Ha!
Attaboy, Milli, it's all good fun.
Hope you get the lot on Sunday.
Pardon me asking, but have you hedged or saved on the game?
I have a hunch you are going to go for it, balls out, do or die, the lot or nothing!
Fred still has that decision to make, or more correctly, how best to do it.
I backed niners preseason @ 20/1 and i'm not hedging at all. i'm a bit puzzled why camel is favouring doing that after saying that he would expect niners to be 1/3 if baltimore got the W. I defo thought theyd be sub 1.5 and cant advise myself to be putting money anywhere near the ravens as they are.
its been a great ride, and i'm just not ready to leave my seat yet.
up the niners.
It's a fair question to ask.
And there are multiple reasons.
1/3 was my "off the top of my head" price before the Conference Championships.
Having looked at the game more thoroughly, I wouldn't make it anything like as short as that.
While Smith, Boldin and Jacoby Jones are no White and Julio, the matchup against the 49ers secondary scares me quite a lot.
Julio got deep and open countless times against the niners secondary. While Jacoby and Smith haven't got the skill or hands of Julio Jones, they are, if anything even quicker than him.
Whitner and Goldson are great at laying the massive hits against tight ends and possesion receivers. But they were about as much use as a chocolate teacup about getting across to help the corners deep against speed threats.
Can the Niners stop the threat at source by getting to Flacco? Normally yes. I like the matchup of Aldon Smith against Bryant McKinnie who is old and slow in pass protection. But I quite clearly saw Justin Smith try and tackle Turner with one arm last week when it was a clear wrap tackle sort of play. I think he is playing at 50% of his true ability with his arm injury. Justin usually is double teamed every pass play by the opposition, but I think the Ravens will be able to take him on one on one, which will allow the Ravens to slide a guard across to help McKinnie v Aldon. The Niners might well try blitzing more than usual (they hardly ever blitz) but Rice and Pitta are dangerous open fields runners to risk using Willis and Bowman on the blitz rather than staying in coverage.
The other worry about the matchup is how well the Ravens are suddenly playing against the run. The haven't allowed a 100 yard rusher in the 3 playoff matches. Including when playing for over 5 quarters against the Broncos!
I think the Ravens will sell out against the run and make the Niners beat them through the air.
While I have every confidence (obviously) in Kaepernick, I worry about the receivers. Walker drops more than he catches, Moss is a light of yesteryear and Crabtree although ok, is nowhere near the top 20 wrs in the league. I was hoping AJ Jenkins would step up when Mannigham got injured, but the fact Harbaugh put Ted fkin Ginn in the linep for 3 wr sets is all you need to know about how little he trusts Jenkins.
I speak to 4 guys regularly about NFL, all are pros and significant winners on the sport. 2 have no real opinion in the Superbowl and will be sticking to playing props. 1 has bet Baltimore +4.5 as a value play, because he thought the line should be 3.5. The final one, (and probably the guy whose opinion I respect the most) has played Baltimore 4.5 and mostly +4. He loves them in this spot.
So all in all, where does all this leave me? I probably would make SF 4 point favs.
So why I am hedging?
I am as skint as I have been since I quit work. I make the game a coinflip at 4. Do I really want to risk having to look for a job if the coin lands on the wrong side?
It may well be ice cream punting, but I have a pretty large sum at stake on Sunday night. I fancied them strongly and thought they were value against GB and Atlanta and was never tempted to hedge.
In this game I think it could be really close. So I hedged when I saw the +4 was disappearing fast.
Cliffs.
I may be giving up a couple of % points in equity, but I'd rather do that than be stacking shelves in Tesco next week.
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