Tips for Tikay

[Sheriff Fatman]

First post on this thread, but just spotted Marcus Tudgay's odds for first/last/anytime scorer in today's match vs Cardiff.

Most places he's 6/1 or 7/1 for first / last goalscorer.  Corals have him at 25/1, BetVictor have him at 22/1
Anytime scorer is similar.  8/1 at Coral, 6/1 at BetVictor instead of 15/8, 7/4, etc.

He's a striker / winger who I'd expect to be in the starting line up today, yet he's a bigger price than holding midfielders and players who'll be lucky to get on the bench (e.g. Kelvin Etuhu).

I don't know much about sports betting, but I know that this is wrong!

Thanks Curtis, & welcome aboard.

We like to give Fred newbies a "free shot" if the bet is anything like, & this looks "like", so I'll get on shortly.

I'm not sure of the mechanics of "First" v "Anytime", & every time I do it, someone pops up afterwards & tells me there was a better way to do it, but I'll take a chance & get on in a bit.

As President of League Nit, I have to ask you, what would you recommend - £5 on each, or £10 on each?

Clearly worth more.

Whatever you put on First Goalscorer, double the bet onto anytime

Something like £10 Coral £25 then £20 any time 8/1 Coral


Ask Curtis if he would like to back Scott Wiseman too.

I'm unclear if Tighty is serious, or if that is a football supporters in-joke.....

Mr Wiseman appears to be as high as 50/1, or even 66/1 with SkyBet.

 

in joke

Mr Wiseman is a centre half of dubious footballing ability

Scott Wiseman is Keith Hill's lovechild judging by his immunity to being dropped (and also captain for some reason).

If there's a market for first lost marker leading to a goal against, lump on at any price!

[tikay]

Not sure what Fred thinks of what I think is potentially a good back to lay opportunity?
Every time the Pipe stable get a decent 3 mile novice chaser it gets talked up as a potential Gold Cup horse following his unlucky attempt to win the GC with Gloria Victis.
Last year Grand Crus was backed into single figures I recall,but in the end sense prevailed. However, it didn't stop plenty of people investing.
This year Dynaste looks to be following the same path, and looked mighty impressive to me at Cheltenham, when beating a previous 2nd coming in Fingal Bay.
With the same stable having Our Father also talked of as a possible Sun Alliance horse, and the aforementioned Grand Cru looking very much a non stayer, if Dynaste keeps up this improvement it is inevitable at some stage he will be talked up.
I have yet to find a bookie quoting him in Gold Cup lists but betfair have enough liquidity for Fred to stick a tenner on at odds over 300-1, which at some point given natural progression, is sure to be layable at some point.
A long game opportunity, but sure it will bear fruit.

Hi Adz,

We got £5 matched at 380, but it seems the other £5 did not get matched, thanks to Mere's eagle eyes moniroring my Betfair prowess. .

Shall we leave it at a fiver, or would you suggest trying to get another fiver at shorter odds?

TBH Tikay, to me the value was in the price. In what looks like it could be a strong Gold Cup year, It was a bet at 300s+ based on the fact he could easily get talked into 20s with a couple of good displays, offering a good chance to lay it off. At 200s the margins are somewhat shorter for all the pieces to fall into place. £5 is sufficient for my Newbie bet!

Agreed. We are very happy, what fun for a fiver!

[Doobs]

Not sure what Fred thinks of what I think is potentially a good back to lay opportunity?
Every time the Pipe stable get a decent 3 mile novice chaser it gets talked up as a potential Gold Cup horse following his unlucky attempt to win the GC with Gloria Victis.
Last year Grand Crus was backed into single figures I recall,but in the end sense prevailed. However, it didn't stop plenty of people investing.
This year Dynaste looks to be following the same path, and looked mighty impressive to me at Cheltenham, when beating a previous 2nd coming in Fingal Bay.
With the same stable having Our Father also talked of as a possible Sun Alliance horse, and the aforementioned Grand Cru looking very much a non stayer, if Dynaste keeps up this improvement it is inevitable at some stage he will be talked up.
I have yet to find a bookie quoting him in Gold Cup lists but betfair have enough liquidity for Fred to stick a tenner on at odds over 300-1, which at some point given natural progression, is sure to be layable at some point.
A long game opportunity, but sure it will bear fruit.

Hi Adz,

We got £5 matched at 380, but it seems the other £5 did not get matched, thanks to Mere's eagle eyes moniroring my Betfair prowess. .

Shall we leave it at a fiver, or would you suggest trying to get another fiver at shorter odds?

TBH Tikay, to me the value was in the price. In what looks like it could be a strong Gold Cup year, It was a bet at 300s+ based on the fact he could easily get talked into 20s with a couple of good displays, offering a good chance to lay it off. At 200s the margins are somewhat shorter for all the pieces to fall into place. £5 is sufficient for my Newbie bet!

Agreed. We are very happy, what fun for a fiver!

Take the remaining fiver off.  One thing you can be certain of on Betfair is that somebody else will know it is a non runner before you.  I have found out my horse is a non runner this way too many times!

[tikay]

Not sure what Fred thinks of what I think is potentially a good back to lay opportunity?
Every time the Pipe stable get a decent 3 mile novice chaser it gets talked up as a potential Gold Cup horse following his unlucky attempt to win the GC with Gloria Victis.
Last year Grand Crus was backed into single figures I recall,but in the end sense prevailed. However, it didn't stop plenty of people investing.
This year Dynaste looks to be following the same path, and looked mighty impressive to me at Cheltenham, when beating a previous 2nd coming in Fingal Bay.
With the same stable having Our Father also talked of as a possible Sun Alliance horse, and the aforementioned Grand Cru looking very much a non stayer, if Dynaste keeps up this improvement it is inevitable at some stage he will be talked up.
I have yet to find a bookie quoting him in Gold Cup lists but betfair have enough liquidity for Fred to stick a tenner on at odds over 300-1, which at some point given natural progression, is sure to be layable at some point.
A long game opportunity, but sure it will bear fruit.

Hi Adz,

We got £5 matched at 380, but it seems the other £5 did not get matched, thanks to Mere's eagle eyes moniroring my Betfair prowess. .

Shall we leave it at a fiver, or would you suggest trying to get another fiver at shorter odds?

TBH Tikay, to me the value was in the price. In what looks like it could be a strong Gold Cup year, It was a bet at 300s+ based on the fact he could easily get talked into 20s with a couple of good displays, offering a good chance to lay it off. At 200s the margins are somewhat shorter for all the pieces to fall into place. £5 is sufficient for my Newbie bet!

Agreed. We are very happy, what fun for a fiver!

Take the remaining fiver off.  One thing you can be certain of on Betfair is that somebody else will know it is a non runner before you.  I have found out my horse is a non runner this way too many times!

Thanks Doobs, am about to do exactly that.

Mere queried it with me this morning, "did you get the whole £10 matched?", which was polite code for "take it off, it makes no sense to leave it there".

[tikay]

Daily Summary as at 10.25m, Saturday 24th November

We made a very pleasing profit of £70 yesterday.

Three little bets, each of £5 on the same Event, & we needed one to get home, any others would be a bonus.

It was the 16/1 shot that did the business, “No First Tryscorer”, for an £80 profit, or £70 net. Hector strikes again with another of his quirky things, & the celebration cake is doubtless in the frying pan as we speak.

November’s profit now stands at £847.  We have some chunky stuff on the go today, but if they all go wrong, we’ll still be in decent shape. Tighty will do the Cricket Report shortly, but overall, I think we are doing OK in that, especially as Hadrian finished with an amazing 135.

Name the Railway Station. (Topical).

Name the racecourse. More local than topical.

The Coach has no relevance to anything. I just liked the photo.


   

Click to see full-size image.

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[TightEnd]

England v South Africa at Twickenham

Should be a very tight attritional affair with goal kicks deciding it

Its windy, rainy and cold.

South Africa are renowned for defence

England have made six changes, with an accent on strengthening their defence (eg a second full back on the wing, Ben Youngs at scrum half for box kicks and general solidity,)

South Africa on the handicap , you can get 10/11 straight with BetVictor. Given the respective sides, their form and current development I have South Africa as 3-5 point favourites.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/autumn-internationals/england-v-south-africa/handicaps

So with the sides being priced at -1,0,+1 on the h/cap, if we fancy S Africa we might as well avail ourselves of Evens with Ladbrokes

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/autumn-internationals/england-v-south-africa/winner

South Africa won by 4 points on a bad day in Dublin, and by 11 on a bad day in Edinburgh


If the sides are that close, then Boylesports 20-1 on the draw (in before Hector) is in play also, This is of course what happened in Port Elizabeth in the final summer test, which ended 14-14 in Jnue


Recommend

£30 SA at Evens Ladbrokes

£5 the draw 20-1 Boylesports

[hector62]

I can't find any fault with your analysis Mr Tightend, at least you had the grace to leave my drop goal bet alone. South Africa look good for short spells, big and physical and this England bunch are not up to much at all with only 1 world class player in Tuillagi. With a converted centre playing hooker the likes of Probyn, Moore and Rendall must be dumbfounded.

[tikay]

Thanks Rich.

I can confirm the weather is wet - very wet, cold & thoroughly miserable & overcast.

It has rained all week except yesterday, more rain last night, & still raining now, the Thames is at near flood level, so the pitch won't be nice.

I shall, unless counter arguments arise shortly, get on South Africa at that tempting operand. 

[TightEnd]

I forgot Hector's drop goal bet!

That must be a runner too....

Over to Mr Kipling.

[tikay]

England v South Africa at Twickenham

Should be a very tight attritional affair with goal kicks deciding it

Its windy, rainy and cold.

South Africa are renowned for defence

England have made six changes, with an accent on strengthening their defence (eg a second full back on the wing, Ben Youngs at scrum half for box kicks and general solidity,)

South Africa on the handicap , you can get 10/11 straight with BetVictor. Given the respective sides, their form and current development I have South Africa as 3-5 point favourites.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/autumn-internationals/england-v-south-africa/handicaps

So with the sides being priced at -1,0,+1 on the h/cap, if we fancy S Africa we might as well avail ourselves of Evens with Ladbrokes

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/autumn-internationals/england-v-south-africa/winner

South Africa won by 4 points on a bad day in Dublin, and by 11 on a bad day in Edinburgh


If the sides are that close, then Boylesports 20-1 on the draw (in before Hector) is in play also, This is of course what happened in Port Elizabeth in the final summer test, which ended 14-14 in Jnue


Recommend

£30 SA at Evens Ladbrokes

£5 the draw 20-1 Boylesports

Thanks Rich.

We have £30 @ Evens, Ladbrokes, on South Africa.

£5 @ 20/1 the Draw (patent pending, hector) with Boyles. The Draw @ 20/1 is "+1", but I'm unclear which way the +1 is. If we want the draw @ "Level", it is 18/1 best. Shall I chuck another £5 at the "non-handicap" Draw? Bit confused here.


ON


Selectionevens - South Africa

EventEngland v South Africa International Matches

MarketMatch betting
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - South Africa
1 line at £30.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £30.00
Potential Return: £60.00
Time: 24/11/12 10:44
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000191


Bet ref: 55/56£5.00 Single
Market Selection Hcp Price
England vs. South Africa
Match Handicap Draw +1 20/1
Total stake £5.00
Estimated return £105.00

Full stake £5.00
Full Estimated return £105.00

[TightEnd]

"£5 @ 20/1 the Draw (patent pending, hector) with Boyles. The Draw @ 20/1 is "+1", but I'm unclear which way the +1 is. If we want the draw @ "Level", it is 18/1 best. Shall I chuck another £5 at the "non-handicap" Draw? Bit confused here. "


I am unclear as to what the +1 means! Thought we would be backing the straight draw....

[Doobs]

I assume you gave backed South Africa to win by one by backing the handicap draw

[Tal]

The Che Guevara Derby

Ireland - Argentina is always a brutal affair and now that both teams are fighting for World Cup seeding places, it could be an even more tense encounter.

Ireland have lost 5 on the bounce although three of those were against New Zealand and one South Africa. They've only scored two tries in that time.

Argentina joined the Tri Nations tournament this year and look a much more competitive, wily side than previously seen. Big news for them is they welcome Hernandez back to the 15 shirt.

Argentina have never won on Irish soil but beat Wales a fortnight ago in Cardiff and will come into this game brimming with confidence.

I have just had a look at the handicap market and the Even money line is set at 5 by Bet365 and Paddy Power (ie, Argentina +5) but at 6 by Ladbrokes and Hills.

I imagine 3 and 7 are the lines that really matter but I don't see this being a high scoring game and despite the fact that no rain is predicted in Dublin, I see the Pumas staying in touch. Looks to me to be a boot match.

Does hector62, TightEnd or anyone else see Argentina +6 at Evs as a price?

[Doobs]

Insert massive ice cream picture in above post

[TightEnd]

It is a fascinating Test Match


First things first Pujara was finally dismissed for 135

He has 382 series runs, 210 ahead of his nearest challenger Sehwag

A fly in the ointment, and a bit of worry considering Pujara went 1/19 in running for Hector's series bet, is that Pujara is now off injured having got a whack when fielding


For the Test overall, the 100 run partnership between Cook and KP has put the match well and truly in the balance. Tomorrow monring pretty crucial. India need wickets or else they may be staring at a first innigns deficit, which would be a huge turn up

However so far this match Parmesan Tony and Swann have comprehensively outbowled Ashwin, Harbhajan and to a lesser extent Ojha.

Looking at the odds, India 11/10, England 2/1 reflects that England have to bat last, and probably some lingering scepticism that should a wicket fall, the middle order will find it much tougher coming in on this pitch

All hail Alistair Cook, meanwile, smiter of value top England batter bets the world over.