Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

West Ham play Liverpool on Sunday and we already have a bet on WH to win the game.
There may however still be some value to be had in the 1st goalscorer market.
Liverpool face a dilemma in who who to field up front in the absence of the suspended Suarez.
There seems to be 3 possibilities. Adam Morgan, Jonjo Shelvey and Stephen Gerrard.
Morgan is a young, inexperienced reserve team player who is a natural striker but at a best priced 7/1 doesn't really interest us much.
Jonjo Shelvey is more experienced, and although not a natural striker, has played that role this season in a European game. He is generally priced 6/1 to 13/2 but Coral are standout @ 9/1. If he is chosen, that looks a good price.
Gerrard is not a striker but has played that position before. He is generally priced at 7/1 to 8/1 but BetVictor do go 11/1, which if he is chosen, would certainly be value.

So the problem is deciding who is going to play there? If we wait until the day of the game and the teams are announced, the prices will surely tumble on either Shelvey or Gerrard if they are picked in the forward spot. So can we get the jump on the bookies?
Yes, I hope that we can.
Red and White Kop (http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=300616.00) have been very accurate in predicting Pool lineups and got last weeks (rather surprising lineup) spot on. They predicted that Lucas would start (most had expected him to be on the bench) and that Enrique would be at LB and Shelvey would be left sided midfield. Enrique had impressed at left midfield in previous matches and it was assumed that he would continue there.
How did they do it?
Well fans are able to watch Pool training sessions and it turns out that when playing practice matches, the team to start on the weekend plays in bibs against the rest of the players in non bibs. As simple as that.
Normally that training session would have been this morning but as Pool play on Sunday, it should be tomorrow morning instead.
So I'd advise keeping an eye on that forum tomorrow and see what it tells us.
Hopefully Gerrard is picked to play up front and we should back him at 11/1. In truth, 11/1 might be a decent price on him even if he doesn't as he is on freekicks and pens and the return of Lucas will allow him more attacking licence in any case.
If RAWK tells us he is upfront, I would suggest that 11/1 is going to be a very tasty bet indeed.

Great analysis, thanks.

Can you keep an eye on this, & remind me if the Team is favourable to your suggestions?

The match is not until tomorrow.

[tikay]

With the exception of the Tighty suggestion on both the Sheffield Teams, I don't really see any recommends which suggest (to me) decent value.

I'm sure I'll miss a shed load of winners, but I think we will mostly keep our money in our pocket today.

Further views on the two Sheffield bets would be welcome.

I'm offline for a while now, but I'll be able to process any incoming stuff a little later, (around 11am) if it arrives soon enough.

Have a good day, & may you all get the bloody lot.

[TightEnd]

Announcement: The body of the Indian cricket team has been taken for X-ray to see if it has a spine

Out-batted

Out-bowled

Out-fielded

India comprehensively done over in 4 days as England go close to going 2-1 up, and as I have to crack on I have to write a premature report 

It's tricky to see how India put the same team out next week. At some stage a decision on the selection on fading Tendulkar needs to be addressed, Yuvraj is another tough decision, Kohli is almost run-less, Zaheer fields with a zimmer frame, Ashwin has been outbowled.....lots of issues that a couple of bad performances have brought to the fore.

It's been a surprising couple of weeks really but Cook, England's spinners and today Anderson and Finn have really come through. The fast bowlers were reversing it at pace today, and with variable bounce too they were too much for a brittle batting order to handle

Bad for us, Gambhir ran out Pujara for 8. However he remains comfortably ahead with only the Nagpur test to come

Nagpur is typically a batsmen's paradise. Heck knows what type of pitch India will prepare. Been beaten on a raging turner, and now on a slow used pitch.


Anyway we had £10 on Ind 3-1 which looked good for a while, and indeed went favourite after Ahmedabad...imminent loser please Mere Auditor

Anderson is still a runner, though unlikely


Come on Pujara in Nagpur!

[bobby1]

Great stuff Hector

[Karabiner]

Great stuff Hector

Indeed.

[Tal]

Tighty, watch India win the last test and Cricket India say everything's fine.

They take Laxman and Dravid out of your side, keep the mascot (tendulkar - well he's not there as a batsman, is he?) and expect to keep winning.

[Waz1892]

anyone see a reason why Tranmere shouldnt be back at 11/10 (whill) at home against portsmouth?

Top vs 20th.
Pompey not won in 7 (6l 1d)

Something seems wrong?

[horseplayer]

morning all

very pleasing book on the series now have no idea what the pitch will be like for the final test but whichever way they go i favour england strongly 2-1 is still my best result so an unlikely feather-bed would go down well here

had a bit of time last 24 hours and would like to suggest a bet on bournemouth who have rapidly improved under the return of howe. Some stats that back this up

under Howe 21pts from 9 games average 2.33 ppg now only 5pts off top 6

since Howes return Bournemouth have scored 22 goals in 9 games.


The strikers he has to choose from are without question the best in the division (McQuoid Tubbs Grabban Barnard Fletcher & Pitman)

The problem if there is one is that mk dons (very good side finally converting domination to wins recently) sheff utd (dour side but strong mentally and lots of depth) tranmere (did not think they would be anywere near as high tbh but have hung on well so far cant see them winning it personally) and doncaster ( have not seen them much but dont quite see them as shoe ins for the top six yet myself) are all likely even if they implode to be in and around the top six.

Personally i had a decent bet on bournemouth top six finish at 11-10 with betvictor last night , if howe maintains his current rate (probably unlikely) a top two or title challenge is even possible but to me odds against for the top six with no financial worries likely is to big.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.  Heineken cup Scarlets v Exeter today.

Much thinkage has gone on this fixture over the last 2 days. Exeter kind of let us down last time in losing at home to Clermont. However they were winning at H/T and in retrospect I think that Clermont are a very good team and could win the competition.

Welsh rugby is in a bad way, lots of injuries, a poor national team and the players are moving on mass to the money clubs of France. Exeter on the other hand do everything right, they are a proper old fashioned rugby club. They have 1 England international and after he was dropped and sent back to the club they didn't pick him. Instead he was used as a sub for the last 20 minutes because the replacement player had performed well. You have to be a rugby player to fully realise how that boosts a team. He is picked to start today - do you think he will be motivated ?

The final thing that pushed me towards tipping Exeter is the fact that the Scarlets fly half, who is also the Welsh fly half, is currently seeking help from a sports psychologist because he feels he is playing badly. Not what you want from a fly half, they should be cocky and confident beyond belief. To give you an indication of what they should be like, I haven't played for 6 years but I still think that if I trained for a month I would be one of the top 20 fly halfs in the country and one of the top 10 scrum halfs in the world. That is what you should get from a half back. Totally ridiculous I know, I should be thinking of playing bowls.

Suggest £20 Exeter @ 2-1 Sportingbet

£5 the draw @20-1 Betfred or Ladbrokes.

[Tal]

Some interesting prices today in the chess. I'm steering clear of Fred recommends, Tikay, as purely selfishly I want Fred to end up ahead. Up to you if you want to disagree.

3 days left. Carlsen and Kramnik have two games and a rest day each (Kramnik today, Carlsen tomorrow). Arguably the biggest danger is Adams, who is 6 points behind but has a game in hand.

Carlsen is Black against the fiery Nakamura, which will likely be a struggle. In a vacuum, I'd say draw at 4/5 is a good price, but Carlsen is playing so well ATM it is hard to have any confidence backing against him winning.

On the other hand, Polgar v Anand is less exciting. Anand will play on the counter but 7/4 for a player who is off the back of a rotten blunder is uninviting. I would otherwise have been advocating a bet here. Now I have no confidence in whether he has the mindset to play to win today.

Jones has been playing arguably the most exciting chess in this tournament. He has made sacrifices in almost every game and has given the poor commentators hell trying to assess the position. He plays Aronian today who himself has given up pawns this week to get more active pieces. This would be the game to follow today. These two couldn't be playing more riskily if they were managed by Keegan and 'Arry. Aronian is not at his best this week but he is still a better player than Jones by some distance. 12/1 for Jones is quite a price for what will be a baffling and furious contest.

McShane has played better than his results suggest, but he has made the odd mis-step and they have cost him against players at the top of their game. Adams is playing very well again. However, he doesn't have the flamboyance of Luuuuuke and McShane did beat him this time last year. He's 8/1 to repeat today and although he has Black and although an Adams-friendly Ruy Lopez is in the offing, he is more dangerous than the price would suggest. Adams has to win today to stand a chance of lifting the trophy. That means he can't just rely on outplaying his opponent in the endgame as that might not happen. McShane will get short of time but this has potential upset written all over it. Let us not forget McShane went into this tournament ranked ABOVE Adams. Anything over 5/1 looks like a price to me and my cornetto eyes.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.  Heineken cup Scarlets v Exeter today.

Much thinkage has gone on this fixture over the last 2 days. Exeter kind of let us down last time in losing at home to Clermont. However they were winning at H/T and in retrospect I think that Clermont are a very good team and could win the competition.

Welsh rugby is in a bad way, lots of injuries, a poor national team and the players are moving on mass to the money clubs of France. Exeter on the other hand do everything right, they are a proper old fashioned rugby club. They have 1 England international and after he was dropped and sent back to the club they didn't pick him. Instead he was used as a sub for the last 20 minutes because the replacement player had performed well. You have to be a rugby player to fully realise how that boosts a team. He is picked to start today - do you think he will be motivated ?

The final thing that pushed me towards tipping Exeter is the fact that the Scarlets fly half, who is also the Welsh fly half, is currently seeking help from a sports psychologist because he feels he is playing badly. Not what you want from a fly half, they should be cocky and confident beyond belief. To give you an indication of what they should be like, I haven't played for 6 years but I still think that if I trained for a month I would be one of the top 20 fly halfs in the country and one of the top 10 scrum halfs in the world. That is what you should get from a half back. Totally ridiculous I know, I should be thinking of playing bowls.

Suggest £20 Exeter @ 2-1 Sportingbet

£5 the draw @20-1 Betfred or Ladbrokes.

Thanks h.

Your success precedes you, everyone must have piled on Exeter, as the 2/1 has gone, but we took 19/10. WE got 22/1 the Draw though.

£20 @ 19/10, BWin, Exeter to beat Llanelli.

£5 @ 22/1, Paddy Power, Draw.

ON

12/8/2012 12:48 PM Single bet   Llanelli Scarlets - Exeter Chiefs (3Way - result) Exeter Chiefs ? 20.00 19/10



Heineken Cup Scarlets v Exeter Chiefs
08-12-2012 13:35
Match Betting
Draw @ 22/1
 
Your Bets Win
Single: Draw @ 22/1
1 line at £5.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £5.00
Potential returns: £115.00
No: O/23146337/0000228

 

[tikay]

Duty calls I am afraid, so that is it for now.

[TL900]

Lakers 108


Thunder 114


141 - 108 = 6.


Good grief.

I was supposed to bet £110 @ -6, but missed one point of the line, so halved the bet to £55, which then lost.

If we had bet @ -6, would we have won, or pushed? I'm trying to see if my delay cost us money, or saved us a few bob!

would have been a push. Thunder were up 14 going into the 4th Q then decided to implode.

edit : just watched it, lakers made like every 3 late in the game lol. We got pretty unlucky. C'est la vie. Would take thunder -6 all day every day

[chelseaboy]

Bristol C play at Sheff Wed tomorrow

Sheff Wed have 1 clean sheat in 20 games

Bristol C have no clean sheets in 20 games

Two poor sides, though Bristol C do score goals recently. Combined negative goal difference this year is -27


Both teams to score has been a complete bonanza this season in the Championship, as we have discussed on here

I am thinking that BTTS at 8/13 for this game might be a genuine 1/2 shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/sheffield-wednesday-v-bristol-city/both-teams-to-score




In League One I continue to oppose a poor Carlisle side sliding towards the bottom 4 and threatening our Walsall slide

Tomorrow they host Sheff U, who concede few goals away, only 7 in 10 games and are needing a result after a loss last league game took them out of the top two

Carlisle have lost 6 at home, conceding 25 goals in the 10 home games

Sheff U are 13/10 in two spots and to my mind are odds on at Carlisle

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/carlisle-v-sheffield-utd/winner

 

I'm a bit wobbly on this, especially the 8/13, assuming it is still available.

Butter me up, go on, butter, butter.....

Sheff Wed BTTS is IN!!

Sheff Utd leading 1-0

[hector62]

Scarlets  16 Exeter Chiefs  22  F/T

So who is going to man up and admit to stealing Fred's price of 2-1 ?