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Chompy
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« Reply #16995 on: September 28, 2012, 01:35:58 PM » |
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I couldn't hear anything specific being shouted. All went very hushed, then a cheer.
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
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tikay
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« Reply #16996 on: September 28, 2012, 01:36:43 PM » |
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I missed the opening shot, what was the first shout?
Pretty sure he said "oh fuck" |
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016). |
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ripple11
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« Reply #16997 on: September 28, 2012, 01:38:21 PM » |
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Betfair 1.8 was withdrawn and i took the 1.77.
Sandy
nice spot thanks.......took this as well |
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TightEnd
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« Reply #16998 on: September 28, 2012, 01:38:38 PM » |
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After the hush, the first distinguishable shout was "USA USA USA"
No idea how they will settle it
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
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tikay
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« Reply #16999 on: September 28, 2012, 01:39:35 PM » |
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Halved the first.
Chop it up, anyone?
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016). |
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henrik777
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« Reply #17000 on: September 28, 2012, 01:40:28 PM » |
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That really wasn't a max. Good luck
Why not ? Sandy |
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tikay
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« Reply #17001 on: September 28, 2012, 01:42:32 PM » |
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Looks jolly cold there.
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016). |
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tonytats
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« Reply #17002 on: September 28, 2012, 01:45:56 PM » |
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Romford dogs tonight
924 glamire lad 6/4
1011 Jenna's pony 2/1
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tikay
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« Reply #17003 on: September 28, 2012, 01:48:05 PM » |
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Romford dogs tonight
924 glamire lad 6/4
1011 Jenna's pony 2/1
Thanks Tony, I'll have a look at them later - not that it will help much. Maybe one of our cherry followers will comment. |
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016). |
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The Camel
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« Reply #17004 on: September 28, 2012, 01:50:05 PM » |
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That really wasn't a max. Good luck
Why not ? Sandy Wonder if the fact this is going to b a birdie fest means there will be a much wider spread of scores and hence halves are slightly less likely than normal? The stats are there for everyone to see and the price is the price for a reason. |
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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redarmi
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« Reply #17005 on: September 28, 2012, 02:09:48 PM » |
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That really wasn't a max. Good luck
Why not ? Sandy Because it is a fairly simple mathematical task using binomial distribution to figure out the correct price based on what the actual match prices are likely to be. If we assume that the correct price is 5/1 for every match to be halved (it is probably a bit bigger actually but it works to prove the point) then the cumulative probability of 0,1,2,3 and 4 games being halved is 48.98% so overs is 51.02% meaning at 8/11 you have an expectation of $88.12 for every $100 you bet meaning you lose $11.88. We have to assume that the market prices for the matches are a better indication of the probabilities than the previous history because 7 Ryder Cups over very different courses probably are not that closely correlated to what will happen this weekend and also 7 is a tiny sample size. |
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Karabiner
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« Reply #17006 on: September 28, 2012, 02:13:29 PM » |
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Do you think Poults is up for this?
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
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redarmi
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« Reply #17007 on: September 28, 2012, 02:14:32 PM » |
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I should probably add that if you think the chances of matches being halved are significantly less than the 5-1 I used then you should probably still should not bet this particular bet and would be better off betting all of the individual matches to be halved because you can use Betfair and bet against less margin and reduce your variance by increasing your number of bets.
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tikay
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« Reply #17008 on: September 28, 2012, 02:15:32 PM » |
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Do you think Poults is up for this?
Only a bit...... |
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016). |
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Author