Tips for Tikay

[MereNovice]

Carroll set to start:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/18181790

[FUN4FRASER]

Daily Summary, as @ 0630, Friday June 15th

The slight upturn in our fortunes continued, we made a small profit yesterday, Bobby1's US Open 3 ball (Allen £60 @ 6/4) coasting home easily, so that's a great start, & the £90 return exactly pays for all our US Open outrights. Freeroll ahoy.

That £90 is on a little stable of 8 fancied & not so-fancied picks for the outright win, & we had a pretty decent start.

With the leader @ -4 after he bogeyed 3 of the first 6, yet somehow got home 4 under (surely he will come back to the field?) there are 5 players sharing 2nd with 1 under, & we are on 4 of them! We also have 2 of the 8 players currently on Level Par, 1 on +2, & even our straggler on +4.

We could not have wished for much better, & if a few of them can hang around today (there WILL be a few accidents, the course is brutal), we might just have a great weekend sweat. The cut is currently projected to be @ 6 over. Here's the full book after Day One.

Woods (1 under), £25 @ 10/1, Methuselah.

McDowell (1 under) £10 @ 80/1, hector.

Watney (1 under) £5 @ 139/1, Fraser.

Justin Rose (1 under) £10 @ 28/1, Hawk.

Jim Furyk (E), £5 @ 33/1, hector.

Matt Kuchar (E) £10 @ 28/1, hector

Nick Colsaerts (+2), £5 @ 220/1, hector

Padraig Harrington, (+4), £10 @ 79/1 Methuselah. (Recommended @ 94/1, I botched the bet though).

Way too early to commence an inventory of our poultry, but we at least have a sweat on, so well done putt-pickers, most especially hector who once again got us on a decent sweat.  

The only minor blot on the copybook was an optimistic £10 on Zhang to make the cut, he got a bit caught out @ 9 over, but even he is not quite out of it. Yet.

We had no direct Euro12 "match" interest yesterday but as I was working last night I missed an absolute purler by redarmi who drew attention to a pricing anololy of young Torres, who scored twice.

We are with Croatia (£80 @ 7/4) to qualify from Group C, & it makes my eyes bleed just to try & work out the permutations on that one. We are still in with a shout though.

Elsewhere, in T20, Surrey (Methuselah again) have won 2 from 2, & sit atop of their Group, whilst the Welsh Whatsits (Tighty, £20 @ 33/1) drew a weather blank, so sit in the pack.

In NBA, Miami pulled level @ 1-1, that bet ain't worth much money, but we have had so much fun with it.

Morning..Im not sure if you are aware but youve actually built up a great profile on the US open golf .

Tiger is a general 5-2 shot, Rose at 9-1 and Mr albartoss Watney at 25s  (Tiger and Watney are my main big bets too at 10-1 and 159-1)

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/us-open/winner/all

Also good news is that Englland are going with a 2 man attack against Sweden which means Carroll starts .He is available at 7-1 which is a fair enough price  but Im not suggesting a bet for the thread as we are already  on him for top England goalscorer

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/sweden-v-england/first-goalscorer

Also good news is that Croatia are well placed to go through from Group C ( although there are still a lot of permutations) regardless we have the value at 7-4

[tikay]

Thanks Fraser, & yes, I detailed - almost chirpily - our nice little position on the US golf earllier today, in the Daily Report.

Most pleasing!

If England do well tonight, I'd be quite interested in goal markets on Mr Rooney, in fact. I think he's raring to go, fit, and gagging to play, & might just do well, given the chance.

[tikay]

Tennis.
Aegon Championship.
Dimitrov v Anderson
Tie-break to be played.
Bet365 @ 8/11 (1.72) - worth £55.
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/mens-tour/atp-london-queens-club/grigor-dimitrov-v-kevin-anderson/tie-break-in-match

This can be laid at 1.62 on Betfair.

Due to an appalling lack of women's tennis on Eurosport this week, I have been "forced" into watching blokes play. The Aegon Championship is on grass which favours big servers.

Anderson won 7-6 7-6 yesterday.
Dimitrov won 7-6 6-4.

Both players have impressive serves.

An alternative (and possibly better) bet is > 23.5 games on Betfair @ 1.92. If a set goes to a tie-break this bet has a fair chance of landing in a two set match. If it goes to three sets it's nailed on. It's also better odds.Thoughts please.

Edit: When they met earlier this year Anderson won 2-6 7-6 7-6.

Nicely analysed & spotted, thanks Vince.

We have £54.35 (!) @ 1.92, to win £50, Betfair, >23.5 games.

ON

[Dubai]

I like the 8/11 more and have just backed it- thanks Mere in advance

[MereNovice]

I like the 8/11 more and have just backed it- thanks Mere in advance

Good luck us.

[tikay]

I like the 8/11 more and have just backed it- thanks Mere in advance

Bugger, trust me to pick the wrong one!

Anyway, good luck both of them. May the best man win, & all that.

[Dubai]

Massive related contingency so if one wins both probably should anyway. Give me something to watch this morning amyway

[tikay]

Massive related contingency so if one wins both probably should anyway. Give me something to watch this morning amyway

Dubai confirmed returned to degen.

 

[tikay]

PS - Glad it is "related contigency", I'll be honest, I have to be careful with Fred Money, but I've done the 8/11 one "off-thread".

[FUN4FRASER]

PS - Glad it is "related contigency", I'll be honest, I have to be careful with Fred Money, but I've done the 8/11 one "off-thread".

Whats the Fred money reference ?

[tikay]

PS - Glad it is "related contigency", I'll be honest, I have to be careful with Fred Money, but I've done the 8/11 one "off-thread".

Whats the Fred money reference ?

Thread Money! The Thread Bankroll.

It was me trying to be cool.

FAIL.

I have the Thread Spreadsheet, thus "Thread Money", but I do some stuff myself, which is seperate, of course.

[FUN4FRASER]

PS - Glad it is "related contigency", I'll be honest, I have to be careful with Fred Money, but I've done the 8/11 one "off-thread".

Whats the Fred money reference ?

Thread Money! The Thread Bankroll.

It was me trying to be cool.

FAIL.

I have the Thread Spreadsheet, thus "Thread Money", but I do some stuff myself, which is seperate, of course.

Ahhh..I see   down wiv Da youthff   

[millidonk]

An alternative (and possibly better) bet is > 23.5 games on Betfair @ 1.92. If a set goes to a tie-break this bet has a fair chance of landing in a two set match. If it goes to three sets it's nailed on. It's also better odds.

ON for the lot (Way of the nit)

[TightEnd]

Bookings Sweden/England

Both had 2 booked game 1, this should be a robust game with Carroll up against Scandinavian bearded behemoths, much at stake all round. Both teams are not possession led passing style teams, so this could see more direct confrontations

Referee Damir Skomina will take charge of England's Euro 2012 Group D game against Sweden.

Uefa has confirmed the appointment of Damir Skomina, the Slovenian referee who so infuriated Arsène Wenger as Arsenal bowed out of the Champions League last season, to officiate England's match with Sweden in Kiev on Friday.

Skomina actually took charge of six games involving Premier League clubs in Europe last season, showing 32 yellow cards and one red. That dismissal was for Benfica's Maxi Pereira in the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final against Chelsea, though English teams have suffered red cards at his hand in the recent past.


He refereed Holland v Denmark this week, 4 yellows


The question is which booking market, if we want to be long of "card points" is the most attractive


Paddy Power have time of first booking under 27 minutes at 5/6

BWIN over 3.5 bookings appears priced in at 8/15

BWIN has a red card (one only) at 17/5

Betfair has http://sports.betfair.com/football/market?id=1.105898161

10 points are awarded for a yellow card and 25 points for a red. Two yellow cards leading to an automatic red will score as one yellow and one red card. Maximum 35 points per player. Cards will only count which are shown to players after they take to the pitch for the first time and before they leave the pitch for the final time. This market will be suspended at kick off. All bets apply to 90 minutes of play according to the match officials, plus any stoppage time.

Betfair's own column tips 25-45 points at 2.76 http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/euro-2012-tips/euro2012-day-seven-tips-bet-on-benzema-150612-194.html

"Bookings
There were only two bookings when these two met in a friendly in November. There were three in the World Cup meeting in 2006. England had two bookings in their opener last week, as did Sweden. It'll be a robust, fair, matey affair because the players know each other pretty well. A wager of 25-45 booking points at 2.75 looks shrewd."

Favourite in that market is over 45 points at 1.94

So many of the above factors are anticipated, I suppose

Open to thoughts here, please...about which of these, or other discipline bets, is value