Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Tonight Juventus face Chelsea in the Champions League, and the referee is Cuneyt Çakir. For those who don't know of him, he is very strict and card happy. He is the referee that sent off John Terry against Barcelona last year.

His stats for 2012/13 can be found here:-

http://worldreferee.com/site/copy.php?linkID=565

Taking the seven games from this season, he has issued 3 red cards and 40 yellow cards. That works out as 0.43 red cards a game, and 5.71 yellow cards a game. The average is brought down slightly by the two games were he only issued 2 yellow cards, but this obviously cannot be ignored.

Looking at the odds, and this is where I look for the experts views, is where the value (if any lies). The odds that standout to me are:-

Stanley James over 56 booking points at 11/8
Ladbrokes over 55 booking points at 11/10 (I know Stan is better, but just listing as an observation)
Ladbrokes 55-75 booking points at 12/5

Does anybody have any opinions of this?

Wow, he is card mad!

I initially thought the Ladbrokes 55-75 (12/5) was the value, but having viewed that link, we could not do that as this Referee could easily exceed 75 points.

horsey is pretty clued up on Referee Stats, but he is not around at the moment.

I'd be interested in views, but at present, a dabble with Stan James (over 56 @ 11/8) looks worth a small investment.

Thanks. 

We have a lot of stats, why are we just looking at 7 of them?  If we take it back to 2010 it isn't nearly so favourable; we beat 55 15 times in 34.  Though 11/8 still beats this, it becomes more marginal.

I wouldn't look twice at something like 55-75.  Not only should we assume the bookies model points distributions better than us, we should also assume they add an extra margin in stuff like this.  Unless there is evidence of the person proposing the bet knowing more about the distribution than the bookie, we should avoid any bets on points ranges at all. Here I am thinking of AndrewT's(?) excellent analysis of the voting by state in the US election rather than someone just saying under 30 or other 50 are very unlikely.

I am not talking about over/under bets here, just those where we start betting ranges.

Doobs

[hector62]

If it is an overnight bet and I will not be watching it I bet very small fun amounts and am happy for doubles, to make the squeeze worthwhile. I would bet that Mr Tightend will be able to figure my 4-1 for India to kinda win the 2nd test.

[redsimon]

If it is an overnight bet and I will not be watching it I bet very small fun amounts and am happy for doubles, to make the squeeze worthwhile. I would bet that Mr Tightend will be able to figure my 4-1 for India to kinda win the 2nd test.

confused India are 10/11??

[tikay]

If it is an overnight bet and I will not be watching it I bet very small fun amounts and am happy for doubles, to make the squeeze worthwhile. I would bet that Mr Tightend will be able to figure my 4-1 for India to kinda win the 2nd test.

confused India are 10/11??

I suspect a hector riddle......

[Killerkilsby]

I like Chelsea tonight and think there is value!
They had a mis click at the weekend against West Brom but rested Mata and Ivanovic (although Mata subbed on) for most of the game who have been 2 of their outstanding players this term aswel as Oscar.
Tonight they play Juventus knowing that a loss would put them in 3rd place with 1 game to go and a very awkward last round tie. A win guarentees progression.

This is a must win game for the blues and their manager to take the pressure off, hence the resting of players with this game in mind.

Juventus have Vucinic out who is one of their main threats, and despite the home advantage i can't see how they are odds on favourites. They drew to lazio at home at the weekend fwiw.

So to the price i expected to see Chelsea around 3.2, however you can currently back at 4.7 on betfair.

This to my mind is VALUE

Reccomend at least £30 at 4.7 with betfair

[tikay]

I like Chelsea tonight and think there is value!
They had a mis click at the weekend against West Brom but rested Mata and Ivanovic (although Mata subbed on) for most of the game who have been 2 of their outstanding players this term aswel as Oscar.
Tonight they play Juventus knowing that a loss would put them in 3rd place with 1 game to go and a very awkward last round tie. A win guarentees progression.

This is a must win game for the blues and their manager to take the pressure off, hence the resting of players with this game in mind.

Juventus have Vucinic out who is one of their main threats, and despite the home advantage i can't see how they are odds on favourites. They drew to lazio at home at the weekend fwiw.

So to the price i expected to see Chelsea around 3.2, however you can currently back at 4.7 on betfair.

This to my mind is VALUE

Reccomend at least £30 at 4.7 with betfair

Thanks Killer.

I looked at that myself, but I don't know enough about Juve to comment really.

FWIW, this is the BBC preview.....


http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/20308128

[youthnkzR]

I like Chelsea tonight and think there is value!
They had a mis click at the weekend against West Brom but rested Mata and Ivanovic (although Mata subbed on) for most of the game who have been 2 of their outstanding players this term aswel as Oscar.
Tonight they play Juventus knowing that a loss would put them in 3rd place with 1 game to go and a very awkward last round tie. A win guarentees progression.

This is a must win game for the blues and their manager to take the pressure off, hence the resting of players with this game in mind.

Juventus have Vucinic out who is one of their main threats, and despite the home advantage i can't see how they are odds on favourites. They drew to lazio at home at the weekend fwiw.

So to the price i expected to see Chelsea around 3.2, however you can currently back at 4.7 on betfair.

This to my mind is VALUE

Reccomend at least £30 at 4.7 with betfair

also agreed there is massive value here.

[tikay]

I like Chelsea tonight and think there is value!
They had a mis click at the weekend against West Brom but rested Mata and Ivanovic (although Mata subbed on) for most of the game who have been 2 of their outstanding players this term aswel as Oscar.
Tonight they play Juventus knowing that a loss would put them in 3rd place with 1 game to go and a very awkward last round tie. A win guarentees progression.

This is a must win game for the blues and their manager to take the pressure off, hence the resting of players with this game in mind.

Juventus have Vucinic out who is one of their main threats, and despite the home advantage i can't see how they are odds on favourites. They drew to lazio at home at the weekend fwiw.

So to the price i expected to see Chelsea around 3.2, however you can currently back at 4.7 on betfair.

This to my mind is VALUE

Reccomend at least £30 at 4.7 with betfair

also agreed there is massive value here.

Yes, possibly. I'm very tempted by the price, but I've seen nothing that proves it is value yet.

We had some spectacular wins on Chelsea in the CL last season thanks to Doobsy, who seems to be a bit of a Chelsea specialist, so hopefully his view will be incoming soon.

This may assist......


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/juventus-v-chelsea/winner

[Doobs]

I like Chelsea tonight and think there is value!
They had a mis click at the weekend against West Brom but rested Mata and Ivanovic (although Mata subbed on) for most of the game who have been 2 of their outstanding players this term aswel as Oscar.
Tonight they play Juventus knowing that a loss would put them in 3rd place with 1 game to go and a very awkward last round tie. A win guarentees progression.

This is a must win game for the blues and their manager to take the pressure off, hence the resting of players with this game in mind.

Juventus have Vucinic out who is one of their main threats, and despite the home advantage i can't see how they are odds on favourites. They drew to lazio at home at the weekend fwiw.

So to the price i expected to see Chelsea around 3.2, however you can currently back at 4.7 on betfair.

This to my mind is VALUE

Reccomend at least £30 at 4.7 with betfair

also agreed there is massive value here.

Now 4.8.   Not a Chelsea specialist, just saw a good run of form last season.  They aren't there this season, though I think West Brom are a very decent side.  4.8 seems to be almost a Baaannnnzzzzzaaaaiiii for a few quid for old times sake.  Apologies for the lack of supporting evidence, as I am sure you were expecting better, but going out.

[hector62]

In the champions league group games I like to back teams who have to win and Juve / Chelsea is certainly a must win game. It positively eeks of a sending off fest too.

[tikay]

Daily Report as at 12.25pm, Tuesday November 20th

We turned a £20 profit yesterday.

Might not seem much, but beautifully efficient – one bet, one win, £20 banked. Do that every day for a year & we’d be looking at over £7,000. Easy game. Maybe.

Our sole bet was on the 49ers v Bears, we had the 49ers @ -3, & they cruised home by 25 points.

Even more impressive, this was that rarest of beasts, four winners in a row by the owner of the bet, Kuku.

Congrats Mr Kuku.

Click to see full-size image.

Stand-in QB Colin Kaepernick, debuting I believe, & standing in for Alex Smith, had a dream game, passing for 243 yards & two TD’s whilst Jason Campbell had a miserable night, being sacked 5 times. Note that Kuku had Posted…..

"....I think Fred should have a small bet on San Fran -3. I think they´ll have the better of things running it and Campbell will really struggle against this defence. It´s enough for me to justify a small bet......"

This was backing up a similar point made by Bobby, who, rumour has it, was on the same result, too.

Tonight, we will probably be having small bets on Bournemouth (Chompy) & quite possibly a Bookings in the Juventus – Chelsea CL affair (class).

We just need to try & keep that November profit north of the £800 resistance point, whilst we patiently await the occasional MAX.


  

 

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[TightEnd]

The Chelsea game is a bit trappy isn't it? It looks a good price but...

Chelsea end at home to FC Nordsjaelland, and Juventus need to win tonight, badly as they end at Shakhtar, and can't realistically expect to win there if required

Pretty sure Chelsea would take a draw here and now

In the home tie they stuck Oscar on Pirlo, and would expect similar tonight. 

[tikay]

In the champions league group games I like to back teams who have to win and Juve / Chelsea is certainly a must win game. It positively eeks of a sending off fest too.

I think the problem is that BOTH teams "must win", is it not?

I reaaly like the Chelsea price, & as Doobs mentioned, they have served us well, so maybe a Mini-Banzai, but I'm just not sure the game warrants a bigger bet on the result.

I remain interested in the Bookings bet, too.

Decisions decisions........

When in doubt, don't, I suppose.

[TightEnd]

Benfica v Celtic

I recall there were a couple of Celtic bets in previous CL rounds thread missed

They are 13-2 to win in Portgual, you can get 7/2 the draw

You could get 16/1 Samaras 1st goalscorer I noticed

Any love for Celtic doing something again tonight from Snowball, Teacake and crew?

A draw virtually sends them through (they end home to Spartak, Benfica go to Barca to end the group)

Prices look attractive.

[TightEnd]

In the champions league group games I like to back teams who have to win and Juve / Chelsea is certainly a must win game. It positively eeks of a sending off fest too.

I think the problem is that BOTH teams "must win", is it not?

I reaaly like the Chelsea price, & as Doobs mentioned, they have served us well, so maybe a Mini-Banzai, but I'm just not sure the game warrants a bigger bet on the result.

I remain interested in the Bookings bet, too.

Decisions decisions........

When in doubt, don't, I suppose.

Chelsea don't need to win at all. Juventus need the win, badly