Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Quite disappointed no one commented on "it's all Greek to me"

I made myself laugh and everything.

You are way too chirpy tonight. Anything to do with happenings in North London tonight? 

If so, be careful, be very careful - tomorrow is banana-skin territory, no matter what end they should be opened.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/maribor-v-tottenham/winner

[tikay]

Another one please

Huge Dallas Cowboys fan since 1982. Don't miss a game, read the forums daily, live stream press-conferences. The lot. Sadly.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-giants-at-dallas-cowboys/point-spread

There has been major injury news in the last 24 hours

When the Cowboys beat the Giants as a three point Dog in the opening game of the season, Sean Lee the leader of the defense (makes the calls, leader on the field) had 14 tackles and a forced fumble. Huge performance

Not as high profile as the loss of say Lewis to the Ravens, but he's now on Injured reserve as of today and profile apart the magnitude of the loss is similar to the Ravens loss. Virtually irreplaceable (they have done so via Ernie Sims, off the street)

In that week one game DeMarco Murray rushed for 131 yards on 22 carries. He is out Sunday too. Furthermore his back up Felix Jones is banged up and may miss the game

As for the Cowboys overall, offense has been spluttering all season, with the OL only now beginning to gel and the skill positions such as Witten, Bryant (million dollar hands, million peanut brain), Austin underperforming


The Giants are healthier, Nicks is back, Bradshaw is back.

The line has not moved for this significant injury news

NYG -1 looks max bet material to me, but I don't know what I am missing?

I am aware of Neil's thoughts on money generally coming in for the Cowboys as we near weekends. Has that held the line up?

I make the NYG a touchdown favourite in this game. NYG were -3 first game of the season since when they are 5-1, Dallas are 2-3 and the injury positions completely reversed

(History is a bit unpopular as a reason for a bet on here, but the Giants are 3-0 at the new Cowboys Stadium. big chip on the shoulder for the Giants players as our idiot owner keeps firing them up with talk, which gets them going. They play up, the Cowboys choke like a Heimlich Manoeuvre training course with alarming frequency)

What am I missing?

Reminder.

Any further views?

[kukushkin88]

This is looking like an unlikely Max bet on politics of all things, too.

We have missed a bit of price, but surely it can only move one way now?

Yes, no?

This questions is still valid.....

What makes this a max bet?  I follow politics, but am simply not close enough to have a view on the prices, and just assume those that are pricing this know more about US politics than me.  

I think we can just interpret the information out there more intelligently than the bookmakers, we know more about Politics imo, sounds horribly arrogant somehow. Although with Red as a Politics graduate and massively experienced odds compiler saying 1/5 then 8/15 sounds good as a max.

[Doobs]

This is looking like an unlikely Max bet on politics of all things, too.

We have missed a bit of price, but surely it can only move one way now?

Yes, no?

This questions is still valid.....

What makes this a max bet?  I follow politics, but am simply not close enough to have a view on the prices, and just assume those that are pricing this know more about US politics than me.  

I reflected on it all day, read a load of gumf, listened to Reds, Andrew, Tighty, Fellaini & then Kuku, & it just felt right, judging by their comments & analysis.  

The plan is to get November off to a flyer.

I am hoping there was a right winger amongst that lot.

£9m bet on the market on betfair.  It isn't an obscure one likely to be mispriced.

Anyway, too late. I didn't see your post confirming your bet before posting mine.  Need to move along.  

1 November is just another day.  Slowly slowly catchee monkey.

[Tal]

Quite disappointed no one commented on "it's all Greek to me"

I made myself laugh and everything.

You are way too chirpy tonight. Anything to do with happenings in North London tonight? 

If so, be careful, be very careful - tomorrow is banana-skin territory, no matter what end they should be opened.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/maribor-v-tottenham/winner

All the more reason to chirp now!

Whether I chirp or not today, I'll be getting it in the neck if we lose, so might as well enjoy it while I can.

If it is banana skin territory, I now know my way around a banana, so this should be no trouble at all.

[Bad Beat]

 I haven't been online as much as usual for a couple of days and it took me a while to catch-up. Great post by Bobby1 (Jo) a few pages ago.

 I am also now missing my Saturday mornings with the eight races from Hackney.

[AceHighSuited]

I see the Pinny line has moved on points total in the Thursday night game, any thoughts on this?

I got some matched @ 1.88 on over 40.5 points, when pinny line was 41.5 and its now 42.5. 

NFL isn't a sport I know a whole lot about, but again from reading this thread and others on blonde I am picking up on bits and bobs, checking pinny for example is something new to me. 

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0915, Thursday October 24th

LOSS on Month = £729.00

Unsettled Bets  - £497.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=13

[tikay]

Daily Report as at 0945, Thursday October 25th

No bets completed yesterday, so we stood still. Almost a profit in itself, the way we are running right now.

We placed £200 worth of stuff, £180 on the US Presidential Election, & £20 on good old Dr Noh, from our Banana Corry. Included in the £180 was our first MAX in months. Not sure why, when having a bad month, I elected to go for a MAX, but everything about the bet felt right. Quote that back at me when it goes tits up. Obama's price has hardened a shade overnight, Paddy Power, with whom we got 8/15, now go 2/5, though there remains plenty of 1/2.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

We had a good natter yesterday, about 12 pages worth, proper reality check. We needed it, too. All good.   

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[MANTIS01]

Just picking up on Camel's point about Messi having a run of not scoring against English teams being pure variance. Confidence and psychology play a big part in sport, and how people act and perform under different conditions isn't just ruled by the laws of mathematics, people are people. In all sports the participants will have favourite grounds/venues and bogey grounds where their performance will be predisposed to a certain level based on past performances. So if a golfer loves playing at Wentworth because he always seems to score well it follows that when he steps up to the first tee at Wentworth he will have heightened confidence based on those past performances. And if he always puts it in the bunker on the 10th psychology says he is predisposed to hit the bunker again. So my view is a run of any kind in sport shouldn't be dismissed. If a striker is on a barren run I would say he is less likely to score next game even though his overall stats say he is more likely to.

So let's say Messi hasn't scored in the last 10 games vs prem clubs and obv will only be facing the same top 4 clubs/players in the CL. When he touches down in Manchester on some cold December night, wind pissing in his face, aggro crowd, elbow in face from Yaya Toure first minute. The environment, the conditions, will be familiar with past unsuccessful trips and so his performance level is predisposed to drop. Basically if he thinks he doesn't like playing in England because he never scores (a view that manifests itself on a run of not scoring in England) then sure thing he is less likely to score on the next visit to England. Less likely than say going back to Deportivo with the sun on his back, wind in his hair, where he smashed in a hat-trick last week.

Not only that the defenders of the teams who have contained him before will have added confidence of doing it again. And the coaches will have faith in their tactics which have rendered previous successes.

All this talk of maths is taking the romance out of sport. Breaks my heart to think Bob Champion winning the National was just variance.

[The Camel]

Just picking up on Camel's point about Messi having a run of not scoring against English teams being pure variance. Confidence and psychology play a big part in sport, and how people act and perform under different conditions isn't just ruled by the laws of mathematics, people are people. In all sports the participants will have favourite grounds/venues and bogey grounds where their performance will be predisposed to a certain level based on past performances. So if a golfer loves playing at Wentworth because he always seems to score well it follows that when he steps up to the first tee at Wentworth he will have heightened confidence based on those past performances. And if he always puts it in the bunker on the 10th psychology says he is predisposed to hit the bunker again. So my view is a run of any kind in sport shouldn't be dismissed. If a striker is on a barren run I would say he is less likely to score next game even though his overall stats say he is more likely to.

So let's say Messi hasn't scored in the last 10 games vs prem clubs and obv will only be facing the same top 4 clubs/players in the CL. When he touches down in Manchester on some cold December night, wind pissing in his face, aggro crowd, elbow in face from Yaya Toure first minute. The environment, the conditions, will be familiar with past unsuccessful trips and so his performance level is predisposed to drop. Basically if he thinks he doesn't like playing in England because he never scores (a view that manifests itself on a run of not scoring in England) then sure thing he is less likely to score on the next visit to England. Less likely than say going back to Deportivo with the sun on his back, wind in his hair, where he smashed in a hat-trick last week.

Not only that the defenders of the teams who have contained him before will have added confidence of doing it again. And the coaches will have faith in their tactics which have rendered previous successes.

All this talk of maths is taking the romance out of sport. Breaks my heart to think Bob Champion winning the National was just variance.

A beautifully written post.

But alas almost complete bollocks.

Is Manchester more hostile than Turkey, Serbia or Greece?

Is the weather worse than in Poland, Russia or Austria?

The only part which has any credibility is the Yaya reference which is dealt with by the fact Barca are a bigger price than normal v English teams.

How does a team managed by Jose Mouhrihno having success stopping Messi affect Neil Lennon's Celtic having success?

If you honestly believe Messi has sleepless night before playing a British team because of his lack of success in the past, I despair for you.

[Doobs]

For those that bet with Pinny, you may want to review your gambling arrangements.

http://www.lvrj.com/business/sports-book-director-for-cantor-gaming-arrested-175670521.html

Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert was arrested Wednesday in Las Vegas by state gaming agents in connection with a warrant filed by the district attorney in Queens County, N.Y.

Gaming and legal sources confirmed the charges involve PinnacleSports.com, one of the largest offshore sports wagering websites. Sources said agents for the website were arrested in several cities Wednesday.

[MANTIS01]

Just picking up on Camel's point about Messi having a run of not scoring against English teams being pure variance. Confidence and psychology play a big part in sport, and how people act and perform under different conditions isn't just ruled by the laws of mathematics, people are people. In all sports the participants will have favourite grounds/venues and bogey grounds where their performance will be predisposed to a certain level based on past performances. So if a golfer loves playing at Wentworth because he always seems to score well it follows that when he steps up to the first tee at Wentworth he will have heightened confidence based on those past performances. And if he always puts it in the bunker on the 10th psychology says he is predisposed to hit the bunker again. So my view is a run of any kind in sport shouldn't be dismissed. If a striker is on a barren run I would say he is less likely to score next game even though his overall stats say he is more likely to.

So let's say Messi hasn't scored in the last 10 games vs prem clubs and obv will only be facing the same top 4 clubs/players in the CL. When he touches down in Manchester on some cold December night, wind pissing in his face, aggro crowd, elbow in face from Yaya Toure first minute. The environment, the conditions, will be familiar with past unsuccessful trips and so his performance level is predisposed to drop. Basically if he thinks he doesn't like playing in England because he never scores (a view that manifests itself on a run of not scoring in England) then sure thing he is less likely to score on the next visit to England. Less likely than say going back to Deportivo with the sun on his back, wind in his hair, where he smashed in a hat-trick last week.

Not only that the defenders of the teams who have contained him before will have added confidence of doing it again. And the coaches will have faith in their tactics which have rendered previous successes.

All this talk of maths is taking the romance out of sport. Breaks my heart to think Bob Champion winning the National was just variance.

A beautifully written post.

But alas almost complete bollocks.

Is Manchester more hostile than Turkey, Serbia or Greece?

Is the weather worse than in Poland, Russia or Austria?

The only part which has any credibility is the Yaya reference which is dealt with by the fact Barca are a bigger price than normal v English teams.

How does a team managed by Jose Mouhrihno having success stopping Messi affect Neil Lennon's Celtic having success?

If you honestly believe Messi has sleepless night before playing a British team because of his lack of success in the past, I despair for you.

I think what makes it a beautifully written post is that it just presents my view is a healthy positive way. It doesn't insult anyone and it doesn't despair for anyone.

[tikay]

For those that bet with Pinny, you may want to review your gambling arrangements.

http://www.lvrj.com/business/sports-book-director-for-cantor-gaming-arrested-175670521.html

Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert was arrested Wednesday in Las Vegas by state gaming agents in connection with a warrant filed by the district attorney in Queens County, N.Y.

Gaming and legal sources confirmed the charges involve PinnacleSports.com, one of the largest offshore sports wagering websites. Sources said agents for the website were arrested in several cities Wednesday.

Wowzer.

Is that the bombshell it appears to be?

[The Camel]

Just picking up on Camel's point about Messi having a run of not scoring against English teams being pure variance. Confidence and psychology play a big part in sport, and how people act and perform under different conditions isn't just ruled by the laws of mathematics, people are people. In all sports the participants will have favourite grounds/venues and bogey grounds where their performance will be predisposed to a certain level based on past performances. So if a golfer loves playing at Wentworth because he always seems to score well it follows that when he steps up to the first tee at Wentworth he will have heightened confidence based on those past performances. And if he always puts it in the bunker on the 10th psychology says he is predisposed to hit the bunker again. So my view is a run of any kind in sport shouldn't be dismissed. If a striker is on a barren run I would say he is less likely to score next game even though his overall stats say he is more likely to.

So let's say Messi hasn't scored in the last 10 games vs prem clubs and obv will only be facing the same top 4 clubs/players in the CL. When he touches down in Manchester on some cold December night, wind pissing in his face, aggro crowd, elbow in face from Yaya Toure first minute. The environment, the conditions, will be familiar with past unsuccessful trips and so his performance level is predisposed to drop. Basically if he thinks he doesn't like playing in England because he never scores (a view that manifests itself on a run of not scoring in England) then sure thing he is less likely to score on the next visit to England. Less likely than say going back to Deportivo with the sun on his back, wind in his hair, where he smashed in a hat-trick last week.

Not only that the defenders of the teams who have contained him before will have added confidence of doing it again. And the coaches will have faith in their tactics which have rendered previous successes.

All this talk of maths is taking the romance out of sport. Breaks my heart to think Bob Champion winning the National was just variance.

A beautifully written post.

But alas almost complete bollocks.

Is Manchester more hostile than Turkey, Serbia or Greece?

Is the weather worse than in Poland, Russia or Austria?

The only part which has any credibility is the Yaya reference which is dealt with by the fact Barca are a bigger price than normal v English teams.

How does a team managed by Jose Mouhrihno having success stopping Messi affect Neil Lennon's Celtic having success?

If you honestly believe Messi has sleepless night before playing a British team because of his lack of success in the past, I despair for you.

I think what makes it a beautifully written post is that it just presents my view is a healthy positive way. It doesn't insult anyone and it doesn't despair for anyone.

I don't despair for you as a person, I despair for you as a punter.