Tips for Tikay

[typhoon13]

Well done Mr Tightend. Would like to say excellent analysis but I didn't read it. Saw it was long and detailed. Knew it would be logical, saw 3-1 and invested.

+1

[bobby1]

I think there is an outstanding opportunity for value in the Europa League tonight

Athletico Bilbao v Olympique Lyonnais

Lyon are 3-1 in various spots

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/athl-bilbao-v-olympique-lyonnais/winner

I've had to research this one as I alighted on it from a value perspective rather than any great knowledge of either team


In their Europa League group

France Lyon    3    3    0    0    8    5    +3    9
Czech Republic Sparta Prague    3    2    0    1    7    4    +3    6
Israel Ironi Kiryat Shmona    3    0    1    3    5    8    −3    1
Spain Athletic Bilbao    3    0    1    2    3    6    −3    1

Bilbao lost in Lyon and Prague and drew to Ironi at home

Lyon are unbeaten

So why are Lyon 3-1?

I check the domestic records

Lyon are a point behind PSG at the top of Ligue 1 http://www.ligue1.com/club/olympique-lyonnais

Bilbao have won 3 of 10 in La Liga http://www.skysports.com/football/league/0,19540,11826,00.html

So why are Lyon 3-1?

Well Lyon need to win the group to avoid the big guns going forward. Although a draw might get them through tonight, a win moves them a long way to winning the group

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/live/match-commentary/278855/athletic-bilbao-v-lyon

I know Bilbao is a difficult place to go. I needed to look at their downturn in form this season after finishing Europa League and Copa Del Rey runners up last year

I alighted on this.

"Prior to the start of the 2012–13 season, Athletic went through a period of some turmoil. Having impressed many observers around the world with their play in the preceding campaign, all the top players (according to various media rumours) were now being examined by the top clubs in England, Italy and Germany who in some cases could offer higher wages and Champions League football, although qualification for this competition would obviously be the aim for Athletic as well. In particular, striker Fernando Llorente, whose contract was nearing its end, failed to agree a new deal due to his wage demands (allegedly far higher than the norm at the club, but less than some other top strikers in other leagues), and when his position became unstable, it emerged that fellow Spain international Javi Martinez would possibly also be wishing to leave. With the club's financial position relatively healthy and with few, if any, replacements available under their Basque signing policy, Athletic took a rigid stance on the matter, whereby no offers would be accepted by them and any players wishing to leave would have to meet their inflated contract buyout clause. Martinez did so, joining Bayern Munich before the transfer deadline after the player and the German club agreed a deal to finance the €40m release despite Athletic's refusal to co-operate. Llorente, however, failed to secure such a deal and remained an Athletic player at the close of the transfer window, in spite of the bad blood which had developed between him and the club management over the situation. Martinez and Llorente - arguably the most important players in the previous 5 seasons - had been forced to train apart from the other players and faced abuse from fans as they sought a move away, which did little to improve team harmony.

The situation was complicated further when Marcelo Bielsa had a major disagreement with the contractors working on improvements to the Lezama club training ground as he felt they were inadequate, overpriced and behind schedule, thereby undermining his pre-season preparations with the squad. The dispute deteriorated into a physical altercation with the site foreman, followed by Bielsa issuing a statement criticising the work - which the club hierarchy officially distanced themselves from. At one stage in the tense episode the Argentine coach appeared to have left his position, and although the matter was eventually resolved it was not the positive atmosphere the club desired as the start of the season approached. Experienced striker Aritz Aduriz returned (from Valencia CF for a third spell at Athletic, but former youth team forward Ismael López was the only other new signing. Along with the enforced sale of Javi Martinez, aging squad players Koikili, Igor Gabilondo and Aitor Ocio had departed at the start of the summer, and they were followed by winger David Lopez and defender Ustaritz; promising young players Jonas Ramalho and Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta seemed set to play a bigger role in their place.

With this backdrop of uncertainty, along with injuries to Aurtenetxte, Amorebieta, Ekiza, Herrera and Llorente, it was perhaps not surprising that Athletic began their season with some poor results. The possession football was not leading to enough goals scored without without the presence of Llorente, albeit Aduriz was proving a capable deputy, and the Bielsa tactic of using players regarded as midfielders in defence to boost the overall technique level of the team was seen to backfire somewhat as opponents created chances with alarming ease. In their first 8 competitive games (4 in La Liga and 4 in the Europa League preliminaries) Athletic scored 21 goals but conceded 18, however did manage to reach the Europa League groups leaving fans optimistic of another Autumn upturn in form."


So, not a happy ship

We have a French team in form against a Spanish team out of form, with dis-harmony leading to undeperformance

and what appears to be a value price

People might argue that all the above is known and factored into prices

In which case why are Lyon 3-1?


In the absence of counter-knowledge, recommend £30 Lyon at 3-1 for value.

 abs tremendous Rich, should be set up as a template for footy bets.

Great work.

[TheDazzler]

Mr Tightend sounds like a Charles Dickens character. Well done.

[ripple11]

Ty Mr. End.

 

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 8.10am, Friday November 9th

PROFIT on Month = £735.50

Unsettled Bets  - £517.50


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=14

[Tal]

Mr Tightend sounds like a Charles Dickens character. Well done.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way.

Pretty much sums up Fred!

[tikay]

Daily Report as at 8.45am, Friday November 9th

We turned a profit of £135 yesterday.

Two bets completed, both won.

Our Obama Electoral College wager has yet to be settled by Betfair, so has not been included.

Our two bets yesterday were on Anzhi to beat Liverpool (£45 profit, 77Dave) & Lyons to beat Bilbao (£90, Tighty), ditto.

The Lyons bet was a thing of beauty, but nearly got swerved. Tighty did one of his specials, building a case despite not knowing either team at first hand & I almost insta-bet it. horsey then suggested it might not be quite as good as it looked, & mentioned that he follows the Teams closely, & that he had serious doubts.

Now, wear my shoes for a moment. Here we have the only two Premier League Hall of Famers in the Football Quiz thing with opposing views. Those two lads know more about football than most of us put together, & have proven so again & again in Scotty’s excellent Football Quiz. What to do?

Redarmi came to the rescue, & decisively. “If Tighty sticks it up, I suggest you back it blind”. So we did.

As it turned out, the match was a real ding-dong affair, & we may have been a shade fortunate. In October, we yinged  & swinged when we should have yonged & swonged, but in November things are falling nicely for us  - so far. It can turn oh-so quickly though, & the profit is not burning a hole in our pocket.       

As for the Anzhi, well I’ve been banging on for ages that we should oppose Liverpool……

We missed a really good BTS in the ‘Spurs game, but it’s as hard as hell to sort the wheat from the chaff when “homers” stick their own Team up, no matter how well-intended it is. And anyway, Karabiner told me Spurs are shite, & you can’t get more objective than that. 

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Mr Tightend sounds like a Charles Dickens character. Well done.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way.

Pretty much sums up Fred!

Just a bit.

Which one is Tighty, in that cast of Dickens Characters I have Posted? And other regulars you recognize there?

[hector62]

Morning Mr T. I am not sure about Mr Tightend but I have a horrible feeling I may be Scrooge. I really must get round to reading more of Dickens, his invention of characters is  simply wonderful. I had Great Expectations forced upon me for O level and can still recall large parts of it.

I can't help but notice Fred's change in  fortune coincided with my blood donation. We need more people to do likewise to keep the run good going. Plus you get such a feeling of righteousness afterwards that money just can't buy, and biscuits which are like small dry cakes.

[Tal]

The artful dodger is described as "as dirty a juvenile as one would wish to see, but with all the airs and manners of a man"

Abel Magwitch said to Pip in Great Expectations: "Yes, Pip, dear boy, I've made a gentleman on you! It's me wot has done it! I swore that time, sure as I ever earned a guinea, that guinea should go to you"

Hopefully no one is a Bill Sykes or Daniel Quilp...

[Tal]

Never been a big Dickens fan, but I do appreciate his brilliance, if that makes sense. Linguistically, I have always preferred Thomas Hardy.

[david3103]

Can't help but think that we are ALL Mr Micawber

[superwomble]

My rather small claim to fame is that Charles Dickens is my great great great great great uncle, a number of times removed.

I like his work, and did before I found out that info!

[rfgqqabc]

Never been a big Dickens fan, but I do appreciate his brilliance, if that makes sense. Linguistically, I have always preferred Thomas Hardy.

Read a few chapters of a Thomas hardy book in my a levels and a good chunk of tess of the d'urberVille's and I was about inspired as my primary school dinner lady.

The level of sophistication on this forum never ceases to amaze me, really puts 2+2 into perspective!

P.s thread upswing is due to lack of following lately!

[DungBeetle]

Del Potro won last night to get us back in with a small snifff in the tennis.  Likely has to beat Rog on Saturday(?) to get through though.

Not sure what happens if he loses to Fed and Ferrer loses to Tipsarevic.  Guess it will be game difference in which case the 6-0 set for Delpo last night may help us.  But we have to assume Ferrer will beat Tipsarevic in any case.