backed in from 5/6.

any thoughts?

My Chelsea man tells me hes in talks so if he does sign obv its a near certainty

Further thoughts...If he does sign I have him at 1-8 minimum to score over 5.5

[bobby1]

It isn't going to happen, ofc, and I'm not suggesting a bet but, if England won the Euro's obv no athlete gets a look in. If they did win then would we expect the captain to win it a high majorty of the time or whoever scored the winner in the final, etc ? Gerrard is 250/1 to win it so slightly bigger than the price Eng are to win the Euro's.

wow spooky, ive just typed that out and backed it too. It's a basic math error really, if England are 12/1 to win Euro 2012 then they are saying by being 250/1 for SPOTY that the England captain would then be around 18/1 to win SPOTY. That is obv v v wrong, I don't fancy England at all but at 250/1 they have priced him up on what he has done this season at this point, not what might happen between now and the SPOTY taking place.

obv got laid schrapnel tho.

A really similar bet to that which was on a thread on here years ago( not sure how to find it) was backing Darren Clarke to win SPOTY when he announced he would make himself available for selection for the Ryder Cup after taking a lot of time away from the game. He was in some lists at 66/1 which didn't take into account the possibility of him being the hero of the Ryder cup that year, which he was.

He traded about 1/3 in the lead up to the event and then was beaten( prob by the NOTW printing a story on the day of voting that Clarke had a new girlfriend, with pics of them all loved up)

By betting 66 there, you know if he has a mare its a loser but if it goes right he is miles shorter and that Gerrard price is exactly the same kind of thing.

[mondatoo]

It isn't going to happen, ofc, and I'm not suggesting a bet but, if England won the Euro's obv no athlete gets a look in. If they did win then would we expect the captain to win it a high majorty of the time or whoever scored the winner in the final, etc ? Gerrard is 250/1 to win it so slightly bigger than the price Eng are to win the Euro's.

wow spooky, ive just typed that out and backed it too. It's a basic math error really, if England are 12/1 to win Euro 2012 then they are saying by being 250/1 for SPOTY that the England captain would then be around 18/1 to win SPOTY. That is obv v v wrong, I don't fancy England at all but at 250/1 they have priced him up on what he has done this season at this point, not what might happen between now and the SPOTY taking place.

obv got laid schrapnel tho.

Yeah that was kinda my point, if England did somehow win then it wouldn't matter what anyone else did every award that could be won by an English footballer would be.

[bobby1]

I'm a backer or Eden Hazard to score more than 5.5 goals for chelsea next year. Available at VC at 8/11 - already backed in from 5/6.

any thoughts?

If he is a Chelsea player next season then 5 1/2 goals looks v light to me.