Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

line changed just as I tried to get on, terrible life

hmmmm I just went back on to find my bet still in a popup box at 16!  Was sure it was accepted.


ignore that it appears to gave been accepted - dunno what the popup box was as all the money on the account is on the bet.

[horseplayer]

Bet suggestion

ALBASPINA 5.00 FOLKESTONE 4-1


i think it's the best handicapped horse by miles, is value i expected 2-1

the ground is my only worry but at 4-1 its a worry i can have

selkirks do better on the turf and hardly ever win on debut, ever since she did i have expected her to develop into a group 3 horse and i still do

My afternoon allotment tending saved us there, I would have gone with that Falcoa Man.

Fred has swerved like God today.

sure is looking like a group 3 horse

maybe a class 3!

[doubleup]

Bet suggestion

ALBASPINA 5.00 FOLKESTONE 4-1


i think it's the best handicapped horse by miles, is value i expected 2-1

the ground is my only worry but at 4-1 its a worry i can have

selkirks do better on the turf and hardly ever win on debut, ever since she did i have expected her to develop into a group 3 horse and i still do

My afternoon allotment tending saved us there, I would have gone with that Falcoa Man.

Fred has swerved like God today.

sure is looking like a group 3 horse

maybe a class 3!

It had the colours of Alborada one of my fav horses from the past.  I backed at the Curragh when over for the Irish Derby weekend and followed it after that.

[horseplayer]

yes some famous colours

a friend who i passed the tip onto suggested to me the owner was laying the horse and hence the drift

i very much doubt the owner uses betfair and/or needs the money!

[scotty2hatty]

line changed just as I tried to get on, terrible life

Ahh, they rumbled Fred.

Saw your Post earlier about the Irish Greyhound Derby. Don't worry, we'll get 'em next time.

Hope so. A few others from the thread must have got on too judging by the reaction/what I heard. That'll have been why WH took Sawpit down for a spell. Would have been nice to have it played out, regardless whether or not the dog was good enough.

[LeKnave]

well done team, we've wiped it off the board.

[bobby1]

line changed just as I tried to get on, terrible life

Ahh, they rumbled Fred.

Saw your Post earlier about the Irish Greyhound Derby. Don't worry, we'll get 'em next time.

I'm not sure how much you follow the NFL Tony but if the line should be around 16 or 16 1/2 then by taking the 18 1/2 you are getting the right side of 17 which is a big number in a game scored mainly in 7's and 3's. so 16 1/2 and say 17 1/2 is only a point different but the gap is much bigger than a single point sounds.

That's why hcaps the right side of the 3's and 7's are so valuable too.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0645, Monday September 3rd

LOSS on Month £12.00

Unsettled Bets  - £414.50

The spreadsheet is here...


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=12

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0800, Monday September 3rd

We made a profit of £103 yesterday, reducing our September loss from £115 to just £12.

Three new bets placed yesterday which completed all won - RVP to score, (£46 profit), Unders in the Liverpool - Arsenal game (£50 profit), & the Button Spa win (£42 profit).

The Button win was a clever piece of thinking by Doobs, who reacted quickly to changed circumstances, & the bet more than covered the Raikkonen loss, so we made a profit on a F1 day - a first for Fred.

Two aged bets completed, both lost. Brandon Grace failed to score for us in the Omega (loss £20), & Raikonnen lost (15), but we covered that with the Button bet.

Bets still running?

The cycling continues, & our chap continues to dictate matters in a most satisfactory manner.

He is 22 seconds ahead of Contador, with Froome now 2 minutes & 16 seconds adrift, seemingly a spent force.

To get this in context, look at the betting market, which has now flip-flopped completely.....

Rodriguez - 8/15

Contador - 13/8

Froome - 150/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/winner


We have a tenner @ 14/1. Valooooooooooo.

In Golf, we have a teeny-weeny squeak with both Snedeker & Dufner, but both are 10 shots adrift. However, that £10 loss is likely to be well covered by our “Top Korean” bet, £32 @ 15/8. We only have one oppo left, Sang-Moon, who shot 6 over yesterday, to end 5 over. Just as well, as Dr Noh had a bad day too, 4 over, to end up 5 under. So, we take a 10 shot lead into the final day, today.

We placed two new bets yesterday, both identical, being on NFL. We have only made 2 previous  bets on NFL, but we did very well on those, & we are in profit on NFL so far. I'm hopeful that we can do well on NFL, there seems to be quite a depth of knowledge about NFL on blonde, & we need a back-up to Football. We might even get a Flushy Tip......

The 2 new bets were both on “under 18.5 points” for  Miami Dolphins next Sunday.  The price was evidently an error, & the market has now changed the line to 16 & 17. Great spot by ChipRich.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/miami-dolphins-at-houston-texans/total-miami-dolphins-points

Quite a difficult day yesterday, & we did very well to swerve plenty of losers. We probably make more money by missing losers than most realise. Nittiness is an art form.

Some grand memories yesterday, too, both on & off Fred……


 

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[Tal]

Are the NFL bets likely to be larger punts on single games or small bets on accumulators?

[scotty2hatty]

Are the NFL bets likely to be larger punts on single games or small bets on accumulators?

Tikay is not a huge fan of multiples.

[Horneris]

Does this thread have Bwin?

[tikay]

Does this thread have Bwin?

Yup.

For geeks itt, we have placed 13 bets with BWin, totalling £494, losing £122.30 in the process for a negative ROI of 24.96%.

Spotted a bargain we can correct that with?

[tikay]

Are the NFL bets likely to be larger punts on single games or small bets on accumulators?

Tikay is not a huge fan of multiples.

Is correct.......

Offer me a 4 leg acca, & I'll take the 4 singles all day!

Nit, see?

[Horneris]

Does this thread have Bwin?

Yup.

For geeks itt, we have placed 13 bets with BWin, totalling £494, losing £122.30 in the process for a negative ROI of 24.96%.

Spotted a bargain we can correct that with?

Yeah.

Mardy Fish v Roger Federer in the tennis tonight.

I recommend £80 on Mardy Fish UNDER 12.5 Games @ 17/20 (Bwin)
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/mens-us-open/roger-federer-v-mardy-fish/total-fish-games

Fish looked totally out of sorts the other night, scraping past an injured Simon who couldn't serve with any pace at all in 4. Fish hit an amazing 75 unforced errors which is virtually unheard of in 4 sets, 2 of which were short and only got 54% of first serves in. Now he comes up against the greatest of all time.

I think its unlikely he will get 12 games and I couldn't make this any bigger than 8/13.

I would be interested in some sort of alternative handicap at a speculative price but the only one that seems to be floating about is -11.5 @ 15/2 with Paddy Power and Fish only winning 6 games with his serve does seem a bit of a stretch too far.