Tips for Tikay

[class]

Big run boom winner. 2 out of 3 on the night. Lynch made the overs too, should have gone for the full whack.

I had bets on the two rushers, so thanks your Tightyness.

[Eso Kral]

Big run boom winner. 2 out of 3 on the night. Lynch made the overs too, should have gone for the full whack.

I had bets on the two rushers, so thanks your Tightyness.

Just the Gore bet for me but thanks Tighty!!

Sausage Rolls on me next time I see you!

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 1140, Friday October 19th (covers 2 days)

LOSS on Month = £369.00

Unsettled Bets  - £297.50


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=13

[horseplayer]

well done tighty

morning tikay

[tikay]

Daily Report as at 1155, Friday October 19th

This covers TWO days. Been a bit busy & distracted with some stuff, & some other stuff, so I need to get back on track with Fred.

We made a profit of £55 over the 48 hours.

4 bets completed, two wins, two losses, but an overall profit of £55 will do nicely.

Both winners came from Tighty, who put up a great portfolio of NFL bets, & he got 2 out of 3 home.

Football returns from the “International Break” this weekend, & starts with a cracking televised game tonight, Sheff Weds v Leeds.   

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/sheffield-wednesday-v-leeds/winner

Presumably, Bookings Markets will be of interest in this?


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/sheffield-wednesday-v-leeds/total-booking-points


Goals?

Leeds games have had over 2.5 in 8 games out of 10. Sheff Weds games have had over 2.5 goals in  7 games out of 9.  The price looks a bit mean, though.


 
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/sheffield-wednesday-v-leeds/over-under-2.5

[tikay]

well done tighty

morning tikay

You any better Mr Horsey?

[TightEnd]

India v England Test Matches

Begin 15 Nov

India to win 4-0 at 20-1

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-england/india-v-england-tests/india-england-tests/series-correct-score

An England batting line up with a new opener and fragile against spin goes to the sub continent to face India in four tests up to Christmas

They will face RaviChandran Ashwin and Pragjan Ojha

Ojha is a left arm spinner who I saw a lot of in 2011. In his last two home series he took 20 wickets in three tests versus the West Indies and 13 wickets in two tests versus New Zealand. 75 wickets in 16 Tests overall

Ashwin is an offie but has the huge virtue of another ball, the so called soduku ball, a finger-flicked tennis-ball legbreak, which he developed from the streets of Chennai and used it effectively in international cricket on a bigger, harder cricket ball.

Ashwin has 49 wickets in 8 Tests having only made his debut in Nov 2011

The point being that India should underprepare their pitches to spin and spin often. They got stuffed in England under glowering Skies 4-0 in 2011 and the chances of them giving the English seamers anything remotely friendly is low.

We can pick Swann and Panesar and take them on, but to do so weakens another area, either losing a batsman or a seamer and unbalancing the side as Panesar doesn't bat.

I expect India, notably Kohli, to have a strong batting series.

Weather will not be a factor.

India are 11-10 to win the first match and if you were to do an accumulator on all four games at 11/10 then you'll get 18-1

In practice I think they are odds-on for some of these Tests at home


Recommendation £10 @20-1 Ladbrokes. Generally 14-1 elsewhere and I think its a sporting bet for minimal money

[horseplayer]

well done tighty

morning tikay

You any better Mr Horsey?

still feeling a little hoarse

boom boom

[millidonk]

well done tighty

morning tikay

You any better Mr Horsey?

still feeling a little hoarse

boom boom

Woah woah woah, please rein in these terrible puns.

[TightEnd]

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings Sunday 6pm

Both teams a surprising 4-2

Both teams have "squiggles" as much borne of years of under-performance as anything

I think its a pick-em game

However, the bookmakers disagree and have Minnesota at home 6.5 point favourites

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/arizona-cardinals-at-minnesota-vikings/point-spread

Why might Arizona be interesting?

They have a smothering defense, that has only conceded 16 points a game in the six games of this season, fourth in the league. Logically if this continues in Minneapolis then a spluttering offense only has to score 10 points to cover that spread.

They held the Patriots to 18 points, the Eagles to 6, the Bills to 19 and have only conceded 20 points in one game this season

What Arizona also have though is scoring threats from special teams, notably Patrick Peterson last years first round draft pick. They don't quite match up with the Vikings offensive threats (Peterson and Harvin) but nonetheless have one of the best receivers in Fitzgerald who has 430 receiving yards so far and 3 touchdowns

I spotted this from a Vegas account on Neil Channing's twitter (thoughts please Neil)

"In Vikings games, favorite has covered 1 of last 8. In Cardinals games, favorite has covered 1 of last 12"

This reflects that both teams have been improving and generally winning as underdogs throughout this year


Recommendation (and I am tempted to pick the Cardinals at 5/2 straight) is Cardinals +6.5 at 10/11, generally available

If we saw +7 that would be lovely (I don't think we will)

[horseplayer]

well done tighty

morning tikay

You any better Mr Horsey?

still feeling a little hoarse

boom boom

Woah woah woah, please rein in these terrible puns.

neigh problem sir

[aaron1867]

I've been looking at Wednesday v Leeds odds all day and I just can't see anything that takes my eye or any value at all.

I can see goals, cards and a Wednesday win, but just no value on any of them.

I think after a break and a local derby against Leeds and Warnock will only spur us on even more. Maybe a red card @ 5/1 is where I may go.

In other news, Mr Frankel runs tomorrow! Get the cheque book out!

[Bad Beat]

 I retweeted that stat as I quite like the Cards here Tighty. I tend to back a lot more home teams than away teams in the NFL but I think this line is a little high and I wonder whether the Cards quite get the respect their record deserves.

 I shall have another look at all the games tonight before I have too many bets, (I have had four so far this week and I've done nothing in this game so far), but I could see me taking Arizona here.

 So far a slight majority of the bets are for Arizona. Usually if the syndicates choose to bet a team in the week it'll be because they worry the public will be the same way as them. Here I would think the public on Sunday are way more likely to back a popular home favourite than an unfashionable away dog so I would guess that the reason the syndicates have sat on their hands in this game is that they expect the line to go higher and they would like the dog +7 or 7.5.

 I reckon the next move off 6.5 is 75% to be 7 and only 25% to be 6 so I would wait and take the 7 tomorrow, or if you are prepared to miss a winner if it never happens then hope for 7.5 on Sunday.

 Like the bet, no need to rush in now.

[Bad Beat]

 On the subject of NFL. Does anyone try and bet singles midweek in Hills shops on this sport?  I think I've hit a brick wall there. It seems wherever I go it's £55 at 10/11 and the rest 8/11 or £55 at 10/11 and the line is moved 1.5 points (I take the £55 and they then leave the line to torment me sometimes for three days longer - I fuckin hate that - I accept being restricted but don't take the piss and leave the line there).

 Does anyone with any knowledge of trading principles have an amount I can have as a stranger in a new shop without a phonecall?

[horseplayer]

On the subject of NFL. Does anyone try and bet singles midweek in Hills shops on this sport?  I think I've hit a brick wall there. It seems wherever I go it's £55 at 10/11 and the rest 8/11 or £55 at 10/11 and the line is moved 1.5 points (I take the £55 and they then leave the line to torment me sometimes for three days longer - I fuckin hate that - I accept being restricted but don't take the piss and leave the line there).

 Does anyone with any knowledge of trading principles have an amount I can have as a stranger in a new shop without a phonecall?

not on nfl but hills in general for a stranger in a new shop would not lay much more into three figures