Tips for Tikay

[Snowball]

Great minds etc.....I been thinking how I can take advantage of all of this....Not sure I love Boro bet as much as I did but seems to have affected both teams equally really.

Moneys now coming for Goals.
Just realised Barry Robson has left Boro for America in the Summer, he would have been first name on the team sheet tonight.

[rfgqqabc]

Assuming we play New England in the Superbowl, I think that game is a flip.

I'd rather sit tight and then have an even monkey on the Pats in the final.

Again, I don't want anyone shouting at me if we lose on Sunday - I almost guarantee I will have lost more in money and equity than you have, so I really won't want to hear it - so everyone should do what is comfortable for them.

Followed you throughout and will continue to do so. Really interesting debate about greening out. And I'm sure Tikay could have a few people bet with Stan for him - might be a bit awkward for asap bets but for anything with a days notice should be easy. Obviously those people might have to consider accounts being closed...

[tikay]

I don't have any figures but would be surprised if backing every horse that hits 1.3 IR to level stakes would show a profit in the long term. A lot of horses go odds-on IR and don't win.

so laying off at 1.3 is in effect a winning bet, you are letting someone bet at 1.3 with you and not only do you not have a liability with the bet, you win money.

I do have some figures


16184 horses started at an sp of greater than 2 and were <1.3 at some point in running

12966 of these won so you would pay out 3889 and take in 3218.  Thats a big loss even before commission.

Probably not a good idea then...

I hereby give permission for the Rylan bet to be greened up upon as long as Mr Camel and Mr B.Beat say it's ok.

Mr Chomps......

My head is spinning here, & I have no idea if you are messing, or serious about that.

Lord Channing is, to the best of my knowledge, on a jet 'plane to Australia, & has been since late last night, so I assume his Posts today were from a stopover somewhere, but we cannot assume he will be on Fred anytime soon.

Mr Camel, however, is very much here, & having a whale of an afternoon with all this Greening talk, & hopefully he or reds (or Mr Galloway) will have a view on the Redding debate.

Mr Camel would rather be in Australia tbf.

Hopefully Mr Kaepernick will keep me warm this weekend.

Are we still sitting tight on our 49-ers bet Keith?

I am, but the price is moving slowly but surely to the correct level imo.

Should have got more on at 3.7ish in the immediate aftermath of last weeks game!

Don't think you'd be doing much wrong to get out at 3.1 actually.

If it dips below 3, I might take some profit.

Thanks Keith.

Please remember you own the Fred Bet, so we will do so only if & when you say the word.

If my maths are correct, getting out at 3.1 would mean we would have £250 at an average of approx 7, minus £250 at 3.1, so 3.9 points (minus comish) profit @ £250 per point. Is that correct?

So we would have left £750 on the Table in exchange for locking up a grand?

Is that the equation?

God, I hope you didn't do the accounts when you had to work for a living.

I've read that 6 times and I'm still not 100% sure I understand it!

We've had £250 on, that much I know.

In your betty account, how much does that show us winning?

If you have 250 at 7 and want to green out totally at 3.1 you should lay to a stake of £564.  This guarantees a profit of about 316 whether you win or lose.

God, that seems like we have assumed an awful lot of risk for a very paltry return!

Totally unappealing to me.

Amen to that!

[Simon Galloway]

IF

Ravens somehow did us a favour and just edged out Pats in an ugly game, SF may be what, 5pt favs, maybe a full TD?  Now the extra dimension to greening out on hcap betting comes into play, where we can green out, but also play the middle.  How big a middle would it take for people to be sorely tempted?

[Tal]

i see you are getting the odd account closed tony. I advised a while ago to stick to one or two bookies and they will be nice to you if you arent always on at the best industry price

Think this is potentially a much more interesting debate than the greening out one.  IIRC Fred is currently making roughly 1% on turnover so any reduction in prices might turn them into a losing punter.  I must confess this happened to me for a while in the early 2000's.  From 1998 until about 2001 I generally had access to all the accounts i wanted and was able to get on with almost every firm and I cleaned up but then I started getting restricted and was forced to place some of my bets at less than best market price but I thought I had the game sussed and would be alright.  I didn't wasn't and for the next year or two I lost like 2% on turnover whilst I didn't do anything to fix some life leaks I had and I went skint and had to re-evaluate my entire approach and the way i thought about the game.  Now I use a variety of ways to get on and do give a lot of my business to a handful of firms and certainly give away some equity because of it but I am never quite sure if my approach is the best one and it is an approach borne out of neccesity.  If I could bet with Sky, , Boyles etc in my own name I almost certainly would I think and I would only be taking top prices because accounts at those firms just don't last long enough to sacrifice the equity.  Did you have any firms in mind Trigg?  One firm I wish I had dealt with a bit differently is 365 and I would give my left arm for an account there these days.

As a left-hander, not sure I'd pay that price, but yes, I much regret being able to punt with Bet365, they offer such an array of markets.

Didn't realise you were sinister, Tikay..?

[The Camel]

IF

Ravens somehow did us a favour and just edged out Pats in an ugly game, SF may be what, 5pt favs?  Now the extra dimension to greening out on hcap betting comes into play, where we can green out, but also play the middle.  How big a middle would it take for people to be sorely tempted?

Obviously depends on what happens in the two Conf Championship matches, but I can't see many or any scenarios where SF would be less than 7 point favourites.

Playing on the handicap would mean commision and/or juice twice, whereas just closing out all or a portion of our outright bet means winning less and paying less commish.

Let's cross that bridge if and when we come to it.

[The Camel]

i see you are getting the odd account closed tony. I advised a while ago to stick to one or two bookies and they will be nice to you if you arent always on at the best industry price

Think this is potentially a much more interesting debate than the greening out one.  IIRC Fred is currently making roughly 1% on turnover so any reduction in prices might turn them into a losing punter.  I must confess this happened to me for a while in the early 2000's.  From 1998 until about 2001 I generally had access to all the accounts i wanted and was able to get on with almost every firm and I cleaned up but then I started getting restricted and was forced to place some of my bets at less than best market price but I thought I had the game sussed and would be alright.  I didn't wasn't and for the next year or two I lost like 2% on turnover whilst I didn't do anything to fix some life leaks I had and I went skint and had to re-evaluate my entire approach and the way i thought about the game.  Now I use a variety of ways to get on and do give a lot of my business to a handful of firms and certainly give away some equity because of it but I am never quite sure if my approach is the best one and it is an approach borne out of neccesity.  If I could bet with Sky, , Boyles etc in my own name I almost certainly would I think and I would only be taking top prices because accounts at those firms just don't last long enough to sacrifice the equity.  Did you have any firms in mind Trigg?  One firm I wish I had dealt with a bit differently is 365 and I would give my left arm for an account there these days.

As a left-hander, not sure I'd pay that price, but yes, I much regret being able to punt with Bet365, they offer such an array of markets.

Didn't realise you were sinister, Tikay..?

I'd give my right arm to be ambidextrous.

[tikay]

Assuming we play New England in the Superbowl, I think that game is a flip.

I'd rather sit tight and then have an even monkey on the Pats in the final.

Again, I don't want anyone shouting at me if we lose on Sunday - I almost guarantee I will have lost more in money and equity than you have, so I really won't want to hear it - so everyone should do what is comfortable for them.

That would never be condoned here, the thread does not work that way, we all make our own beds.

It is what it is, win or lose.

A bumpy road is all part of the fun.

[Tal]

Do they have under soil heating?

yes

pitch is green as a green thing

The groundsman has been using a leaf blower on the pitch. Now that's innovative.

[DungBeetle]

A random question - does undersoil heating stay on during the match.  Or is it only deployed pre-match or at halftime?

[DungBeetle]

Anyhow - 2 goals for Wood for my icecream spreadie please!

[TightEnd]

A random question - does undersoil heating stay on during the match.  Or is it only deployed pre-match or at halftime?

off once it starts, stays off

and will be treacherous later

[Tal]

Everton was the first top flight team in England to have it installed, in 1958:

Click to see full-size image.

[DungBeetle]

Tighty - you are a font of knowledge sir.

[Tal]

Any pics of the Leicester polysphere, Tighty?