blonde poker forum
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
July 27, 2025, 04:56:35 PM

Login with username, password and session length
Search:     Advanced search
2262521 Posts in 66609 Topics by 16991 Members
Latest Member: nolankerwin
* Home Help Arcade Search Calendar Guidelines Login Register
+  blonde poker forum
|-+  Community Forums
| |-+  Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
| | |-+  Tips for Tikay
0 Members and 36 Guests are viewing this topic. « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 938 939 940 941 [942] 943 944 945 946 ... 9209 Go Down Print
Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16527699 times)
FUN4FRASER
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2249



View Profile
« Reply #14115 on: August 29, 2012, 09:32:48 AM »

Just in case you missed this from yesterday...

Two weeks of the premiership season gone and already some interesting developments

The very first week I watched  2 games in full( and all the highlights and match reports of the others) The first match was West Ham against Aston Villa and although West Ham sneaked through with a 1-0 win to me both sides looked absolutely dreadful with little or no goal threat and their defences all over the place .

The second was QPR v Swansea .... Swansea prevailed 5-0 away from home but this doesnt show the complete story as after they went 1 -0 up QPR applied serious pressure and where unlucky on a few attempts not to level however they eventually got caught on the break ( 4 times.) Swansea did look a well organised outfit that are going to score goals but I can also see them looking vulnerable against better teams so might be worth opposing...QPR with their new signings and money will probably do enough but look average.

So to the second weekend...based on what Id seen above I recomended opposing West Ham with the confident Swansea and they duly obliged beating The Hammers 3-0. I knew Villa had played terrible against West Ham in the first match but couldnt recomend Everton as a bet because historically Everton have struggled with any consistency. What I wasnt prepared for is how good Everton were against an abject Villa side .If anybody gets chance to watch that game in full they will see an onslaught to Villas goal by Everton and no resistance at all.The goal Villa did score was a swerving 25 yard effort  but the final score could quite easily of been 8 -1

As Rich Suggested Villa had a championship side out last week

    01 Given
    04 Vlaar
    06 Clark
    32 Baker
    34 Lowton
    08 El Ahmadi
    10 N'Zogbia
    25 Bannan
    31 Herd
    09 Bent
    23 Delfouneso

So the coming weekend...I could make a case for Fulham away at West Ham or Everton to beat West Brom but the stand out bet has to be Newcastle to beat Villa at 4-6 at Stan James or Betfair

Newcastle beat Spurs on the first day of the season and went down with a fight to an in form Chelsea, so with a fanatical 60000 Geordie home support and the very strong strike force of Ba ,Cisse and Ben Arthur they will make mincemeat of a very poor Villa side .

I make Newcastle at least a 1 - 2 shot and know this price will shorten between now and  kick off on Sunday, so recomend getting on as soon as possible.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/newcastle-v-aston-villa/winner

Logged
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #14116 on: August 29, 2012, 09:44:59 AM »


Whats coming up?

Think today will be the lull after the storm.

The Cycling, & US Open Tennis both continue.

In televised football, Celtic v Helsinborg, in what looks almost a dead rubber. They go Celtic 1/2, Helsi 6/1, 3/1 the draw.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/celtic-v-helsingborg/winner

The League Cup has just one game tonight, (not televised) Everton at home to Leyton Orient, which at first sight, does not appeal even in the flying ant category. However, after seeing the prices, I'm not so sure. Everton 1/5, the Draw 6/1, & Orient an astonishing 16/1.....!

 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/everton-v-leyton-orient/winner

16/1 is ridiculous, I mean, Everton would win that 9 times out of 10.......

There is one corking game on TV tonight though, if you don't mind staying up late - Barcelona v Real Madrid, in the Super Cup, whatever that is.

Oooohhhhhh

The betting is very close on this, Barca 6/4, Real @ 9/5, & the draw @ 5/2.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/european-football/spain/super-cup/real-madrid-v-barcelona/winner


 Click to see full-size image.



 Click to see full-size image.






Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #14117 on: August 29, 2012, 09:50:08 AM »

Just in case you missed this from yesterday...

Two weeks of the premiership season gone and already some interesting developments

The very first week I watched  2 games in full( and all the highlights and match reports of the others) The first match was West Ham against Aston Villa and although West Ham sneaked through with a 1-0 win to me both sides looked absolutely dreadful with little or no goal threat and their defences all over the place .

The second was QPR v Swansea .... Swansea prevailed 5-0 away from home but this doesnt show the complete story as after they went 1 -0 up QPR applied serious pressure and where unlucky on a few attempts not to level however they eventually got caught on the break ( 4 times.) Swansea did look a well organised outfit that are going to score goals but I can also see them looking vulnerable against better teams so might be worth opposing...QPR with their new signings and money will probably do enough but look average.

So to the second weekend...based on what Id seen above I recomended opposing West Ham with the confident Swansea and they duly obliged beating The Hammers 3-0. I knew Villa had played terrible against West Ham in the first match but couldnt recomend Everton as a bet because historically Everton have struggled with any consistency. What I wasnt prepared for is how good Everton were against an abject Villa side .If anybody gets chance to watch that game in full they will see an onslaught to Villas goal by Everton and no resistance at all.The goal Villa did score was a swerving 25 yard effort  but the final score could quite easily of been 8 -1

As Rich Suggested Villa had a championship side out last week

    01 Given
    04 Vlaar
    06 Clark
    32 Baker
    34 Lowton
    08 El Ahmadi
    10 N'Zogbia
    25 Bannan
    31 Herd
    09 Bent
    23 Delfouneso

So the coming weekend...I could make a case for Fulham away at West Ham or Everton to beat West Brom but the stand out bet has to be Newcastle to beat Villa at 4-6 at Stan James or Betfair

Newcastle beat Spurs on the first day of the season and went down with a fight to an in form Chelsea, so with a fanatical 60000 Geordie home support and the very strong strike force of Ba ,Cisse and Ben Arthur they will make mincemeat of a very poor Villa side .

I make Newcastle at least a 1 - 2 shot and know this price will shorten between now and  kick off on Sunday, so recomend getting on as soon as possible.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/newcastle-v-aston-villa/winner



Thanks Fraser.

No, I never missed it - as I posted yesterday, we were very busy with lots of action, so I decided to set it aside until today, when things had calmed down.

I have some other stiff to action today, too, including Henry Fonda MajorMajor's tip.


Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #14118 on: August 29, 2012, 10:10:34 AM »

Fraser's Tip - Newcastle to beat Vila, @ 4/6, with the reasoning as per his Posts.

I'm quite inclined to go with this, as it looks decent value to me.

I need some views on it though as to...

a) Whether we should?

b) How much?

Was thinking of £60, but open to views.
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #14119 on: August 29, 2012, 10:13:02 AM »

Can't see any reason to disagree on this one. All seems logical. Lambert I suppose will turn Villa round, but looks to be a heck of a task with the squad he has and current injuries

Logged

My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #14120 on: August 29, 2012, 10:19:47 AM »

I'd like to offer up a golf tip on the Omega European Masters which starts on Thursday. Brandon Grace has won 3 times on tour this year. Only 2 players have won 3 tournaments (european tour) in a single season at a younger age. He really has clicked this year!
"he must be quite a short price then?" I hear you ask. Well.... You can get 50s at quite a few firms and I suggest 10squid each way.   

Done, thanks.

I see no reason why we should not sling a score at this. We don't expect 50/1 shots to win, of course, but we have to spec to acc.

Brandon Grace, Omega Masters, £10 EW @ 50/1, quarter odds 1,2,3,4,5.

ON

Single: Grace, Branden @ 50/1
2 lines at £10.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential returns: £645.00
No: O/23146337/0000099

 
Total stake: £20.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £20.00
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
claypole
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 4086


View Profile
« Reply #14121 on: August 29, 2012, 10:21:47 AM »

I whole heartedly agree with Frasers analysis and make Newcastle my best bet at the weekend in Premiership.  I am a Newcastle fan, my only concern is what the transfer window throws up - I make us 1/2 or maybe even nearer 4/9 shots as we stand, although there is a chance a Tiote, Cabaye exist Friday night well have an effect - both in terms of the direct exit and also overall morale.  However, on balance we have held onto them so far so I still think a clear bet at 4/6
Logged
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #14122 on: August 29, 2012, 10:24:19 AM »

I whole heartedly agree with Frasers analysis and make Newcastle my best bet at the weekend in Premiership.  I am a Newcastle fan, my only concern is what the transfer window throws up - I make us 1/2 or maybe even nearer 4/9 shots as we stand, although there is a chance a Tiote, Cabaye exist Friday night well have an effect - both in terms of the direct exit and also overall morale.  However, on balance we have held onto them so far so I still think a clear bet at 4/6

Homer!

PS - So if you were me, how much would you stake on this good thing?......
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
claypole
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 4086


View Profile
« Reply #14123 on: August 29, 2012, 10:27:36 AM »

I think £60 to win £40 is about right - mind you my record on this thread is shocking 0/2.....although Mere missed my 11/4 QPR Top London Clunb Group B (v west Ham and Fulham) which I just so so wish you were on now.

DTD Thursday?
Logged
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #14124 on: August 29, 2012, 10:32:21 AM »

I think £60 to win £40 is about right - mind you my record on this thread is shocking 0/2.....although Mere missed my 11/4 QPR Top London Clunb Group B (v west Ham and Fulham) which I just so so wish you were on now.

DTD Thursday?

DTD Thursday? Probably not. Balance - schmalance.....

Will be there NEXT weekend though, for the Sky Poker Tour Grand Final. You had better be, too......
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
Chompy
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 11503


Expert


View Profile
« Reply #14125 on: August 29, 2012, 10:36:43 AM »

Boydy and Taylor are leaving the mighty Posh for Ipswich. End of an era for us. Ipswich will be picking up soon and will score a lot of goals imo.

Rec £10 on Taylor to be top Championship scorer @ 100-1 with Stanley James
« Last Edit: August 29, 2012, 10:43:36 AM by Chompy » Logged

"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
FUN4FRASER
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2249



View Profile
« Reply #14126 on: August 29, 2012, 10:39:51 AM »

Really like this Newcastle betTony..I know you dont do biggish anymore but I think £120 is good if not then £90 as a minimum... as its definite value

Hope to see you at DTD over the weekend
Logged
claypole
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 4086


View Profile
« Reply #14127 on: August 29, 2012, 11:02:56 AM »

I think £60 to win £40 is about right - mind you my record on this thread is shocking 0/2.....although Mere missed my 11/4 QPR Top London Clunb Group B (v west Ham and Fulham) which I just so so wish you were on now.

DTD Thursday?

DTD Thursday? Probably not. Balance - schmalance.....

Will be there NEXT weekend though, for the Sky Poker Tour Grand Final. You had better be, too......

I'll send you a PM on that.....v v embarrasing Wink
Logged
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #14128 on: August 29, 2012, 11:40:34 AM »

Really like this Newcastle betTony..I know you dont do biggish anymore but I think £120 is good if not then £90 as a minimum... as its definite value

Hope to see you at DTD over the weekend

That's not quite correct, Fraser.

Our Max has ALWAYS been 5% of our Bankroll, which is currently a notional £3,000, so our Max is £150, & has been for 5 months now.

We don't bet the Max very often though - on average, twice per month, but only 1 in the last 3 months that I can recall. (1 in August, none in July or June, 3 in May).

This is ONLY because there have been no "Max" opportunities.

However, IF the bet is worthy of a Max, we will bet the Max, but very few are. We really do save Max's for extra special opportunities, & these need strong support from those who bet for a living.

Those who follow Fred, of course, can (& do) bet what they want, but I have to be responsible with the 'Roll. You know me, I'm a nit......

I shall not be at DTD this weekend, but I will be there NEXT weekend, for the Sky Pok...oh wait, I did that spam already.
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #14129 on: August 29, 2012, 12:23:58 PM »

Horse Racing.

I think I need some help with this.

Ranked by number of bets placed, it is our third busiest sport.

Only Football (193 bets, ROI +10%) & Golf (83 bets, negative ROI 4.5%) have more bets. I’m not fussed by the Golf number, because by it’s nature, we do 3 or 4 “darts” at a time, & the variance in 50/1 & 100/1 shots means we only want one to big bink to be profitable. They are good fun & value, too, giving us frequent 4 day sweats, & for that, I think a £116 loss is quite acceptable - one winner will drown that loss. 

In Horse Racing, we have placed 55 bets, & have a negative ROI of 11.78%, being a £272 loss. Those 55 bets have come from around 9 different people, so this is NOT a dig at any individual.

If we ignore horseracing bets designed as lay opportunities (where we have done OK I think, especially considering my ignorance of trading), our last Horse Racing winner was on Danedream,  no less than 6 weeks ago, which came in at a lovely 10/1.  Since then we have punted 7 losers on the bounce. I don't know the average price, but I'd guess 3/1 or 4/1.

Is this just normal variance? If so, should we continue, & wait for variance to turn in our favour? You know, of course, that I don’t know enough about the game these days to make reasoned judgements on horse tips, I need to rely on thread comment & feedback.

Is the answer to make MORE bets, less bets, or just carry on as we are?

And in case anyone wants to get defensive, don’t. It’s good practice, imo, in gambling, as in business, where I did this all the time, to concentrate on what is losing money, & leave profitable stuff to look after itself. 

Any thoughts?
« Last Edit: August 29, 2012, 12:33:48 PM by tikay » Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
Pages: 1 ... 938 939 940 941 [942] 943 944 945 946 ... 9209 Go Up Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.334 seconds with 20 queries.