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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16575566 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #21750 on: November 28, 2012, 10:16:02 AM »

Neil

"I wouldn't bet 1/4 that the next 20 12x football bets win. I wouldn't bet 4/7 and be happy.

 This is not to say that people don't know enough about football - they are just playing a game that is WAY harder to win."

How far does this extend. All of English football? League 1 and 2 included?

Premiership and Championship, sure, but you believe lower league English football is totally efficiently priced?

Not sure I do.
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« Reply #21751 on: November 28, 2012, 10:18:40 AM »

Neil

"I wouldn't bet 1/4 that the next 20 12x football bets win. I wouldn't bet 4/7 and be happy.

 This is not to say that people don't know enough about football - they are just playing a game that is WAY harder to win."

How far does this extend. All of English football? League 1 and 2 included?

Premiership and Championship, sure, but you believe lower league English football is totally efficiently priced?

Not sure I do.

Also Scottish footy?
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« Reply #21752 on: November 28, 2012, 10:22:29 AM »

What is the origin of the term ice cream in punting speak?
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« Reply #21753 on: November 28, 2012, 10:25:00 AM »

I'm afraid I can't take any credit for the Watford tip yesterday as I've been sunk at work.

Definitely we are a team to keep onside over the next few months though as our massive squad will come into play as other teams are hit by injuries.  We lost our best player Abdi to injury at Leeds, and there was another exotic replacement to come straight in!

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« Reply #21754 on: November 28, 2012, 10:26:31 AM »

Hi Tighty, You're right of course - I am slightly over-simplifying to illustrate a point. Of course the odds-compliers on the footy are just as rushed and they can't be watching every Rotherham away game and reading every Lincoln City website. However, they have a massive thing that does their job for them in the Asian market.

 We know that is very beatable, that is why Tony Bloom is so rich.

 We can also beat that if we stick to fundamnetal principles. It has been established here many times that we won't beat it by saying this lot are better than them because they won their last two and they are 4th bottom. If it was that easy we would all be as rich as Tony.

 I don't dispute we can have an edge in all football - may stats show me making good money just betting on the premier, and I know very little about football, I couldn't name three players in more than four teams. We can do it by taking advantage of market bias, we can think outside the box and win but with the averages on darts playing against a young kid who doesn't remember when the BDO split from the PDC I want to be on Dubai every day of the week for the absolute max against firms like Betfred, Stan James and BlueSq who literally cannot win this battle.
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« Reply #21755 on: November 28, 2012, 10:28:34 AM »

ice cream freezer=geezer in rhyming slang. No idea why.

 Geezer is a kind of a good thing now. More like he's a bit of a lad or a dude. It was always derogatory twenty years or more ago, more like he's a wally or a bit of a numpty.
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« Reply #21756 on: November 28, 2012, 10:38:04 AM »

ice cream freezer=geezer in rhyming slang. No idea why.

 Geezer is a kind of a good thing now. More like he's a bit of a lad or a dude. It was always derogatory twenty years or more ago, more like he's a wally or a bit of a numpty.

Well you learn something new every day. Lived in south London for a fair bit of my life and never heard this. Convinced myself it was something to do with melting away cash..

Tks for the explanation.
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« Reply #21757 on: November 28, 2012, 10:43:44 AM »

 I find Steve Palmer in the Racing Post quite interesting. I love to read his Sunday diary but it is a car crash in writing. We all know he is a sick, addicted gambler who will inevitably go broke. There is an argument to say that the column should not be allowed and a responsible newspaper would not allow a man to ruin his life in front of us for our amusement. There is also an argument that people shouldn't smoke.

 I think what is obvious from the Steve Palmer column is that he will lose at football. I would take 1/4 that he has a losing year on football in 2013 if he has as many bets as he had this year.

 I think most people think he is pretty good at golf betting though. Maybe he has been lucky but he seems to work harder than anyone else I've seen writing about golf betting and he's ran pretty well with some big-priced winners.

 Is his method for picking golf bets much different to that in football? I don't really think so. He thinks about recent form, history, the odds, course form etc etc in both but in one it feels like he's certain to lose while the other I wouldn't mind following his bets.

 Is it that he doesn't work hard enough on footy? Is he looking at football with no real in-depth knowledge and any deep-digging that he does use in golf? Is it that he has greater experience of golf and that comes into play?

 I'm not sure but it may just tell me that golf is easier to beat as we are playing against one or two guys who set the prices (which a bunch of others copy).

 (I could easily be wrong here - just throwing it out).
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« Reply #21758 on: November 28, 2012, 11:41:10 AM »

I watch alot of sport.

I watch more sport than anyone know.

It's almost sad how much sport I watch.

But just once in while I see something which makes it all worthwhile.

I see a talented young player who just is a joy to watch, who I just know it is going to be a superstar at his chosen sport. Someone who makes you stop whatever your doing and marvel at his natural talent, joie de vivre and brilliance.

Without thinking too hard I remember Federer beating Sampras at Wimbledon, Judd Trump's first world Snooker campaign and Rory winning the Dubai Desert Classic.

Not only have you got watch these people, you have to move fast and get financially involved by backing them before everyone realises just how good thy are!

Well, a new star is about to appear in the firmament imo.

San Francisco 49ers are an excellent NFL team.

They have an awesome defence led by the fearsome Smith brothers Aldon and Justin. And the Duracell bunny at LB, Patrick Willis.

Troy Aikman called their Offensive line the best he had seen since the legendary one he played behind in the nineties.

They have a dependable running back in Frank Gore.

Weapon's aplenty at WR and TE.. Randy Moss, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis.

And at QB they have Alex Smith who is top in the league completion %, fourth in QB rating with an incredibly impressive TD to INT ratio of 14:5

Only thing is, he got a concussion a couple of weeks ago and had to be taken out of the lineup by a guy who had only seen spot duty so far.

This guy: Colin Kaepernick







I have watched NFL avidly for nearly 30 years.

And I can honestly say I have never have been so excited by a young player as Kaepernick.

His arm strength is amazing, his throws are like they on a frozen rope.

He has the mobility of Michael Vick and Cam Newton.

His temperament after performing the way h did after a very traumatic week in a very hostile atmosphere on Sunday sealed the deal.

This guy is destined to be an absolute superstar.

Jim Harbaugh is a great coach, for him to bench Alex Smith in favour of this guy tells you all you need to know.

I think San Francisco are the best team in the NFC with Smith at QB. And 5/1 for the Superbowl is about the right price.

With Kaepernick at QB, it's an absolute steal. Best bet I've seen in years.

Recommend £150 on San Fransisco to win the Superbowl at 5/1.



Have to feel for Smith..uber reliable and accurate traits in a QB that most coaches go to bed at night praying for...but he doesn't have the X factor..
Harbaugh tracked and traded up for the youngster and saw him as the future of San Fran from a long way out... Smith was reported as not happy at all being benched against the Saints. Kaepernick looks a superb athlete and I don't think Smith will get a look in again this year.
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« Reply #21759 on: November 28, 2012, 11:44:06 AM »

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/houston-rockets-at-oklahoma-city-thunder/total-points

Two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA square off in Oklahoma tonight. Rockets avg over 102 points a game and OKC 104.

James Harden going back to Oklahoma for the first time since his trade will fire him up and I expect him to have a monster game tonight.

If you look at the oddschecker link O207.5 on pinnacle is still a favourite over the under. Therefore I suggest betting O205 on PP just simply on the fact that we have 2-2.5 point edge on the market right now.

Is it 'Great Value?' No. Is it a '+EV bet' Yes, imo.
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« Reply #21760 on: November 28, 2012, 11:57:21 AM »

Morning Mr T. I would like to offer my support for TL900's basketball bet. There, are you happy Mr T. I know virtually nothing about basketball but in 2 posts TL900 has demonstrated a knowledge of a sport that has convinced me he knows what he is doing and a knowledge of the betting market. I meant to write a post supporting him yesterday but didn't really see that my support should have any weight.

Now maybe we can get back to the most important business of making money in our sleep.

P.S Keep the stakes low to start with but I think we may have the basketball equivalent of Singhee.
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« Reply #21761 on: November 28, 2012, 12:06:38 PM »



The non-placed bets needed support to be placed, but with the best will in the world (to pick one example)
a first goal scorer bet on Dean Hammond is unlikely to be supported. Who knows enough about or has seen Mr Hammond to say anything either way?



Me, I did say! Hit bar in last game before that, 2 goals ruled out offside, makes forward runs a lot, and could be our new pen taker....

Also, The camel, both are full backs look like missing out V palace. If thats the case 3+> could be likely and worth a go for Saturday for Palarse.
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« Reply #21762 on: November 28, 2012, 01:40:43 PM »

I'd like to raise a couple of points

Bets were missed last night despite being up for 48 hours before the event (and then collated for easy use)

The excellent 49ers bet (we hope) was placed as soon as it was seen. Understandably

The non-placed bets needed support to be placed, but with the best will in the world (to pick one example)
a first goal scorer bet on Dean Hammond is unlikely to be supported. Who knows enough about or has seen Mr Hammond to say anything either way?

Same for a lot of the more specialist bets in some sports. How can they be supported enough to be backed if no one has the knowledge to row in behind?

Similarly the Watford bet was tipped in two places. Is that not enough? The Watford tip was put up by someone whose team they were playing, and I tend to think when someone is actively prepared to tip against their own team (who watches as a season ticket holder) that's quite a powerful signal


Just food for thought.

The Watford bet - yes, down to me that - I SHOULD have backed it. Not ducking resdponsibility, but my job next door is pretty heavy right now, & I have a lot of stuff on my plate irl. Hard to find the time to do all the things I'd like......

The Hammond FGS bet - these are tricky, in truth, & usually I just sort of go by gut feel, knowledge of the poster, da de da.

I would wager a good deal of money that if we backed every FGS bet ever placed here, we would have lost a ton of money.

Awkward.

It isn´t that long ago that we bet on every football bet someone fancied, their own team or otherwise and knocked in a huge amount of the roll. I think what we have at the moment is about right. Always back anything suggested by Red, Neil, Keith, Horneris, Dubai or Bobby but for everything else there should be a compelling reason or support from one of the aforementioned in order for us to back it. I think Fred has the balance about  right at the moment.

Oh and please don´t back the draw in the Milwall football, it´s as near as makes no difference impossible to have any edge there.
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« Reply #21763 on: November 28, 2012, 01:54:12 PM »

Neil

"I wouldn't bet 1/4 that the next 20 12x football bets win. I wouldn't bet 4/7 and be happy.

 This is not to say that people don't know enough about football - they are just playing a game that is WAY harder to win."

How far does this extend. All of English football? League 1 and 2 included?

Premiership and Championship, sure, but you believe lower league English football is totally efficiently priced?

Not sure I do.

I tend to agree with you Tighty. I think there are oppourtunities in L1 and L2. I might be naive but I think there is some great value on away teams who are underestimated sometimes and the price is too high.

If you're backing singles in these games you don't need many winners to be in front.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #21764 on: November 28, 2012, 01:55:36 PM »

Neil

"I wouldn't bet 1/4 that the next 20 12x football bets win. I wouldn't bet 4/7 and be happy.

 This is not to say that people don't know enough about football - they are just playing a game that is WAY harder to win."

How far does this extend. All of English football? League 1 and 2 included?

Premiership and Championship, sure, but you believe lower league English football is totally efficiently priced?

Not sure I do.

I tend to agree with you Tighty. I think there are oppourtunities in L1 and L2. I might be naive but I think there is some great value on away teams who are underestimated sometimes and the price is too high.

If you're backing singles in these games you don't need many winners to be in front.


Thread has done well on the likes of Tranmere, Doncaster and much earlier in the season Walsall in L1 at 2-1+ when away/in form to struggling teams
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