Tips for Tikay

[MereNovice]

Daily Summary, as @ 06:30, Friday June 22nd


We had a winner in the football as Tighty picked out a good price on bookings in the Czech Republic v Portugal match. We had lots of good debate on the various bets available and several would have come through for us but Fred didn't want too much exposure on one game and chose the one bet he fancied most.

The basketball season came to an end as the Miami Heat won the NBA championship and we lost our bet. This bet fluctuated throughout the play-offs but we never really got ahead of the game.

Mahan and Moore struggled in their first rounds of the golf scoring evens and +2 respectively. The leader, David Mathis, is on -6 with a gaggle of golfers on -5 and -4.

In other news, our thread's eponymous hero won a poker tournament in Las Vegas. Congratulations.

[MereNovice]

What's coming up?

We have the second quarter-final of Euro2012: Germany v Greece. We are on Mario Gomez as top competition goal scorer. We may get some more interest in this match.

The golf continues today and we need big performances from our two runners, Mahan and Moore.

In the third cricket ODI we are on the West Indies to beat a weakened England team.

There is a full list of T20 cricket matches with Glamorgan away to Somerset and Surrey away to Essex.

In rugby union there is the final of the U20 World Championship.

In rugby league Hull KR play the Catalan Dragons.

There's some tennis at Eastbourne.

Royal Ascot continues.

[MereNovice]

Euro2012 Finalists Virtual Bet.

I believe that the first thing that needs to happen is for Spain to win their group today. If they come second they would end up with a semi-final against Germany assuming both teams got that far.

The current best odds for this are 1.21 on Betfair so I have invested ten groats on this.

It was a close run thing but we got there when Jesus Navaz scored in the 88th minute for Spain.
We now have 12 groats (after Betfair commission).

The next game for this "accumulator" is on Friday when Germany meet Greece.
Germany are currently 1.17 on Betfair to qualify (also StanJames and Ladbrokes).
I'll wait to see if the odds improve before re-investing my 12 groats.

We have 12 groats on Germany to qualify at 1.17 with Ladbrokes.
The best price now available is 1.14.

[hector62]

Yesterdays debate seemed to be very statistical, so here is my contribution. Kevin Pullein writing in yesterdays Racing Post was asked to recommend a bet for the rest of the Euro 2012's. He stated that in recent times once the European championships reached the knockout stages that 42% of games went to extra time i.e were draws and that this meant that the draw was nearly always over priced.

This fits in with my thinking ( thinking not statistics). My de facto bet when it comes to big football matches between 2 competent teams is to look to back under 2 1/2 goals and sometimes under 1 1/2. For those not aware there is a correlation between the number of goals and the likelihood of a draw i.e the fewer goals the more likely  the match will be drawn. My reasoning is not based on statistics but more of the footballers mentality  being more " they will not pass" than  "ooh lets try and score some goals".

I haven't bet on the match tonight yet, but against any team other than Germany I could fancy Greece to hold out for a draw. But statistics or not the Germans always seem to do what is necessary to go through.

[MereNovice]

A great start to today's "debate".
Thanks.

[MereNovice]

Wimbledon.

SportingBet have Sabine Lisicki @ 200/1 to win Wimbledon.
She has been injured and has lost her last 5 matches.
However, she has a big serve.
She can be laid at 64/1 on Betfair.

If you have the money on Betfair, that seems like a decent arb to me.

I have enquired with SportingBet this morning and this is a genuine price.

[jakally]

I think Hector's bet on the unders, for goals, in the Germany / Greece game feels like a good one.
Just had a quick look, and 31 out of the last 43 Euro/World Cup knock out matches have finished with 2 goals or less.
You could argue that the fact that Germany have clear superiority versus Greece makes goals more likely, but Greece are stubborn, and quite likely to keep it tight, even if they go 1 behind.

Evens or slightly better available on < 2.5 goals.

[ACE2M]

Podolski, Gomez and Muller rested for tonight alledgedly. Crazy if true - might be an opportunity for a bet if you find something quick.


Klose for 1st goalscorer maybe?

[MahoganyVic]

Podolski, Gomez and Muller rested for tonight alledgedly. Crazy if true - might be an opportunity for a bet if you find something quick.


Klose for 1st goalscorer maybe?

Amazing if true!

[redarmi]

I can see the logic for the unders but Germany are a team whose games have a lot of goals.  They average 3.64 goals per game in their last 25 games and have only kept 7 clean sheets in that period.  Greece are lower at 2.12 goals per game in their last 25 games giving an overall average over the last 50 games the two teams have played of 2.88 which suggests there is already a fairly big adjustment in the price.  I agree with the general sentiment about the way the game will be played but goals are also higher when teams are as a big a favourite as germany.  Personally I like Greece +1.5 1.93.  It would be a fairly big bet for me if Karagounis was playing and he is a huge loss.  One factor I think is interesting is that this is a huge revenge spot for Greece in quite an unusual way.  Germany is widely blamed and disliked in Greece for their current financial problems and imposed austerity measures so the Greeks will be massively up for this I think whilst for the Germans they are expected to win and may take this for granted as much as any professionals do.  Also Germany have had to take three flights for their previous group games whilst the Greeks have been 20 miles down the road.  Added to all of that everyone in the world thinks the Germans will win and in those spots in massive games like this with a lot of public money I always default to being a contrarian!!!!

Edit - if they have rested players this becomes a maximum for me.

[redarmi]

Klose is value at 9/2 to score first if he replaces Gomez.  In that situation i think he is probably about a 7/2 shot.

[hector62]

Rugby League  Hull KR v Catalans tonight.

Hull have got their confidence up with 5 wins in their last 6 games and are at home. Just as important is the weather- it's wet and slippy. Not at all what Catalans want as they like to offload the ball and keep it alive. Whilst Catalan are above them in the league they would not be if the league was based over the last 8 weeks. Also Catalan are a team that suffer more than most from playing away.

Recommend £30 Hull KR @ Evs Stan James.

[MereNovice]

Rugby League  Hull KR v Catalans tonight.

Hull have got their confidence up with 5 wins in their last 6 games and are at home. Just as important is the weather- it's wet and slippy. Not at all what Catalans want as they like to offload the ball and keep it alive. Whilst Catalan are above them in the league they would not be if the league was based over the last 8 weeks. Also Catalan are a team that suffer more than most from playing away.

Recommend £30 Hull KR @ Evs Stan James.

Thanks.
I will be going with this unless there is any dissent.

[Horneris]

I don't mind the Hull KR bet and think you should take the evens with Stan James while its still there. (1.92 to back betfair, lack of lay liquidity but is some up at the 2.0 minus commission)

[MereNovice]

Rugby League  Hull KR v Catalans tonight.

Hull have got their confidence up with 5 wins in their last 6 games and are at home. Just as important is the weather- it's wet and slippy. Not at all what Catalans want as they like to offload the ball and keep it alive. Whilst Catalan are above them in the league they would not be if the league was based over the last 8 weeks. Also Catalan are a team that suffer more than most from playing away.

Recommend £30 Hull KR @ Evs Stan James.

On.

hector62   StanJames   RL   Hull KR v Catalans   Hull KR   Evens   £30

   Selection   Price
Hull K R v Catalan Dragons : Match Betting 80 Mins   Hull K R   EVS
Total stake    £30.00
Estimated return    £60.00