Tips for Tikay

[Snowball]

Calling all Scotch lower league types...

Obv the top Premier League scorer will be a Celtic player and it'll probably be Hooper. Will Tony Watt play enough? 16-1 each-way any interest?

Wait till after the tranfer deadline tho I doubt their will be any forwards brought in.
Stokes is out till November so this gives Watt a great chance to get a good run of games under his belt and so far he has looked a great prospect.
He is only 18 but youth is going to get a chance this year.
15 Goals should be enough to get a place.

[hector62]

Dr Noh tearing the course up- level par through 9.

KJ Choi tearing the course up +2 through 8.

Match all square then.

[hector62]

Dr Noh finishes on 7 over. KJ Choi finishes on 9 over.

Winner winner chicken dinner. Never in doubt.

[tikay]

Dr Noh finishes on 7 over. KJ Choi finishes on 9 over.

Winner winner chicken dinner. Never in doubt.

Wow, what a turn-round!

The hector-heater continues.

If you recall, when I placed the bet, I wrote that I wanted to put more on it, but felt that was wrong, as I might damage your Fred ROI. So instead, I had a good bet on my own account.  

Excellllllent!

[Karabiner]

Dr Noh finishes on 7 over. KJ Choi finishes on 9 over.

Winner winner chicken dinner. Never in doubt.

That must some strong mofo karma if it made KJ shoot 80-75 to finish.

Nice work.

[hector62]

It is very strong karma, but not strong enough I fear to get Bubba Watson into the winners enclosure.

[Longy]

Mr Rodriguez finished 2nd today to lengthen his lead to 53 secs over Froome. This really is 4 horse race now between these 2, Contador and Valverde.

The time trial which is Rodriguez weakness and Froome's (maybe Contador) strength is coming up on Wednesday. I would expect Froome to take the lead in that stage and then Rodriguez will have to work his way back on the following mountain stages.

All very much in the balance and is making for a very interesting Vuelta.

[tikay]

Mr Rodriguez finished 2nd today to lengthen his lead to 53 secs over Froome. This really is 4 horse race now between these 2, Contador and Valverde.

The time trial which is Rodriguez weakness and Froome's (maybe Contador) strength is coming up on Wednesday. I would expect Froome to take the lead in that stage and then Rodriguez will have to work his way back on the following mountain stages.

All very much in the balance and is making for a very interesting Vuelta.

Thanks Mark.

A 53 second lead is pretty insignificant at this stage in such a race, presumably?

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0750, Monday August 27th

PROFIT on Month £576.00

Unsettled Bets  - £272.50

The spreadsheet is here...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&pli=1#gid=11

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0800, Monday August 27th

We somehow turned a small profit - £10 - yesterday.

An unusually quiet day for Fred, & we placed no new bets.

6 aged bets completed, 5 were losers, 1 was a winner.

The 2nd of our two "Win their first 6 Premiership Games" bets, this one on Man City, fell at Leg 2, for a £10 loss. The other one, on Man Utd, fell at the first last week.

We had 4 bets running on the Barclays Golf, being a fiver each on Bubba Watson, Bill Haas, & Graeme McDowell, all of which lost, + £20 on Dr Noh @ 7/4 to be "Top Korean", which somehow got home, after being pretty much dead & buried after Day Two.

That returned a £35 profit, minus the 4 losers, & so we end up with an unlikely £10 profit on the day, & we got through the bet-heavy weekend without sustaining damage.

hector made us £160 profit this weekend (he gave us a £140 winner on Saturday) - great stuff!

In Cycling, our man has a 53 second lead over Froome, & a 1 minute lead over Contador.

 http://www.lavuelta.com/

Not Fred related, but many congrats to Paul Lawrie, who crushed the Johnnie Walker Golf Tourney @ Gleneagles. We are delighted for him.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[hector62]

Morning Mr Tikay.

I would like to respond to your claim that my Dr Noh bet size was a bit nitty. I am not going to disagree with you at all but let me tell you a bit about how my mind works. To me the bankroll is not the 2 or 3 grand that you started with. In my mind the bankroll is the profit that I have made and it is that which I take into account for bet sizing. I may even go so far as to say that I even think of the profit I have made as my money ! I am not concerned too much with ROI as no one can see that (unless you break the spreadsheet again and I can have another fascinating look at individual performances).

After that last 2 weeks profits however I think that I may be able to increase the bet size if I think it warrants it. I should add that when I put up a bet and it loses then it really upsets me, unduly so. In the past I have even had to stay away from the thread for a day if I had a losing bet. So when I put an amount to bet I am taking into account what I think I can lose without me having to  stop reading the thread should it do so.

I get a massive amount of pleasure from each recommendation that wins and I hope people have backed them too. When you said that you had a decent bet on Dr Noh it did concern me. Not because you may be betting beyond your means, but because of knowing the effect this information may have on my future selections. If I knew that people were having large bets on my recommendations then I would have a tendency to err towards favourites and short prices, avoiding the real value bets which is where the profit is to be made. By all means bet what you like on my selections but if you could just say "had a small dabble" or "slight interest" it would make me sleep more easily. If people want to post pictures of celebratory cakes after the event then that of course would be fine.

To Mr Karabiner, who I sense may be a karma disbeliever. I had my largest ever bet this weekend on Rory to beat Tiger over 72 holes. With Rory in the clubhouse on -1, Tiger was on the 10th at -5. There followed two 6's and a few more bogeys to land the spoils in amazing fashion. If only the karma gods had worked on Bubba Watson then I too may have become a true believer !

[tikay]

What's coming up?

Not much today, in what is the final "Summer" Bank Holiday, before we get down to Football & NFL winter schedules.

Cycling, the Vuelta a Espana, continues on ITV4.

Elite Speedway is on Sky Sports this evening.

ECB40 Cricket - sort of halfway between T20 & real cricket - is Kent Spitfires v Sussex Sharks today.

The betting suggests any of two.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/domestic/cb40-league/kent-v-sussex/winner

...and the sub-markets are here.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/domestic/cb40-league/kent-v-sussex/betting-markets

The only televised Live Football today is the Spanish encounter between Atletico Madrid & Athletic Bilbao @ 9pm.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/european-football/spain/la-liga-primera/atletico-madrid-v-athl-bilbao/winner


All of which clears the decks for saturation coverage, beginning today, for the US Open Tennis.

Our only interest at present is in Venus Williams @ 69/1 for the Women's Title, though I believe we have one eye on trading opportunities.

The full US Open Ladies market is here....

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/womens-us-open/winner

Numerous matches will be televised on Sky Sports today via the Red Button thingie.

In the Mens Tennis, again, lots of matches televised Live today. In the Outright market, Mr A Murray is as short as 100/30.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/mens-us-open/winner

The US Open Tennis comes, I assume, from Flushing Meadow, which I guess is the American equivelant of Wimbledon. I seem to recall it is right under the flight path of a nearby Airport, JFK perhaps, so TV viewers can play the ever popular "Identify the aeroplane by its engine note". 

Looks like a wonderful place to play, must be said.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Good morning hector.

Quite a lot of stuff in there to comment upon, I'll try & break it into parts.

The first paragraph....

"too nitty".

No no no - I LOVE Nitty!

Consider it a compliment.

Everyone should consider that it is THEIR own Bankroll, & size their recommended bets accordingly. One of your assets, to my mind, is that you bet sensible amounts. That makes them easier to accept. When someone says "I fancy so & so, £100 @ 7/4", it's not really ideal.

Keeping our Bankroll Discipline is crucial, & we've done so successfully for 7 months now, AND turned a small profit.

These "little" bets keep us ticking over nicely, whilst we await the extremely rare Maximum Bets, which will rarely be more than 2 or 3 per month. The original idea of the thread was to just bet "special" opportunities, but by including these smaller bets, it keeps us all interested, & helps to maintain our profit margin, & interest, during quiet periods.

unless you break the spreadsheet again and I can have another fascinating look at individual performances

Whoops, I never realised that had ever happened. A feature of the thread is that (almost) nobody makes "aftertiming" comments, dissing bad bets, except constructively, & once a bet is on, thats it, no regrets.

I don't EVER want that we publish everyone's ROI, as it would be embarrassing for some, & would achieve nothing positive, & cause unnecessary embarrassment. We do sometimes give a mention to the Top 4 or 5 ROI's at each Month end though.

Those who just give us big priced Golf bets, for example, need a longer term view to overcome variance, so publishing their short-term stats would be wrong. I want that they keep giving us 50/1 & 100/1 golf "darts", & we can afford to wait. They only need to bink once a year or whatever.

[tikay]

After that last 2 weeks profits however I think that I may be able to increase the bet size if I think it warrants it

Entirely up to you.

Given your record, & the way you think through your bets carefully & selectively, it's likely that we would still accept them blind. And if you have a bad run, then we'd need to cut them back.

But knowing you, I think you'd cut back anyway if you had a lean run.

It is very odd that I end up, in many cases, being the one who decides if a bet should be placed. It's my money of course, so yes I get last shout.

But....I do not know enough about hardly ANY sport to be able to make a judgement. So, if the bet is big, I have to seek advice of those who know better, but, from my perspective, often it comes down to MY judgement based on the "tipsters" past record in the Thread. If a chap is losing a lot, I can see that from the numbers, & it naturally sways my decision.

I'm very old school in this respect. I'd always rather start small, prove I can do it, then up the stakes, rather than starting too big. That was my philosophy in business - earn the money FIRST, then invest the rewards, rather than borrow money & invest it hoping I could make it pay, which I consider to be an unhealthy short-cut.

I'm the same in poker, too. I would not dream of seeking staking for a Tourney I could not afford. The poker logic of being staked to overcome variance is fine & dandy, but the player needs to have shown some ability at that level first imo. I have no problem with others doing it, but it's not for me.

Those new to the thread often get their first bet nodded through, as long as it is small, as I want to encourage more to get involved.

[Simon Galloway]

, & size there recommended bets accordingly.

Gawd blimey, edit this before Mere gets up...These ipads make it so tricky.