Tips for Tikay

[hector62]

India v England 3rd test.

All the pre match hype for the last test was to bring Monty back as the pitch would suit and he performed admirably. All the hype for this match is to play Finn instead of Broad. My interpretation of this is as follows.

If this wicket was going to be another huge spinner then they would be proposing Bresnan for Broad as his batting is OK and it is thought that the spinners will take most of the wickets and Patel and Pietersen can bowl spin too. But they are not, it is all about Finn. He played in the warm up game and got 4 1st innings wickets and by all accounts looked sharp.

I looked at the match played at this ground last year v the West Indies. India batted 1st and got over 600. They then bowled the WI out for 153 and then 463 to win the match. India's seamers Yadav and Sharma took 9 of the wickets to fall and 5 of them were bowled. My final piece of information that has pushed me towards this bet is that the match starts each day an hour earlier at 9 am so there will be dew about to help the seamers.

I would like to suggest for top English bowler to be Finn or Anderson, it is only done on 1st innings wickets taken.

Finn £10 @ 5-1 Betfred
Anderson £10 @ 11-2  Bluesquare

[tikay]

Newcastle vs Wigan

Wigan @4.2 on bf

Because Newcastle are woeful

I fancy Wigan but have played with 365 on the asians @1.875/7/8-must get a 188 account as they are 1.9/9/10.

I backed Wigan versus City last week and for the first 60 minutes they were the better team.

Bad finishing and City's better class did for them, but overall I was really impressed with Martinez's side.

Newcastle have a terrible injury record at the moment, and altho Wigan have problems in that area too,they aren't missing such key squad members as the home side are.

Newcastle this season are certainly no Man City. Yet the markets seem to indicate they are far the better side here, almost as if they haven't priced in those injury problems.

I have dabbled on Wigan at 4.1 on the machine and have even had a flutter on-1@11.0.

However, I think the main value is in backing Wigan on the asians as the draw is a huge player here too.

Would recommend Wigan+0.5 on the asian handicap@1.875+.

Like most of the bookies that offer this bet in similar markets, I make it nearer a 8/11-4/6 shot at best.

Probs wld have a nifty on it.

Other peeps thoughts?

Thanks Dom.

Anyone?

Currently 10/11 or thereabouts is available.

We have 30 minutes to decide.

Newcastle have been pretty dire of late, & are close to the relegation zone, equal on points with Wigan.

I can't help but think Newcastle will come out firing on all cylinders tonight, but I agree, Wigan looked a handful against Man City for the first hour.

I'm not sure it warrants a bet, but open to views.

Dom,

I can't quite persuade myself to bet this.

I do fancy Wigan are better that many think, but Newcastle need a result SO badly, & will chuck the kitchen sink at Wigan tonight, I fancy.

Think we'll keep our (diminishing) powder dry for better spots.

[tikay]

Loved the NFL stuff on here today (49ers & Seattle), and as hector reminds us, we have the 3rd Test looming.

It really is tough to spot genuine value in the Premiership on outrights, imo, except in very rare spots, & I think we can use our money in better spots. (e.g., 5/2 West Ham to beat Liverpool where we nicked the prices before the bookies adjusted for the Chelsea result.)

(Cue Wigan trashing Newcastle tonight...).

[horseplayer]

good evening all

hope everybody is ok and thread has been winning or failing that having some good sweats

[Tal]

Hector, the groundsman has had a row with Dhoni because he won't prepare a Bunsen. The pitch next to the one they will be playing on has been playing true, which suits Finn who can get bounce and Anderson who can move it in the air. It will deteriorate of course, but Finn will be worrying the 5'8" Indian attack.

Has the wall met the ladder?

[Tal]

One game still going in the chess tonight. However, our man drew with Black against Kramnik, which is good, as Kramnik is the main danger. They are tied first now.

Adams beat Polgar, so he is 2/2, having had his rest day already, but he hasn't played any of the big boys yet.

Nakamura is trying as I type to convert a minor edge with Black against Jones and we would prefer it if he didn't.

Anand - after all the chat this morning - got an edge early and was a pawn up for most of the game. However, he couldn't turn it into a win and so the game was drawn after 51 moves and five battling hours. Still better than 7/1

We march on.

[tikay]

good evening all

hope everybody is ok and thread has been winning or failing that having some good sweats

Horsey!

Great to see you here, hope things are a little better at home. Your advice is much missed here, it really is.

[horseplayer]

thanks tikay i have sent you another pm

dont want to clog the thread with my issues

try and read it everyday but when you dont check it every hour (like i used to!) it dont half go some pace sometimes

[Nico29]

Newcastle vs Wigan

Wigan @4.2 on bf

Because Newcastle are woeful

I fancy Wigan but have played with 365 on the asians @1.875/7/8-must get a 188 account as they are 1.9/9/10.

I backed Wigan versus City last week and for the first 60 minutes they were the better team.

Bad finishing and City's better class did for them, but overall I was really impressed with Martinez's side.

Newcastle have a terrible injury record at the moment, and altho Wigan have problems in that area too,they aren't missing such key squad members as the home side are.

Newcastle this season are certainly no Man City. Yet the markets seem to indicate they are far the better side here, almost as if they haven't priced in those injury problems.

I have dabbled on Wigan at 4.1 on the machine and have even had a flutter on-1@11.0.

However, I think the main value is in backing Wigan on the asians as the draw is a huge player here too.

Would recommend Wigan+0.5 on the asian handicap@1.875+.

Like most of the bookies that offer this bet in similar markets, I make it nearer a 8/11-4/6 shot at best.

Probs wld have a nifty on it.

Other peeps thoughts?

Thanks Dom.

Anyone?

Currently 10/11 or thereabouts is available.

We have 30 minutes to decide.

Newcastle have been pretty dire of late, & are close to the relegation zone, equal on points with Wigan.

I can't help but think Newcastle will come out firing on all cylinders tonight, but I agree, Wigan looked a handful against Man City for the first hour.

I'm not sure it warrants a bet, but open to views.

Dom,

I can't quite persuade myself to bet this.

I do fancy Wigan are better that many think, but Newcastle need a result SO badly, & will chuck the kitchen sink at Wigan tonight, I fancy.

Think we'll keep our (diminishing) powder dry for better spots.

Phew good swerve tikay!

Wish i'd done same seeing as they are now 1-0 down and also down to 10 men.

[tikay]

^^^^

Told you I run good!

Even against 10 men, Newcastle look very shaky at the back. Don't give up yet.

[TheDazzler]

Champions league.

The 1st two teams in the betting are Barca (13/5) and Real (7/2), the next 2 are German, Bayern (8/1), Dortmund (9/1). Then we get the English, French, Italian, Portugese, Ukrainian teams.
Keep going down and we arrive at the 3rd German team, Shalke 04, who can be backed @ 66/1.

If we look at the German league, Bayern are cruising and look the dominant team.
Then comes Leverkusen, then Dortmund and Schalke in 3rd and 4th separated by 2 points.

So we have 2 German teams, both of whom have qualified for last 16 and likely to top their groups (albeit Dortmunds was much tougher), looking like they are similarly matched in their national league and yet one is 9/1 4th favs for the Champs league and the other is 66/1 12th favs.
And Schalke didn't play Champs league last year but 2 years ago were beaten by Man United in the semi finals.
We all know the Germans are coming (in a couple of years they may be the dominant league in Europe?) but is there value here on Schalke, or conversely, are Dortmund too short?

The only league I know anything about is the Premier league and I don't even watch Champs League, let alone the Bundseliga so perhaps the prices are correct but would welcome other views.

[BigAdz]

I know as a Newbie I should mind my Ps and , but week in week out the general wisdom is that we have no edge in Premiership games, yet it seems the majority of recent losses have come from.....you guessed it, percieved value bets on Premiership football.

Need I say more?

[Tonji]

One game still going in the chess tonight. However, our man drew with Black against Kramnik, which is good, as Kramnik is the main danger. They are tied first now.

Adams beat Polgar, so he is 2/2, having had his rest day already, but he hasn't played any of the big boys yet.

Nakamura is trying as I type to convert a minor edge with Black against Jones and we would prefer it if he didn't.

Anand - after all the chat this morning - got an edge early and was a pawn up for most of the game. However, he couldn't turn it into a win and so the game was drawn after 51 moves and five battling hours. Still better than 7/1

We march on.

Is a draw decided & agreed by both players?

Not had time to check any of the live stream yet, but will later in the week if work is slack.

[Tal]

One game still going in the chess tonight. However, our man drew with Black against Kramnik, which is good, as Kramnik is the main danger. They are tied first now.

Adams beat Polgar, so he is 2/2, having had his rest day already, but he hasn't played any of the big boys yet.

Nakamura is trying as I type to convert a minor edge with Black against Jones and we would prefer it if he didn't.

Anand - after all the chat this morning - got an edge early and was a pawn up for most of the game. However, he couldn't turn it into a win and so the game was drawn after 51 moves and five battling hours. Still better than 7/1

We march on.

Is a draw decided & agreed by both players?

Not had time to check any of the live stream yet, but will later in the week if work is slack.

Generally speaking yes. There are certain mandatory drawn positions (where it is impossible for either side to win) and this was one of those as both players only had a King left on the board.

[Tal]

Jones holds Nakamura to a draw. Reasonable day for us.

Just in time for Only Connect. Good.