Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Lewis moves on......

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/19755236

Money grabbing fool

It was not about money.......

[RickBFA]

I have been looking at the corners handicap for Man Utd at home.

Last season, Man Utd averaged 8.89 corners to the oppositions 3.42 corners. An average positive of 5.47 corners per game.

In games against their closest rivals (Arsenal,Chelsea,Man City and Liverpool) the stats change. Man Utd had 18 corners and the opposition 22 corners. An enormous difference.

If you remove these close/intense games from last season's stats and analyse the corners against weaker opposition you find Man Utd average 10.07 corners per game and the opponents 2.86 corners. An average positive of 7.21 corners per game.

On saturday, Bet365 have Man Utd -3 corners at 21/20 against Spurs.

Give the stats above, this looks like value and I'm on.

I'd recommend a bet on this but perhaps you will get some feedback on my thoughts.

[tikay]

I have been looking at the corners handicap for Man Utd at home.

Last season, Man Utd averaged 8.89 corners to the oppositions 3.42 corners. An average positive of 5.47 corners per game.

In games against their closest rivals (Arsenal,Chelsea,Man City and Liverpool) the stats change. Man Utd had 18 corners and the opposition 22 corners. An enormous difference.

If you remove these close/intense games from last season's stats and analyse the corners against weaker opposition you find Man Utd average 10.07 corners per game and the opponents 2.86 corners. An average positive of 7.21 corners per game.

On saturday, Bet365 have Man Utd -3 corners at 21/20 against Spurs.

Give the stats above, this looks like value and I'm on.

I'd recommend a bet on this but perhaps you will get some feedback on my thoughts.

Thanks Rick.

Yes, I'd love some feedback from others.

I've been sweating the Corner Markets this season, & it's all quite interesting. As most prices are generic, there are, from time to time, value opportunities. 

I spotted one this week, Leeds v Everton, & had several bets in different ways, pretty confident that Leeds would get x corners, and that 2nd half would have more corners. I had very mixed feelings when after 44 minutes, there had not been a single corner to either side.......but it got there, with some to spare. Really interesting market, I think.

[Tonji]

Lewis moves on......

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/19755236

wonder if Schumacher will now retire for the second time?

[bobAlike]

Lewis moves on......

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/19755236

Money grabbing fool

It was not about money.......

I heard somwhere that the deal with his management company means they get 50% of his sponsorship deals outside of F1 which will be a hell of a lot more with Merc than Mclaren.
I wonder which team they pushed preferred him to sign with?

[aaron1867]

It lookes like a lot in Fred are all aboard Barnsley and Brighton, but another one to add to your doubles and trebles is Wolves to beat Sheffield Wednesday.

Wolves are 21/20 and I think the price is big.

Wolves are not short of top class strikers and Wednesday have let in goals in every single league game this season, whilst only picking up one away point all season. Also Wednesday also fielded a half decent side aagainst Southampton and still got walked over by a tame Southampton line up, not to mention our main threat (Antonio) is supposed to be carrying a slight injury, so not ideal.

I am a Wednesday fan too, expecting another thrashing, unfortunately.

[Doobs]

I have been looking at the corners handicap for Man Utd at home.

Last season, Man Utd averaged 8.89 corners to the oppositions 3.42 corners. An average positive of 5.47 corners per game.

In games against their closest rivals (Arsenal,Chelsea,Man City and Liverpool) the stats change. Man Utd had 18 corners and the opposition 22 corners. An enormous difference.

If you remove these close/intense games from last season's stats and analyse the corners against weaker opposition you find Man Utd average 10.07 corners per game and the opponents 2.86 corners. An average positive of 7.21 corners per game.

On saturday, Bet365 have Man Utd -3 corners at 21/20 against Spurs.

Give the stats above, this looks like value and I'm on.

I'd recommend a bet on this but perhaps you will get some feedback on my thoughts.

So Spurs aren't a close rival and Liverpool are?  I expect the gap to close under their current managers.  The gap closes vs better sides, and Spurs are one of the better sides.  Gap is 6 against bad sides and zero against the best, 3 doesn't feel out of line here?

[henrik777]

Ryder cup

2010 5 halves

2008 7 halves

2006 7 halves

2004 3 halves

2002 7 halves

1999 5 halves

1997 5 halves

1995 1 half

1993  4 halves

1991 5 halves

1989 2 halves

1987 4 halves

1985 3 halves

1983 5 halves

1981 3 halves

1979 2 halves


As you can see the Ryder cup is more keenly contested in the recent history and only 1/7 (last 7) have dipped less than 5 halves.

Paddy power are 8/11 over 4.5 halves. Betfair 1.8.

Max bet material.

Sandy

[tikay]

Ryder cup

2010 5 halves

2008 7 halves

2006 7 halves

2004 3 halves

2002 7 halves

1999 5 halves

1997 5 halves

1995 1 half

1993  4 halves

1991 5 halves

1989 2 halves

1987 4 halves

1985 3 halves

1983 5 halves

1981 3 halves

1979 2 halves


As you can see the Ryder cup is more keenly contested in the recent history and only 1/7 (last 7) have dipped less than 5 halves.

Paddy power are 8/11 over 4.5 halves. Betfair 1.8.

Max bet material.

Sandy

Thanks Sandy. I LOVE that.

I'm not sure I'm brave enough to MAX that for the official account, but I'm definitely keen on it, & will do it off-thread.

Any other views on this from anyone? For those not aware, henrik's stat based bets have served us very well indeed.

We have around 15 minutes to make our decision, the market will change or disappear once they tee-off.

[henrik777]

Betfair 1.8 was withdrawn and i took the 1.77.

Sandy

[Tal]

Can't see anyone winning it comfortably, which implies a few halves. Can't comment on the price, but it seems at least right, if not in our favour.

Reasoning does logically suggest it is well inside even money.

Also gives us a fun sweat, not that this should ever affect Fred's potent decision making

[ACE2M]

Ryder cup

2010 5 halves

2008 7 halves

2006 7 halves

2004 3 halves

2002 7 halves

1999 5 halves

1997 5 halves

1995 1 half

1993  4 halves

1991 5 halves

1989 2 halves

1987 4 halves

1985 3 halves

1983 5 halves

1981 3 halves

1979 2 halves


As you can see the Ryder cup is more keenly contested in the recent history and only 1/7 (last 7) have dipped less than 5 halves.

Paddy power are 8/11 over 4.5 halves. Betfair 1.8.

Max bet material.

Sandy

Thanks Sandy. I LOVE that.

I'm not sure I'm brave enough to MAX that for the official account, but I'm definitely keen on it, & will do it off-thread.

Any other views on this from anyone? For those not aware, henrik's stat based bets have served us very well indeed.

We have around 15 minutes to make our decision, the market will change or disappear once they tee-off.

Put it on.

[tikay]

Ryder cup

2010 5 halves

2008 7 halves

2006 7 halves

2004 3 halves

2002 7 halves

1999 5 halves

1997 5 halves

1995 1 half

1993  4 halves

1991 5 halves

1989 2 halves

1987 4 halves

1985 3 halves

1983 5 halves

1981 3 halves

1979 2 halves


As you can see the Ryder cup is more keenly contested in the recent history and only 1/7 (last 7) have dipped less than 5 halves.

Paddy power are 8/11 over 4.5 halves. Betfair 1.8.

Max bet material.

Sandy

Thanks Sandy.

Deep breath incoming......

We have £110 @ 8/11 with Paddy Power, OVER 4.5 halved matches.

ON


The Ryder Cup Total Halved Matches
28-09-2012 13:20
Total Halved Matches
Over (4.5) @ 8/11
 
Your Bets Win
Single: Over (4.5) @ 8/11
1 line at £110.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £110.00
Potential returns: £190.00
No: O/23146337/0000149

 
Total stake: £110.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £110.00

[Doobs]

Ryder cup

2010 5 halves

2008 7 halves

2006 7 halves

2004 3 halves

2002 7 halves

1999 5 halves

1997 5 halves

1995 1 half

1993  4 halves

1991 5 halves

1989 2 halves

1987 4 halves

1985 3 halves

1983 5 halves

1981 3 halves

1979 2 halves


As you can see the Ryder cup is more keenly contested in the recent history and only 1/7 (last 7) have dipped less than 5 halves.

Paddy power are 8/11 over 4.5 halves. Betfair 1.8.

Max bet material.

Sandy

Thanks Sandy.

Deep breath incoming......

We have £110 @ 8/11 with Paddy Power, OVER 4.5 halved matches.

ON


The Ryder Cup Total Halved Matches
28-09-2012 13:20
Total Halved Matches
Over (4.5) @ 8/11
 
Your Bets Win
Single: Over (4.5) @ 8/11
1 line at £110.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £110.00
Potential returns: £190.00
No: O/23146337/0000149

 
Total stake: £110.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £110.00

That really wasn't a max.  Good luck

[Karabiner]

I missed the opening shot, what was the first shout?