Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

The Dallas Cowboys are probably the only team in the National Football League without a true home-field advantage.  The 3-8 Philadelphia Eagles play the 5-6 Dallas Cowboys today.  The game is on Sunday Night Football (Channel 4 here).  Unfortunately, Dallas will find a way to lose this game and here is why.

No true home-field advantage.

Since the move to Cowboys Stadium in 2009 they Cowboys are 15-14 in that stadium.  After the Chicago Bears game, fans were saying it was more like a Bears home game than it was the Cowboys home game.  Best assumption here is the fact that regular fans cannot afford the ticket prices and that leave corporate types at the stadium to represent the loud and rowdy fans.  In this stadium, more trips, false starts, and confusion seem more present than on the road.  Not to mention that Cowboy fans tend to show up on the road more so than at home games.  Here’s an interesting fact to chew on as well.  At home quarterback Tony Romo has thrown 12 of his 15 interceptions.

It’s Sunday night football.  

The Cowboys haven’t won on Sunday night football in the two seasons Jason Garrett has been head coach, unless you count the Wednesday night kick off against the New York Giants in week 1. Dallas seems to play even more mediocre on prime time games as opposed to the rest of the time.

Jason Garrett still calls the plays and they still can’t score in the red-zone.

This is an obvious one.  Jason Garrett is still the head coach and still the offensive coordinator and main play caller for the Dallas Cowboys.  Jason Garrett hasn’t figured out how to clock manage as well as balance play call the games yet.  If most of the fans can figure out which play is coming next, than any defensive coordinator in the league knows what play is coming next.

The other problem is the Cowboys are still kicking field goals in the red-zone as opposed to scoring touchdowns.  Relying on kicker Dan Bailey to kick field goals is becoming an old hat.  A lot of fans like Bailey because he is consistent, one of the few who are on the team, however, most fans would prefer him kicking extra points instead of field goals.

Dallas still has no offensive line.

This one is another obvious one.  The offensive line has continually got worse as the season has gone on.  There is an obvious lack of depth at the position plus Bill Callahan who was supposed to save the Cowboys offensive line has turned around and decimated it just as he did in Nebraska when he was head coach there.  The Cowboys went out and signed a wide receiver this past week, and depth at wide receiver is there, but yet they still managed not to do anything to assist the offensive line.

Finally, Dallas has yet to put four good quarters together.

 One of the most noticeable things about the Dallas Cowboys this season, with the exception of week 1, is the fact that they either come out strong in the first half or they come out strong in the second half.  This team isn’t conditioned to go a full four quarters so they a half team.  They need to get it together and start putting four good quarters together.

These are the most obvious reasons why Dallas won’t win later today against the Philadelphia Eagles.  Look for the Eagles to squeak out a win, especially now that the Eagles are out of the playoff race this season, they will be playing spoiler and it starts tonight in Arlington.


For the Nit, Philly are +10.5. Crazy crazy crazy spread. No team in this division is a 10.5 point dog to another. No team. If I closed my eyes I could blast out a max bet here.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/point-spread

For the Non nit, 9/2 on the outright is attractive

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/winner


Philly are very disappointing this year. I know that, you know that. What is yet to be fully priced into spreads, partly because ice cream money comes every week for the Cowboys, is how disappointing they are.

[tikay]

Re: Cardiff, they've won all nine home games obv and have led at half-time in six of those. They're defo king of the early goals, so what about the 11-8 h-t/f-t with Laddies?

That seems better value, but I don't know the maths of 11/8 ht/ft versus 8/13 outright. Probably the same thing?

PS - you mentioned " Radio Fens FM" earlier. You were not serious, were you?

Radio Fens FM, you have your own radio station out there?

 :)

RECOMMENDED BET £24 @ 11-8

Simply because you tried to get that "Radio Fens FM" bluff through, we will do that.

£24 @ 11/8, Ladbrokes, Cardiff to win HT/FT.

ON

Selection11/8 - Cardiff/Cardiff

EventCardiff v Sheffield Wednesday English

MarketHalf-time/Full-time
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Cardiff/Cardiff
1 line at £24.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £24.00
Potential Return: £57.00
Time: 02/12/12 13:40
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000212

[tikay]

The Dallas Cowboys are probably the only team in the National Football League without a true home-field advantage.  The 3-8 Philadelphia Eagles play the 5-6 Dallas Cowboys today.  The game is on Sunday Night Football (Channel 4 here).  Unfortunately, Dallas will find a way to lose this game and here is why.

No true home-field advantage.

Since the move to Cowboys Stadium in 2009 they Cowboys are 15-14 in that stadium.  After the Chicago Bears game, fans were saying it was more like a Bears home game than it was the Cowboys home game.  Best assumption here is the fact that regular fans cannot afford the ticket prices and that leave corporate types at the stadium to represent the loud and rowdy fans.  In this stadium, more trips, false starts, and confusion seem more present than on the road.  Not to mention that Cowboy fans tend to show up on the road more so than at home games.  Here’s an interesting fact to chew on as well.  At home quarterback Tony Romo has thrown 12 of his 15 interceptions.

It’s Sunday night football.  

The Cowboys haven’t won on Sunday night football in the two seasons Jason Garrett has been head coach, unless you count the Wednesday night kick off against the New York Giants in week 1. Dallas seems to play even more mediocre on prime time games as opposed to the rest of the time.

Jason Garrett still calls the plays and they still can’t score in the red-zone.

This is an obvious one.  Jason Garrett is still the head coach and still the offensive coordinator and main play caller for the Dallas Cowboys.  Jason Garrett hasn’t figured out how to clock manage as well as balance play call the games yet.  If most of the fans can figure out which play is coming next, than any defensive coordinator in the league knows what play is coming next.

The other problem is the Cowboys are still kicking field goals in the red-zone as opposed to scoring touchdowns.  Relying on kicker Dan Bailey to kick field goals is becoming an old hat.  A lot of fans like Bailey because he is consistent, one of the few who are on the team, however, most fans would prefer him kicking extra points instead of field goals.

Dallas still has no offensive line.

This one is another obvious one.  The offensive line has continually got worse as the season has gone on.  There is an obvious lack of depth at the position plus Bill Callahan who was supposed to save the Cowboys offensive line has turned around and decimated it just as he did in Nebraska when he was head coach there.  The Cowboys went out and signed a wide receiver this past week, and depth at wide receiver is there, but yet they still managed not to do anything to assist the offensive line.

Finally, Dallas has yet to put four good quarters together.

 One of the most noticeable things about the Dallas Cowboys this season, with the exception of week 1, is the fact that they either come out strong in the first half or they come out strong in the second half.  This team isn’t conditioned to go a full four quarters so they a half team.  They need to get it together and start putting four good quarters together.

These are the most obvious reasons why Dallas won’t win later today against the Philadelphia Eagles.  Look for the Eagles to squeak out a win, especially now that the Eagles are out of the playoff race this season, they will be playing spoiler and it starts tonight in Arlington.


For the Nit, Philly are +10.5. Crazy crazy crazy spread. No team in this division is a 10.5 point dog to another. No team. If I closed my eyes I could blast out a max bet here.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/point-spread

For the Non nit, 9/2 on the outright is attractive

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/winner


Philly are very disappointing this year. I know that, you know that. What is yet to be fully priced into spreads, partly because ice cream money comes every week for the Cowboys, is how disappointing they are.

Preference for the spread, or the outright? I prefer the spread I think.

Amount proposed?

[TightEnd]

I think thread would do the spread

Small steps and all that

Standard NFL bet size is £30-40 or so?

I'll rein in the gung ho, I think I probably should

[Chompy]

Small steps and nitty is not the way to go imo. You'll only end up treading water.

If you can make a case for Philly outright @ 9-2, make that the main bet. The bigger the price the bigger the bet should be.

[redarmi]

The Dallas Cowboys are probably the only team in the National Football League without a true home-field advantage.  The 3-8 Philadelphia Eagles play the 5-6 Dallas Cowboys today.  The game is on Sunday Night Football (Channel 4 here).  Unfortunately, Dallas will find a way to lose this game and here is why.

No true home-field advantage.

Since the move to Cowboys Stadium in 2009 they Cowboys are 15-14 in that stadium.  After the Chicago Bears game, fans were saying it was more like a Bears home game than it was the Cowboys home game.  Best assumption here is the fact that regular fans cannot afford the ticket prices and that leave corporate types at the stadium to represent the loud and rowdy fans.  In this stadium, more trips, false starts, and confusion seem more present than on the road.  Not to mention that Cowboy fans tend to show up on the road more so than at home games.  Here’s an interesting fact to chew on as well.  At home quarterback Tony Romo has thrown 12 of his 15 interceptions.

It’s Sunday night football. 

The Cowboys haven’t won on Sunday night football in the two seasons Jason Garrett has been head coach, unless you count the Wednesday night kick off against the New York Giants in week 1. Dallas seems to play even more mediocre on prime time games as opposed to the rest of the time.

Jason Garrett still calls the plays and they still can’t score in the red-zone.

This is an obvious one.  Jason Garrett is still the head coach and still the offensive coordinator and main play caller for the Dallas Cowboys.  Jason Garrett hasn’t figured out how to clock manage as well as balance play call the games yet.  If most of the fans can figure out which play is coming next, than any defensive coordinator in the league knows what play is coming next.

The other problem is the Cowboys are still kicking field goals in the red-zone as opposed to scoring touchdowns.  Relying on kicker Dan Bailey to kick field goals is becoming an old hat.  A lot of fans like Bailey because he is consistent, one of the few who are on the team, however, most fans would prefer him kicking extra points instead of field goals.

Dallas still has no offensive line.

This one is another obvious one.  The offensive line has continually gotten worse as the season has gone on.  There is an obvious lack of depth at the position plus Bill Callahan who was supposed to save the Cowboys offensive line has turn around and decimated it just as he did in Nebraska when he was head coach there.  The Cowboys went out and signed a wide receiver this past week, and depth at wide receiver is there, but yet they still managed not to do anything to assist the offensive line.

Finally, Dallas has yet to put four good quarters together.

 One of the most noticeable things about the Dallas Cowboys this season, with the exception of week 1, is the fact that they either come out strong in the first half or they come out strong in the second half.  This team isn’t conditioned to go a full four quarters so they a half team.  They need to get it together and start putting four good quarters together.

These are the most obvious reasons why Dallas won’t win later today against the Philadelphia Eagles.  Look for the Eagles to squeak out a win, especially now that the Eagles are out of the playoff race this season, they will be playing spoiler and it starts tonight in Arlington.


For the Nit, Philly are +10.5. Crazy crazy crazy spread. No team in this division is a 10.5 point dog to another. No team. If I closed my eyes I could blast out a max bet here.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/point-spread

For the Non nit, 9/2 on the outright is attractive

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/winner


Philly are very disappointing this year. I know that, you know that. What is yet to be fully priced into spreads, partly because ice cream money comes every week for the Cowboys, is how disappointing they are.

Agree in a vacuum it looks attractive but couple of things put me off.  Firstly since Vick got injured they are 0-3 with Foles as a starter and have lost to the Cowboys by 15 in Philly which obviously doesn't bode well, 25 to Washington and 8 at home to Carolina.  None of these teams have a winning record and now they have lost DeSean Jackson at wide receiver and LeSean McCoy at running back so they dont have their best player available at all of the key skill positions.  In addition to this their offensive line has been struggling to defend Foles and give him the time he needs and now he is up against one of the best pass rushers in football in Demarcus Ware.  I would never lay 10.5 points even given all the above but I also suspect that Philly may have quit for the season and it is never a good idea to bet on teams like that.

One thing I think may be worth a look is total number of sacks in the game.  Only a couple of firms seem to have it up at the moment but 4.5 seems fairly low to me and I was only really thinking about the Philly O line.

[bobby1]

I half fancied Philly myself with the start  if I had to have a bet mainly coz it's the Cowboys innit but isn't the focus of this game the fact that Philly are down to the bones of the squad and have Foles in at qb, Brown in at rb and have lost D Jax.

Your preview is very Dallascentric but deffo bang on with regards to them but Nick Foles Bryce Brown and a a wr set of Maclin , a half fit Avant and Cooper playing for Philly has to be an integral part of assessing the bet and It's tough to believe any of those other than Maclin would be starting for many teams in the league.

Brown ran well on Monday night but it's hard to believe he will ever achieve that again. It's Dallas and RomCom against a Divisional rival with a big 'derby' history to it but this Philly team is an absolute shadow team on offence and were a shambles against the pass on Monday night too.

With Reid on his way out too do you think there is a chance they have just given up?

[bobby1]

bugger, could have +1 Red's post and saved the wrist ache.

[TightEnd]

Two bad teams

Both badly injury hit

Market fully understands the issues for one, not the other

and you get a 10.5 point start

If the team with the spread has given up the season, you at least know that the other team can play stupidly. It does every week

[youthnkzR]

Name that ground

Click to see full-size image.

Mansfield Town?

[TightEnd]

Name that ground

Click to see full-size image.

Mansfield Town?

bookiebasher got it

Notts C. MA part of MAGPIES

[bobby1]

Two bad teams

Both badly injury hit

Market fully understands the issues for one, not the other

and you get a 10.5 point start

If the team with the spread has given up the season, you at least know that the other team can play stupidly. It does every week

Hi Rich

Yes the + 10 1/2 deffo takes all of these factors into account (I actually like Cooper as a wr but he does sometimes remind me of a little boy lost when running routes) but analysing a game and fancying a team + 10 1/2 without mentioning they are missing Vick, McCoy and D Jax  is a bit like putting up Liverpool as a bet in a preview without mentioning that Suarez, Gerrard and Reina are missing that day as it changes the game a lot. It was hard to know without asking how much weight you had attached to that as you didn't mention the Philly team in your post.

I don't think we need a lot going our way to back a team + 10 1/2 and it is against the Cowboys who specialise in looking good when playing from behind. You also have to be a lot of points behind to not have a chance of a backdoor cover getting a a start like that too if we think that Philly can overcome the loss of their number 1 qb rb and wr's.

[TightEnd]

Two bad teams

Both badly injury hit

Market fully understands the issues for one, not the other

and you get a 10.5 point start

If the team with the spread has given up the season, you at least know that the other team can play stupidly. It does every week

Hi Rich

Yes the + 10 1/2 deffo takes all of these factors into account (I actually like Cooper as a wr but he does sometimes remind me of a little boy lost when running routes) but analysing a game and fancying a team + 10 1/2 without mentioning they are missing Vick, McCoy and D Jax  is a bit like putting up Liverpool as a bet in a preview without mentioning that Suarez, Gerrard and Reina are missing that day as it changes the game a lot. It was hard to know without asking how much weight you had attached to that as you didn't mention the Philly team in your post.

I don't think we need a lot going our way to back a team + 10 1/2 and it is against the Cowboys who specialise in looking good when playing from behind. You also have to be a lot of points behind to not have a chance of a backdoor cover getting a a start like that too if we think that Philly can overcome the loss of their number 1 qb rb and wr's.

of course I knew the Philly side but my added value (lol, lets pretend) is I am fanatic about Dallas and it is my contention that is that side of the equation that is underappreciated in the 10.5 line

I managed a side of a Microsoft office text document on Dallas to copy across into here, without then getting going on Phily!

[bobby1]

  I'm glad we had the convo, I had actually forgotten that Philly have released Jason Babin this week until I went thru the game again just now. That is a blow to the pass rush and does look like a team fully getting ready for next season by releasing a veteran on high wages even tho he is still a good player on their team.

The money is coming on the Philly side tho which complicates it a little more for me as I did wonder if the late Sunday getting out game featuring a usually overbet team might mean the hcap got bigger. I'm not sure that will happen now.

good luck mate

[TightEnd]

I haven't got time to check the punting side, but Oakland have scratched mcfadden today as the field is a bog, heavy rain currently

@ChrisHansenNFL Raiders protecting McFadden from slop fest. Water pooling everywhere. O.co's field probably swamp

playing the browns, if its not on spreads and totals: low points etc etc