Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

What’s coming up?

The Cycling has a rest day today, but the US Open Tennis continues.

But worry not, there IS a major sporting event at home – the first round of this, no less.



 




Oh yes.

You may think watching it dry is more interesting than the matches, but there is plenty of action tonight, including a televised near Local Derby between skinto Portsmouth, & Bournemouth.  Pompey, who desperately need to win this, to get a cup run & the attendant money, are a juicy 2/1.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/johnstones-paint-trophy/portsmouth-v-bournemouth/winner

Plenty of other games, too – there may be a bit of value here somewhere, if we cold but spot it.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/johnstones-paint-trophy


Footnote - What price ‘Arry being spotted by the Sky TV Cameras at the Pompey - B'Mouth match tonight, or even engaged as pundit for the night?  He only lives round the corner.


Here's Harry at home, though I'm not sure how recent this photo is. The laddo is named Jamie, might make a footballer eventually.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Exeter Even money at Coral to beat Aldershot.

Tisdale says he would like a good run in this competition and will play his strongest team.

Exeter at home.

Exeter after a poor opening game have won their last 3 on the bounce.Easily out classing Burton with a 3-0 win this Saturday.

Aldershot on the other hand have lost their last 3 on the bounce and were hammered 4-1 at Fleetwood Saturday.

Exeter have already beat Aldershot this season at Aldershot.

I'm new to all this, so I'll leave you to judge bet sizing!

Thanks.

I'll leave a decision on these Football suggestions until later this afternoon, early evening, otherwise it all gets a bit messy, but I'll include this one in the Preview.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/johnstones-paint-trophy/exeter-v-aldershot/winner

[Tonji]

A bit off topic, but was just checking out the odds on next years Tour de France:

http://odds.bestbetting.com/cycling/le-tour-de-france/winner/

Is Wiggins not expected to be leading for Sky next year, or will Froome be somewhere else?

Don't know enough about it to understand the odds, but Rodriguez is 40/1!

Wiggins is likely to stay with Sky as the main GC rider. Froome not sure, he could go. Cavadish will go from Sky.

Rodriguez, I'm not certain he will ride the tour.

TdF route & stages are announced in the next few weeks I think. Rumours of a mountain heavy tour. Market can't really be assessed until then.

[DungBeetle]

Harry's dog has had a good innings.

[tikay]

Harry's dog has had a good innings.

Bet he could tell a story or two, as well.

But that's for another time.....

[hector62]

Sadly it looks like some of the Koreans got a one way boat ticket so Dr Noh will not be able to defend his title as the best golfer in Korea. I have been having a look at the market for the forthcoming Ryder Cup and in particular the market for the top scoring European. This is a hard market to predict as you have to second guess the captain as not all players will play the same amount of matches. So who represents potential value in this market? There are to my mind 2 obvious pairings and that is Poulter and Rose, and Westwood and Donald. Maybe the Irish pair but I am not sure if they get along.

So I want to support a player in form, and who has the game to play fourball as well as foursomes and the ability to get on with a different bunch of people. That player is Paul Lawrie. Not only has he set his whole season up to qualify for this but he is in arguably the best form of his life. He will not be phased by the media pressure and there is no one on either team who will want to win more than him.

Counting against him is his age and therefore he may get rested for one of the foursomes. He is the sort of personality that could be the talisman for the European team and if I were captain I would certainly have him hitting the first shot. There is quite a discrepancy in his price with Stan James having him at 12-1 but we can get 25-1 with Betfred and 1/4 the price for top 3.

This is certainly in the banzai bracket as it is possible he could not even get picked to play for the first 2 days, which is what I would do to Kaymer for not doing a Captain Oates, but the each way element makes this a decent bet IMO. If all players were guaranteed the same number of matches I would suggest a larger bet but as it is we should keep it small.

Paul Lawrie top European in the Ryder cup £5 e/w 25-1 Betfred.

[tikay]

Sadly it looks like some of the Koreans got a one way boat ticket so Dr Noh will not be able to defend his title as the best golfer in Korea. I have been having a look at the market for the forthcoming Ryder Cup and in particular the market for the top scoring European. This is a hard market to predict as you have to second guess the captain as not all players will play the same amount of matches. So who represents potential value in this market? There are to my mind 2 obvious pairings and that is Poulter and Rose, and Westwood and Donald. Maybe the Irish pair but I am not sure if they get along.

So I want to support a player in form, and who has the game to play fourball as well as foursomes and the ability to get on with a different bunch of people. That player is Paul Lawrie. Not only has he set his whole season up to qualify for this but he is in arguably the best form of his life. He will not be phased by the media pressure and there is no one on either team who will want to win more than him.

Counting against him is his age and therefore he may get rested for one of the foursomes. He is the sort of personality that could be the talisman for the European team and if I were captain I would certainly have him hitting the first shot. There is quite a discrepancy in his price with Stan James having him at 12-1 but we can get 25-1 with Betfred and 1/4 the price for top 3.

This is certainly in the banzai bracket as it is possible he could not even get picked to play for the first 2 days, which is what I would do to Kaymer for not doing a Captain Oates, but the each way element makes this a decent bet IMO. If all players were guaranteed the same number of matches I would suggest a larger bet but as it is we should keep it small.

Paul Lawrie top European in the Ryder cup £5 e/w 25-1 Betfred.

Morning hector.

I don't actually enjoy the Ryder Cup - all those boorish spectators shouting & booing & stuff, as if they were at a football match - but I know most golf fans so, so I guess we'll be investing at some stage.

I don't know too much about golf, either, but I was following golf a lot (playing & spectating) when Paul won his Open after the van de Velde horror show, & he is a sort of personal favourite of mine, more especially as I have won a goodly sum of money by backing him recently. He seems to be full of zest & zing, & thriving with age.

You make the caveat that he may not play all the matches - fair comment. Even so, I find his long odds puzzling - he is the rank outsider. How that?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-european

I'll probably "risk" a tenner anyway, but I hope a few of our Golf Corry's will have a view on Paul Lawrie, Ryder Cup "Top European". @ 25/1. Seems like value to me.

[MahoganyVic]

Cheers, very interesting! Didnt realise the next route had yet to be announced, could make for some good bets then once it is. A lot can happen between now and next August mind you!

I did wonder about Rodriguez competing as he was only liosted by a couple of books.

A bit off topic, but was just checking out the odds on next years Tour de France:

http://odds.bestbetting.com/cycling/le-tour-de-france/winner/

Is Wiggins not expected to be leading for Sky next year, or will Froome be somewhere else?

Don't know enough about it to understand the odds, but Rodriguez is 40/1!

Wiggins is likely to stay with Sky as the main GC rider. Froome not sure, he could go. Cavadish will go from Sky.

Rodriguez, I'm not certain he will ride the tour.

TdF route & stages are announced in the next few weeks I think. Rumours of a mountain heavy tour. Market can't really be assessed until then.

[horseplayer]

Sadly it looks like some of the Koreans got a one way boat ticket so Dr Noh will not be able to defend his title as the best golfer in Korea. I have been having a look at the market for the forthcoming Ryder Cup and in particular the market for the top scoring European. This is a hard market to predict as you have to second guess the captain as not all players will play the same amount of matches. So who represents potential value in this market? There are to my mind 2 obvious pairings and that is Poulter and Rose, and Westwood and Donald. Maybe the Irish pair but I am not sure if they get along.

So I want to support a player in form, and who has the game to play fourball as well as foursomes and the ability to get on with a different bunch of people. That player is Paul Lawrie. Not only has he set his whole season up to qualify for this but he is in arguably the best form of his life. He will not be phased by the media pressure and there is no one on either team who will want to win more than him.

Counting against him is his age and therefore he may get rested for one of the foursomes. He is the sort of personality that could be the talisman for the European team and if I were captain I would certainly have him hitting the first shot. There is quite a discrepancy in his price with Stan James having him at 12-1 but we can get 25-1 with Betfred and 1/4 the price for top 3.

This is certainly in the banzai bracket as it is possible he could not even get picked to play for the first 2 days, which is what I would do to Kaymer for not doing a Captain Oates, but the each way element makes this a decent bet IMO. If all players were guaranteed the same number of matches I would suggest a larger bet but as it is we should keep it small.

Paul Lawrie top European in the Ryder cup £5 e/w 25-1 Betfred.

Morning hector.

I don't actually enjoy the Ryder Cup - all those boorish spectators shouting & booing & stuff, as if they were at a football match - but I know most golf fans so, so I guess we'll be investing at some stage.

I don't know too much about golf, either, but I was following golf a lot (playing & spectating) when Paul won his Open after the van de Velde horror show, & he is a sort of personal favourite of mine, more especially as I have won a goodly sum of money by backing him recently. He seems to be full of zest & zing, & thriving with age.

You make the caveat that he may not play all the matches - fair comment. Even so, I find his long odds puzzling - he is the rank outsider. How that?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-european

I'll probably "risk" a tenner anyway, but I hope a few of our Golf Corry's will have a view on Paul Lawrie, Ryder Cup "Top European". @ 25/1. Seems like value to me.

i am far from a golf expert or anything like

i presume the price is on the fact lawrie has no little us tour experience and the very long style course will not suit his game

[tikay]

Exeter Even money at Coral to beat Aldershot.

Tisdale says he would like a good run in this competition and will play his strongest team.

Exeter at home.

Exeter after a poor opening game have won their last 3 on the bounce.Easily out classing Burton with a 3-0 win this Saturday.

Aldershot on the other hand have lost their last 3 on the bounce and were hammered 4-1 at Fleetwood Saturday.

Exeter have already beat Aldershot this season at Aldershot.

I'm new to all this, so I'll leave you to judge bet sizing!

Thanks.

I have had a good look at this, & from what I can see, at the very least, Evens looks to be "value", so I've gone in & had a litttle bet. The only negative (that I can see) is that it looks too good to be true. Which generally means it is.

Good luck us.

So, £40 @ Evens (Corals), Exeter to beat Aldershot tonight.

ON

Single(s) - Win Receipt No.: 32189908 
Exeter v Aldershot - Match (90 Minutes Play) 
Exeter @ Evens 
 
Stake: £40.00 (£40.00 x 1 line) 
Estimated Returns: £ 80.00 

[hector62]

I think his odds are more due to the fact that some bookies think he has a maximum number of matches of 3, because of his age and maybe needing a Tikay nap at about 3pm, so he could only score 3 points which is unlikely to win. But I like someone who scraps and fights and I may also be influenced by always losing at match play to my father and not being able to work out why ! We are certainly relying on Olazabal getting the" Lawrie" factor but as they both play on the European tour I think he will have picked up on it.

Certainly a banzai but one with a lot of thought in it.

[superwomble]

I would like to suggest a tip for a different game in tonight's JPT, Southend Utd v AFC Wimbledon.

Southend claim to be fielding a strong team, they did well in the competition last season and the manager has pointed out the final is at Wembley. Wimbledon meanwhile never seem to take 'minor' cups seriously and field a mixture of first-teamers and reserves. We have been awful away this season, losing 3-1, 6-2 and 5-1. We are also handing a debut to Mikhael Jaimez-Ruiz in goal. He played for my other team, Dover Athletic, in the Conference South last season. He was adequate at that level, but Dover released him as they wanted better. Dover play two levels below Wimbledon.

Southend to win is 1.67 which, while probably a banker, could be too skinny. A better value bet could be Southend to be winning at half time (2.38 BetFred) or Southend to be winning at half time/full time (2.63 BetFred).

We were losing at half time in all 3 away games. Will leave bet sizing up to you if you decide to go for either.

[class]

I am led to believe Southend will field exactly the same team that beat Wycombe on Saturday.

[DungBeetle]

Are there any markets for Southend handicaps (eg for them them to win by 2 or more goals, 3 or more etc)

As you rightfully say Wimbledon have been WOEFUL away from home this season.

On the spreads buying Southend goal supremacy at 0.9 seems excellent business?  Given the Wimbledon defence I also like a buy of "Southend Goal Rush" with Spin at 22.  Can't see much downside as a Wimbledon clean sheet looks out of the question and they could concede bingo numbers again given that their last 2 away forays they have been 3-0 or 4-0 down at HALF TIME!

[ripple11]

What’s coming up?

The Cycling has a rest day today, but the US Open Tennis continues.

But worry not, there IS a major sporting event at home – the first round of this, no less.



 




Oh yes.

You may think watching it dry is more interesting than the matches, but there is plenty of action tonight, including a televised near Local Derby between skinto Portsmouth, & Bournemouth.  Pompey, who desperately need to win this, to get a cup run & the attendant money, are a juicy 2/1.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/johnstones-paint-trophy/portsmouth-v-bournemouth/winner

Plenty of other games, too – there may be a bit of value here somewhere, if we cold but spot it.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/johnstones-paint-trophy


Footnote - What price ‘Arry being spotted by the Sky TV Cameras at the Pompey - B'Mouth match tonight, or even engaged as pundit for the night?  He only lives round the corner.


Here's Harry at home, though I'm not sure how recent this photo is. The laddo is named Jamie, might make a footballer eventually.

Click to see full-size image.

With only one son in the photo,..... I'm guessing that is actually Jamie's older brother Mark.

Harry lived opposite us when he was at Bournemouth, and the family taught me all my football and gambling skills.