Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

We are on San Francisdco 49-ers @ -3.

[tikay]

Bears           7

[tikay]

49ers              32

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0755, Tuesday November 20th

PROFIT on Month = £809.50


Unsettled Bets  - £723.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=14

[Tal]

That looks positive

[tikay]

If you follow Fred, please visit this thread......


http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=59552.new#new

[tikay]

Can I ask what the trouble behind the scenes at Stevenage is Chompy?

In the top ten, been steady enough since Westley left. Nothing to indicate they are massively on the slide

I can see Bournemouth at 4/5 with their huge pick up on form since Howe re-arrived but the tone of Chompy's posts on Stevenage suggests there's more to it.

I'd be interested in the answer to that, too.

Stats can be very deceptive, but that is all I have to go on.

Stevenage have won 3 of their last 6.

Stevenage have lost their last 2.

Stevenage have lost 3 of their last 4, shipping 12 goals in the process.

Stevenage have the 2nd best away record in the division - 9 games have yielded 6 wins & a draw.

All a bit confusing at face value.

I so nearly placed this bet last night, & will almost certainly do so today (though I prefer the straight win @ 4/5), but Stevenage, on the face of it, look a potent force away from home.

Bournemouth remain 4/5 in one spot, so I need to get on within the next few hours.

Stevenage, meanwhile, 5 points better than Bournemouth, & with 6 away wins, are 4/1.......

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/bournemouth-v-stevenage/winner

So, what does Chompy know that we don't?

[AndrewT]

So, what does Chompy know that we don't?

Is that not the eternal question?

[class]

Tonight Juventus face Chelsea in the Champions League, and the referee is Cuneyt Çakir. For those who don't know of him, he is very strict and card happy. He is the referee that sent off John Terry against Barcelona last year.

His stats for 2012/13 can be found here:-

http://worldreferee.com/site/copy.php?linkID=565

Taking the seven games from this season, he has issued 3 red cards and 40 yellow cards. That works out as 0.43 red cards a game, and 5.71 yellow cards a game. The average is brought down slightly by the two games were he only issued 2 yellow cards, but this obviously cannot be ignored.

Looking at the odds, and this is where I look for the experts views, is where the value (if any lies). The odds that standout to me are:-

Stanley James over 56 booking points at 11/8
Ladbrokes over 55 booking points at 11/10 (I know Stan is better, but just listing as an observation)
Ladbrokes 55-75 booking points at 12/5

Does anybody have any opinions of this?

[hector62]

Morning Mr T. I am so very annoyed with myself. Having gone for low corners in the West Ham game, the writing was on the wall, I was looking at the odds at half time to get my money back and found an excellent spot. I had just backed it myself and was about to post when the 6 man super turbo SNG popped up. My addled brain and fat fingers can't multi task one of those bad boys and by the time it was over the opportunity had gone.

It caused me a troubled night and the frustration won't go away until I find another winning tip for you. So this mornings bowls match Smith v Stone .....  just kidding on that bit I haven't become that much of a degen yet despite what Doobs wrote.

[tikay]

So, what does Chompy know that we don't?

Is that not the eternal question?

I know a lot of things you don't........

[tikay]

Tonight Juventus face Chelsea in the Champions League, and the referee is Cuneyt Çakir. For those who don't know of him, he is very strict and card happy. He is the referee that sent off John Terry against Barcelona last year.

His stats for 2012/13 can be found here:-

http://worldreferee.com/site/copy.php?linkID=565

Taking the seven games from this season, he has issued 3 red cards and 40 yellow cards. That works out as 0.43 red cards a game, and 5.71 yellow cards a game. The average is brought down slightly by the two games were he only issued 2 yellow cards, but this obviously cannot be ignored.

Looking at the odds, and this is where I look for the experts views, is where the value (if any lies). The odds that standout to me are:-

Stanley James over 56 booking points at 11/8
Ladbrokes over 55 booking points at 11/10 (I know Stan is better, but just listing as an observation)
Ladbrokes 55-75 booking points at 12/5

Does anybody have any opinions of this?

Wow, he is card mad!

I initially thought the Ladbrokes 55-75 (12/5) was the value, but having viewed that link, we could not do that as this Referee could easily exceed 75 points.

horsey is pretty clued up on Referee Stats, but he is not around at the moment.

I'd be interested in views, but at present, a dabble with Stan James (over 56 @ 11/8) looks worth a small investment.

Thanks. 

[tikay]

Morning Mr T. I am so very annoyed with myself. Having gone for low corners in the West Ham game, the writing was on the wall, I was looking at the odds at half time to get my money back and found an excellent spot. I had just backed it myself and was about to post when the 6 man super turbo SNG popped up. My addled brain and fat fingers can't multi task one of those bad boys and by the time it was over the opportunity had gone.

It caused me a troubled night and the frustration won't go away until I find another winning tip for you. So this mornings bowls match Smith v Stone .....  just kidding on that bit I haven't become that much of a degen yet despite what Doobs wrote.

Tut tut hector, you are a betting degen these days.

I was in a weird spot last night too.

I had spent a good while yesterday studying the corner market in the West Ham game & like claypole, I thought unders were most likely, but I did not like the price, so I went a different route - "2nd half most corners".

claypole then stuck his bet up, very late, but I could not get Fred on, as we we don't bet with 365, & the Bet Victor price was no good.

At Half Time, there were 5 corners, & claypole needed a maximum of 10. Meanwhile, I thought my bet was dead, there was little chance of over 5 in the 2nd half. One of us HAD to lose........

Strange how these things turn out.

I hope you were on Kuku's NFL bet though.   

[hector62]

Home team, and arguably the better team, a goal behind. 5 corners in 1st half I knew my under 11 corners was a goner and thought over 12 easily. I was going to propose the draw at 12/5. After the goal the price fell to evens and I felt bad for the rest of the match despite being ahead.

I was on San Fran as well but had it in a double with a basketball game which of course lost. Does anyone really win betting that sport?

How do you fancy India for the 2nd test at 4-1 ?

[tikay]

Home team, and arguably the better team, a goal behind. 5 corners in 1st half I knew my under 11 corners was a goner and thought over 12 easily. I was going to propose the draw at 12/5. After the goal the price fell to evens and I felt bad for the rest of the match despite being ahead.

I was on San Fran as well but had it in a double with a basketball game which of course lost. Does anyone really win betting that sport?

How do you fancy India for the 2nd test at 4-1 ?

4/1?

Talk to us........

PS - you had the NFL bet, but stuck it in a doiuble with a basketball bet?

You are a very brave man. Singles for the Nits.