Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

Dean Saunders is a twat.

imo.

Oooh!

You can anticipate to plenty of uncalled for and probably unwanted trenchant opinions during the last weekend of October.

[tikay]

England won a thrilling first ODI, their first win in 14 ODIs in India

Scoring over 300 and holding on by 9 runs

Bell top scored with 85 and is now 6/4 favourite in the Top English batter market. A good start, but early days

Tredwell took four wickets, and might be a bet that got away! We'll see if the subsequent pitches are as good as this one, and as unhelpful to Finn etc

England won as underdogs. I still suggest 3-2 either way is pretty likely as a series scoe and there is money to be made backing the underdog pre-match in every game. Each ODI is essentially evens each of two, and like this one where England were 11/8 pre match, there is a smidge of value in going contrarian.

By the by the new rules limiting teams to only 4 players outside the fielding circle means that totals are going to rise, structurally. Something to watch for match total bets etc

Yes, maybe Tredwell was a bad swerve, but the Bell bet started well.

How do you see the result as to Pujara's chance of getting a place next time?

I have a feeling that the Bookies might just have outsmarted us here, they must have known he was unlikely to start. To be fair, it was always accepted that his place was not guaranteed. Surprising though, I would have thought.

[TightEnd]

India scored over 300 chasing, and none of their batsmen failed

I fear Pujara might not get selected until it is too late for him to win the thread's bet

Personally, I'd have him in..much as England select Cook to anchor an innings and for others to play around

[redarmi]

cheers Red so with adjustments about 18-20%?


It wouldn't be that difficult if we had the back end of a team to score first tool as we would then have a full 90 minutes list of prices for team to score first at any minute of the game. If we multiply that by the price Man Utd would be to win the game in the same minute should Liverpool have scored the first goal in that minute we would then know what price the Liverpool to take the lead and Man Utd to win price was for every minute of the game. Same for the Man Utd to lead and Liverpool to win too.

It would be interesting if nothing else.

Yeah I actually thought about that after I posted.  It would be fairly straightforward to do it like that just a bit time consuming.  A few years ago I spent a lot of time putting together all the maths for various different football bets that were offered and once I had mastered the obvious stuff like -FT, handicaps, first goalscorers etc I started work on the more esoteric stuff like scorecasts, players to score hatricks etc.  What i found was that generally speaking this stuff has a LOT of margin in it because the books don't have to offer a two way line (ie the price for it not to happen) so it isn't transparent what margin they are betting to so they take whatever they think they can get away with.  I could see the odd notional situation where there could potentially be value available but generally it was where the original game and goal markets had moved a long way and this price was stale and even then it was generally likely to be very thin.  I would suggest that this is another example of such a price and the time you would have to put into figuring out whether it was value would almost certainly not be worth the value you could get from it.

The level of analysis in this thread continues to amaze, and the insight offered is more than likely priceless.

Thanks to bobby and Red in particular.

My post was speculative, based on the thought that this fixture will be hard fought and that recent history suggests that scoring first doesn't make you winners. Especially scoring first vs Manchester United.
Not a Fred bet though, and almost certainly not value generally.

All that being said,.

Incredible analysis, eh, David?

If reds & Bobby don't mind, perhaps we can take this a stage further.


".... if Liverpool do score early it's likely I'll be backing United in-play..."

Let us assume Liverpool take a 1-0 lead in the 30th minute, (for ease of maths).

What price will you back Man Utd at?

Any price, or do you have a a specific price in mind?

If they have the time to spare, reds or Bobby (& maybe others) will be able, I think, to give you a precise "value" figure for Man Utd to win after being 1 down at 30 minutes. 

I would make the correct price for United at that stage 7/2 so I would probably back them at 4/1.  For a slightly more complete answer to Davids original question:

If Liverpool were leading 1-0 I would make MU the following prices to win the game at the following stages:

15 mins 3.80
30 mins 4.50
45 mins - 5.80
60 Mins - 8.60
75 Mins 19.55

The above numbers are rounded slightly and are probably somewhat inaccurate especially in the later stages because United are probably likely to do this a bit more than the usual team (although possibly not as much as they are perceived to) but when you bear in mind that for the bet to be a winner Liverpool also have to score first in this scenario (which is a 2.70 shot) you can see how it would rarely be value.

[tikay]

Awesome stuff Reds, thank you.

[david3103]

cheers Red so with adjustments about 18-20%?


It wouldn't be that difficult if we had the back end of a team to score first tool as we would then have a full 90 minutes list of prices for team to score first at any minute of the game. If we multiply that by the price Man Utd would be to win the game in the same minute should Liverpool have scored the first goal in that minute we would then know what price the Liverpool to take the lead and Man Utd to win price was for every minute of the game. Same for the Man Utd to lead and Liverpool to win too.

It would be interesting if nothing else.

Yeah I actually thought about that after I posted.  It would be fairly straightforward to do it like that just a bit time consuming.  A few years ago I spent a lot of time putting together all the maths for various different football bets that were offered and once I had mastered the obvious stuff like -FT, handicaps, first goalscorers etc I started work on the more esoteric stuff like scorecasts, players to score hatricks etc.  What i found was that generally speaking this stuff has a LOT of margin in it because the books don't have to offer a two way line (ie the price for it not to happen) so it isn't transparent what margin they are betting to so they take whatever they think they can get away with.  I could see the odd notional situation where there could potentially be value available but generally it was where the original game and goal markets had moved a long way and this price was stale and even then it was generally likely to be very thin.  I would suggest that this is another example of such a price and the time you would have to put into figuring out whether it was value would almost certainly not be worth the value you could get from it.

The level of analysis in this thread continues to amaze, and the insight offered is more than likely priceless.

Thanks to bobby and Red in particular.

My post was speculative, based on the thought that this fixture will be hard fought and that recent history suggests that scoring first doesn't make you winners. Especially scoring first vs Manchester United.
Not a Fred bet though, and almost certainly not value generally.

All that being said,.

Incredible analysis, eh, David?

If reds & Bobby don't mind, perhaps we can take this a stage further.


".... if Liverpool do score early it's likely I'll be backing United in-play..."

Let us assume Liverpool take a 1-0 lead in the 30th minute, (for ease of maths).

What price will you back Man Utd at?

Any price, or do you have a a specific price in mind?

If they have the time to spare, reds or Bobby (& maybe others) will be able, I think, to give you a precise "value" figure for Man Utd to win after being 1 down at 30 minutes. 

I would make the correct price for United at that stage 7/2 so I would probably back them at 4/1.  For a slightly more complete answer to Davids original question:

If Liverpool were leading 1-0 I would make MU the following prices to win the game at the following stages:

15 mins 3.80
30 mins 4.50
45 mins - 5.80
60 Mins - 8.60
75 Mins 19.55

The above numbers are rounded slightly and are probably somewhat inaccurate especially in the later stages because United are probably likely to do this a bit more than the usual team (although possibly not as much as they are perceived to) but when you bear in mind that for the bet to be a winner Liverpool also have to score first in this scenario (which is a 2.70 shot) you can see how it would rarely be value.

from memory i got a touch better than 5/1 just after Liverpool scored at Anfield, but they were down to 10 men at the time which may have impacted on it. That was on betfair
I got 7.8/1 (8.8 on bf) when we went 2 down vs Villa ( i got 25/1 on Villa halftime United fulltime pre game as a banzai)

We've recovered from being behind more often this season than we've scored first and gone on to win (not true, but close) so it feels like the prices might be shorter, but if we go behind in the first half then getting 5/1 would feel right for a bet close to halftime?

[redarmi]

Yes 5/1 would be fine at that point.  Being a man down makes a very big difference though.  If United had a man sent off at and were losing 1-0 their price to win would be 9.60 rather than the 5.80 quoted below although it depends to a degree on who was sent off etc.

[redarmi]

Just a point on all the figures I have quoted they are all based on a basic "average" model so you have to tailor them a bit to the teams involved and the game.  If United have had 10 shots on target and Liverpool have had one that they scored with then obviously United are slightly more likely to come back.  Similarly the fact that United have history of coming back then they are more likely to comeback than the average team but that is balanced by the fact people are more likely to bet them to do so if that all makes sense.

[david3103]

Yes 5/1 would be fine at that point.  Being a man down makes a very big difference though.  If United had a man sent off at and were losing 1-0 their price to win would be 9.60 rather than the 5.80 quoted below although it depends to a degree on who was sent off etc.

thank you - the time you've put into this is really appreciated and as you pointed out earlier probably worth more than any 'value' in the bet

tbh i'm really hoping this debate is redundant and it's 2-0 to United at halftime

[bobby1]

Red will be able to tell you almost bang on Tony but my fag packet price would be around this

The match prices at the moment on BF are

1.94 Man Utd
3.85 Draw
4.3 Liverpool

So if you are asking what price are Man Utd to win if Liverpool take the lead in the 30th minute you need to price up the game as if it is a draw just before Liverpool score. My rough price would be

2.10 Man Utd
3.0 draw
5.25 Liverpool

but in truth it is game dependent, if Liverpool have dominated then they would be a shorter price before they scored, same for Man Utd etc.

If Liverpool then score at 30 mins this is the tricky bit simply because they are playing Man Utd. In a regular game the rule of thumb way to work out the price of the team that just scored is to take the price the other team were before the goal and then bet roughly the opposite side of that price, so Man Utd were 11/10 before Liverpool scored, so the starting price for Liverpool should be around 10/11 but it isn't quite that short in this instance because it's against Man Utd who are more likely to come from 1 down after 30 mins than most teams

So instead of being 10/11 ish Liverpool I would make them about 11/10, the draw would now be bigger so around 23/10 but probably bigger and Man Utd would be about 34/10.

 its a lot of years since I actually did that so it felt a bit rusty but back then it used to be simpler because there was a lot of % in the match prices( the ones I've used above are around 100-101%) and we bet em roughly using the above method so you took more margin for error. We took about 108%+ when betting football in running in the early stages which thankfully most firms now don't. So back then you would really just go, team A were 5/4 before the other team scored so the other team are about 4/7 now ( in those days the opposite prices bookmakers used were 4/7 5/4 and then come back a bit but it's got far more refined now.

So in bookmaking terms instead of

11/10 Liverpool, 23/10 draw and 34/10 Man Utd which is done to just over 100% you might find the firms taking 5 or 6 % and their prices are something like
Evens Liverpool 23/10 draw 3/1 Man Utd ( no need to worry about the draw price because it's usually friendless until later in the games)


I've rambled a bit there but in general if you wanted to have the come from behind bet you are probably just better watching the game and betting the team that go 1 goal behind str8 after the goal.

[bobby1]

oops.it took me so long you have done it already.

[tikay]

oops.it took me so long you have done it already.

Still appreciated Phil, & I'm sure David will think likewise.

Incredible how mechanical it is. All completely new to me of course.

[redarmi]

It is also a massive relief that we came to the same conclusions!!!!

[tikay]

It is also a massive relief that we came to the same conclusions!!!!

Phew.........!

But it IS so mechanical & mathematical, it seems. Honest to God, I would never have dreamed that in a lifetime of punting pre-Fred. There appears to be an equation for almost every bet now.

Do you have equations for football sub-markets such as, say, corners, free kicks, goalkicks & the like or are they match specific?

[redarmi]

It is possible to devise a model of almost anything if you have enough data but to be honest where once this was a very good way of getting ahead of the books these days almost all firms know the basics and some of them are very sophisticated.  If anything I think now that the best way of getting ahead is to understand where that cookie cutter approach falls down and where the assumptions that go into the prices don't work quite as well.  One way to do that is to know the sports/teams better than the bookies do.  A good example of this would be first goalscorer bets.  Normally firms price these up fairly well but if you know the normal penalty taker is injured and can figure out who will take the penalties then you will probably have an advantage because the firms will make them the same price as they do every week based on their "model" when really they should be adding 2-3% to the underlying probabilities.

 Specifically in regards to the other markets like corners, free kicks etc I would think that they are less likely to be priced based on models just because it is expensive and time consuming to come up with models and those markets are not as lucrative so whilst there is almost certainly some basic rudimentary probability models involved they won't be as sophisticated and would probably be profitable for someone willing to devote the time.  NC or Keith will know more about this guy but I seem to remember that in the late nineties there was a guy called, I think, Bert something who specialised in bookings with the spread firms in particular and who made a very decent annual wage from betting on them.  If I recall correctly he was the first one to understand how important referees were to this market.