Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

The BadBeat Model is far and away the most sensible way forward for genuine bets. If Fred wants "cheeky" (that's for the Ar$£nal comment!) bets for a bit of fun, that's good too IMO but it should be done in the knowledge that it is placed for that reason.

Bigger bets should reflect Fred's confidence that he is "beating the odds". That makes sense even to a rank amateur such as like what I is.

in terms of Premiership football, one of the most researched and pored over betting markets in the world, with almost perfect information all in the public domain all the time (no team news ricks to be found etc)

can we ever "beat the odds"? these odds compilers can price pretty much perfectly, yes?

[Tal]

The BadBeat Model is far and away the most sensible way forward for genuine bets. If Fred wants "cheeky" (that's for the Ar$£nal comment!) bets for a bit of fun, that's good too IMO but it should be done in the knowledge that it is placed for that reason.

Bigger bets should reflect Fred's confidence that he is "beating the odds". That makes sense even to a rank amateur such as like what I is.

in terms of Premiership football, one of the most researched and pored over betting markets in the world, with almost perfect information all in the public domain all the time (no team news ricks to be found etc)

can we ever "beat the odds"? these odds compilers can price pretty much perfectly, yes?

Not many £150 bets on the Prem then! Has to be room for the odd "here's a bit of fun" bet, or if there's a paddy power-type offer like that phone-in bet the other day.

Still my (second...) favourite thread on blonde.

[Longy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00z8v18

Not currently scheduled for a rerun but this was an amazing insight into 1960's and 1970's Grand Prix racing "Grand Prix: The Killer Years"

Thanks Simon, I'll enjoy that later tonight. The Golden Years of F1, but oh my, so tragically dangerous.

This is one the best sports documentaries I have seen. In truth I am not an F1 fan (watched it as a youngster, but with the wealth of sport on now would rather watch many other sports) but this was facsinating and truly shocking at times.

[Chompy]

wins like a good thing

well done chompy

Yuh, was pretty sure that was always gonna bolt up. Pretty stdd tbh. I blame Dettori for not steering the other one home as expected.

[millidonk]

Nice swerve by Fred on Copenhagen.

[horseplayer]

wins like a good thing

well done chompy

Yuh, was pretty sure that was always gonna bolt up. Pretty stdd tbh. I blame Dettori for not steering the other one home as expected.

looked like it hadnt had the juice like most others have had from that stable recently

[redarmi]

The BadBeat Model is far and away the most sensible way forward for genuine bets. If Fred wants "cheeky" (that's for the Ar$£nal comment!) bets for a bit of fun, that's good too IMO but it should be done in the knowledge that it is placed for that reason.

Bigger bets should reflect Fred's confidence that he is "beating the odds". That makes sense even to a rank amateur such as like what I is.

in terms of Premiership football, one of the most researched and pored over betting markets in the world, with almost perfect information all in the public domain all the time (no team news ricks to be found etc)

can we ever "beat the odds"? these odds compilers can price pretty much perfectly, yes?

To be fair I have always been able to beat it and I am sure there are others that do to but it has to be on the basis that the market is doing something wrong or inefficiently.   There is definitely an argument that Newcastle don't get enough credit and are consistently overpriced but if that is the case we should be backing them every week and generally if you are going to ride these bandwagons you should be doing it in the season it starts rather than the season after they nearly reach the Champs League.  Think the fun bets point Tal made is a decent one but surely the banzais are the fun bets rather than 4/6 shots in the Premiership.  All that said I am not suggesting this isn't a bet but I can't see how it is a 1/2 shot genuinely.

[tikay]

Nice swerve by Fred on Copenhagen.

Completely forgot it Milly. Just as well as it turned out. Unlucky mate.

Think we save more by our swerves than we make with our winners. Same as my poker, it's good to pass.....

[rfgqqabc]

I don't have a massive view either way on the Newcastle bet but we all know Newcastle are good and we all know Villa are bad and have problems.  I don't really understand what we are seeing here to make it a bet that isn't in plain view for the odds compilers. If anything the fact that Newcastle might lose a couple of players before tomorrow night would tip it the other way.  If we hark back into the thread to Neil Channings really good post about the criteria something needs to pass to be a bet then the only thing it could pass on is that we are pricing more accurately than the odds compilers and that is always the worst of the criteria as it is so subjective.

The most efficient markets are in Asia/betfair. Hence why teams move so drastically despite the level of pricing accuracy here. 

[Josedinho]

Disagree with the view that Newcastle put up any sort of a fight against Chelsea. They looked pretty rubbish imo but they were impressive against spurs. Agree with red. They are the better team. We know they are pretty good, we know villa are pretty bad. Loads of people will have them on their coupon but I don't think it's value.

[The Camel]

Disagree with the view that Newcastle put up any sort of a fight against Chelsea. They looked pretty rubbish imo but they were impressive against spurs. Agree with red. They are the better team. We know they are pretty good, we know villa are pretty bad. Loads of people will have them on their coupon but I don't think it's value.

This.

If it gets any shorter, I'll be laying the Toon.

[bobby1]

How do you see  Ipswich at 6/5 v Huddersfiled guys with Rhodes joining Blackburn?

[redarmi]

I don't have a massive view either way on the Newcastle bet but we all know Newcastle are good and we all know Villa are bad and have problems.  I don't really understand what we are seeing here to make it a bet that isn't in plain view for the odds compilers. If anything the fact that Newcastle might lose a couple of players before tomorrow night would tip it the other way.  If we hark back into the thread to Neil Channings really good post about the criteria something needs to pass to be a bet then the only thing it could pass on is that we are pricing more accurately than the odds compilers and that is always the worst of the criteria as it is so subjective.

The most efficient markets are in Asia/betfair. Hence why teams move so drastically despite the level of pricing accuracy here. 

Not really sure I understand you point.  There is no doubt that markets moving in Asia affects the price in the UK and everywhere else although almost certainly not as much as it should but I wouldn't say that pricing in the UK is that accurate all told but they have an inbuilt margin which is hard to beat without one of the advantages we talked about.  

[rfgqqabc]

I don't have a massive view either way on the Newcastle bet but we all know Newcastle are good and we all know Villa are bad and have problems.  I don't really understand what we are seeing here to make it a bet that isn't in plain view for the odds compilers. If anything the fact that Newcastle might lose a couple of players before tomorrow night would tip it the other way.  If we hark back into the thread to Neil Channings really good post about the criteria something needs to pass to be a bet then the only thing it could pass on is that we are pricing more accurately than the odds compilers and that is always the worst of the criteria as it is so subjective.

The most efficient markets are in Asia/betfair. Hence why teams move so drastically despite the level of pricing accuracy here. 

Not really sure I understand you point.  There is no doubt that markets moving in Asia affects the price in the UK and everywhere else although almost certainly not as much as it should but I wouldn't say that pricing in the UK is that accurate all told but they have an inbuilt margin which is hard to beat without one of the advantages we talked about.  

Just arguing the point that the odds compilers here are efficient enough in prem football to make it unbeatable. Wouldn't be my area of specialisation though. Definitely some value about. The margins make a lot of markets really tough to beat. Certain teams have had bias in the market for years, these bias hang around until the market discovers them. I think Newcastle will be massively overrated this year in general, and expect Liverpool to be underrated.

My point was super brief before, just pointing out Asia/BF > our odds compilers in terms of accuracy and true price.

[aaron1867]

How do you see  Ipswich at 6/5 v Huddersfiled guys with Rhodes joining Blackburn?

The game is on Saturday? I would expect Huddersfield making some movement in the transfer market before then.