Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

In on page 500, no tips though.

Every time you Post I wince at the memory of missing those Greyhound Derby tips you put up right at the very start of the event. Oucho.

It was one of those situations where I kept "missing" the price, & so, following good advice (generally) I swerved them.  And you repeated them, at new prices, & I missed those prices too, rinse repeat.

Anyway, the Thread Fund may have missed them, but you did very nicely, & so did a bunch of thread followers, so all good. Mostly.

Next time......

[Simon Galloway]

No probs, although they wouldn't even be aware they were being vetted?

Just thought I'd try and help keep the fund alive long enough for Dean to finish it off work his magic in the NFL season...

[tikay]

No probs, although they wouldn't even be aware they were being vetted?

Just thought I'd try and help keep the fund alive long enough for Dean to finish it off work his magic in the NFL season...

Yes, fair comment Simon. To both sentences....

In truth, the "recommends" DO all get vetted, to a degree, based upon previous performance.

[Doobs]

A bit of a Banzai here.

Power Rock is 150/1 on betfair for the Derby.

He was 3rd in the Ballysax and 2nd in the Derrinstown.

He is probably in as a pacemaker, but looks likely to stay 12 furlongs.  In a weak Derby, with an odds on jolly, then I just have a feeling.  Given Camelot's speed, there is always a reasonable chance he won't stay.

He was clearly pacemaking for Wrote in the Derrinstown, but him and the first pull 7 lengths clear (the first isn't in the Derby).  Wrote went on to finish 4 lengths off the leader in a weak looking Irish 2000.  But Wrote may have killed his chance by going too quick.

His overall form isn't nearly good enough, but there seems a small chance that he is genuinely improving.  He is only 66s with the bookies to deter the each way thieves, so full on proper banzai win only it is.

Anyway the Derrinstown is here.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=793671#topHorseTabs=horse_stories&bottomHorseTabs=horse_entries

Don't go crazy, I have only put £15 on myself.

I have a niggling worry about this bet.  Since last night there has been a couple of periods where the horse has shortened, but then it has been pushed right out again. 

I think there must be a decent chance that we are backing a non runner.  I expect it will still be a big price when we lose the ante post risk (presumably tomorrow). 

So I think we should now hold off until tomorrow.  I can't be bothered laying off for £15.

[TightEnd]

County Cricket time

Five matches this round

LV County Championship - Division One

Durham v Lancashire, Emirates Durham ICG, 11:00
Middlesex v Sussex, Lord's, 11:00
Worcestershire v Somerset, New Road, 11:00

LV County Championship - Division Two
Gloucestershire v Derbyshire, Bristol, 11:00
Yorkshire v Northamptonshire, Headingley Carnegie, 11:00

Two recommended bets


Somerset to beat Worcestershire at 2.04 (Betfair)

Derbyshire to beat Gloucs at 2.14 (Betfair)


Usual caveats on losing the toss

Rationale

League One table

http://www.ecb.co.uk/stats/tables/league-table.html?PcompetitionTable=com.othermedia.ecb.stats.CompetitionTable-L-3025

Somerset are a far stronger team than Worces, and now the weather has turned, pitches are good, batting is easier this matters, a lot

Somerset have Nick Compton, already only 60 runs off 1,000 this season before the end of May and importantly a talented young Spinner in George Dockrell plus the likes of Kieswetter and Buttler.

Worcestershire's depth is seam bowling, which is less effective in clear blue skies.

In essence, Somerset have the resources here to score heavily, and win whether they lose the toss or not

League Two table

http://www.ecb.co.uk/stats/tables/league-table.html?PcompetitionTable=com.othermedia.ecb.stats.CompetitionTable-L-3024

Derbyshire have been appalling for decades, really a function of mismangement, boardroom turmoil. At the end of 2010 then more at the end of 2011, this got resolved. Youngsters coming through also began to get their chance and the results are being shown on the pitch, particularly with the bat where Wes Durston is the top scorer in the division

Gloucs on the other hand have little money, lack of resource and are going nowhere. Their recent attempts to get approval for the redevelopment of the Bristol Ground have been thwarted and the club has an air of defeatism off the field. Players have left at the end of last season, and results so far this haven't been good


I think both Somerset and Derbyshire are odds on to win, on form.

Recommendation is £50 on both Somerset and Derbyshire. Because piutches will be good, our selections might lose the toss and be in the field. I think the disparity in prospects is such that this can be overcome, but suggested stakes are not maximums for this reason.

[tikay]

County Cricket time

Five matches this round

LV County Championship - Division One

Durham v Lancashire, Emirates Durham ICG, 11:00
Middlesex v Sussex, Lord's, 11:00
Worcestershire v Somerset, New Road, 11:00

LV County Championship - Division Two
Gloucestershire v Derbyshire, Bristol, 11:00
Yorkshire v Northamptonshire, Headingley Carnegie, 11:00

Two recommended bets


Somerset to beat Worcestershire at 2.04 (Betfair)

Derbyshire to beat Gloucs at 2.14 (Betfair)


Usual caveats on losing the toss

Rationale

League One table

http://www.ecb.co.uk/stats/tables/league-table.html?PcompetitionTable=com.othermedia.ecb.stats.CompetitionTable-L-3025

Somerset are a far stronger team than Worces, and now the weather has turned, pitches are good, batting is easier this matters, a lot

Somerset have Nick Compton, already only 60 runs off 1,000 this season before the end of May and importantly a talented young Spinner in George Dockrell plus the likes of Kieswetter and Buttler.

Worcestershire's depth is seam bowling, which is less effective in clear blue skies.

In essence, Somerset have the resources here to score heavily, and win whether they lose the toss or not

League Two table

http://www.ecb.co.uk/stats/tables/league-table.html?PcompetitionTable=com.othermedia.ecb.stats.CompetitionTable-L-3024

Derbyshire have been appalling for decades, really a function of mismangement, boardroom turmoil. At the end of 2010 then more at the end of 2011, this got resolved. Youngsters coming through also began to get their chance and the results are being shown on the pitch, particularly with the bat where Wes Durston is the top scorer in the division

Gloucs on the other hand have little money, lack of resource and are going nowhere. Their recent attempts to get approval for the redevelopment of the Bristol Ground have been thwarted and the club has an air of defeatism off the field. Players have left at the end of last season, and results so far this haven't been good


I think both Somerset and Derbyshire are odds on to win, on form.

Recommendation is £50 on both Somerset and Derbyshire. Because piutches will be good, our selections might lose the toss and be in the field. I think the disparity in prospects is such that this can be overcome, but suggested stakes are not maximums for this reason.

Disgraceful analysis, not so much as mention of weather, or a weather map, no Stadium Photos or Geography lesson, no maps, no Standard Deviation graphs, you are hereby bracketed with MANTIS in the Tipping Stakes.

In spite of that, we are ON both bets, though I missed a shade of odds in one of them.

£50 on Somerset @ 2.04, to win £52, with Betfair.

£50 on Derbyshire, @ 2.06, to win £53, with Betfair.

Thanks Rich.

ON

Placed (matched)
Back (Bet For)   Odds   Stake   Profit
Worcestershire v Somerset
SomersetMatch Odds   
2.04   £50.00   £52.00
Bet Ref: 20190849733M Bet matched: 2012-05-30T09:38:50.000Z

_______________


Placed (matched)
Back (Bet For)   Odds   Stake   Profit
Gloucestershire v Derbyshire
DerbyshireMatch Odds   
2.06   £50.00   £53.00
Bet Ref: 20190861585M Bet matched: 2012-05-30T09:40:45.000Z

[tikay]

A bit of a Banzai here.

Power Rock is 150/1 on betfair for the Derby.

He was 3rd in the Ballysax and 2nd in the Derrinstown.

He is probably in as a pacemaker, but looks likely to stay 12 furlongs.  In a weak Derby, with an odds on jolly, then I just have a feeling.  Given Camelot's speed, there is always a reasonable chance he won't stay.

He was clearly pacemaking for Wrote in the Derrinstown, but him and the first pull 7 lengths clear (the first isn't in the Derby).  Wrote went on to finish 4 lengths off the leader in a weak looking Irish 2000.  But Wrote may have killed his chance by going too quick.

His overall form isn't nearly good enough, but there seems a small chance that he is genuinely improving.  He is only 66s with the bookies to deter the each way thieves, so full on proper banzai win only it is.

Anyway the Derrinstown is here.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=793671#topHorseTabs=horse_stories&bottomHorseTabs=horse_entries

Don't go crazy, I have only put £15 on myself.

I have a niggling worry about this bet.  Since last night there has been a couple of periods where the horse has shortened, but then it has been pushed right out again. 

I think there must be a decent chance that we are backing a non runner.  I expect it will still be a big price when we lose the ante post risk (presumably tomorrow). 

So I think we should now hold off until tomorrow.  I can't be bothered laying off for £15.

Just a "niggling" worry about a 66/1 shot? You'll be alright!

I agree, & I don't think we'll lose much by waiting a day. I will be having a tickle, but yes, let's see what develops.  It's daft, but not as daft as it may look. Odds on shots winning the Derby are about as regular as me winning poker flags.

I'd not be at all surprised to see the hotshot turned over, the trouble is by what? And yes, the fave is entitled to be long odds on, it's just that life is never that simple. I backed the favourite in the Derby the year that Snow Kinght won it, I think he was 66/1, too. Bloody Brian Taylor.....

Keep us informed, please.

[FUN4FRASER]

A bit of a Banzai here.

Power Rock is 150/1 on betfair for the Derby.

He was 3rd in the Ballysax and 2nd in the Derrinstown.

He is probably in as a pacemaker, but looks likely to stay 12 furlongs.  In a weak Derby, with an odds on jolly, then I just have a feeling.  Given Camelot's speed, there is always a reasonable chance he won't stay.

He was clearly pacemaking for Wrote in the Derrinstown, but him and the first pull 7 lengths clear (the first isn't in the Derby).  Wrote went on to finish 4 lengths off the leader in a weak looking Irish 2000.  But Wrote may have killed his chance by going too quick.

His overall form isn't nearly good enough, but there seems a small chance that he is genuinely improving.  He is only 66s with the bookies to deter the each way thieves, so full on proper banzai win only it is.

Anyway the Derrinstown is here.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=793671#topHorseTabs=horse_stories&bottomHorseTabs=horse_entries

Don't go crazy, I have only put £15 on myself.

I have a niggling worry about this bet.  Since last night there has been a couple of periods where the horse has shortened, but then it has been pushed right out again.  

I think there must be a decent chance that we are backing a non runner.  I expect it will still be a big price when we lose the ante post risk (presumably tomorrow).  

So I think we should now hold off until tomorrow.  I can't be bothered laying off for £15.

Its shortened because of me I think Doobs  

Bet Status: The following bets were successfully matched Current Odds bets   Order by Matched Date  
  
Tower Rock  140  £32.90  £4,573.10  
Ref: Bet matched:
  
 160  £2.10  £333.90  
Ref: Bet matched:
  
With Camelot being a late arriving horse the pacemaker may just have a chance to hold on

[Horneris]

Put a thread for Euro 2012 fantasy football comp in the Sporting Games board (quite hidden away so thought i'd post here too, sorry Tikay) to see who fancies it.

[tikay]

Put a thread for Euro 2012 fantasy football comp in the Sporting Games board (quite hidden away so thought i'd post here too, sorry Tikay) to see who fancies it.

Thanks Brent, I'll pop across later & have a look.

PS - Come on guys, get in - the thread is here.....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=57942.new#new

[tikay]

And a big hello to Page 500, just 3 months & 3 days after Camel started the thread.

Almost 7,500 Posts, & just shy of 100,000 views, suggesting an average of over 1,000 views per day.

It is now the 6th largest thread by "replies" on blonde.

One of my fav threads on Blonde, the strange this is I hardly ever place a bet yet find this thread so interesting.
Roll on page 1000

It's a very odd thing (to me, anyway) why so many people read it. I never imagined that would be the case, not for a moment. And when it began, I had not had a bet in over 20 years. Now I bet every day, buy the Racing Post (it's shite compared to The Sporting Life), & was even punting gee gees on the Winning Line last night from wonderful Hexham & Ballinrobe.

I think it is because so many people are so helpful, & take so much time to help us. There are no rucks, bad blood, aftertiming, or chirping either, I'm pretty sure that helps. 

Must not forget Mere either, without whom it would not be possible, he's a rock. Cock, too, at times.

[tikay]

Heard positive things about torres in training, but hes just mot performing so thanks. Looks like £10 on Llorente should be a good bet then at around 19s.

Maybe the thread could get on aswel?

OK, as you are new to the thread, it looks decent value, & we are trying to build a little book of value stuff for Euro12 sweats, you have it.

Thanks.

Euro12, Top Goalscorer, Llorente, £10 @ 16/1, BetVictor.


ON

Single Selections
Tournament Top Goalscorer
Fernando Llorente
(Outright)
Odds:  16/1
Stake:  10.00
Possible Return:  170.00

[typhoon13]

Must not forget Mere either, without whom it would not be possible, he's a rock.

+1

[tikay]

Must not forget Mere either, without whom it would not be possible, he's a rock.

+1

You missed a bit off the end......

[typhoon13]

Must not forget Mere either, without whom it would not be possible, he's a rock.

+1

You missed a bit off the end......

I try not to be rude, don't want to upset anybody.

Thats the good thing about this thread, you can have banter and its took in all good fun.