Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

personally i like main sequence and ursa major in the race eway

main sequence form is all there to see and will be suited by thought worthy and others going a decent pace.

ursa major (trained by murtagh sorry tc is progressive tough and stays all day

[tikay]

There is, I think, an outstanding bet in the CB40 final tomorrow

It being a September final the toss can be important, and this makes outright markets tricky

Instinctively I regarded Hampshire as the bigger hitting team. They are T20 champions after all

Warwickshire are the County Champions in the four day game. A team of accumulators. Strong line up, but not a team of thrashers

40 over cricket is a game of accumulation, especially in the dead middle overs post powerplay and before the thrash, and this accounts for Warwickshire's strength in this


Anyway, the research

In the CB40 this season both teams played 11 completed matches, group and semi final. Both had to play one Non FC team, Scotland and the Unicorns.

In those 11 games Hampshire hit 43 sixes. In five of the matches the six count was 7,6,5,5,5

In 11 completed games Warwickshire hit 22 sixes. On no occasion did they hit more than 3 sixes

This confirms what I say above

Hampshire more boom and bust, bigger hitters


I have to point out that Hampshire are missing Lumb and Maxwell, two of their strikers, who would have been playing all season

Warwickshire missing Trott, their arch-accumlator, who is not a six hitter

So, we have to allow for that. but....

We have one team averaging 3.95 sixes per match and the other 2.00 sixes a match over an 11 game sample size over the length of a season across all conditions and similar ranges of opponents

The team with this six hitting advantage should be odds on in this market tomorrow?


Well no, its 6/5 each of two, 4/1 the draw http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/domestic/cb40-league/hampshire-v-warwickshire/team-to-score-most-6s

With this bet we don't need to worry about losing the toss in September. No worries about weather.

In a vacuum Hampshire should be 4/5 here, in my opinion

Recommend £50 at 6/5 Hampshire to hit more sixes in the CB40 final tomorrow, multiple firms offer this price 

Lovely! Thanks Rich.

We are on, & we beat 6/5. Keefy Bonus for that.

We have £50 @ 11/10 with BetVictor, Hampshire to hit most 6's in tomorow's CB40 Final.

ON

Total possible returns 105.00

BET RECEIPT Single Selections
Hampshire v Warwickshire
Hampshire
(Team To Score Most Sixes)
Odds:  11/10
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  105.00

[Dubai]

obv 6/5 > 11/10

[TightEnd]

obv 6/5 > 11/10

Not in tikay's world.

[tikay]

obv 6/5 > 11/10

FFS, what WAS I thinking.........?

I'm off for a lie-down. Think my head was in odds on-territory, & I had done well.....

Bugger.

[horseplayer]

comedy gold!

[tikay]

I was balancing my range......

[Doobs]

You can normally tell from the Betfair market if anything is likely to be a non-runner. I haven't read a paper or Twitter today but there don't seem to be too many doubts.

 Ladbrokes will definitely hold the 1/4 as they are the sponsor and they "need" to do it for PR and marketing purposes.

 

Looking at oddschecker, most of the bookies are going 1/5 1,2,3.  I think all those at 8/1 barring ladbrokes are 1/4 1,2,3.

I know Camelot is a beast, and horses like that don't run in the Leger anymore.  But there must be a stamina doubt, and other good horses have tried and failed, though not recently.  2/5 seems mighty short in the circumstances.  Those with memories will remember thread refusing to back Frankel over a mile at 3/10 in his opener when all his  form was over a mile.  A Camelot win over two and a half furlongs than he has ever gone before is nowhere near as certain.

Add to that the generosity of the each way terms offered, then I think we should definitely follow Neil here.

Main Sequence e/w seems the bet to me, and it should be with Ladbrokes.

I hope Camelot wins of course, otherwise it will be another 10 years before we see anyone try.

[tikay]

You can normally tell from the Betfair market if anything is likely to be a non-runner. I haven't read a paper or Twitter today but there don't seem to be too many doubts.

 Ladbrokes will definitely hold the 1/4 as they are the sponsor and they "need" to do it for PR and marketing purposes.

 

Looking at oddschecker, most of the bookies are going 1/5 1,2,3.  I think all those at 8/1 barring ladbrokes are 1/4 1,2,3.

I know Camelot is a beast, and horses like that don't run in the Leger anymore.  But there must be a stamina doubt, and other good horses have tried and failed, though not recently.  2/5 seems mighty short in the circumstances.  Those with memories will remember thread refusing to back Frankel over a mile at 3/10 in his opener when all his  form was over a mile.  A Camelot win over two and a half furlongs than he has ever gone before is nowhere near as certain.

Add to that the generosity of the each way terms offered, then I think we should definitely follow Neil here.

Main Sequence e/w seems the bet to me, and it should be with Ladbrokes.

I hope Camelot wins of course, otherwise it will be another 10 years before we see anyone try.

How much are we suggesting, if we go the Main Sequence route?

PS - Laddies are 8/1, but if I really tried, I could get 15/2.

Click to see full-size image.

[AndrewT]

Great tip on the cricket Tighty, though I'm going to wait until it drifts to Evens before I get on.

[tikay]

See what I mean? Better quality insult, that.

[Doobs]

You can normally tell from the Betfair market if anything is likely to be a non-runner. I haven't read a paper or Twitter today but there don't seem to be too many doubts.

 Ladbrokes will definitely hold the 1/4 as they are the sponsor and they "need" to do it for PR and marketing purposes.

 

Looking at oddschecker, most of the bookies are going 1/5 1,2,3.  I think all those at 8/1 barring ladbrokes are 1/4 1,2,3.

I know Camelot is a beast, and horses like that don't run in the Leger anymore.  But there must be a stamina doubt, and other good horses have tried and failed, though not recently.  2/5 seems mighty short in the circumstances.  Those with memories will remember thread refusing to back Frankel over a mile at 3/10 in his opener when all his  form was over a mile.  A Camelot win over two and a half furlongs than he has ever gone before is nowhere near as certain.

Add to that the generosity of the each way terms offered, then I think we should definitely follow Neil here.

Main Sequence e/w seems the bet to me, and it should be with Ladbrokes.

I hope Camelot wins of course, otherwise it will be another 10 years before we see anyone try.

How much are we suggesting, if we go the Main Sequence route?

PS - Laddies are 8/1, but if I really tried, I could get 15/2.

Click to see full-size image.

£25 each way seems about right.  Definitely value, probably not big enough to get your account restricted?

[AndrewT]

See what I mean? Better quality insult, that.

I wouldn't worry about it - it's still early days for Fred.

I'm sure by page 4000 you'll get the hang of it.

[tikay]

Lots of firms are betting ew 1/4 and there are currently 9 runners. As you know if it goes down to 7 or less it will be 1/4 1,2.

 You can currently back ALL the horses ew and be guaranteed a profit on the race so I think it's virtually compulsory to have a bet.

 The only problem is getting on and not ruining your account.

 I would advise the thread to hit the shops on this one.

 Main Sequence and Michaelangelo ae the two where the Betfair win odds are closest to the price we can bet ew on so I would advise one or either of them. I quite like Main Sequence at 8/1.

 We get 8/1 the win instead of 12/1 on betfair (-ev to the tune of 3%ish). We get 2/1 the place instead of 6/5 Betfair (+ev to the tune of 14%ish).

 We can assume that the machine is all-knowing on a very mature liquid market and they have done the work for us.

We have £25 EW on "Main Sequence" with Ladbrokes, @ 8/1, qtr odds 1,2,3, non-runner no bet. The bet is owned by Neil, but thanks also to Doobsy for the nudge.

ON

Selection8/1 - Main Sequence

EventLadbrokes St Leger Ladbrokes St Leger

MarketNon Runner No Bet
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Main Sequence - Each Way
Each Way 1/4 1,2,3
2 lines at £25.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £50.00
Potential Return: £300.00
Time: 14/09/12 13:26
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000120

[TightEnd]

Good to hear RvP, Kagawa and Fletcher all fit for #MUFC to face #WAFC

So says BBC local reporter.