Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

 Buying the hook is a neutral ev thing to do quite a lot of the time, a minus ev thing most of the time and a plus ev thing some of the time.

 The key is to only use the hook when you can move through "key numbers".

 In NFL the key numbers are 3, 7, 10. These are the most likely winning margins. A 3 point favourite wins the game by 3 around 14% of the time.

 It is always value to buy the hook to turn a -3 pt 10/11 bet into a -2.5 5/6 bet.

 You will make money on a 3 pt game by buying the hook both ways and betting 5/6 the favourite -2.5 and the dog +3.5.

 Imagine betting £60 to win £50 on each 100 times.

 86 times the favourite fails to win by 3 and you lose £10 = (£860).

 14 times you win both bets and win £100 so + £1400.

 This is called middling and the threat of this is why many books do not allow you to buy the hook on 3 pt games.

[Bad Beat]

 Caribeann includes Pinnacle. They are the sharpest and the biggest along with CRIS and The Greek (Olympic).

 The tie does not neccessarily eat into our value, it just changes variance. As usual it's all about price. If we had to take 4/5 to get a game from 5 to 4.5 when betting the favourite we'd have a better number and be less likely to tie but we wouldn't have value.
 
 Tio get a game off three you can pay 23 points in US betting lingo and be neutral ev.

 In the US 5/6 is expressed as -120 (you bet $120 to win $100) 2/1 is expressed as +200 (you bet $100 to win $200).

 If you buy the hook on a 3 pt game you can go down to -143 and at that point it is cost-neutral. If you get on at -125 (4/5 in our language) or -130 (close to 8/11) then you are having a +ev bet. If you get on at -150, (where you bet $150 to win $100 or 4/6 in old money), then that is a -ev bet.

 I can give you established numbers for where it is right to buy the hook on all NFL numbers.

 

[tikay]

Caribeann includes Pinnacle. They are the sharpest and the biggest along with CRIS and The Greek (Olympic).

 The tie does not neccessarily eat into our value, it just changes variance. As usual it's all about price. If we had to take 4/5 to get a game from 5 to 4.5 when betting the favourite we'd have a better number and be less likely to tie but we wouldn't have value.
 
 Tio get a game off three you can pay 23 points in US betting lingo and be neutral ev.

 In the US 5/6 is expressed as -120 (you bet $120 to win $100) 2/1 is expressed as +200 (you bet $100 to win $200).

 If you buy the hook on a 3 pt game you can go down to -143 and at that point it is cost-neutral. If you get on at -125 (4/5 in our language) or -130 (close to 8/11) then you are having a +ev bet. If you get on at -150, (where you bet $150 to win $100 or 4/6 in old money), then that is a -ev bet.

 I can give you established numbers for where it is right to buy the hook on all NFL numbers.

 

Thanks, that makes a LOT more sense to me now.

FWIW, the game in question was Bears @ Packers......

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/chicago-bears-at-green-bay-packers/point-spread

Things seem to have changed a bit since a 6d ITV Seven or a 1/- EW Patent down at a dingy LBO were as exotic as it got.

[Bad Beat]

 Clearly all handicaps in the NFL are not created equal. You get 7 points for a TD (represents around 74% of scoring). You get 3 pts for a field goal.

 Games are way more likely to be won by 3 or 7 points than any other score. Games are unlikely to be won by 5 pts.

 The total points are way more likely to add up to 37 than any other number. 40 and 43 are other popular numbers.

 I value Bobby1's opinion on many things but on this one I am not too sure that buying the hook was a great bargain. It was OK and it probably was just cost-neutral, but I'm surprised that a shrewd guy like him didn't just take Packers -4.5 on Monday or Tuesday. I am not being too aftertime as I did not do this but it was pretty obvious that the public would bet this one up. Everyone loves the Packers at hiome, they can't see them losing their 1st two games, they are one of the nation's most popular teams, it's on national television on a day when there is only one game (that makes it 95% likely the favourite will get bet up just on that fact alone - most people back favs, everyone is betting on the game).

 I would say this one was always going to be a game where Packers backers need to be in early and Bears backers should wait until near the end.

 Myself I love the under in this game. It's gone from 48.5 to 50.5 already and the weather will be ok so I shall bet late and bet under. Anyone have thoughts?

[TightEnd]

tikay showed a picture of Brisbane Road, Leyton Orient, but not a current view. I'd estimate the artists impression is about 15-20 years old.

Nowadays development of the ground has brought hotel and housing complexes on each corner

Click to see full-size image.

which I think is one of the best transformations of a traditional ground in a while

In particular the view from the new side stand is one of the ebst you'll get in any division. Steep, and close enough to the action to feel a part of it



The iconic Leitch gabled main stand survives, unaltered. A legacy to different times. Outmoded perhaps, but great character.

Of course the future of the Olympic Stadium, and possible West Ham tenancy, a stones throw away from the Orient means challenges are ahead 

[Bad Beat]

 If you liike, when I get time, we can have a chat about the importance of the public in NFL lines and how that makes the sport different from all other US sports and therefore more exploitable. I can feel a chat about splitting the result vs splitting the handle coming on...

 Be very interested to hear more on the market in US sports and less about the players and the games as this stuff is always already factored in (although it can be over-factored by the main market and there are also books over here that miss things like the ruishing bet last week).

[TightEnd]

Clearly all handicaps in the NFL are not created equal. You get 7 points for a TD (represents around 74% of scoring). You get 3 pts for a field goal.

 Games are way more likely to be won by 3 or 7 points than any other score. Games are unlikely to be won by 5 pts.

 The total points are way more likely to add up to 37 than any other number. 40 and 43 are other popular numbers.

 I value Bobby1's opinion on many things but on this one I am not too sure that buying the hook was a great bargain. It was OK and it probably was just cost-neutral, but I'm surprised that a shrewd guy like him didn't just take Packers -4.5 on Monday or Tuesday. I am not being too aftertime as I did not do this but it was pretty obvious that the public would bet this one up. Everyone loves the Packers at hiome, they can't see them losing their 1st two games, they are one of the nation's most popular teams, it's on national television on a day when there is only one game (that makes it 95% likely the favourite will get bet up just on that fact alone - most people back favs, everyone is betting on the game).

 I would say this one was always going to be a game where Packers backers need to be in early and Bears backers should wait until near the end.

 Myself I love the under in this game. It's gone from 48.5 to 50.5 already and the weather will be ok so I shall bet late and bet under. Anyone have thoughts?

I like the Bears

The Green Bay defense was slap last in the NFL last season, and week 1 Alex Smith, helped by a fantastic OL and a weak secondary looked like Joe Namath. Joe Namth he is not

Cutler comes in with Marshall who he will throw it too all day and an emerging rookie Alshon Jeffery and the defense has to respect Forte and the running game too

I think the Bears should score a lot of points. Of course the history of the last couple of years suggests that no matter how many the opposition score, Rodgers will lead the packers to a few more.

However this Packers team is more one-dimensional than ever. Perennial Carthorse Cedric Benson is the running game, and if the Bears defense can at a minimum ensure the long passing game to the wide receivers is at least challenged then I like their chances

The spark for the Packers comes from Randall Cobb, did last week, and in my opinion the unusual plays in his direction are the threat to a Bears win

All things being equal it should be overs, but I think at 50-51 that's in the price

Bears with the spread for me

[redsimon]

What’s coming up?

The historic St Leger meeting continues @ Town Moor, & the following races will be televised today.


http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/meeting_of_cards.sd?r_date=2012-09-13&type=TV

Today’s feature is the Park Hill stakes, which  dates back 180 years.

“Park Hill” was the residence of a chap named Tony St Leger, after whom the famous race was named. Nope, I never made that up, it’s true.

The Ladies Golf continues.

NFL is on Sky Sports @ 00130 tomorrow morning, featuring Bears @ the Packers. We have 2 “First TD” Banzais in the game, but nothing else. The Packers are expected to win, I am assuredly assured.

Poker is televised @ 10pm tonight, on SS4, when one Richard Prew will be the Special Guest, & Miss Anna Fowler the Presenter,  on the Sky Poker Show.

Click to see full-size image.

Whoops, slipped into spam mode there. Sorry. Ahem.


Televised League Football returns this evening (it will be almost nightly from now) & tonight there is a right humdinger, from this iconic Stadium, about which Tighty (Guest on tonight’s Sky Poker TV Show) will no doubt recite chapter & verse.

Was it a deliberate thing to get most of the men dressed all in black in picture. Gives a weird effect of your heads floating ?

[Chompy]

After watching the Packers on Sunday I'm defo backing Chiacgo.

You fancy them to actually win outright Tighty? Early weeks the best time to be aggressive with this sort of bet - teams being priced up on the previous season's achievements?

How about Chicago H-T/F-T @ 9-2 with Sid?

If you had to pick four handicap bets this weekend, who would you go for?

[TightEnd]

As I say I like the Bears this season, and I like the Packers less than I did last season

Watched both games from last week on Gamepass, and saw nothing to dissuade me from that

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers have a losing record this year.

Which is quite an "out there" recommendation

Not sure what the best way to play it is, outrights for the punt rather an 10/11 +5 sounds fun

[tikay]

Clearly all handicaps in the NFL are not created equal. You get 7 points for a TD (represents around 74% of scoring). You get 3 pts for a field goal.

 Games are way more likely to be won by 3 or 7 points than any other score. Games are unlikely to be won by 5 pts.

 The total points are way more likely to add up to 37 than any other number. 40 and 43 are other popular numbers.

 I value Bobby1's opinion on many things but on this one I am not too sure that buying the hook was a great bargain. It was OK and it probably was just cost-neutral, but I'm surprised that a shrewd guy like him didn't just take Packers -4.5 on Monday or Tuesday. I am not being too aftertime as I did not do this but it was pretty obvious that the public would bet this one up. Everyone loves the Packers at hiome, they can't see them losing their 1st two games, they are one of the nation's most popular teams, it's on national television on a day when there is only one game (that makes it 95% likely the favourite will get bet up just on that fact alone - most people back favs, everyone is betting on the game).

 I would say this one was always going to be a game where Packers backers need to be in early and Bears backers should wait until near the end.

 Myself I love the under in this game. It's gone from 48.5 to 50.5 already and the weather will be ok so I shall bet late and bet under. Anyone have thoughts?

Thanks Neil, though I hope nobody construes my questions about the bet as in any way doubting Phil's view - I am just keen to learn, & all this stuff is a bit baffling to me.

I find it staggering that 37 points is "the most likely number".

I have to ask one more question.....

"....weather will be ok so I shall bet late and bet under......"

Why would "ok weather" means the unders were more likely?

[tikay]

 If you liike, when I get time, we can have a chat about the importance of the public in NFL lines and how that makes the sport different from all other US sports and therefore more exploitable. I can feel a chat about splitting the result vs splitting the handle coming on...

 Be very interested to hear more on the market in US sports and less about the players and the games as this stuff is always already factored in (although it can be over-factored by the main market and there are also books over here that miss things like the ruishing bet last week).

Yes please!

Loving the new lingo. Think I like Packers Backers best.

Did you manage to get on that Rushing bet last week? Even Fred was a little less nitty for once.

[horseplayer]

for the first time on here im lost

interesting stuff though

[tikay]

for the first time on here im lost

interesting stuff though

Worry not horsey, & listen up, I'm gonna teach you about buying the hook, & then splitting the handle.

Yup, I love the old handle splitter.

[Tonji]

Interesting, but also lost.

guess you need to be a NFL geek.